1. Home
  2. Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin price analysis

Price analysis 3/15: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, SOL, DOT, SHIB

Credit Suisse has pulled the U.S. equities markets lower, but a positive sign is that Bitcoin and select altcoins are holding near their local highs.

The United States equities markets tumbled on March 15 after Saudi National Bank, Swiss Bank Credit Suisse’s largest investor, said it will not be able to provide any more funding to Credit Suisse due to regulatory limitations.

Investors are nervous because Credit Suisse, which has large U.S. and global operations, warned on March 14 that it had found “certain material weaknesses” in its financial reporting processes for 2021 and 2022. Shares of Credit Suisse plummeted to an all-time low on March 15.

After the events of the past few days, the S&P 500 has given back all its gains for the year and is trading flat. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) is holding on to a large part of its gains and is up nearly 47% in 2023.

Trezor Bitcoin analyst Josef Tětek believes the banking crisis could be positive for Bitcoin as it could emerge as a safe haven asset.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Capriole CEO and founder Charles Edwards said that Bitcoin has formed a “bump and run reversal pattern,” which has a target objective of $100,000 and higher. However, Edwards cautioned traders that the pattern could fail, hence it should not be used for building a trading or investment plan.

Could Bitcoin and the altcoins rise above their overhead resistance levels and start the next leg of the up-move? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

The bulls propelled Bitcoin above the overhead resistance of $25,250 on March 14 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are not ready to surrender without a fight. Strong selling pulled the price back below $25,250.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day exponential moving average ($23,012) has started to turn up and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the positive territory, indicating advantage to buyers.

If the bulls do not give up much ground from the current level, the possibility of a break and close above $25,250 increases. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair will complete a bullish inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. That will signal a potential trend change. The pair may then sprint toward $32,000.

If bears want to slow down the bullish momentum, they will have to quickly pull the price back below the moving averages.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) soared above the overhead resistance at $1,743 on March 14 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are trying to protect the level.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price consolidates between $1,743 and the 20-day EMA ($1,588), it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. That will improve the prospects of a break and close above $1,743. The ETH/USDT pair is then well-positioned for a strong rally toward the psychological level of $2,000.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will indicate that the ETH/USDT pair may consolidate in a large range between $1,743 and $1,352 for some time.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) turned down from the strong resistance near $318. This suggests that the bears are trying to defend the zone between $318 and $338.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A minor positive in favor of the buyers is that they have not allowed the price to break back below the 50-day simple moving average ($306). The shallow pullback shows that every minor dip is being purchased.

The bulls will make one more attempt to catapult the price above the overhead zone. If they do that, the BNB/USDT pair can soar toward $400. Contrarily, if the price breaks below the 50-day SMA, the pair may slide to the 20-day EMA ($296). A break below this level will signal advantage to bears.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($0.38) and formed a Doji candlestick pattern on March 14, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The uncertainty resolved to the downside on March 15 and the price has slipped to the strong support at $0.36. If this level is taken out, the XRP/USDT pair could decline to the support line of the channel near $0.32.

On the other hand, if the price stays above $0.36, the bulls will again try to overcome the obstacle at the 50-day SMA and $0.40. If they can pull it off, the pair may pick up momentum and climb to $0.43.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) accelerated on March 14 and reached the 50-day SMA ($0.36) but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that the bears are aggressively selling on rallies.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears have tugged the price back below the 20-day EMA ($0.34) on March 15, which has cleared the path for a possible retest of $0.30. Buyers are likely to protect this level with all their might because the next support is way lower at $0.27.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds from the current level or $0.30, it will suggest that traders are buying on dips. That may keep the ADA/USDT pair range-bound between the 50-day SMA and $0.50 for a few days.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery has reached the downtrend line where the bears are mounting a strong resistance.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.07) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears are in control. Sellers are trying to yank the price below the immediate support at $0.07. If this support collapses, the DOGE/USDT pair may descend to $0.06.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the current level, it will suggest that lower levels are attracting buyers. The downtrend line remains the key level on the upside because a break above it could start a relief rally to $0.10.

Polygon price analysis

Polygon’s (MATIC) relief rally is facing stiff resistance at the 50-day SMA ($1.22). That has pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($1.16) on March 15.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The MATIC/USDT pair could plummet to the strong support at $1.05. This is an important level to watch out for because if it cracks, the pair may retest the $0.94 support. A break below this level will open the gates for a potential drop to $0.69.

Another possibility is that the price rebounds off the $1.05 support. If that happens, the bulls will again try to drive the price above the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the likelihood of a break above $1.30 increases.

