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Vitalik Buterin: AI may surpass humans as the ‘apex species’

“Even Mars may not be safe” if superintelligent AI turns against humanity, warns Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

Super-advanced artificial intelligence, left unchecked, has a “serious chance” of surpassing humans to become the next “apex species” of the planet, according Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

But that will boil down to how humans potentially intervene with AI developments, he said.

In a Nov. 27 blog post, Buterin, seen by some as a thought leader in the cryptocurrency space, argued AI is “fundamentally different” from other recent inventions — such as social media, contraception, airplanes, guns, the wheel, and the printing press — as AI can create a new type of “mind” that can turn against human interests, adding:

“AI is [...] a new type of mind that is rapidly gaining in intelligence, and it stands a serious chance of overtaking humans' mental faculties and becoming the new apex species on the planet.”

Buterin argued that unlike climate change, a man-made pandemic, or nuclear war, superintelligent AI could potentially end humanity and leave no survivors, particularly if it ends up viewing humans as a threat to its own survival. 

“One way in which AI gone wrong could make the world worse is (almost) the worst possible way: it could literally cause human extinction.”

“Even Mars may not be safe,” Buterin added.

Buterin cited an August 2022 survey from over 4,270 machine learning researchers who estimated a 5-10% chance that AI kills humanity.

However, while Buterin stressed that claims of this nature are “extreme,” there are also ways for humans to prevail.

Brain interfaces and techno-optimism

Buterin suggested integrating brain-computer interfaces (BCI) to offer humans more control over powerful forms of AI-based computation and cognition.

A BCI is a communication pathway between the brain's electrical activity and an external device, such as a computer or robotic limb.

This would reduce the two-way communication loop between man and machine from seconds to milliseconds, and more importantly, ensure humans retain some degree of “meaningful agency” over the world, Buterin said.

A diagram depicting two possible feedback loops between humans and AI. Source: Vitalik.eth

Related: How AI is changing crypto: Hype vs. reality

Buterin suggested this route would be “safer” as humans could be involved in each decision made by the AI machine.

“We [can] reduce the incentive to offload high-level planning responsibility to the AI itself, and thereby reduce the chance that the AI does something totally unaligned with humanity's values on its own.”

The Ethereum co-founder also suggested “active human intention” to take AI in a direction that benefits humanity, as maximizing profit doesn’t always lead human down the most desirable pathway.

Buterin concluded that “we, humans, are the brightest star” in the universe, as we’ve developed technology to expand upon human potential for thousands of years, and hopefully many more to come:

“Two billion years from now, if the Earth or any part of the universe still bears the beauty of Earthly life, it will be human artifices like space travel and geoengineering that will have made it happen.”

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White House advisors renew push for 30% digital mining energy tax

The May 2 blog post by the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) has already attracted strong criticism from the community.

The Biden administration has renewed its push for a 30% Digital Asset Mining Energy (DAME) tax on cryptocurrency miners, part of efforts to minimize the industry’s alleged impact on climate change. 

The proposed crypto-mining tax was first announced on March 9 as part of President Biden's FY2024 budget and seeks to impose a phased-in 30% excise tax on electricity used by crypto-miners.

“An excise tax on electricity usage by digital asset miners could reduce mining activity along with its associated environmental impacts and other harms,” the Department of Treasury wrote at the time. Bitcoin (BTC) fell under $20,000 just a day later.

However, a May 2 statement from the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) has brought the proposal back to light again, in attempts to justify the need for the new tax.

“Currently, cryptomining firms do not have to pay for the full cost they impose on others, in the form of local environmental pollution, higher energy prices, and the impacts of increased greenhouse gas emissions on the climate,” the CEA wrote.

“The DAME tax encourages firms to start taking better account of the harms they impose on society,” it wrote, adding:

“While crypto assets are virtual, the energy consumption tied to their computationally intensive production is very real and imposes very real costs.”

The blog also referenced reports suggesting crypto mining has “negative spillovers” on the environment, quality of life, and electricity grids and that pollution from electricity generation falls on low-income neighborhoods and communities of color, while pushing up the cost of electricity for consumers.

