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Long-term Bitcoin holders at multi-year high: Glassnode

The analytics provider reported that long-term BTC holders are reducing their spending, and adding to positions.

Glassnode’s latest weekly on-chain report indicated that long-term holders of Bitcoin (BTC) are at a multi-year high and markets are not yet saturated with profit-taking.

These long-term holders (LTH) appear to be reducing their spending while continuing to add to their positions, according to the Nov. 22 report by analytics provider Glassnode.

The analysis delved into Spent Volume Age Bands (SVAB), which are used to identify the age of coins dominating the on-chain flows on any given day. The metric can be used to identify when the process of profit-taking or accumulation begins, according to Glassnode.

Consistent spending of coins older than one month began in November 2020 and ended between April and May in 2021. The SVAB metric has now fallen back to 2.5% of the daily volume since concurrently spiking with the BTC all-time high in October. Glassnode noted:

“This can reasonably be interpreted as longer term holders reducing their spending, and thus are more likely to be adding to positions, not exiting them.”
Source: Glassnode

Glassnode also indicated that the total supply held by short-term hodlers (STH) is at a multi-year low, at less than 3 million BTC – which in turn means that the amount held by LTHs is at a multi-year high.

The report stated that “seeing STH supply this low whilst price is near ATHs is a relatively unique case.”

Although short-term holders have taken profits at “historic” high points and broken even at low points over the past week, the market is still yet to become “overly saturated with profit-taking.”

The findings indicate that there is little sign of a major capitulation just yet and the bulls may have further to run before this cycle comes to an end.  

Related: Analysts pinpoint bull and bear scenarios as Bitcoin price dips below $56K

On Oct 12, Cointelegraph reported that long term holders were sitting on 13.3 million BTC which was worth $754 billion at the time, despite not seeing any outflows for more than five months.

On Nov. 22, Chinese journalist Colin Wu tweeted in response to the report that the number of non-zero addresses has also hit an all-time high. This suggests that adoption and accumulation is still occurring despite the asset’s 18% decline from its mid-October peak price of $69K.

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Marathon Digital stock reaches 6-year high as company HODLs $460M Bitcoin

The mining firm said it expects its fleet of 133,000 miners to produce a hash rate of roughly 13.3 EH/s by 2023.

U.S.-based crypto mining company Marathon Digital Holdings holds more than $460 million in Bitcoin mainly from mining and purchases since last year.

According to a Nov. 2 report, the mining firm said it had been HODLing all Bitcoin (BTC) generated from its mining operations — roughly 2,640 BTC — since its last sale in October 2020. In addition, Marathon Digital purchased more than 4,812 BTC in January when the price of the crypto asset was under $35,000. At the time of publication, the BTC price is $62,056, giving the mining firm’s 7,453 BTC holdings a value of roughly $462 million.

The company has continued to ramp up its mining operations despite global supply chain issues affecting the distribution of crypto mining rigs. Marathon Digital reported it had chartered planes for some of the 42,381 ASIC miners currently in its possession, allowing the firm to produce more than 417 BTC in October. The majority of the miners are currently being used at the firm’s facility in Montana, while 12,331 rigs are pending deployment at a Compute North facility in Texas.

Shares of Marathon Digital Holdings, under the ticker MARA, also surged to more than $63 today, marking highs not seen since May 2015. The crypto mining stock has since fallen to $61.36 at the time of publication.

Source: TradingView

Related: The blacklist: Marathon only mining ‘fully compliant’ Bitcoin transactions

The mining firm announced in May it plans to achieve 70% carbon neutrality for its operations despite plans to scale up with the deployment of more than 90,000 previously purchased miners. According to Marathon Digital, it expects the fleet of 133,000 miners to produce a hash rate of roughly 13.3 EH/s by 2023.