Related: 4 signs the Bitcoin price rally could top out at $26K for now

Solana price analysis

The bears are trying to halt Solana’s (SOL) rally at the 50-day SMA ($22.40) but the bulls are trying to keep the price above the immediate support at $19.68.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This suggests that the bulls will again try to push the price to the downtrend line. This is a vital resistance to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will signal a potential trend change. There is a minor resistance at $28 but it is likely to be crossed. The SOL/USDT pair may then surge toward $39.

Instead, if the price continues lower and falls below $19.68, it will suggest that the bears have not yet given up. The pair may then slump to the strong support at $15.28.

Polkadot price analysis

Buyers tried to drive Polkadot (DOT) above the 50-day SMA ($6.42) on March 14 but the bears did not relent. This suggests that higher levels are attracting sellers.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint indicating a status of equilibrium between the bulls and the bears. If the price breaks and sustains below the 20-day EMA ($6.07), the DOT/USDT pair may swing between the 50-day SMA and $5 for a few days.

If buyers kick the price above the 50-day SMA, the pair could pick up momentum and soar toward the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern. On the downside, the bears will have to sink the pair below $5 to indicate a comeback.

Shiba Inu price analysis

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is trading inside a descending channel pattern. The bulls tried to push the price above the channel but the bears held their ground.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will again try to pull the price below the psychological support at $0.000010. If they manage to do that, the SHIB/USDT pair could fall toward the support line of the channel. The bulls are likely to defend the $0.000008 to $0.000007 zone with all their might.

If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that the pair may consolidate inside the large range between $0.000018 and $0.000007 for some more time.

In the near term, a break above the 50-day SMA ($0.000012) will tilt the advantage in favor of the bulls. The pair could then attempt a rally to $0.000014 and then to $0.000016.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Venture capitalists bail on Zipmex bailout, company warns of consequences: Report

Bitcoin’s $100K price target returns as BTC price breaks out of bull pennant

The bullish analogy appears as Bitcoin reserves across all the crypto exchanges fall to their lowest in the previous 12 months, suggesting holding sentiment among traders.

Bitcoin (BTC) looks poised to pursue a run-up towards $100,000 as its price breaks out of a classic bullish structure.

Dubbed as Bull Pennant, the setup represents a price consolidation period with converging trendlines that form after a strong move higher. It ultimately prompts the price to break out in the direction of its previous trend to a level typically at length higher by as much as the size of the initial large move.

On Bitcoin weekly charts, the cryptocurrency appeared to have been trending inside a similar consolidation structure, with its price fluctuating inside a Triangle-like structure following a strong move higher (Flagpole).

BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring Bull Pennant setup. Source: TradingView.com

Last week, Bitcoin broke above the structure's upper trendline as it rose by 13.5% with rising trading volumes to boot. As a result, the cryptocurrency's breakout move indicated its potential to rise by as much as the size of its previous trend (nearly $50,000).

Measuring from the point of breakout (~$48,200), the Bull Pennant's upside target thereby comes out to be another $50,000 higher, i.e., almost $100,000.

Other predictions

The technical setup projected Bitcoin at $100,000 no longer after many analysts envisioned the cryptocurrency at the same, six-digital valuation.

A team of researchers at Standard Chartered, headed by its global head of emerging market currency research, Geoffrey Kendrick, predicted BTC to hit $100,000 by early next year. They cited Bitcoin's potential to become "the dominant peer-to-peer payment method for the global unbanked" behind their bullish prediction.

David Gokhshtein, the founder of Gokhshtein Media and PAC Global, also imagined Bitcoin above $100,000 before the end of 2021. The executive based his bullish outlook on the amount of available fiat liquidity in the market, which, according to him, has prompted leading Wall Street players to purchase Bitcoin.

"Not everybody's going to come out publicly and tell you that they're buying bitcoin, but they are," Gokhshtein told Business Insider.

"There's too much money in the market. Way too much money. Institutions did not come in here to play for five minutes."

His statements appeared after George Soros' investment firm revealed at a Bloomberg event that it owns Bitcoin, sending the cryptocurrency spiking. That soon followed up with JPMorgan & Chase's latest report that showed institutional investors' preference for Bitcoin over Gold as an inflation hedge.

In an earlier study published in May, the banking giant projected Bitcoin to reach $140,000 in the long term.

Holding sentiment on rise

On-chain indicators highlighted a rise in holding sentiment among Bitcoin traders.

