Holiday price action: Signs of the next crypto bull run?

January 5, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin wipes nearly a week of gains in 20 minutes, falling under $41K

December 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Spot Bitcoin ETF: Why this time is different

November 21, 2023 Coin Telegraph

The latest Cointelegraph Report explains everything you need to know about a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S., its impact on the market, and its significance for the crypto industry.

A wave of optimism around the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has ignited bullish price action in the crypto market in recent weeks.

But that could be just the beginning: If a spot Bitcoin ETF receives a greenlight by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it would mark a major milestone in the history of digital assets.

The spot Bitcoin ETF will provide institutional investors with a simple and regulated way to get exposure to Bitcoin with potentially explosive consequences for the Bitcoin market.

According to many analysts, a spot Bitcoin ETF could spark a demand shock that, coupled with next year's Bitcoin halving event, could spark the new crypto bull market.

The SEC has so far rejected all spot Bitcoin ETF applications, but two main factors make the current batch of applications different.

One is the involvement of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, which filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this year.

The second is the court ruling that required the SEC to revisit a previous rejection of Grayscale’s application for a spot Bitcoin ETF application, defining the regulator's process as "arbitrary and capricious."

“The Grayscale decision ultimately says that you can't allow Bitcoin futures ETFs to trade, and then argue that the same situation is not for spot Bitcoin ETF," said James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

That is why, according to Seyffart, the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by early January are 90%.

To understand why a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is a big deal and its potential impact on the market, check out the full Cointelegraph Report on our YouTube channel, and don’t forget to subscribe!

First deadline window looms for SEC to approve Bitcoin ETFs: Law Decoded

November 13, 2023 Coin Telegraph

China

Even if approved by Nov. 17, the spot Bitcoin ETFs are unlikely to come to market for at least a month after approval.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve all 12 pending spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications by Nov. 17. Beginning on Nov. 9, the SEC reportedly has a “window” to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings, including Grayscale Investments conversion of its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust product.

However, even if the SEC approves spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs by Nov. 17, it could be more than a month before the products launch. The expected delay in launch following SEC approval would be due to the two-step process of launching an ETF. For an issuer to start a Bitcoin ETF, it must get approval from the SEC’s Trading and Markets division on its 19b-4 filing and its Corporate Finance division on the S-1 filing or prospectus. Of the 12 Bitcoin ETF applications, nine issuers have submitted revised prospectuses showing they have communicated with the Corporate Finance division.

Meanwhile, Nasdaq filed the 19b-4 form with the securities regulator on behalf of the $9 trillion asset management firm BlackRock for a proposed ETF, the iShares Ethereum Trust. The move signals BlackRock’s intention to expand beyond Bitcoin with its crypto ETF aspirations. The fund has already registered the corporate entity iShares Ethereum Trust in Delaware. At least five other firms are seeking SEC approval for a spot Ether (ETH) ETF: VanEck, ARK 21Shares, Invesco, Grayscale, and Hashdex.

CLARITY Act may forbid U.S. officials from engaging with Tether’s parent company

U.S. Representatives Zach Nunn and Abigail Spanberger have jointly introduced the Creating Legal Accountability for Rogue Innovators and Technology Act of 2023 — or the CLARITY Act of 2023. The legislation aims to prohibit federal government officials from conducting business with Chinese blockchain companies. The act would ban government employees from using the underlying networks of Chinese blockchain or cryptocurrency trading platforms. Furthermore, it would explicitly forbid U.S. government officials from engaging in transactions with iFinex, the parent company of USDT issuer Tether.

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Forty-seven countries pledge to start exchanging crypto tax data by 2027

Forty-seven national governments have issued a joint pledge to “swiftly transpose” the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) — a new international standard on automatic exchange of information between tax authorities — into their domestic law systems. Developed from an April 2021 mandate from the G20, the CARF framework requires reporting on the type of cryptocurrency and digital asset transaction, whether through an intermediary or a service provider. The statement’s authors intend to activate exchange agreements for information exchanges to commence by 2027.