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Bitcoin price eyes $65K breakout as BTC exchange reserves fall to 2018 lows

Decreasing reserves mean a decline in Bitcoin supply for selling, altcoin purchasing and margin trading.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) ongoing price rally above $64,000 has coincided with a substantial drop in its reserves across all exchanges.

According to data provided by CryptoQuant — a South Korea-based blockchain analytics service — the amount of Bitcoin held in exchanges’ wallets dropped to as low as 2.379 million BTC earlier this week, the lowest in more than three years. Currently, the reserves are around 2.38 million BTC.

Bitcoin reserves across all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant noted that the declining Bitcoin reserves showed the availability of fewer BTC tokens “for selling, altcoins purchasing, and margin trading.” Additionally, that also reflected traders’ intention to “hodl” the cryptocurrency.

Demand for Bitcoin grows among whales and fishes

On the other hand, the cryptocurrency’s demand appears to have been increasing across retail and institutional traders, with the number of wallets holding more than $100 and $10 million worth of BTC reaching their record high of 16.67 million and 10,510, respectively.

Bitcoin addresses with balance greater than $100 and $10 million. Source: Messari, Coin Metrics

On-chain analyst Willy Woo published a report in August 2021 that discussed Bitcoin’s “supply shock” against its rising demand, concluding that the cryptocurrency’s per-token worth should be at least $55,000

The “conservative” target remained lower than pseudonymous analyst PlanB’s $135,000 price projection by the end of 2021, based on his stock-to-flow model.

Meanwhile, PlanB’s Bitcoin price prediction for November 2021 sits around $98,000, above $70,000, the most preferred strike target for the options expiring on Nov. 26, as shown in the chart below.

BTC options OI by strike price (expiry Nov. 26, 2021). Source: Bybt

BTC price macro fundamentals

Bitcoin’s bullish on-chain fundamentals are likely to see further strength from Wall Street adoption. 

On Tuesday, ProShares became the first exchange-traded product firm to launch a Bitcoin futures-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) on the New York Stock Exchange. In a milestone for Bitcoin investing opportunities, the listing opened a new road for institutional investors to gain exposure to BTC.

For instance, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee said he anticipated Bitcoin ETFs to attract at least $50 billion in the coming 12 months, reasserting his team’s year-end $100,000 price target for BTC.

Technically, Bitcoin appeared to be heading toward its record high near $65,000, now acting as a resistance level.

BTC/USD daily price chart featuring Fibonacci retracement levels. Source: TradingView

On the flip side, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator that analyzes an asset’s overbought/oversold signals, reported the cryptocurrency price as excessively high on the daily candle chart, suggesting that a pullback is on the table. 

Related: Bitcoin sees its highest ever daily close as BTC/Euro pair hits all-time highs

Should a correction happen, Bitcoin’s next support target could be near $57,500, which serves as the 78.6% Fib level of the Fibonacci retracement graph, drawn between the $65,000 swing high and the $30,000 swing low.

The level also coincides with Bitcoin’s 20-day exponential moving average (the green wave in the chart above). The said level has earlier acted as strong support during Bitcoin’s uptrend. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Long-term Bitcoin bulls hodl strong despite five-month price high

Bitcoin wallets that haven't seen outflows for more five months and are currently sitting on $754 billion worth of the asset.

On-chain analytics provider glassnode reports that long-term Bitcoin holders are refusing to sell despite the BTC markets rallying to a five-month price high.

In its Oct. 11 “Week on Chainreport, Glassnode noted that “long-term holders” — BTC wallets that have not seen outflows for more than 155 days — are currently sitting on nearly 13.3 million BTC or 70% of Bitcoin’s supply.

The report notes that long-term holders have increased their collective stash by more than 2.37 million BTC (roughly $134 billion at current prices) over the past seven months. With only 186,000 BTC being newly minted by miners during the same period, Glassnode concludes that long-term whales are accumulating 12.7 times more BTC than is created as new supply.

