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Bitcoin metric that ‘looks into future’ eyes $48K BTC price around ETF

Bitcoin ETF approvals may have key timing as the Ichimoku Cloud demands BTC price keep climbing into 2024.

Bitcoin (BTC) may cruise to nearly $50,000 as the United States okays the first spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF).

As flagged by popular analyst CryptoCon, the Ichimoku Cloud indicator is counting down to upside BTC price continuation.

Analysis: $43,000 BTC price is "most conservative level"

Bitcoin is in a rare position on weekly timeframes when it comes to Ichimoku Cloud signals.

As Cointelegraph reported, the indicator, which combines past, present and future trading cues, suggests that the BTC price gains have only just begun.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Nov. 27, CryptoCon was able to deliver a specific target for what could happen next.

Ichimoku’s leading spans have crossed, leading to the formation of a new upside cloud. With the lagging span, Chikou, breaking out of resistance, price should now logically head higher.

“The Weekly Ichimoku cloud called our last Bitcoin rise to 38k 2 months in advance with the cross projected in the future,” he wrote.

“Now we wait for it to fill its next calls, the completion of our rise and the first target of 43k. This has taken anywhere from 7 to 11 weeks from the cross, an average of 10 weeks means our move completes in early January.”
Bitcoin Ichimoku Cloud annotated chart. Source: CryptoCon/X

CryptoCon added that $43,200 was in fact the “most conservative level,” and that $48,000 was a suitable ceiling.

He concluded:

“Even with some pause in between, the indicator that looks into the future says we are not done!”
BTC/USD 1-week chart with Ichimoku Cloud features highlighted. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin traded at $37,000 at the time of writing on Nov. 28, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

A match made in heaven?

Ichimoku’s timing is arguably as interesting as its targets.

Related: $48K is now ‘reasonable’ BTC price target — DecenTrader’s Filbfilb

Should traditional timing play out, based on previous bull markets, the $48,000 move should come in early January — coinciding with the expected ETF approval date.

Little is known about what U.S. regulators have in store, or which specific ETF products, if any, will get the green light first.

In the meantime, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in charge of the ETFs coming to market, continues to pressure crypto sentiment with enforcement actions against Binance, the world’s largest exchange.

A $4.3 billion fine and the removal of Changpeng Zhao, known as “CZ,” as CEO has meanwhile benefited the shares of rival exchange Coinbase, these up over 250% year-to-date.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Major institutions invest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: Bloomberg analyst

Pre-ETF BTC price ‘crash’ or $150K in 2025? Bitcoin forecasts diverge

Bitcoin ETF launch day could be more than just a "sell the news" event for BTC price, says Peter Schiff.

Bitcoin (BTC) will “most likely” see a serious price drawdown before a key date for institutional investors dawns, says gold bug Peter Schiff.

In recent X activity, the longtime Bitcoin skeptic sounded the alarm over recent BTC price gains.

Schiff bets on a BTC price "crash" before ETF launches

Bitcoin is a favoirte topic of criticism for Peter Schiff, the chief economist and global strategist at asset management firm Europac.

Throughout the years, he has repeatedly insisted that unlike gold, Bitcoin’s value is destined to return to zero, and that no one in fact wishes to hold it except in order to sell higher later on.

Now, with BTC/USD circling 18-month highs, he has turned his attention to what others say will be a watershed moment for cryptocurrency — the launch of the United States’ first Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF).

An approval is thought to be due in early 2024, while rumors that a green light could come in November are thought to have fueled last week’s ascent past $37,000.

While some believe that the announcement will be a “sell the news” event, where investors reduce exposure once certainty over the ETF hits, for Schiff, a BTC price comedown may not even wait for that.

In an X survey on Nov. 9, he offered two scenarios for a Bitcoin “crash” — before and after the ETF launch. Alternatively, respondents could choose “Buy and HODL till the moon,” which ultimately became the most popular choice with 68% of the nearly 25,000 votes.

Despite this, however, Schiff stood his ground.