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The European Banking Authority proposes its guidelines for stablecoin issuers

The European Banking Authority (EBA) — the European Union’s banking watchdog — has proposed new guidelines for stablecoin issuers to set minimum capital and liquidity requirements. Under the proposed liquidity guidelines, stablecoin issuers must offer any stablecoin backed by a currency that is fully redeemable at par to investors. The official proposal by the EBA noted that the stablecoin liquidity guidelines will act as a liquidity stress test for stablecoin issuers. The EBA believes the stress test will highlight any shortcomings and lack of liquidity for the stablecoin. This can help the authority approve only fully-backed stablecoins with enough liquidity buffer.

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BlackRock ETH ETF helps price past $2k; community sees BTC ETF as ‘done deal’

November 10, 2023 Coin Telegraph

<div>BlackRock ETH ETF helps price past k; community sees BTC ETF as 'done deal'</div>

Coin Telegraph

BlackRock has previously also filed for a Bitcoin ETF, for which the SEC approval window is currently open until Nov. 17.

The world’s largest asset manager filed for a spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Nov. 9, four months after filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF. BlackRock’s filing helped ETH prices soar past $2,000 for the first time in over a year.

BlackRock’s intention to file for an Ethereum spot ETF had a bullish effect on the crypto market, helping ETH to get past the critical resistance of $2,000 for the first time in six months.

Apart from ETH, other altcoins also saw significant gains before a flash crash, with nearly $1 billion in open interest being wiped out of the market within an hour. Millions in long and short positions were liquidated due to the sudden price fluctuations.

BlacRock’s ETH ETF filing was confirmed after their 19b-4 filing with Nasdaq became public. Nasdaq filed the 19b-4 form on behalf of the world’s asset manager to the SEC for a proposed ETF called the "iShares Ethereum Trust." The move signals the asset manager’s intention to expand beyond Bitcoin with its ETF aspirations, invoking various reactions from the crypto community.

Bitcoin proponent Udi Wertheimer reacted to the news, saying, “There is a second best,” referring to the popular meme of MicroStrategy CEO Michale Saylor, who believes that Bitcoin is the only true asset and there is no second best.

BREAKING: BLACKROCK: THERE IS A SECOND BEST pic.twitter.com/SEtoTADf0h
— Udi Wertheimer (@udiWertheimer) November 9, 2023

Other crypto proponents rejoiced in growing institutional interest beyond Bitcoin. Raoul Pal said an ETH ETF is the “holy grail for asset managers as they can capture the yield and only give price performance to the ETF holders.”

Others pointed out that BlackRock’s ETH ETF interest suggests that its spot Bitcoin ETF is a done deal.

ETH ETF filling seems to suggest BTC ETF is a done deal.

(Bottom of page 12 onward) pic.twitter.com/Jymn3ltzie
— Wise (@wise_eth) November 9, 2023

Sassal, an independent Ethereum educator, drew attention to the impact of the ETF on ETH yields, claiming traders are going to “absolutely salivate over the real yield that a staked spot ETH ETF can offer.”

Magazine: Bitcoin ETF: Wall Street’s Path to Crypto

3 reasons why Ethereum price is underperforming altcoins

November 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Chainlink

Eth price trades at a key resistance level, but data highlights why the altcoin could struggle to hold $1,900.

Ether (ETH) price surged by 6.2% from Nov. 3 to Nov. 5, but the altcoin faces difficulty in breaking the $1,900 resistance. Despite the current bullish trend, Ether's 17% return over the last 30 days falls short of Bitcoin's (BTC) impressive 27% gain during the same period.

Regulatory hurdles and ecosystem centralization critiques linger

Analysts attribute some of Ether’s underperformance to uncertainty surrounding Consensys, a key player in the Ethereum ecosystem. Former employees have filed a lawsuit against the company and its co-founder, Joseph Lubin. Over two dozen shareholders of the Swiss-based holding company, Consensys AG, claim that Lubin, who is also a co-founder of Ethereum, violated a "no-dilution promise" made in 2015.

Consensys is responsible for developing and hosting infrastructure projects crucial to the Ethereum network. It was founded in October 2014, about nine months before the Ethereum blockchain launched in mid-2015. Furthermore, the High Court of Zug in Switzerland ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, exacerbating the current uncertainty.

Regulatory challenges have hampered the growth of the Ethereum ecosystem. The latest concern centers around PayPal's U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, PYUSD, which operates on the Ethereum network. This token is designed for digital payments and Web3 applications. On November 2, PayPal disclosed a subpoena it received from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

In addition to regulatory pressures, there has been notable criticism of the decentralization of financial applications (DeFi) within the Ethereum network. Chainlink, a preferred solution for oracle services, quietly reduced the number of participants in its multi-signature wallet from 4-out-of-9 to 4-out-of-8. Analysts have highlighted the lack of governance by regular users as a significant issue.