Despite long-term holders refusing to sell, Glassnode noted an uptick in on-chain activity as Bitcoin’s price pushed up to a local high of $57,860 on Oct. 12.

October has seen the number of active addresses on-chain increase 19% to 291,000 — levels not seen since the lead up to December 2020’s meteoric bull-trend. Glassnode suggested the spike in activity could foreshadow further bullish momentum, stating:

“More active market participants have historically correlated with growing interest in the asset during early stage bull markets.”

The report also noted an increase in median transaction size to roughly 1.3 BTC per transfer, suggesting an increase in institutional-sized capital flows on-chain. During August, the median transaction size fell as low as 0.6 BTC per transfer.

Last week, the Bitcoin network registered its highest ever daily value settlement of $31 billion.

Related: Bitcoin outflows from centralized exchanges surge to 100K BTC monthly

On Oct. 12, Glassnode reported that Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges had fallen to a three-year low of 2.4 million BTC, further evidencing many investors are choosing to hodl for higher prices.

Industry observers have suggested that whales could be front-running the BTCmarkets in anticipation of a Bitcoin ETF approval this month.

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Miners have accumulated $600M worth of Bitcoin since Feb

Bitcoin miners appear reluctant to sell their BTC as hashrate increases despite the recent sell-off.

Bitcoin miner are accumulating as the network hash rate continues to recover according to on-chain analytics provider Glassnode.

In its Sept. 20 Week on Chain report, glassnode has stated that miner BTC balances are increasing, with wallets associated with miners having stockpiled 14,000 BTC worth roughly $600 million over the past six and a half months.

The report also noted that the bull markets of 2020 and 2021 have seen miners hold onto a larger portion of their rewards than in previous market cycles. Miners usually sell BTC to cover their expenses including electricity bills and hardware.

Bitcoin miner unspent supply: Glassnode

The trend of miner accumulation continued as the Bitcoin network’s hash rate recovered this past quarter.

Amid speculation regarding a wholesale Chinese miner exodus, Glasnnode reported that Bitcoin’s hashing power had slumped 51% to a local low of 90 Exahashes in late June according to Glassnode.

Network hashing power has recovered 52% from to tag 137 Exahashes according to a seven-day moving average. Hash rate recovery indicates that most mining operations have now relocated and are up and running again.

However, Bitcoin hash rate is currently sitting 34% below its all-time high of 184 Exahashes from May.

Related: Four North American Bitcoin miners that could benefit from the East-West shift

Despite the expanding mining treasuries and hash rate recovery, shares in publicly traded mining firms have pulled back as the broader financial markets retrace amid fears that Chinese property giant Evergrande may soon default on its loans.

Riot Blockchain, which has been spending big on building a new data center in Texas and expanding its hashing capacity this year, has suffered a 2.4% slide in the price of its stock since the start of trading Sept. 20.

Competitors Marathon and Hive Blockchain are both down by a more modest 1.5% since Monday morning, while shares in Hut 8 stocks have fallen by 5.4% over the same period - rounding off the performance for each of the “Big Four” North American mining firms.

However, mining stocks have outperformed Bitcoin for the week so far, with BTC tumbling more than 10% to trade at $42,730 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.

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Bitcoin ‘sell the rally’ indicator flashes again as BTC price breaks below $45K

An on-chain indicator, notorious for spotting fake bullish breakouts during downside corrections, flashes again.

A Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain indicator that spotted dead cat bounces during the yesteryear bearish market corrections has flashed again in August 2021.

Dubbed as "Bitcoin: Short Term Holder NUPL," the indicator takes into account the unspent transaction output, or UTXO, of BTC transactions not more than 155 days old. In doing so, it attempts to determine whether or not an investor is profitable within 155 days of purchasing and holding Bitcoin.

Therefore, if the NUPL, which stands for Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, returns a reading below zero, it means investors are making a loss on their Bitcoin investments. Conversely, an NUPL above zero shows that investors are making a profit.