Related: Biden budget proposes 30% tax on crypto mining electricity usage

It even suggests that crypto mining using existing clean power (such as hydropower) can still have a negative impact on the environment, by pushing other electricity users to “dirtier” sources of electricity.

Screenshot of CEA's thread on the environmental impact of crypto mining. Source: Twitter

The Twitter thread posted by the Council of Economic Advisers has attracted widespread criticism from the community, with some calling it “misinformation” and “propaganda” while one Twitter user argued such a tax would “simply push Bitcoin mining to Russia & other countries."

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Can blockchain help combat climate change?

Blockchain’s transparency and traceability can aid sustainability and reduce carbon emissions for climate change.

With rising temperatures, melting ice caps and more frequent and intense extreme weather events, the effects of climate change are becoming more and more obvious. There is an urgent need to prevent climate change, and numerous technologies and methods are being investigated to do so. Blockchain technology is one of these possibilities, and it has the potential to be very effective in the fight against climate change.

At its core, blockchain is a decentralized ledger that can securely and transparently record transactions and store data. This technology has already been used in a variety of applications, from cryptocurrency to supply chain management. However, its potential applications in combating climate change are still being explored.

Here are a few ways in which blockchain can help combat climate change.

Creation and management of carbon credits

The creation and administration of carbon credits is one way that blockchain technology can help fight climate change. A tradable permit called a “carbon credit” permits the holder to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide. To reduce their emissions, businesses and organizations can buy carbon credits, which can be traded on a market.

The management of carbon credits may become more transparent and effective with the use of blockchain. All carbon credit transactions can be tracked in real-time and documented using a decentralized ledger. By doing so, fraud can be avoided, and the intended use of carbon credits can be guaranteed.

The management of carbon credits may become more transparent and effective with the use of blockchain. All carbon credit transactions can be tracked in real-time and documented using a decentralized ledger. By doing so, fraud can be avoided, and the intended use of carbon credits can be guaranteed.

Promote renewable energy sources

By establishing a decentralized energy infrastructure, blockchain technology can also encourage the adoption of renewable energy sources. Without the aid of a centralized organization or utility company, people and companies can buy and sell renewable energy directly from and to one another using a decentralized energy grid. This can support the adoption of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, and lessen dependency on fossil fuels.

Related: Bitcoin miners as energy buyers, explained

Supply chain management

Supply chain management is another area where blockchain technology is being used to tackle climate change. Businesses can find opportunities to lower their carbon footprint and make more sustainable decisions by utilizing blockchain to track the carbon footprint of products and materials across the supply chain. By promoting sustainable production and consumption practices, greenhouse gas emissions can be significantly reduced.

Monitoring and reporting carbon emissions

The monitoring and reporting of carbon emissions from numerous sources, such as businesses, vehicles and structures, can also be done using blockchain technology. Governments and organizations can more precisely measure and report on their emissions and monitor progress toward their emission reduction targets by utilizing a decentralized ledger to track emissions.

Related: Carbon market gets a much-needed boost from blockchain technology — Web3 exec

Challenges to implementing blockchain to reduce carbon emissions

Using blockchain technology to address climate change is not without its difficulties and restrictions. The requirement for standardization and compatibility is one obstacle. Blockchain needs a uniform set of rules and protocols that all stakeholders can agree upon in order to manage carbon credits and track emissions effectively.

The scalability of blockchain technology presents another difficulty. Many blockchain networks currently only have a modest amount of capacity and can only process a small number of transactions. If blockchain is widely utilized to manage carbon credits or track emissions, this might become a bottleneck.

Last but not least, there are issues with the energy usage of blockchain technology. Some of the environmental advantages of adopting blockchain to fight climate change may be outweighed by the energy consumption necessary for blockchain transactions.

The road ahead

Although blockchain technology is still in its infancy in terms of adoption and development, its prospective uses in halting climate change are promising. Blockchain can hasten the shift to a low-carbon economy by enhancing transparency, efficiency and accountability in regulating carbon emissions and encouraging sustainable practices.