Ether’s underperformance to altcoins is an evidence of other issues

Several major altcoins, including Solana (SOL), XRP and Cardano (ADA) have outperformed Ether with returns of 75.5%, 37%, and 35% in the last 30 days, respectively. This discrepancy suggests that the factors holding back ETH are not solely related to regulatory pressure or reduced demand for DeFi and NFT markets.

One pressing issue for the Ethereum network is the high gas fees associated with transactions, including those executed by smart contracts. The latest 7-day average transaction fee was $4.90, negatively impacting the usage of decentralized applications (DApps).

Moreover, the total deposits on the Ethereum network, measured in Ether, have dropped to their lowest levels since August 2020. It's essential to note that this analysis does not consider the effects of native Ethereum staking.

*Ethereum network applications' total deposits in ETH. Source: DefiLlama*

According to DefiLlama data, Ethereum DApps had a total value locked (TVL) of 12.7 million ETH on November 5, down 4% from the 13.2 million ETH two months earlier. In comparison, TVL on the Tron network increased by 13% during the same period, while Arbitrum deposits remained at 1 million ETH. Data on DApps activity on the Ethereum network supports the notion of reduced activity.

*Ethereum network top DApps, 30-day active addresses. Source: DappRadar*

Even excluding the significant 60% decline in the Uniswap NFT Aggregator, the average number of active addresses across the top Ethereum network DApps decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. In contrast, Solana's top applications saw an average 18% increase in active users during the same period, according to DappRadar data.

Finally, on-chain activity indicates increased user deposits of ETH at exchanges. While this data doesn't necessarily signal short-term selling, the mere availability of coins is typically viewed as a precautionary measure by analysts.

*Average 7-day daily ETH deposits at exchanges, ETH thousands. Source: CoinMetrics*

The present daily ETH deposit average of 255,614 represents a 30% increase from two weeks earlier, indicating that holders are more inclined to sell as Ether's price approaches $1,900.

The data suggests that reduced TVL, declining DApps activity and a higher rate of ETH exchange deposits are negatively impacting the likelihood of Ether breaking the $1,900 resistance. The price level could be more challenging than initially expected and for now, Ether bears can take a breath.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

3 reasons why Ethereum price is down against Bitcoin

November 1, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Halving

ETH price continues to lose ground against Bitcoin. Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the factors behind the weakening ETH/BTC pair.

The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH) is trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin (BTC), and the lowest since Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Cointelegraph takes a closer look at some of the reasons for the continuous drop of the ETH/BTC pair.

Ether’s historical price action has changed

In previous market cycles, Ethereum often outperformed BTC during bullish market trends, but this relationship began to change at the start of 2023. Ether and numerous altcoins struggled as the narrative around altcoins use within Web3, DeFi and NFTs came under pressure in 2022 and 2023.

Stringent regulations against the crypto industry, severely muted inflows from retail and institutional investors, an uptick in investors seeking shelter in US-dollar-pegged stablecoins also impacted sentiment for Etheruem.

Bitcoin dominance rises

In addition to a change in Ether’s performance in its BTC pair, ETH was negatively impacted by the steady rise in Bitcoin dominance. As reported by Cointelegraph,

“Bitcoin’s market dominance has reached 54%, its highest in the last 30 months, indicating the top cryptocurrency is strengthening just before the halving event scheduled for April 2024.”

*Bitcoin market dominance chart. Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin dominance is a measure of BTC’s market capitalization relative to the overall crypto market and it highlights the assets’s strength and if often used by investors as a sentiment gauge. With the Bitcoin halving fast approaching (April 2024) and investors’ belief that a spot BTC ETF is imminent, the drop in Ether’s value in its BTC pair suggests that investors feel more bullish about BTC and possibly allocating less money to Ether investments.

Ethereum price breaks below critical support vs. Bitcoin

The ETH/BTC pair dropped to 0.050 BTC on Oct. 23 and has remained in a downtrend since then. A notable occurrence was the pair’s fall below its 200-week exponential moving average near 0.058 BTC,which raises the possibility for further downside in the short-term.