Related: Tesla may have made more money holding Bitcoin than selling cars

In detail, the Bitcoin reserves held across all crypto exchanges recently dropped to their lowest levels in a year, as per data provided by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The decline illustrated traders' intention to hold their Bitcoin tokens close than trading them for other fiat/digital assets.

BTC reserves across all exchanges. Source: TradingView.com

Therefore, declining Bitcoin balances on exchanges typically follow up with rise in the BTC price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Venture capitalists bail on Zipmex bailout, company warns of consequences: Report

Here’s why Bitcoin mining stocks have been outperforming BTC price in 2021

One of the crypto mining stocks delivered more than 1,600% returns year-over-year (YoY) while Bitcoin's gains in the same period came out to be around 290%.

Bitcoin (BTC) might have outperformed traditional financial markets regarding investment returns, but the cryptocurrency still fell behind Bitcoin-related companies.

The price of BTC climbed by about 290% year-over-year, wherein it surged from $10,695 to a little over $42,000. In comparison, shares of Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), one of the largest North American crypto mining companies, rose by 1,641% in the same period.

MARA stock weekly price chart. Source: TradingView.com

Institutions-led pump

More crypto mining firms outran spot BTC prices in terms of YoY returns. For instance, Canada-based Bitfarms (BITF) surged 1,736%, while Hut 8 Mining (HUT) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) rallied by 1,010% and 913% in a year.

The performance of spot Bitcoin versus crypto-focused stocks in a year. Source: Ecoinometrics

Nick, the founder of Ecoinometrics, a crypto-focused newsletter service, called mining stocks an "obvious pick," noting that they gave institutional investors indirect exposure to Bitcoin markets. 

"I bet a lot of institutional investors haven't yet dipped their toes in trading spot BTC, mostly for compliance reasons," the analyst explained in an article published Sept. 27, adding:

"It is a bit like the gold miners when back in the days it was complicated to get your hands on physical gold. So the play for these guys has probably been, stay away from spot but trade the stocks."

The statements surfaced as Morgan Stanley reported in its securities filings that it had more than doubled its exposure in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a traditional investment vehicle for digital asset investors.

In detail, the Morgan Stanley Europe Opportunity Fund owned 58,116 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, or GBTC, as of July 31.

In July, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest also purchased more than 450,000 GBTC shares worth about $1.4 million. In line with mining stock performances, these investments showed an increase in institutional appetite for crypto-focused yet traditional investment products.

Nick added that investors would keep adding their capital into crypto mining stocks as long as they don't see a viable alternative, such as an exchange-traded fund in the U.S.

Scaling and hodling

Demand for mining stocks grows higher as a majority of firms focus on two important prospects: scaling and holding.

For instance, Marathon reported in its non-audited August report that it had received 21,584 top-tier Bitcoin mining ASIC machines from Bitmain in 2021, adding that it is due to get 5,916 more currently in transit. As a result, the company expects to run at least 133,000 Bitcoin mining machines by the middle of next year.

Meanwhile, Marathon noted that it now holds 6,695 BTC, including the 4,812.66 BTC it purchased in Jan 2021. As a result, the fair market value of Marathon’s current bitcoin holdings is now around $333.4 million, giving the firm adequate capital to scale up its productions in the future. 

Similarly, Riot Blockchain's August report showed a 451% increase in its Bitcoin mining capacity on a year-over-year basis, helped by its fleet of 22,050 miners, with a hash rate capacity of 2.2 exahash per second (EH/s). The firm mined 441 BTC in Aug 2021.

Related: Miners have accumulated $600M worth of Bitcoin since Feb

Riot noted that it plans to have 25,650 Bitmain machines in operation by early September. It is currently building a new mining facility in Texas.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Venture capitalists bail on Zipmex bailout, company warns of consequences: Report

Bearish Bitcoin fractal with 78% success rate flashes as BTC drops below $43.5K

The flagship cryptocurrency closed the previous week below its 21-week exponential moving average for the 19th time in history, triggering additional selloff risks.

Last week's drop in Bitcoin (BTC) that saw BTC price falling from $47,358 to $43,178 has sparked fears of an extended selloff.

Independent market analyst Nunya Bizniz highlighted a bearish fractal on Bitcoin's weekly charts concerning its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).

In detail, the cryptocurrency has closed below the said support zone 18 times to date but retained its previous bullish bias only four times out of all—as shown by the dotted vertical lines in the chart below.

BTC/USD daily price chart featuring its 21-week EMA. Source: Nunya Bizniz, TradingView.com

In the remaining cases, a close below the 21-week EMA led Bitcoin prices extremely lower, barring a fake bearish breakout in August 2015 that soon resulted in a "tremendous bull run," as the analyst noted.

