Spot Bitcoin ETF approval to propel BTC to $1M in ‘days to weeks,’ says Samson Mow

December 15, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Spot Bitcoin ETF: Why this time is different

November 21, 2023 Coin Telegraph

The latest Cointelegraph Report explains everything you need to know about a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S., its impact on the market, and its significance for the crypto industry.

A wave of optimism around the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has ignited bullish price action in the crypto market in recent weeks.

But that could be just the beginning: If a spot Bitcoin ETF receives a greenlight by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it would mark a major milestone in the history of digital assets.

The spot Bitcoin ETF will provide institutional investors with a simple and regulated way to get exposure to Bitcoin with potentially explosive consequences for the Bitcoin market.

According to many analysts, a spot Bitcoin ETF could spark a demand shock that, coupled with next year's Bitcoin halving event, could spark the new crypto bull market.

The SEC has so far rejected all spot Bitcoin ETF applications, but two main factors make the current batch of applications different.

One is the involvement of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, which filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this year.

The second is the court ruling that required the SEC to revisit a previous rejection of Grayscale’s application for a spot Bitcoin ETF application, defining the regulator's process as "arbitrary and capricious."

“The Grayscale decision ultimately says that you can't allow Bitcoin futures ETFs to trade, and then argue that the same situation is not for spot Bitcoin ETF," said James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

That is why, according to Seyffart, the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by early January are 90%.

To understand why a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is a big deal and its potential impact on the market, check out the full Cointelegraph Report on our YouTube channel, and don’t forget to subscribe!

Bitcoin’s cycles are changing — Bloomberg analyst Jamie Coutts explains how and why

September 14, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Analysis

This week’s episode of Market Talks discusses how Bitcoin cycles are changing and how it could impact the upcoming halving.

In the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s Market Talks, host Ray Salmond speaks with Jamie Coutts, a chartered market technician and crypto market analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

When asked whether Bitcoin’s (BTC) pre- and post-halving price action could differ from previous cycles due to a change in global monetary policy, Coutts said:

“I’ve been writing about this for most of the year. We do have some strong fundamentals in the space, but ultimately, what drives risk assets is liquidity. The longer that we have this tightening cycle, and if we start to see an uptick in unemployment and more stress in the banking sector, then there could be a bit more pain for risk assets like Bitcoin.”

Despite the dim macroeconomic outlook, Coutts did suggest:

“We could be near the end. There is still a lot of underlying stress in the U.S. banking system and other areas of the economy. I think this is somewhat different to any other Bitcoin cycle that we’ve seen, but ultimately, people will need to keep in mind that we are living in a fiat and credit-money-based money system, and inevitably, there will need to be a return to some form of easing because essentially the system cannot handle long periods of deflation. So, it is still Bitcoin, and to some degree, crypto assets that have control of their inflation schedules that will do well when things start to resume.”

To hear more about Coutt’s views on the macro, Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins and stablecoins, tune in to the full episode of Market Talks on the new Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel. Also, don’t forget to click “Like” and “Subscribe” to keep up-to-date with all our latest content.

Bitcoin at $25K: Discount or disaster?

September 13, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Analysis

This week, The Market Report discusses Bitcoin’s recent dip below $25,000 and what it means for the near future. Was it a discount or a disaster?

In the latest episode of The Market Report, Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman delves into Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest bounce at $25,000, which some analysts and influencers argue represents a short-term buying opportunity. Pechman explains that Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index has only held for 40% of the previous 20 months, meaning it is likely not a good metric to anticipate price movements.

The show then shifts focus to a recent Glassnode report revealing that the amount of BTC changing hands is at its lowest since October 2020, citing investors’ “apathy” and “exhaustion.” Pechman argues that bulls got tired after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s relentless action to pursue Coinbase and Binance. Ultimately, Pechman disagrees that Bitcoin’s recent movement to $25,000 presents an opportunity for buyers, given that the short-term risk-reward ratio near the current price level is around 50:50.

For the show’s next segment, Pechman analyzes the prediction made by Davis Hui, vice president of Bitcoin miner Canaan, that BTC will hit $100,000 in 2024 based on the halving and a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. First, Pechman explains that BlackRock’s $10 trillion in assets is merely a mirage, as 55% is stuck in fixed-income investments and $2.8 trillion is already invested in other ETFs such as commodities, the S&P 500 index, global emerging markets and alternative investments.

Furthermore, Pechman raises the risk of current holders deciding to flip their positions previously bought at $60,000, $50,000 or even $40,000 if Bitcoin’s price were to shoot up, meaning the offer side is never predictable regardless of miners’ incentives. Lastly, Pechman explains that a spot Bitcoin ETF has been a dream for the past eight years, and nothing has changed to refute the SEC’s reasons for dismissal, namely stablecoin trading volumes and unregulated offshore exchanges.

Check out the latest episode of The Market Report, available exclusively on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.