“Based on the results my guess is that Bitcoin crashes before the ETF launch,” he responded.

“That why the people who bought the rumor won't actually profit if they wait for the fact to sell.”

AllianceBernstein: Bitcoin ETF "getting slowly priced in"

As Cointelegraph reported, the mood among the institutional sphere is lightening as the ETF debate looks increasingly set to end in Bitcoin’s favor.

Related: Bitcoin ‘Terminal Price’ hints next BTC all-time high is at least $110K

Among the latest optimistic BTC price forecasts is that of AllianceBernstein, which last week predicted a peak of $150,000 next cycle.

“We believe early flows could be slower and the build up could be more gradual, and post-halving is when ETF flows momentum could build, leading to a cycle peak in 2025 and not 2024,” analysts wrote in a note quoted by MarketWatch and others.

“The current BTC break-out is just simply ETF approval news getting slowly priced in and then the market monitors the initial outflows and likely gets disappointed in the short run.”

An accompanying chart showed BTC price past and future behavior delineated by halving cycles.

BTC/USD cycle phases (screenshot). Source: AllianceBernstein/MarketWatch

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Major institutions invest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: Bloomberg analyst

BTC price models hint at $130K target after 2024 Bitcoin halving

Bitcoin is due to double its current all-time high price within two years of the April 2024 halving, the models suggest.

Bitcoin (BTC) is destined to hit $128,000 or more by the end of 2025, multiple analytics models suggest.

Uploading his latest BTC price estimates to X (formerly Twitter) on Oct. 17, popular trader and analyst CryptoCon deduced a two-year target of around $130,000.

Multiple BTC price forecasts converge on $130,000 in 2025

Bitcoin market participants are diverging over how BTC price behavior will respond to next year’s block subsidy halving, but for CryptoCon, the long-term roadmap is looking firmly bullish.

In an update for various models charting both Bitcoin price cycles and their highs and lows, the analyst reiterated that the area around $130,000 was fast becoming a magnet.

“I’ve been doing a lot of Bitcoin cycle top experiments lately, and I keep seeing right around the same price... 130k,” he summarized.

An accompanying chart highlighted so-called “early” tops in each price cycle, along with the actual cycle top constituting a new all-time high.

The early tops, on average, occur three weeks on either side of July 9, CryptoCon explained. The new all-time highs come three weeks on either side of Nov. 28 — already a popular phenomenon that Cointelegraph reported on last month.

The timing for these events comes from plotting simple diagonal trendlines from the first early top.

“Doing this has found the the price of the last two cycle tops exactly, and with our trend from last cycle, gives us a price of about 138k,” the X post continued.

“I am prepared for lower prices, but the stars are aligning at 130k for Bitcoin this cycle!”
BTC price model data. Source: CryptoCon/X

Per model timing, 2025 should be the year that the next cycle top occurs, just under twice the current record set in 2021.

“History favors the bears”

Four-year halving cycles, meanwhile, form a guide for many well-known Bitcoin market commentators.

Related: Mining BTC is harder than ever — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Among them is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who continues to stress that the prehalving year 2023 could bring about some new local lows before the bull market attains full force. 

Previously, he warned that the $32,000 highs seen earlier this year could end up printing a double-top structure, helping fuel a protracted BTC price downturn next. 

“At this same point in the cycle (~180 days before the Halving)… BTC retraced -25% in 2015/2016 and -38% in 2019,” one of his latest X posts reads.

“Only question is: does history repeat? Or does 2023 generate something completely different? I’m a Macro Bull but history favours Bears.” 

Rekt Capital added that any new lows “should be treated as an opportunity for re-accumulation.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Major institutions invest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: Bloomberg analyst

Bitcoin bull market awaits as US faces ‘bear steepener’ — Arthur Hayes

Bitcoin is witnessing a 16-year high in 30-year U.S. government bond yields, and money printing is all but guaranteed, says the ex-BitMEX CEO.

Bitcoin (BTC) flipping full bull could come courtesy of the United States government, a new prediction says.