Similarly, Bitcoin's recent break below the wave in May 2021 also crashed prices below $30,000 for the first time since Jan 2021. Nevertheless, the crossover did not result in a full-fledged bearish breakdown; traders bought the dip near $30,000 and led the prices back above $50,000.

But overall, the phenomenon of Bitcoin prices breaking below 21-week EMA caused extended selloff almost 78% of all times.

Bitcoin slips below 21-week EMA, again

Bitcoin closed the week ending on Sept. 26 at $43,178, alerting about its 19th historical decline below the 21-week EMA—which was around $43,502 at the weekly close.

While the fractals envisioned a downside outcome, a close look at the relationship between the 21-week EMA and 50-week simple moving average (SMA)—as shown in the chart below—noted that a potential bearish outlook would need further validation.

That is primarily because of traders' immediate reaction to the two moving averages, especially when the 20-week EMA (the green wave) closes below the 50-week SMA (the blue wave). The so-called Death Cross indicator has previously coincided with further declines in the Bitcoin market. 

Bitcoin price weekly chart featuring 20-50-MA death cross. Source: TradingView.com

For instance, the BTC/USD exchange rate slipped below its 21-week EMA (~$8,041) in the week ending on Jan. 29, 2018, but retained its upside bias until the green wave closed below the blue one. Later, the pair bottomed out near its 200-week SMA (near $3,187).

Similarly, the 20-50 MA death cross in March 2020 came only a week ahead of the infamous Covid-19 selloff, led by the Covid-19 led global market crash. Again, Bitcoin ended up closing near its 200-week SMA (~$5,512), only to bounce back toward new record highs in the sessions later.

Related: JPMorgan CEO says Bitcoin price could rise 10x but still won’t buy it

Therefore, it appears that Bitcoin's potential death cross between its 20-week EMA and 50-week SMA could trigger the next selloff crisis with the ultimate downside target sitting near the 200-week SMA (around $16,000).

At the same time, the Fibonacci retracement levels near $34,712 and $27,580 could keep the Bitcoin prices from getting toward the 200-week SMA. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Venture capitalists bail on Zipmex bailout, company warns of consequences: Report

Bitcoin ‘heavy breakout’ fractal suggests BTC price can hit $250-$350K in 2021

The analogy appeared in anticipation that Bitcoin could post a 2017-like bull run, in which the price rose by more than 1,900%.

Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to push its prices to between $250,000 and $350,000 by the end of 2021, a long-standing fractal suggests.

First spotted by pseudonymous analyst Bit Harington, the bullish setup drew its inspirations from Bitcoin's secular bull runs every time after halvings when the miner block reward gets cut in half. Analysts perceive the halving as a bullish event, which reduced the supply of newly mined BTC. 

Harington reminded that Bitcoin's prices surged by more than 600% after the first two halving events in 2012 and 2016 when measured from a so-called resistance/support (R/S) line, as shown in the chart below.

Bitcoin price performance after the first two halving events. Source: BuyBitcoinWorldWide, PlanB, and Bit Harington

The line represented a barrier during the period of price uptrend. Traders tested it for a breakout multiple times before successfully breaching it to log a new record high. When prices started correcting, they eventually bottomed out near the same line.

In 2020-2021, Bitcoin underwent a similar upside trajectory, bouncing from below $4,000 to rising to above $60,000. Again, Harington highlighted the $60,000-level as the same R/S line that kept trades from logging a clear bullish breakout.

The analyst hinted that Bitcoin would break above it to soar towards a new record price level.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe reacted to Harington's fractal theory, adding that it would lead the Bitcoin prices to the $250,000-$350,000 range.

He noted, however, that the massive run-up could also prompt a brutal correction that can push Bitcoin prices back toward $65,000, right near the Harington's S/R level of $60,000.

Do fundamentals agree?

Bitcoin skyrocketed after crashing below $4,000 in March 2020 primarily due to the global central banks' loose monetary policies to curb the economic aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. The cryptocurrency closed the year at around $30,000, as retail and institutional investors woke up to its safe-haven narrative against a falling U.S. dollar and rising inflation fears.

So far in 2021, the price of Bitcoin topped around $65,000 before correcting lower below $50,000. At its year-to-date (YTD) low, the pair traded for $29,301 on the Coinbase exchange. Its losses were led by a sudden ban on all crypto activities in China (including mining) and Elon Musk's alarming tweets over Bitcoin's booming carbon footprints.