Glassnode reported Thursday that the Bitcoin NUPL for short-term investors recovered back above zero, signifying their profitable state for the first time since May 2021's crypto market crash. Meanwhile, the blockchain analytics platform also signaled fears of potential sell-off, citing fractals from 2014-15, 2018, and March 2020 bear cycles.

Bitcoin short-term holder NUPL chart. Source: Glassnode

In detail, short-term Bitcoin holders earlier used the recovery rallies during corrections to secure interim profits.

The price action from 2014-15 bearish session shows BTC/USD resuming its downside correction despite a 100% rebound. Similarly, in 2018, a 97.41% upside retracement did little in securing the market from the prevailing bearish bias.

Bitcoin price recoveries did not last during the 2014-15 and 2018 bearish cycles. Source: TradingView.com

The latest upside recovery in 2021 came after Bitcoin prices crashed from circa $65,000 to around $29,000. The cryptocurrency rallied to $46,787 on the Bitstamp exchange following a major rebound afterward—a 63.59% jump.

Bitcoin corrected lower again on Thursday, falling below its psychological support level of $45,000. At its intraday low, the cryptocurrency was changing hands for $44,100.

BTC/USD price performance in recent history. Source: TradingView.com

The dissenting bullish case

Glassnode noted that such "rapid recoveries" are common in two cases: either bear market relief rallies or disbelief phases of bull markets.

Therefore, in saying so, the blockchain analytics platform did not rule out the possibility of an extended bull run, such as the one seen during the upside booms of 2013, 2019, and 2020.

More evidence corroborating the bullish outlook came from Glassnode's report published earlier this week. The platform spotted a decline in short-term holders in line with a rise in long-term holders, insomuch that the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders reached a new all-time high of 82.68% of all the coins in circulation.

Related: Large hodlers accumulate Bitcoin below $50K as BTC transactions over $1M soar

Meanwhile, the coin possessed by short-term holders dropped to 25% of the net Bitcoin supply in ciculation, suggesting a run-up in holding behavior.

Long and short term holder supply ratio. Source: Glassnode

Historically, when the short-term holder ratio drops to 20%, it leads to a supply squeeze scenario, i.e., when coins in circulation fall short of the current demand.

“This is extremely similar to the volume of coins held by [long term holders] in October 2020 before the primary bullish impulse started,” Glassnode analysts wrote, adding:

"Whilst the supply squeeze based on the [short-term holder] Supply Ratio is not yet at 20%, there are numerous indicators and trends in play that suggest it may hit it in mid-September (but that the conditions for a supply squeeze are already in play)."

Bitcoin was trading around $44,200 at the time of this writing.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin crashes below $30K, but on-chain data suggests accumulation is brewing

Despite the Bitcoin markets slipping below $30,000, on-chain data suggests accumulation may be underway, as $1 billion worth of BTC leaves exchanges each month.

Despite Bitcoin crashing below $30,000 for the first time in one month, on-chain metrics suggest whales may be steadily accumulating BTC.

According to Glassnode’s July 19 “The Week On-Chain” report, the Bitcoin reserves of centralized exchanges have continued to evaporate despite the recently sustained bearish momentum, with an average of 36,000 Bitcoin (worth roughly $1 billion) being withdrawn from exchanges monthly.

Glassnode infers the shrinking Bitcoin reserves on exchanges as indicating large investors moving BTC into secure storage, rather than leaving their coins on exchanges in preparation for selling.

Bitcoin net position change on exchanges: Glassnode

Glassnode also identified a recent increase in the number of entities hodling Bitcoin since May, increasing from roughly 250,000 to nearly 300,000 today. Glassnode describes “an entity” as a unique on-chain cluster of associated addresses.

The on-chain analytics provider noted that the number of “sending entities” — unique address clusters associated with selling — has fallen by roughly one-third from 150,000 to 100,000, while “receiving entities” — addresses linked to accumulation or holding — have increased by roughly than 20% from 190,000 to 250,000 over the same period.