In an X thread on Oct. 4, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, eyed ballooning yields as precursor to a new Bitcoin and crypto bull market.

Hayes: Bitcoin bulls should eye U.S. "no way out" moment

U.S. treasury yields are “screaming higher,” and with that, Hayes believes that a macroeconomic flashpoint is only a matter of time.

The reason comes in the form of a so-called “bear steepener” — a phenomenon that describes long-term interest rates rising more quickly than short-term ones.

“Why do I love these markets right now when yields are screaming higher? Bank models have no concept of a bear steepener occurring,” he argued.

Given the current steep rise in the 2s30s curve — the difference between the 30-year and 2-year yields — combined with rising long and short-term interest rates, the pressure across the economy is rising.

“Due to the leverage and non-linear risks embedded in banks' portfolios, they will be selling bonds or paying fixed on IRS as rates rise. More selling, begets more selling, which is no bueno for bond prices,” Hayes continued.

The result should be clear — a return to mass liquidity injections, counteracting the quantitative tightening seen since late 2021 which has pressured crypto markets.

For Hayes, this cannot come without major casualties along the way. He concluded:

“The faster this bear steepener rises, the faster someone goes belly up, the faster everyone recognises there is no way out other than money printing to save govt bond markets, the faster we get back to the crypto bull market :). The Lord is my Shepherd, I shall not want.”
U.S. 30-year bonds yield 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

Separate data from TradingView shows the 30-year U.S. government bonds yield hitting 5% this week — a first since August 2007, before the Global Financial Crisis.

Continuing the discussion, Philip Swift, creator of statistics resource LookIntoBitcoin and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, voiced his support for Hayes’ prognosis.

An accompanying chart showed Bitcoin’s relationship with treasury yields.

“That would be THE major catalyst for the Bitcoin bull market,” he commented about a theoretical return to money supply expansion.

Treasury yields vs. BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/X

U.S. debt sees its own "Uptober"

Alongside, the U.S. continues to add to its record-high national debt at an astonishing pace.

Related: Bitcoin analysts still predict a BTC price crash to $20K

Two weeks after the debt tally passed $33 trillion for the first time, the government increased its total by $275 billion in just one day.

This did not go unnoticed among financial commentators.

“In a single day, the US added more than half of Bitcoin’s entire market cap in debt,” Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin adoption firm Jan3, responded.

“That’s something like 10 million BTC . And yet there are still people that are unsure if $27k is a good price to buy.”
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/USD traded at around $27,500 at the time of writing.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Major institutions invest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: Bloomberg analyst

AI to reinvent DAOs while tokenized models will become valuable: VC firm

Framework Ventures co-founder Vance Spencer sees AI as being the missing piece for DAOs and shared his outlook for the tokenization of AI models.

Artificial intelligence could be the missing piece for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), while trained AI models could become valuable assets on-chain, according to the co-founder of Framework Ventures.

Speaking to Cointelegraph on Sept. 5 at Korea Blockchain Week, Vance Spencer, the co-founder of the crypto-focused venture firm, shared four predictions about how AI and blockchain technology could collide.

One of the biggest impacts is for AI to finally put the “autonomous” into decentralized autonomous organizations, according to Spencer.

DAOs were founded on the concept of a decentralized collective sharing a common goal, with no overarching central authority. However, many of the biggest are still far from full decentralization or autonomy.

“It's not actually autonomous, there’s a bunch of people in the middle. It seems like AI is really the only way to actually make the DAO concept work.”

In May, DAI stablecoin proprietor MakerDAO published a five-phase roadmap to upgrade its ecosystem including a strong focus on using AI to create a “governance equilibrium.”

According to MakerDAO co-founder Rune Christensen, phase three of the roadmap will launch AI tools aimed at improving and possibly automating certain governance aspects.

Christensen added these AI tools will initially help “level the playing field between deeply embedded insiders and more peripheral community members,” but eventually allow the DAO to improve its processes and decisions over time “without requiring leadership or centralized authority.