Bitcoin price performance throughout the history. Source: TradingView.com

BTC balance on exchanges drops to fresh lows

The cryptocurrency held prices above $30,000 as its reserves across exchanges dropped significantly.

Blockchain data analytics service CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin's balances across the crypto trading platforms slipped to around 2.37 million BTC last week, its lowest in more than a year.

Bitcoin reserves across all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

A decrease in Bitcoin reserves represents traders' intentions to hold the cryptocurrency instead of trading it for altcoins and fiat currencies.

Bitcoin hashrate has nearly recovered

Bitcoin's recovery from below $30,000 to almost $50,000 also coincided with its V-shaped hashrate recovery.

Related: BTC price falls back to $47K as weekly close neatly tracks Bitcoin futures gap

For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin network's computation power plunged to 84.79 million terahashes per second (TH/s) in early July from 180.66 million TH/s in late May. The drop surfaced as many miners responded to China's crypto crackdown by either shutting down their facilities or moving their operations abroad.

The seven-day average Bitcoin hashrate in recent history. Source: Blockchain.com

But the network recovered more than half of its lost hashrate, hitting 136.92 million TH/s on Sept. 18, indicating that China's direct ban did not have a prolonged effect on Bitcoin's mining sector. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Venture capitalists bail on Zipmex bailout, company warns of consequences: Report

Bitcoin’s sharp fall from $50K linked to stronger US dollar, gold — Correlation shows

The sell-off in the Bitcoin market, in particular, intensified due to excessively leveraged bullish bets.

Bitcoin (BTC) and spot gold hovered below their key psychological levels on Wednesday as a stronger United States dollar weighed on investors’ appetite for hedging assets.

The BTC/USD exchange rate dropped 5.27% to its intraday low of $44,423 but recovered a portion of those losses after reclaiming the $45,000–46,000 range as support. The pair’s recovery also came as an extension to its ongoing rebound from $42,830, a level it reached on Tuesday after falling by more than 18% in the session.

BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s massive sell-off coincided with a strikingly similar but dwarfed decline in the rivaling gold market. In detail, the precious metal suffered its worst daily drop in a month on Tuesday as spot XAU/USD rates fell below $1,800 following a minus 1.37% intraday move.

XAU/USD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The large red hourly candle on gold and Bitcoin charts appeared between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. However, the precious metal consolidated sideways after the big decline in contrast to Bitcoin that extended its downtrend.

In detail, the cryptocurrency crumbled under the weight of excessively leveraged bullish bets. Bybt data showed that about $3.68 billion worth of longs in the Bitcoin options market got liquidated in the last 24 hours, marking it the largest liquidation since June.

Bitcoin liquidations in the past 24 hours. Source: Bybt

Automated liquidations caused additional selloffs in the Bitcoin market, as traders were forced to sell their BTC holdings to cover their margin calls.

Is the U.S. dollar responsible for the big drop?

Worth noting, the sudden drop in Bitcoin and gold prices coincided with a sharp spike in the U.S. dollar index (DXY).

The index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of top national currencies, rose by 0.41% to 92.53 on Tuesday and continued climbing in the ongoing session to settle its intraday high at 92.73.

DXY hourly price chart. Source: TradingView

DXY moved away from its one-month low, benefiting from the rising U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the government debt sale this week, including $58 billion in three-year notes, $38 billion in 10-year notes, and $24 billion in 30-year bonds.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield, which was around 1.32% after Friday’s weak non-farm payroll report, rose to 1.377% on Tuesday. At the time of writing, it stands at 1.351%.

U.S. government bond 10-year yield. Source: TradingView

Mixed outlook until Fed meeting

Rising yields typically compete for haven flows against Bitcoin and gold. But despite the latest climb, they remain below July’s 5.4% core inflation, thus posing non-yielding safe havens as more attractive bets against rising consumer prices.

But with the Federal Reserve planning to start winding down its $120-billion-a-month asset purchasing facility at the end of this year, some analysts believe that bond yields will keep on recovering. In turn, they will provide the dollar a bullish backstop.

Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, told CNBC:

“The Federal Reserve we think is still likely to move toward tapering by the end of this year, the U.S. economy is likely to perform relatively strongly, so our view is minor dollar dips, minor dollar weakness is probably a buying opportunity.”

Related: Bitcoin price to hit $100K in 2021 or early 2022: Standard Chartered

Meanwhile, the rising COVID-19 Delta variant threatens to dampen recovery prospects. In turn, it could force the Fed to sustain its expensive bond-buying program, thus keeping a lid on yields and the dollar alike.