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This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Here’s why Bitcoin will hit $22K soon

September 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Arthur Hayes

This week, The Market Report discusses why $22,000 is the next logical step for Bitcoin and why BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes claims the bull market started back in March.

In the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s The Market Report, analyst Marcel Pechman explores the drivers that point to Bitcoin heading to $22,000, with investor sentiment worsening after Grayscale Investment’s much-hyped legal victory against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Aug. 29 and its postponement of multiple spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund applications.

According to Pechman, on the side of the bears are multiple lawsuits from the SEC against Binance and Coinbase, including a potential indictment from the U.S. Department of Justice regarding money laundering and facilitating trades from Russian entities. But, more importantly, U.S. inflation has come down to 3.2%, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is draining liquidity from the markets.

Pechman also analyzes BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes’s claims that the Bitcoin bull market began in March. Hayes pinpoints the Silicon Valley Bank fallout and the subsequent intervention by the U.S. Treasury Department as the turning points for the crypto market.

Pechman agrees with Hayes but raises the issue of the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar against other major foreign currencies, such as the euro or the Swiss franc, and now sits at the same level as six months prior. Pechman says investors have realized that other countries would likely collapse before the U.S. in the event of a global economic recession.

Ultimately, Pechman believes it doesn’t matter to the Federal Reserve if salvaging the banks could trigger economic turmoil, given that U.S. Treasurys and the U.S. dollar are still considered the safest options.

Listen to the full episode of The Market Report on the new Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel, and don’t forget to click “Like” and “Subscribe” to keep up-to-date with all our latest content.

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When will it be too late to invest in Bitcoin?

August 31, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Analysis

This week’s episode of Market Talks discusses whether it will ever be “too late” to buy Bitcoin and why BTC could take over the financial world.

On the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s Market Talks, host Ray Salmond spoke with Luke Broyles, a popular Bitcoin (BTC) advocate and content creator on YouTube and X (formerly Twitter). During the show, Broyles laid out his Bitcoin investment thesis and his unique perspectives on how the asset’s price could eventually rise into seven-figure territory.

Broyles said that in 2020, he realized the bond market was broken. While searching for alternative investments, he discovered Bitcoin as a sound option. When asked about his Bitcoin investment strategy and how he stomachs the volatility, Broyles said:

“I do not own bonds. I have sold off 97% of my stocks over the past three years, and I’m selling off the last 3% this week actually, so it’s funny that you ask that. By the end of this week, the only three assets that I will own will be U.S. dollars, aka cash, the best political currency in the world; second, real estate; and third, Bitcoin. That’s it. And I sleep better now than I did with a diversified portfolio.”

Everything is overpriced and should crash

Another key factor backing Broyles’ Bitcoin investment thesis is his belief that “everything is overvalued, nothing makes sense, and everything should crash; however, we don’t want to deal with it. Politicians don’t want to deal with it. Lawyers don’t want to deal with it. I, as a real estate investor, don’t want to deal with it.” Broyles believes that stocks, healthcare, real estate and the education industry are highly overvalued, so people are losing faith in the dollar and their dollar purchasing power — which highlights the allure of Bitcoin as a supply-capped asset.

“If we have a credit unwind, of course we’re going to print ourselves out of it.”

When is it too late to invest in Bitcoin?

When asked whether there is a particular price where it becomes “too late” for investors to consider buying Bitcoin, Broyles made the analogy of a sinking ship and suggested that for those on the boat, it’s never too late to exit.

“At no point is it ever too late to buy Bitcoin, but it will be too late to exit bonds and to exit fiat.”

Listen to the full episode of Market Talks on the new Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel, and don’t forget to click “Like” and “Subscribe” to keep up-to-date with all our latest content.

Does high US consumer debt benefit Bitcoin price?

August 25, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Analysis

Cointelegraph analyst and writer Marcel Pechman breaks down consumer debt and why it might lead to a good outcome for BTC.

On the latest episode of Macro Markets, Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman explains why United States consumption remains strong while auto-loan and credit card balance delinquency is accelerating. According to Pechman, consumers built a cushion of extra cash savings as the U.S. government injected money to avoid a recession and temporarily forgave student loan repayments.

But, according to investment bank JPMorgan, “consumers have spent down the entirety of their excess savings from the pandemic, which at one point totaled more than $2 trillion,” as reported by Business Insider. Pechman believes that if JPMorgan’s predictions are correct, the stock market should have been trading much lower. Still, Pechman doesn’t think that betting against the S&P 500 is sound advice, given that inflation is right around the corner and the government will be forced to inject liquidity to avoid a recession.

For the show’s next topic, Pechman dissects the Chinese central bank’s intervention after the yuan hit a 16-year low against the U.S. dollar. For Pechman, the biggest risk is the market doubting the country’s ability to sustain a stronger yuan, meaning betting that the People’s Bank of China’s reserves won’t be enough to sustain the desired level.