“What happens when Maker, who has a shitload of treasury, is governed by an AI?” Spencer queried.

“That AI can do really interesting things and there needs to be only limited human intervention with that,” he added.

Trained AI models could become prized

Spencer also sees a future in which trained AI models are tokenized on the blockchain.

He said an early example can be seen in the Ethereum native decentralized app and game — AI Arena — where players train an AI model to fight for them in a platform fighting game akin to Nintendo’s Super Smash Bros. 

Framework invested in AI Arena's $5 million Paradigm-led seed round in 2021.

Spencer explained that in AI Arena, the players don’t control the fighters themselves but instead, the characters are controlled by AI models that are owned and trained by the player.

He noted that while it shifts the paradigm of what a game is, the on-chain ownership of AI models is “really where this comes to life in the crypto context.”

“Probably some of the most valuable assets on-chain will be tokenized AI models, that’s my theory at least,” Spencer said.

Other use cases

Meanwhile, decentralized computing marketplaces — such as Akash Network and Render Network — could also see crypto play a part in the growth of AI.

The blockchain-based protocols work as a marketplace that allows buyers to purchase idle computing processing power from providers, which is particularly important given the current shortage of GPU chips, explained Spencer.

Related: Cathie Wood bullish on Bitcoin and AI convergence

“Actually having a network that sources and provides and bootstraps the market? Those things should work,” he said. “There are some pretty successful companies that do it that are protocols.”

Spencer also argued that blockchain technology will be important for auditing and verifying AI-provided information.

“Say that you want to prove that ChatGPT, that specific model, is giving you an answer rather than Bard, rather than Falcon, which is UAE’s model," Spencer explained. "You can actually prove that on-chain.”

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Major institutions invest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: Bloomberg analyst

Wen moon? Bitcoin halving cycle hints at Q4 as smart money ‘buys the rumor’

Bitcoin miners and "smart money" are the investor cohorts to watch when it comes to late 2023 BTC price action, says Filbfilb.

Bitcoin (BTC) is “much more likely” to stay rangebound until at least Q4, 2023, according to longtime market participant Filbfilb.

In an X thread on Aug. 25, the popular analyst and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader told readers to expect flat BTC price action into year end.

Filbfilb: BTC price approaching "critical time"

Bitcoin may be disappointing bulls after its 70% Q1 gains, but for Filbfilb, there is little about BTC price action this halving cycle that is different to its previous ones.

“Bitcoin is 1200 days since the previous halving. During this period, Bitcoin has historically consolidated,” he explained.

Uploading various comparative charts, Filbfilb predicted that miners should begin to bid price higher into the Bitcoin halving — with this occurring around 1,276 days after each prior halving.

“Miners are incentivized to ensure that prices are well above marginal cost prior to the halving. Whether they collude consciously, or not they are collectively incentivized to send prices higher before their marginal revenue is effectively halved,” he wrote, also adding that smart money interested in “buying the rumor” around the halving’s potential positive BTC price impact had also buoyed the market in previous years.

1,276 from the 2020 halving gives early November as a potential deadline for such behavior to show itself.

“From a timing perspective Q4 seems like a critical time for BTC where we are likely to see supply constricted and new money driven by speculation,” Filbfilb forecast.

“Until then, it would be unusual for Bitcoin to break up, much more likely to consolidate.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Filbfilb/X

Macro risk to Bitcoin stays "elephant in the room"

Between now and then, however, various curve balls may lie in wait for Bitcoin, not least of which is United States macroeconomic policy.

Related: Bitcoin could be worth less than $20K in 2023, US inflation data says

The September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will decide benchmark interest rates, is of particular interest to risk asset bulls.

Filbfilb described the macro aspect as being “clearly the elephant in the room.”

“If that can remain steady, then I believe the game theory will play out and Bitcoin will convincingly break $30k before the 2023 year-end,” he wrote.

Should a more bearish scenario enter and Bitcoin return to $20,000, the current 2023 local high of $31,800 may remain in force.