As a result, the outlook for Bitcoin and gold looks mixed. The Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting later this month expects to shed more light on the taper timeline.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Venture capitalists bail on Zipmex bailout, company warns of consequences: Report

Bitcoin whales join ‘small fish’ in buying BTC as price holds above $47K

Bitcoin addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have resumed accumulating coins.

Rich crypto investors are turning their attention back to Bitcoin (BTC) as its price continues to eye a breakout move above $50,000.

Crypto-focused newsletter Ecoinometrics reported positive changes in Bitcoin holdings for addresses controlling 1,000–10,000 BTC. So, based on their rising account balances throughout August, Ecoinometrics spotted a renewed accumulation sentiment among “whales,” hinting that wealthy investors consider the current Bitcoin price levels as attractive to place bullish bets.

Bitcoin accumulation trend vs. price levels. Source: Ecoinometrics

The sentiment appeared the same among small fish — Bitcoin investors who hold less than 1 BTC. Ecoinometrics reported that they have been accumulating Bitcoin since June and, during a period, have also absorbed the selling pressure coming from the whales’ side. Their buying sentiment coincided with a price rally to $50,000, a key psychological resistance level.

“Recently, there has been some on-chain divergence between small fish who are accumulating coins [and] whales who are offloading coins,” tweeted Ecoinometrics on Sunday.

“That’s not ideal [for supporting] Bitcoin’s price, but it looks like things are changing! Whales are ticking back up.”

Supportive data

Blockchain analytics platform Glassnode also reported a spike in buying sentiment among small fish. In detail, the number of addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC reached a three-month high of 3,231,069 on Monday, further validating the accumulation data above.

Number of Bitcoin addresses holding over 0.1 BTC. Source: Glassnode 

Meanwhile, Glassnode’s unspent transaction output (UTXO) data alert presented the $45,000–$50,000 range, wherein whales capitulated the most recently, as a strong support area.

“Over 1.65M BTC now have an on-chain cost basis within the $45k to $50k range,” the platform tweeted Monday, adding:

“The $31k to $40k zone is also home to another 2.98M BTC, indicative of large accumulation demand.”
Bitcoin UTXO realized price distribution. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin holds above the “green wave”

The whale and fish alert surfaces as the Bitcoin market awaits a clear breakout move above $50,000.

Related: Bitcoin accumulation accelerates among ‘whales’ and ‘fish,’ while BTC rallies to $40K

As it stands, the BTC/USD exchange rate has been consolidating under the said resistance level since Friday. In doing so, the pair have also found interim support above $47,000, which, more or less, has been coinciding with a 20-day exponential moving average floor (20-day EMA; the green wave in the chart below).

BTC/USD daily price chart featuring the 20-day EMA support. Source: TradingView

Historically, a break below the 20-day EMA prompts traders to move their downside target to the 50-day EMA (currently near $43,500). Popular market analyst Rekt Capital also presented an outlook that highlighted the levels around $43,500 as Bitcoin’s next support range.

Small fish have accumulated Bitcoin relentlessly in the $40,000–$50,000 range, with no signs of trend reversals in the previous 30 days. On the other hand, whales underwent a capitulation period when Bitcoin entered the $45,000–$50,000 range.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Venture capitalists bail on Zipmex bailout, company warns of consequences: Report

Bitcoin chart fractal suggests BTC price will rally to at least $80K by September

Calls for a doubled-up Bitcoin price rise as the cryptocurrency paints ten green candles in a row.

While Bitcoin's (BTC) price has slipped by more than 8.2% after rising to $42,230, the 43.5% rally included 10 consecutive days of gains. But despite BTC currently trading at around $39,700 as of Aug. 2, some analysts anticipate that it can rise by another 100%.

Nunya Bizniz, an independent market analyst, posted the bullish setup on Sunday, noting that each of the cryptocurrency's previous 10-day bull runs has ended up doubling its prices at a later stage.

Therefore, if the history repeats or rhymes, Bitcoin price can go up by more than 100% in the next 30-60 days.

Bitcoin and its bull runs after 10 consecutive green closes. Source: Nunya Bizniz

Bizniz noted that the next Bitcoin peak could form on Sep. 21, 2021, citing the cryptocurrency's performances before and after its previous two halving events. The halving is a pre-programmed phenomenon written into Bitcoin's source code that automatically reduces its new supply rate by half every four years.

After the first halving in 2013, it took Bitcoin prices approximately 326 days to establish a new record high. Meanwhile, following the next halving in 2016, Bitcoin rose to a new peak 526 days later. That shifts the date of Bitcoin's cycle peak to Sep. 21, 2021, coinciding with the 10-day bullish fractal mentioned above and based on its previous halving in May 2020.