Yet in order for blockchain to be successful in addressing climate change, there are also difficulties and constraints that must be overcome. Ultimately, a combination of technologies and solutions will be required to address the complex and urgent challenge of climate change.

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Takeaways from Davos: Blockchain is changing the way we fight for sustainability

Evercity's Alexey Shadrin shares his insights from last month's World Economic Forum in Davos.

The COP has also created tools to prevent climate doomsday. Such economic tools as voluntary and compliance carbon markets, carbon credits, green bonds and other green assets tied to positive environmental impact play a crucial role in decarbonization global efforts. However, they are often inaccessible to small and medium-sized companies from developing countries. The main reasons are high upfront costs and complex structuring processes in line with global green standards.

Positive and negative impacts on the environment have to be forecasted and described according to approved methodologies. This information is used for the future monitoring and reporting and is verified by assurance providers. That’s where greenwashing or deceptive eco-claims may occur. On-chain verification brings data immutability and transparency, stimulating issuers to meet their green commitments.

12% of carbon offsets and the birth of ReFi

It is an open secret that the issuance of green finance instruments has long been monopolized by the Web2 financial infrastructure players, such as banks, exchanges, registries and standards. So, it is no surprise that Web3 is bringing the most disruption at this stage.

The most obvious Web3 use case in green finance is the transfer of assets from traditional centralized registries to the blockchain via fungible or nonfungible tokens (NFTs). The tokenization of carbon credits pioneered by DAO IPCI in 2017 and scaled by Toucan and Klima DAO in 2021 led to the retirement of 20 million tons of CO2 — almost 12% of the annual voluntary carbon market retirement volume. As a protective move, leading carbon standards immediately banned tokenization. This initiated an ongoing public discussion and highlighted the need for a wider approach than increasing liquidity.

Related: What Goldman Sachs’ CEO misunderstands about private blockchains

Such an approach, initially described by the timelessly passed DAO IPCI founder Anton Galenovich, is now being implemented by a new generation of infrastructure solutions. One of them is Guardian, an open-source tool that provides auditable, traceable, reproducible records that document emissions and the lifecycle of green assets. It provides a low-code environment to instantly launch new apps, asset types and even standards. The blockchain-based infrastructure has overall proven to be faster, more cost-efficient and transparent. This is crucial for unlocking green finance for small and medium-sized enterprises and eliminating greenwashing.

Web3 also offers the opportunity to develop innovative instruments that boost the liquidity of previously illiquid assets or merge the strengths of multiple instruments. Take, for instance, carbon-linked bonds. They unite the features of green bonds and carbon credits, giving green bond investors more incentives and allowing issuers to get lower coupon rates. Biodiversity credits value ecosystem services, and my own Evercity’s “carbon forwards” enable financing for early-stage carbon projects ahead of issuing actual carbon credits. There are already Web3 exchanges, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and liquidity pools, such as Solid World, that deal with such assets.

The combination of blockchain technology with monitoring tools, such as the Internet of Things and satellites, can provide further transparency and traceability of impact reporting along the green finance value chain. All of the abovementioned use cases have already started to make a significant impact on the attainment of the Paris Agreement and U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. The companies behind them consider themselves part of the growing Regenerative Finance (ReFi) community.

Convergence of Web3 and carbon markets

In 2017, Glocha and DAO IPCI, which executed the world’s first voluntary carbon credit transaction, introduced a blockchain booth at the COP. The Climate Change Coalition was formed with support from the UNFCCC Secretariat to unite blockchain pioneers, who back then faced a lot of skepticism from traditional players amid the initial coin offering wave. Five years later, the picture had changed dramatically — COP27 in Egypt marked the convergence of the green finance and Web3 worlds.