“I would suggest that if that happens and is for anything other than for a very short time period, then the pre-halving pump may only take us to the 2023 highs already seen and breaking it would come later,” he concluded.

Potential BTC/USD scenarios. Source: Filbfilb/X

As Cointelegraph reported, other analysts are also counting the days between halvings, with varying BTC price predictions coming as a result.

Asset managed Pantera Capital this week delivered a $35,000 target for the next halving and $148,000 for after the 2024 event, while another recent prediction stated that $100,000 would under no circumstances come before it.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Major institutions invest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: Bloomberg analyst

BTC price upside ‘yet to come’ at $29K after Bitcoin RSI reset — trader

Bitcoin is still preparing for a BTC price "parabolic advance" with a popular metric laying the foundations, says Credible Crypto.

Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet seen the majority of its gains this cycle, one popular trader believes.

In a tweet on Aug. 3, Credible Crypto doubled down on his bullish BTC price thesis.

Credible Crypto: Bitcoin still to see "biggest upside moves"

After over a month of acting within a tight trading range, traders’ patience with Bitcoin is wearing thin.

Amid expectations that BTC price will test levels closer to $25,000 or even lower, Credible Crypto is one of those arguing the opposite.

Analyzing data including Bitcoin market cap dominance and its relative strength index (RSI), he concluded that conditions had been reset.

“Biggest upside moves on BTC are YET TO COME,” he summarized.

“A month of sideways action on BTC and dominance has simply made a higher low. H12 bullish div confirmed, RSI on higher TF looks reset, maintaining above the ‘magic’ 40 RSI level, who's ready for the next leg up?”
BTC/USD annotated chart with RSI. Source: Credible Crypto/Twitter

RSI measures the price strength of an asset at a specific price point, and is currently consolidating on daily timeframes after Bitcoin’s July spike to one-year highs failed to sustain.

Credible Crypto meanwhile is known for his optimism when it comes to how Bitcoin will evolve in the coming year and beyond.

As Cointelegraph reported, in June, he predicted that BTC/USD would need only four months to challenge its current all-time highs of $69,000 seen in November 2021.

“I am not saying we MUST hit new all time highs by October, I AM saying I do think we will hit new ATH by the end of this year and if someone forced me to pick a month in which I think this will occur it would be October. Let’s see how things play out," he wrote at the time.

A more recent video update in late July made fresh reference to Bitcoin's upcoming "parabolic advance" to eclipse those highs.

"Early bull market price action, period"

Continuing, fellow trader CryptoCon flagged RSI over longer timeframes to deliver a similarly bullish take on BTC price performance.

Related: BTC price risks new sub-$29K dip as Binance fears test Bitcoin bulls

“Bitcoin bears and recession callers are relentless just below yearly highs... astounding!” part of a tweet stated on Aug. 3, saying that those bears had “no patience.”

“I see price going sideways, and I've never been more bullish! Just wait until we break into phase 2 on the 3 Week RSI... Early bull market price action, period.”

An accompanying chart showed RSI peaks and troughs over the years, with current conditions reminiscent of a pre-breakout stage.

Bitcoin RSI phases chart. Source: CryptoCon/Twitter

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Major institutions invest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: Bloomberg analyst

AI has potential to send Bitcoin price over $750K — Arthur Hayes

The coming years will be explosive for AI, and even more so for Bitcoin, says the former BitMEX CEO.

Bitcoin (BTC) will be the currency of artificial intelligence (AI) and could reach a price per coin of $760,000 in the process, Arthur Hayes says.

In his latest essay titled “Massa,” the former BitMEX CEO concluded that the AI revolution would naturally gravitate toward BTC.

Hayes: Bitcoin is "logical currency choice for AI"

Despite fiat currency regimes being destined to become evermore dysfunctional in future, Hayes says, there is one burgeoning economic sector which will only go from strength to strength: AI.

While still nascent in 2023, the coming decades will see an explosion of AI-related implementations which will make it ubiquitous and unavoidable.