Bitcoin could hit six figures in Q4

Meanwhile, Seeking Alpha financial markets contributor, Ariel Santos-Alborna noted that the current Bitcoin cycle is more similar to 2013 than 2016. Back then, the BTC/USD exchange rate topped out at $255 in April, bottomed in July at $66, and then rose to a peak of $1,150 in December.

Similarly, the pair reached almost $65,000 in April, later plunged to around $29,000 in July, and, as Santos-Alborna believed, was heading for a new peak in the next 2021 fiscal quarter.

Related: BTC price sees 6% correction in contrast to booming Bitcoin on-chain data

But the analyst warned traders against setting up their upside targets based on previous price rallies. For instance, a run-up from $66 to $1,150 in 2013 does not mean Bitcoin would rise from $29,000 to, say, $256,000 in 2021.

Bitcoin remains rangebound between $29K and $42K since April 2021. Source: TradingView.com

"Both tops occurred in November and December, respectively, which could insinuate that the trigger for bear markets has more to do with taxes," explained Santos-Alborna, adding that $88,000-$150,000 is a "more realistic" upside target for Bitcoin in 2021.

The statements come at a time when regulators and governments have increased their scrutiny of the cryptocurrency industry. That includes a recent push by U.S. lawmakers to impose more taxes on the profits made by cryptocurrency investors. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Venture capitalists bail on Zipmex bailout, company warns of consequences: Report

Trading firm of richest crypto billionaire reveals buying ‘a lot more’ Bitcoin below $30K

Alameda Research, headed by Sam Bankman-Fried, whose net worth lately has reached over $8 billion, has upped its Bitcoin buying around its key psychological support of $30,000.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) painful plunge below $30,000 on Tuesday turned into a so-called “buy the dip” opportunity for Alameda Research, a Hong Kong-based quantitative trading firm and liquidity solutions firm headed by FTX CEO and founder Sam Bankman-Fried.

Quantitative trader Sam Trabucco revealed late Tuesday that the company purchased Bitcoin during its latest price decline, adding that the company’s cautious strategy to go long BTC/USD surfaced out of at least three “recovery” catalysts: a potential end to the ongoing crypto FUD (China ban, Grayscale epic unlock, etc.), the stock market’s intraday recovery, and weaker long liquidations in the derivatives market.

“In my view, all these points [to] a similar (if vague) direction,” Trabucco wrote.

“News impact tends to revert? I’d expect crypto to rally more. Stock market *did* revert? I’d expect crypto to have reverted more, too. Liquidation moves usually revert? Same story.”

Panic-sell ahead? Opinions differ

The statements appeared as Bitcoin attempted a modest recovery above $30,000 on Wednesday. The cryptocurrency established an intraday high at $31,669 on the FTX exchange, which just raised a record $900 million. Later, the price corrected lower, albeit minimally, thus showcasing limited selling pressure near the said sessional peak.

Meanwhile, Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst with AvaTrade Ltd, highlighted Bitcoin’s resilience to recent bearish outlooks, with some earlier noting that a close below $30,000 would have the cryptocurrency move lower violently.

“In reality, that is not what we have seen,” the executive told Bloomberg. “The Bitcoin price has been stable, and we have not seen any panic selling.”

But Jeffrey Wang, head of Americas at crypto finance startup Amber Group, provided a cautious outlook. Speaking to Cointelegraph, the former Morgan Stanley executive said that Bitcoin continues to trade under the global risk-on influence, which may subject the cryptocurrency to further losses. He continued:

“With relatively calm price action, recently, short-term speculation and trading have waned somewhat. When we do see more volatile movements, expect more traders to show interest. But that could push the price down further if the risk backdrop remains weak.”
Bitcoin's recovery lagged the Wall Street indexes despite falling in tandem earlier this week. Source: TradingView

Edward Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda, also weighed negatively on the latest Bitcoin–Wall Street correlation. He noted that if the United States stock indexes enter into the “panic selling mode,” it would lead the flagship cryptocurrency lower in tandem.

“It is critical that the digital coin regains ground above the $30,000 level, as a significant breach could result in a massive technical selloff,” Moya wrote in a Tuesday note.