According to Cointegraph contributor Yashu Gola,

“The 200-week EMA has historically served as a reliable support level for ETH/BTC bulls. For instance, the pair rebounded 75% three months after testing the wave support in July 2022. Conversely, it dropped over 25% after losing the same support in October 2020.”

These factors are likely to continue impacting Ethereum's price relative to Bitcoin. The multifaceted market dynamics, investor sentiment and staunch regulatory environment could remain the dominant headwinds against the ETH/BTC pair for the foreseeable future.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Binance Q3 report appraises crypto market as ‘challenging’ amid high interest rates

October 19, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Binance

The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange painted a somber picture of the market, with occasional bright spots for individual players.

It’s been a challenging quarter for crypto, Binance has confirmed in its Q3 market pulse report. The market was down in many sectors, the report found, although the entry of institutional players such as Deutsche Bank, Sony and PayPal helped offset some of the pain.

The global crypto market capitalization was down 8.6% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) “with the ‘higher for longer’ interest rate rhetoric set to persist.” Fundraising was at its lowest since Q4 2020 and down 21.4% QoQ, with infrastructure doing significantly better than other sectors.

Activity was down slightly on blockchains, with NEAR being the big exception. It saw an increase of about 120% QoQ. NEAR also saw a spike in active addresses that started in August. BNB fell sharply, while Ethereum rose slightly and Solana fell slightly.

Total value locked (TVL) dropped 13.1% across decentralized finance despite an influx of real-world assets, while liquid staking saw a 10.5% increase. Ethereum was the leading blockchain with 55.1% of TVL, despite an 18.6% decline. Tron’s TVL rose by 17.9% QoQ. Tether (USDT) accounted for 67.2% of the stablecoin market's share.

Our latest State of Crypto Report summarises all the key insights, events, and learnings from Q3.

Find everything you need to know about developments in the space, including analysis of:

Layer 1s & 2s
DeFi
NFTs
Gaming

Start reading here ⤵️https://t.co/ES5z6g8FMU
— Binance Research (@BinanceResearch) October 19, 2023

Nonfungible token (NFT) sales continued their slide. September was the worst month for NFT sales since January 2021 at around $300 million. Their average sale price that month was $38.17, down from a high of $791.84 in August 2021. However, transactions with NFTs were up overall despite a sharp downturn in September.

Gaming tokens led the way in NFT sales, even though they were also the loss leaders in price with a 44.9% decrease QoQ. Less than 28% of Web3 games have gone live. Google’s decision to allow NFTs in the games on its Play Store may give the market new impetus, Binance said. Sweat Economy and SuperWalk have taken the second and third places, respectively, by unique active wallets, showing increased interest in move-to-earn games.

*Cryptocurrency price performance in Q3 2023. Source: Binance*

Six of the ten top coins saw increases this year. Solana (SOL) had the best showing, up 113.73%, and Ton debuted on the list, down 3.11%. Bitcoin (BTC) is up 63.05% so far, and Ether (ETH) is up 39.9%. BNB (BNB) had lost 12.77% by the end of Q3 2023.

Magazine: Ethereum restaking: Blockchain innovation or dangerous house of cards?

Ethereum losing streak vs. Bitcoin hits 15 months — Can ETH price reverse course?

October 14, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin etf

Bitcoin ETF and halving buzz have boosted BTC's demand compared to Ethereum in recent weeks.

The price of Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), is trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin (BTC), and the lowest since Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Will it continue to weaken for the remainder of 2023? Let's take a closer look at the charts.

Ethereum price breaks below critical support vs. Bitcoin

The ETH/BTC pair dropped to as low as 0.056 BTC earlier this week. In doing so, the pair broke below its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near 0.058 BTC, raising downside risks further into 2023.

The 200-week EMA has historically served as a reliable support level for ETH/BTC bulls. For instance, the pair rebounded 75% three months after testing the wave support in July 2022. Conversely, it dropped over 25% after losing the same support in October 2020.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

ETH/BTC stares at similar selloff risks in 2023 after losing its 200-week EMA as support. In this case, the next downside target looks to be around its 0.5 Fib line near 0.051 BTC in 2023, down about 9.5% from current price levels.

Conversely, ETH price may rebound toward its 50-week EMA (the red wave) near 0.065 BTC if it reclaims the 200-week EMA as support.