Bitcoin changes in on-chain entities: Glassnode

Despite emphasizing signals suggesting accumulation, Glassnode noted heavily divided market sentiment, predicting extreme volatility may be imminent for the markets:

“We have an extremely divided market, and one with a likely expansion of volatility just around the corner.”

Related: Traders are withdrawing 2,000 BTC from centralized exchanges daily

It added that miners are now also in accumulation mode despite expenses incurred in the great migration in the wake of China’s mining crackdown. The miner net position change metric indicates that more than 3,300 BTC per month is currently being accumulated.

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Michael Saylor doesn’t think Bitcoin is ‘going to be currency in the US ever’

The MicroStrategy boss thinks Bitcoin is a form of property and points out that the U.S. Government is not threatened by other forms of property.

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor thinks that Bitcoin is more like digital property than digital currency.

He was speaking on the July 15 edition of the “Coin Stories” podcast with host Natalie Brunell. Asked if he thought that Bitcoin was a threat to the U.S. dollar Saylor replied:

“I would call it a digital property, it's a threat to property, it's particularly a threat to other forms of property: gold is property, real estate is property. I don't think the United States government is threatened by real estate or buildings or companies or gold.”

The comments follow on from Saylor's assertions earlier this week on the Scott Melker’s Wolf of All Streets podcast, in which he stated that “I don’t really think that Bitcoin’s going to be currency in the US ever. Nor do I think it should be.”

“And what it’s doing is it’s demonetizing other forms of property,” he added as he outlined that people are now weighing up whether to purchase Bitcoin instead of opting for traditional investments such as real estate, stocks, starting a business, or buying gold.

MicroStrategy has been gradually accumulating Bitcoin since August 2020, and the firm now holds 105,085 BTC worth around $3.3 billion at today’s prices.

Saylor told Brunell that even if Bitcoin crashes in the short term, MicroStrategy has no intention to sell and is prepared for the volatility that will occur in the future.

He emphasized the key is to HODL through periods of market downturn and FUD, and pointed to giants in the tech space such as former Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer, who didn’t sell his stocks when the price crashed in the past:

“What was the brilliant thing that Steve Balmer did in order to be worth $100 billion? yYu know, he didn’t sell Microsoft.”

Related: Bitcoin volatility will always disappoint some investors: Michael Saylor

Saylor also referenced a quote from Warren Buffet which asserts that “If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes,” and cited that even Amazon stock has recovered from 80% crashes in the past.

“One iPhone 12 in a hundred years will be worth nothing, so the product that Apple is selling isn’t gonna last 1000 years. The product that Bitcoin is selling is 1/21 millionth of all the money in the world. That doesn’t have to change, it just kinda has to not break,” he said.

The MicroStrategy CEO did note, however, that if the price of Bitcoin was lower than what it is today four years from now, he would have to reconsider his strategy.

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Bitcoin analyst says ‘supply shock’ underway as BTC withdrawal rate spikes to one-year high

The supply shock is being unnoticed similar to Q4 2020 before the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed, says Willy Woo.

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues sideways inside the $30,000-$40,000 range, new data is emerging about the potential for a bullish breakout.

Is Bitcoin silently readying for a breakout like in Q4 2020? 

Willy Woo, an on-chain analyst, anticipates a potential supply shock in the Bitcoin market as long-term holders continued raking BTC supply from short-term ones. Woo stated in his July 2 newsletter that the process might push more Bitcoin out of circulation.

The analyst referred to the ratio of Bitcoin held by strong hands versus weak hands — also known as Bitcoin Supply Ratio — noting that the former is actively absorbing selling pressure from whales that have been dumping their crypto holdings since February.