“Recent advancements in computing power have brought us to the cusp of a hockey stick moment, in which AI will go viral and change the course of humanity virtually overnight,” he wrote.

“In only two months, ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly active users making it the fastest adopted technology in human history – so just imagine how quickly everything is going to change as AIs are integrated into everyday life and continue to learn and improve.”

When it comes to integration, the financial solution on the table first and foremost, Hayes says, will not be a tailor-made, AI-focused altcoin; it will be Bitcoin instead.

The reason, an accompanying theory states, is that AI will view Bitcoin’s inherent qualities — an immutable fixed supply, digital scarcity and its status as “energy money” — as the logical choice.

“An AI is unlikely to allow itself to rely on anything that a human government operates therefore only gold and Bitcoin are suitable. A tie between gold and Bitcoin,” Hayes continued.

“Bitcoin is thus the logical currency choice for any AI. It is purely digital, censorship resistant, provably scarce, and its intrinsic value is completely electricity-cost-dependent. There is nothing in existence today that comes close to challenging Bitcoin on these aspects.”

Another path toward $1 million BTC price

Where would that leave the BTC price?

Related: BTC price remains ‘undoubtedly bullish’ as $30K Bitcoin buyers emerge

From around $30,000 today, the real effect of AI should kick in in around three years’ time.

After that, Hayes says, it could be around another decade before the network value boost from AI alone sends BTC/USD to nearly $1 million.

“I believe the peak of deranged growth investing will occur in the 2025 to 2026 timeframe. Therefore, the goal of my predictions regarding the future price of Bitcoin is to form a narrative that takes hold before then,” he explained.

Depending on the scale of that investing, BTC price action could see up to $760,000 per coin.

“Remember – the market will overpay for Bitcoin network growth if it believes there is a possibility that my assumptions could be true in the future,” part of “Massa” concludes.

“The most money is made when the market price adjusts from ‘can never happen’ to ‘maybe could happen.’
Bitcoin price target calculation (screenshot). Source: Arthur Hayes

Hayes is well known for his bullish long-term perspective on Bitcoin, recently championing a million-dollar price tag as a function of fiat currency disintegration.

Magazine: Should you ‘orange pill’ children? The case for Bitcoin kids books

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Major institutions invest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: Bloomberg analyst

3 Bitcoin price metrics showing ‘insane’ similarities to 2020 breakout

Bitcoin remains bullish — and arguably more so than ever — depending on what BTC price metrics are used to assess it.

Bitcoin (BTC) is copying the prelude to its 2020 breakout to an “insane” extent, the co-founders of Glassnode have said.

In a tweet on June 15, Yann Allemann and Jan Happel highlighted three BTC price metrics that are anything but bearish.

Metrics echo Bitcoin’s “major reversals and rallies”

BTC/USD reached local highs of $31,000 in April but, since then, has dipped around 20%. Sentiment has taken a beating in the process, with downward price predictions becoming the norm in the intervening weeks.

While recent events have placed additional pressure on the market, Allemann and Happel see at least three good reasons for optimism.

Several on-chain indicators, they revealed, now look uncannily like they did in Q3 2020, just before BTC/USD beat its old 2017 all-time high of $20,000.

“The resemblance to Sep 04, 2020, is insane…,” they wrote in part of commentary.

Leading the line-up is the classic relative strength index (RSI), which measures how overbought or oversold BTC/USD is at a specific price point.

Daily RSI currently measures 35, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms. This is its lowest reading since early March, just before Bitcoin’s most recent uptick, which resulted in the $31,000 peak a month later.

“RSI is at levels that led to major reversals and rallies,” the post explained.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart on Bitstamp with RSI. Source: TradingView

Continuing, Allemann and Happel flagged the Cipher B readings for Bitcoin, these coming from a collection of algorithms that converge to offer signals of, among other things, when to buy dips during bull markets.

“Cipher b wave trends are at levels that led to major reversals and rallies,” they repeated.