With national states falling short of their climate responsibilities, new players have stepped up. The sunny Sharm El Sheikh featured a record number of Web3 companies. The United Nations Global Innovation Hub was at the center of all the climate tech talks, featuring high-level speakers and crucial topics. The Web3 agenda was also featured at the Singapore pavilion, International Emissions Trading Association, Climate Chain Coalition, the Gulf Organisation for Research & Development and several others. At dinner parties and hotel conferences, like the one organized by the Hubculture, Hedera and the HBAR Foundation, carbon market veterans mixed with the Web3 crowd. What should be a more solid sign of industry adoption?

Two of the most important carbon market standards, Verra and Gold Standard, were featured at blockchain events, but no official statements regarding tokenization were made. At the same time, some of the carbon-market veterans have already adopted Web3, with AirCarbon exchange, Climate Trade, Climate Check and Ecoregistry leading the way.

This COP also marked Africa’s growing openness to carbon markets and climate finance, as the continent seeks financing and technologies that foster sustainable, independent growth. But the key elements of infrastructure need to be deployed first. Web3 and its open-source part offer such an inclusive, decentralized infrastructure with peer-to-peer payments and transparency that build trust between green issuers and investors.

Regenerative finance is among the hottest WEF trends

Being annually held at a fancy ski resort in the most expensive country, the World Economic Forum (WEF) is the opposite of the COP in many ways, but foremost in inclusivity. While the COP always changes its host country, the WEF stays in the snowy Davos fortress. The outside temperature this year was around -17 celsius, but the hotel prices were even more extreme. A lack of snow highlighted that climate change is indifferent to wealth and status.

Access to the WEF event zone was restricted to politicians, business leaders and friends of the organization, and one had to have a badge to enter. The outside stakeholders gathered at hotel conferences and the Promenade, a street lined with boutiques that were transformed into promotion spaces, also known as Houses. The Houses were mainly occupied by corporations, blockchain companies and countries, such as India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, which wanted to promote themselves on the international stage.

The main topics of discussion at the WEF were the economic downturn, geopolitical issues, sustainability and Web3. The intersection of the last two was among the top trends. In September 2022, the WEF launched the Crypto Sustainability Coalition aimed to investigate how Web3 and blockchain tools could be utilized to achieve positive climate action. The working group meetings on carbon credits and climate action were held among other thematic events.

The key Web3 Houses included Global Blockchain Business Council, Hedera, the Blockchain Hub Davos and a creative ReFi space featuring digital art. Apart from the ReFi project, these events featured speakers, including someone from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Will.i.am and Naomi Campbell. Each day ended with late-night parties, where attendees had the opportunity to mingle with high-level individuals and investors from around the world.

What’s coming in 2023?

Web3 companies had the strongest ever showing at both the COP and WEF events, showcasing solid use cases with broad global support. Climate and Web3 were among the hottest topics, with the ReFi sector on the rise. 2023 and beyond promise continued growth for this trend, with the potential to become the blockchain space’s leading focus. The industry awaits guidance from carbon standards and regulations to drive the market, but there are also untapped opportunities in topics beyond climate, such as biodiversity.

Related: 5 tips for investing during a global recession

Web3-native standards and infrastructure, such as Guardian, are coming soon and are poised to shake up the market landscape. Established players must act quickly to stay relevant. Adoption is fully underway, with developing regions, including Africa, ideally positioned to get the most benefits from Web3’s sustainable solutions.

The Conference of Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change unites around 40,000 people from 196 countries. Governments, international institutions, financiers, businesses, non-governmental organizations and native communities gather for a two-week sprint to discuss the measures to tackle the climate crisis. The famous 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals were also first introduced at COP21 in Paris along with the historic Paris Agreement. It is aimed at limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with an aim to limit it to 1.5 degrees (most likely already achieved according to most evaluations).

Alexey Shadrin is a co-founder of the Carbon Fund and Evercity.io, a Web3-based platform for green finance origination. He is also a finance group leader in the Climate Chain Coalition and a frequent speaker at high-level events by the World Bank, U.N. and WEF. He also co-authored an Elsevier-published book about using blockchains for climate finance.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

‘No ETF Has Ever Done Anything Close’ — Analyst Highlights Record GBTC Outflows, Surpassing All ETFs

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