In essence, what the Chinese central bank is doing has limits and ultimately is a risky bet, argues Pechman. For now, according to the analyst, there seems to be no imminent risk coming from the yuan, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

For further insights into these matters, tune in to the latest episode of Macro Markets, exclusively available on the newly launched Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.

Here’s what the latest Bitcoin price correction reveals

August 23, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Analysis

The latest episode of The Market Report analyses the recent Bitcoin price correction to $26,000 and what it reveals about the current market structure.

In the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s The Market Report, analyst Marcel Pechman delves into Bitcoin’s recent drop to $26,000. Derivatives market analysis shows Bitcoin (BTC) options and futures metrics lack signs of professional traders going bearish, and while that doesn’t guarantee a quick return to $29,000 support, it reduces the chances of an extended correction.

Pechman presents a Kaiko data chart on BTC liquidity and volatility, which significantly decreased since the FTX collapse in November 2022. And with no liquidity issues or heightened volatility indicated, did the 11.4% mid-August price drop worsen conditions due to the largest futures liquidations since November 2022?

Bitcoin futures premium settled at a neutral 6% after the recent $26,000 crash, signaling balanced demand between leveraged longs and shorts. This aligns with a neutral -7% to 7% BTC options skew, suggesting reasonable downside protection prices.

Reviewing another article, Pechman discusses macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden’s take on a common currency proposal among BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Alden doesn’t see it succeeding — a view shared by Pechman. However, Alden notes a weakened United States dollar if BRICS use their own currencies for foreign trade, giving unconventional advice to crypto investors.

China facing deflation may be bad news for Bitcoin

August 19, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Analysis

Cointelegraph analyst and writer Marcel Pechman breaks down the Federal Reserve balance sheet and explains why China’s deflation can negatively impact Bitcoin.

On the latest episode of Macro Markets, analyst Marcel Pechman explains the impacts of the United States Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, breaking down how the Fed inflated its assets by $5 trillion between December 2019 and April 2022. Pechman notes that the expansion period coincides with a 38% crash in the S&P 500 index. Moreover, the Federal Reserve balance sheet surpassed the $8.9 trillion mark right as the stock market index reached its 4,800-point all-time high.

The problem, according to Pechman, is that the U.S. Treasury Department has a huge deficit, as the government spends more than it gets from revenues and taxes. Consequently, it needs to start rolling some of the debt instead of letting it expire, so odds are it won’t be able to continue reducing the balance sheet any longer — something that has been a huge contributor to lowering inflation.

Ultimately, inflation will feel the biggest impact once the Federal Reserve is forced to expand its balance sheet again, Pechman argues. He advises that those holding scarce assets such as Apple shares, land, gold and Bitcoin (BTC) should hang on tight and not be fooled by the momentary period of reduced inflation.

In the show’s next segment, Pechman covers deflation in China, which economists believe is an issue. Domestic consumption is decreasing, and it seems investors expect a miracle from their central bank’s expansion of the balance sheet.

In essence, Pechman argues there are many red flags coming from China. If you want to know whether Pechman believes this is a risk for international economies and what will happen to stock markets and Bitcoin, watch the latest episode of Macro Marke on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.

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Spot Bitcoin ETF approved, but not in the US

August 16, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Analysis

This week’s episode of The Market Report discusses the spot Bitcoin ETF that just launched in Europe and why the U.S. still lags behind.

In the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s The Market Report, analyst Marcel Pechman discusses the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approved in the European Union, which went live on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange on Aug. 15. Despite the seemingly unconventional choice of the Guernsey regulator for its constitution, the fund’s listing on Euronext suggests a strategic maneuver, though its meager 1 million euro launch and unfamiliar management casts a shadow over its appeal.

Moving on, Pechman shifts focus to the United States Bitcoin ETF landscape, where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again delayed its decision on approving a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, setting a potential deadline for early 2024. This recurrent cycle of postponements echoes the challenges faced over the past decade.

The lack of regulatory clarity in the U.S. cryptocurrency market underscores the SEC’s reluctance to endorse a spot crypto ETF.

Pechman also discusses Bitcoin’s price trajectory. According to Bitcoin investor Jesse Myers, breaking the $100,000 barrier is intricately tied to the block subsidy halving in mid-2024. Myers challenges the efficient market hypothesis, positing that the market will take 12 to 18 months post-halving to fully assimilate the implications.

Pechman conveys skepticism about predicting market outcomes, acknowledging many factors that can sway Bitcoin’s trajectory, including Federal Reserve decisions, banking liquidity, economic conditions and unforeseen events.

Pechman concludes by circling back to the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s value: the abundance of fiat currency and government debt. He foresees Bitcoin surpassing $100,000, but the real-world purchasing power of that sum might be diminished due to inflation.

Bitcoin Analysis

Everything is overpriced and should crash

When is it too late to invest in Bitcoin?

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