Finally, the appropriately named Bitcoin Risk Signal is back at its Sept. 4, 2020 position. Risk Signal predicts the likelihood of a major BTC price drawdown and, at that time, saw a spike to “high risk” before receding.

What happened next was a flat Risk Signal reading for successive months, while BTC/USD broke higher.

Bitcoin Risk Signal chart. Source: Glassnode

Hodlers big and small increase BTC exposure

Elsewhere, Glassnode flagged encouraging signs suggesting investors keeping the faith long term.

Related: ‘Pick your targets’ — Bitcoin analyst believes Fed will favor bulls

For lead on-chain analyst Checkmate, accumulation among existing hodlers remained impressive.

“Pretty doomy out there,” he tweeted about sentiment on June 15.

“Meanwhile, Bitcoin Shrimp, Crabs, and Fish (wallets < 100 $BTC) are adding to their balance at a rate of 248% times the amount freshly minted by miners. Sharks (100 to 1k $BTC) adding an additional 38%. Coins are coming out of exchanges. Halving is ~310 days away.”

Accompanying charts showed so-called “Absorption Rates” for various hodler cohorts by wallet size. 

Bitcoin Absorption Rates charts. Source: Checkmate/Twitter

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Major institutions invest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: Bloomberg analyst

AI automation could take over 50% of today’s work activity by 2045: McKinsey

Management consulting firm McKinsey & Co believes AI will have the “biggest impact” on high-wage workers.

In just 22 years, generative AI may be able to fully automate half of all work activity conducted today, including tasks related to decision-making, management, and interfacing with stakeholders, according to a new report from McKinsey & Co.

The prediction came from the management consulting firm report on June 14, forecasting 75% of generative AI value creation will come from customer service operations, marketing and sales, software engineering, as well as research and development positions.

The firm explained that recent developments in generative AI has “accelerated” its “midpoint” prediction by nearly a decade from 2053 — its 2016 estimate — to 2045.

McKinsey explained that its broad range of 2030-2060 was made to encompass a range of outcomes — such as the rate at which generative AI is adopted, investment decisions and regulation, among other factors.

Its previous range for 50% of work being automated was 2035-2070.

McKinsey’s new predicted “midpoint” time at which automation reaches 50% of time on work-related activities has accelerated by eight years to 2045. Source: McKinsey

The consulting firm said, however, the pace of adoption across the globe will vary considerably from country to country:

“Automation adoption is likely to be faster in developed economies, where higher wages will make it economically feasible sooner.”
Early and late scenario midpoint times for the United States, Germany, Japan, France, China, Mexico and India. Source: McKinsey.

Generative AI systems now have the potential to automate work activities that absorb 60-70% of employees’ time today, McKinsey estimated.

Interestingly, the report estimates generative AI will likely have the “biggest impact” on high-wage workers applying a high degree of “expertise” in the form of decision making, management and interfacing with stakeholders.

The report also predicts that the generative AI market will add between $2.6 to $4.4 trillion to the world economy annually and be worth a whopping $15.7 trillion by 2030.

This would provide enormous economic value on top of non-generative AI tools in mainstream use today, the firm said:

“That would add 15 to 40 percent to the $11.0 trillion to $17.7 trillion of economic value that we now estimate nongenerative artificial intelligence and analytics could unlock.”

Generative AI systems are capable of producing text, images, audio and videos in response to prompts by receiving input data and learning its patterns. OpenAI’s ChatGPT is the most commonly used generative AI tool today.

McKinsey’s $15.7 trillion prediction by 2030 is more than a three-fold increase in comparison to its $5 trillion prediction for the Metaverse over the same timeframe.

Related: The need for real, viable data in AI

However, the recent growth of generative AI platforms hasn’t come without concerns.

The United Nations recently highlighted “serious and urgent” concerns about generative AI tools producing fake news and information on June 12.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg received a grilling by United States Senators of a “leaked” release of the firm’s AI tool “LLaMA” which the senators claim to be potentially “dangerous” and be possibly used for “criminal tasks.”

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Major institutions invest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: Bloomberg analyst