Related: $13K Bitcoin price predictions emerge with BTC falling below historic trendline

As for Alameda, Trabucco admitted that the company had realized downside risks in the Bitcoin market, but its latest accumulation spree has been focusing more on the cryptocurrency’s long-term outlook. He said:

“We do put on fairly big delta positions longish-term for a quant team, and I’ve been glad that it’s been this direction so frequently — bull markets are way more fun.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Venture capitalists bail on Zipmex bailout, company warns of consequences: Report

Bitcoin price at risk of $30K retest following bearish triangle breakdown

An overnight crash in the Bitcoin spot market Wednesday brought prices down from $35,077 to $32,250.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price looks poised to retest $30,000 as traders continued to pull back from upside bets on a spell of a bearish technical pattern.

Dubbed as a Symmetrical Triangle, the structure forms when an asset fluctuates between two converging trendlines.

In doing so, the asset rebounds after testing the Triangle’s lower trendline as support and pulls back upon treating the upper trendline as resistance. Eventually, it breaks out of the range, in the direction of its previous trend, and falls by as much as the maximum distance between Triangle’s upper and lower trendline.

Why $30,000?

Bitcoin was trending inside a similar Triangle-like consolidation pattern until it ultimately broke below the structure’s lower trendline. As a result, the flagship cryptocurrency’s probability of shifting its downside target near $30,000 increased. That is partly because the structure’s maximum height was shy of $2,550, and subtracting it from the point of breakout (~$33,878) lands the price objective near $31,308.

Bitcoin formed a sequence of bearish and bullish reversal structures as it consolidated between the $30,000–$40,000 price range. Source: TradingView

The bearish setup also surfaced as Bitcoin tested $32,334 as its interim support in Thursday’s early London session. A minor bounce ensued that took the price above $32,600. However, the rebound lacked additional upside conviction owing to a bearish divergence between prices and volumes, suggesting that Bitcoin might resume its trend to the downside.

Peter Brandt, chief executive of Factor LLC — a global trading firm — also suggested a decline toward $30,000, albeit using a different indicator. The veteran trader spotted BTC/USD exchange rates inside a rectangular pattern, a price block that has lately been keeping Bitcoin in a medium-term bias conflict.

Bitcoin stuck inside a rectangle. Source: Twitter/Peter Brandt

The price traded midway through the rectangle upon pulling back from its upper trendline resistance. Such a move typically prompts the spot BTC/USD rate to fall toward the lowest rectangle support level, which coincided with $30,000.


Unsupportive macroeconomic fundamentals, in part, fueled the latest Bitcoin price drop.

The primary among them was the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s gathering that came out Wednesday around 14:30 EST. As expected, the United States central bank officials suggested that they might end up pulling back their support of the economy sooner than they had expected.

“Various participants mentioned that they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings in light of incoming data,” the minutes read.

The Federal Reserve's new dot plot expects rate hikes in 2023. Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tends to benefit from loose monetary policies.

The cryptocurrency surged from as low as $3,858 in March 2020 to as high as $65,000 in mid-April 2021 as the Fed slashed its benchmark lending rates to near zero, thus affecting the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power, and started buying government bonds and mortgage-backed securities at the rate of $120 billion per month, pushing down yields.

For clarity, central banks’ asset purchase programs cause inflationary pressures, for they expect to monetize a part of the government’s deficit spending. Such purchases tend to inflate prices of equities and fixed-income investments. Coupled with cheaper lending, the loose monetary programs increase fiat liquidity in the system, boosting Bitcoin’s “superior store of value” narrative against an unlimited dollar supply.

As a result, investors started shifting to riskier safe-haven assets, including Bitcoin, to seek better returns. But as soon as the fears of the Fed’s tapering grew over markets, Bitcoin started declining. On Wednesday, Bitcoin’s move lower from above $35,000 came right after the central bank’s minutes went public.

Bitcoin reacts negatively to the Fed's June minutes. Source: TradingView

John Miller, a financial analyst associated with Seeking Alpha, noted that the Fed’s hawkish notions offset chairman Jerome Powell’s aim to ensure strong long-term monetary accommodation. In the latest minutes as well, Powell called the U.S. economic recovery weak, citing weak job growth in June.

“The Fed’s accommodative balance sheet policy will continue to support elevated liquidity in the banking system and backstop asset prices,” Miller wrote.

“Cryptocurrencies and crypto assets with strong store of value dynamics, such as Bitcoin, will excel in this environment.”

Alexey Veledinskii, product owner at cryptocurrency spot and derivatives exchange Digitex, anticipated Bitcoin to hold $30,000 on persistent inflation concerns. He said:

“Major support at $30,000 can easily be flipped with a rebound to more ambitious price points toward $50,000 to $70,000 in the mid to longer-term.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Venture capitalists bail on Zipmex bailout, company warns of consequences: Report