BTC's availability on exchanges is declining with respect to the supply (blue), leading to a supply shock (green). Source: Woobull

"It reminds me of the supply shock that went by unnoticed by the market in Q4 2020," wrote Woo. "Pundits were debating whether BTC was an inflation hedge in a post-COVID world when the data was pointing to long term investors stacking BTC at a fast pace."

The price subsequently went on a tear, very quickly de-coupling from its tight correlation with stocks.

New active users rising

Glassnode, another on-chain data analytics service, also boosted Bitcoin's booming adoption prospects. The portal revealed that the Bitcoin network has been onboarding an average of 32,000 new users every day, which is a new high of 2021.

Bitcoin network user growth metric reflects rising adoption rate. Source: Glassnode

The Bitcoin Network User Growth metric last topped in January 2018, hitting approximately 40K before correcting lower alongside the prices. It showed that new users stopped coming to the Bitcoin network as its price crashed from $20,000-top in January 2018 to as low as $3,200 in December 2020.

"This is not the structure we are experiencing right now," explained Woo. "New users are taking this opportunity to buy the dip; they’re coming in at the highest rate seen in 2021."

Again, another example of on-chain data showing divergence to the price action.

Bitcoin is currently stuck below $34,000 at publishing time, up 17.52% from its previous bottom level of $28,800 on June 22.

Meanwhile, Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO of crypto-enabled payment network Mercuryo, believes that Ethereum may steal the limelight from Bitcoin in the near term as the London hardfork approaches.

"The proposed launch of the London Hard Fork upgrade and the ultimate migration to Ethereum 2.0 is helping to renew investors’ confidence," he added. "Once the hype settles, Bitcoin could move up to $50,000 in the short-to-medium term perspective."

Bitcoin withdrawal transactions hit one-year high

Data analytics firm CryptoQuant reported earlier Tuesday that Bitcoin's net outflow transaction count from spot exchanges crossed the 60,000-mark for the first time in a year. Meanwhile, the total number of Bitcoin deposits to spot exchanges' wallets decreased to below 20,000.

Bitcoin spot exchange inflow and outflow transaction count. Source: CryptoQuant 

The BTC withdrawal rate jumped in the period that also saw regulators increasing their scrutiny over cryptocurrency trading platforms. For instance, the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) banned Binance—the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by volumes—from operating regulated activity in the country "without the prior written consent."

On Monday, Barclays notified its clients that they could no longer transfer funds to Binance, citing the FCA's order. However, the London-based bank said clients could withdraw funds from Binance to their banking accounts.

Earlier on Tuesday, the People's Bank of China also took action against a local company for allegedly trading cryptocurrencies on the sideways of their regular business activities. Beijing had effectively prohibited all kinds of cryptocurrency-related activities in May, effectively forcing the world's largest crypto mining community in its regions to either shut down or move their operations abroad.

Generally, a run-up in Bitcoin withdrawal rates is seen as traders' intention to hold the cryptocurrency instead of trading it for other assets, including rival cryptos and fiat money. Therefore, with overall BTC withdrawals hitting a one-year high, expectations remain higher than Bitcoin is preparing for another upside run on the so-called "hodling" sentiment.

But the total Bitcoin reserves held by exchanges have remained relatively stable since May, indicating that the latest spike in withdrawals has had little impact on the overall exchange balance as of July 7.

BTC balance on exchanges. Source: Bybt.com

It's worth noting that exchanges' BTC balances can differ greatly based on their geographical dominance.

For instance, trading platforms having association with China and Chinese traders reported declines in their Bitcoin balances. They include Binance, whose BTC reserves dropped by 7,214.97 units in the last week, and Huobi, which processed withdrawals of 4,398.63 BTC in the same timeframe. OKEx BTC balances dropped by a mere 1,357.53 BTC.

However, US-based Kraken added 6,751.98 BTC to its vaults, the highest among the non-Chinese exchanges, in the previous seven days while Coinbase reserves increased by 168.88 BTC.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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