Bitcoin bull case overshadows Ethereum

Ethereum's persistent weakness versus Bitcoin is reflected in institutional capital flow data.

For instance, as of Oct. 6, Bitcoin-specific investment funds had attracted $246 million year-to-date (YTD), according to CoinShares. On the other hand, Ethereum funds have lost capital, witnessing outflows worth $104 million in the same period.

*Net flows into crypto funds (by asset). Source: CoinShares*

The discrepancy is likely due to growing buzz about a potential spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETF) approval in the U.S.

Trade pundits argue that a spot Bitcoin ETF launch will attract $600 billion. In addition, Bitcoin's fourth halving on April 24, 2024, is also acting as a tailwind versus the altcoin market.

The halving will reduce the Bitcoin miners' block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, a bullish case based on historical precedent that cuts new supply in half.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 reasons why Ethereum price can’t break $2K

October 7, 2023 Coin Telegraph

<div>3 reasons why Ethereum price can't break K</div>

Bitcoin

A bearish Ethereum fractal meets lower network activity as Ether's price struggles to break above $2,000.

The price of Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), has gained around 35% so far in 2023. But its attempts to break above $2,000, a psychological resistance level, have witnessed strong bearish rejections multiple times.

*ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Let's take a closer looks at the three likely reasons why Ethereum price has failed to decisively retake $2,000 since May 2022.

Ethereum price paints bear cycle fractal

Ethereum's inability to cross above $2,000 in 2023 resembles the bearish rejection near $425 in 2018-2019.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

In both cases, Ether appears to be in a recovery phase while eying close above its 0.236 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph.

In 2018-2019, the 0.236 Fib line was near $425 and was instrumental in limiting Ether's recovery attempts. In 2023, the same line is near $2,000, enforcing itself again as a selling area and, thus, pressuring ETH's price lower.

Stronger U.S. dollar, Bitcoin

A strengthening U.S. dollar has dampened demand for Ethereum in recent months, thus reducing its ability to close decisively above $2,000.

The prevailing negative correlation between top cryptocurrencies and the dollar has been the main culprit. In 2023, in particular, the weekly correlation coefficient between Ether and the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has been consistently negative, as shown below.

*ETH/USD and DXY weekly correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, Ethereum has largely underperformed Bitcoin in 2023 due to the ongoing spot Bitcoin ETF hype. For instance, the widely-tracked ETH/BTC pair is down 20% year-to-date (YTD).

*ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Additionally, the net capital held by Ethereum-tied investment funds has dropped by $114 million so far in 2023, according to CoinShares' weekly report. In comparison, Bitcoin-based funds have attracted $168 million in the same period.

Ethereum network activity dips

The total-value-locked (TVL) across the Ethereum ecosystem has dropped from 18.41 million ETH to 12.79 million ETH so far in 2023. That underscores a reduced availability of funds, resulting in lower yields for investors, as JP Morgan analysts also warned recently.

*Ethereum TVL since 2019. Source: Defi Llama*

The declining TVL has accompanied a drop in the Ethereum network's gas fees, which reached a yearly low on Oct. 5.

#Ethereum's network has been particularly cheap to use, and this week's average fee level of $1.13 is the lowest since November, 2022. Though not a perfect signal by any means, lower $ETH costs generally lead to a rise in utility and price rebound. https://t.co/ymXFwGJh49 pic.twitter.com/PEGpXMmZ3q
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) October 4, 2023

Ethereum's NFT volumes and unique active wallets have also dropped by 30% and 16.5% in the last 30 days, according to Dapp Radar.

That includes declines in the key metrics of popular apps, including decentralized exchange Uniswap V2, DEX aggregator 1inch Network, Ethereum staking provider Lido, and others.

Ethereum technical analysis

Ethereum price technicals meanwhile show a potential rebound toward its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $1,665.

However, looking broadly, ETH/USD has been paining a bearish continuation pattern called an ascending triangle.

As a result, a break below the triangle's lower trendline risks crashing the price by as much as the pattern's maximum height. In this case, ETH's price can drop to $1,465 and $1,560 in October 2023, depending on the breakdown point.

Short-term, a break above the 50-day EMA could have ETH's price rise toward the triangle's upper trendline near $1,730 in October 2023, coinciding with the 200-day EMA (the blue wave).

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ether Price