XRP price bull flag hints at 20% rally by New Year’s

November 26, 2023 Coin Telegraph

XRP may need to undergo a short selloff period before confirming the upside continuation setup as whales demonstrate bullishness.

XRP (XRP) price may rally over 20% in the coming weeks thanks to a classic bullish continuation setup.

XRP price enters bull flag breakout stage

The so-called bull flag pattern develops when the price consolidates inside a parallel channel after a strong uptrend. It resolves after the price breaks above the upper trendline with convincing volumes and rises by as much as the previous uptrend's height.

As of Nov. 26, XRP was trading above its bull flag's upper trendline, albeit accompanying weaker volumes. That technically indicates a weaker conviction among traders about XRP's bullish continuation.

*XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The duration of traders' indecisiveness could have XRP price test the flag's upper trendline as support. That means a decline toward $0.59, coinciding with a historical support level and the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave), by November.

This level is also around XRP's downside target on the weekly timeframe chart.

XRP may then climb toward $0.75 in December, up over 20% from current price levels, if the bull flag scenario holds, and is characterized by a high-volume rebound from the upper trendline.

Conversely, breaking below the flag's upper trendline would delay the bullish continuation setup, bringing the lower trendline near $0.54, coinciding with the 200-day EMA (the blue wave), into play as the next downside target.

On-chain data shows XRP accumulation

XRP's on-chain data looks tilted toward bulls thanks to strong accumulation among its richest addresses.

Notably, the cryptocurrency's correction period has coincided with an increase in its supply among addresses with a balance between 100,000 and 10 million tokens. In total, these so-called "whales" have purchased $6.82 million worth of XRP tokens over the past week.

#Ripple | On-chain data shows that #XRP whales have purchased around 11 million $XRP over the past week, worth roughly $6.82 million! pic.twitter.com/VnWpaMoOYR
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 25, 2023

In other words, these whales are buying XRP at the likely local lows, indicating their conviction about a price rise in December, which corresponds with the bull flag setup presented above.

SEC vs. Ripple decision looms

XRP's price has soared nearly 85% so far in 2023, with Ripple's partial win against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) serving as the primary bullish catalyst. However, the court must still decide whether Ripple's XRP sales to institutional investors broke U.S. securities laws.

The trial between Ripple and the SEC will reportedly resume on April 23, 2024, with legal experts seeing a huge likelihood of a settlement. John Deaton, a crypto attorney, notes that any settlement below $20 million will be a 99.99% win for Ripple.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin eyes $30K, XRP price jumps 6% after Ripple’s legal victory

October 20, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin keeps heading higher as BTC price strength flies in the face of a hawkish Fed, but concerns over a retracement are building.

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $29,500 on Oct. 20 after an eventful 24 hours boosted BTC price trajectory while XRP price jumped above $0.50 in response to Ripple's big legal win.

*BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Hawkish Fed's Powell fails to dent BTC price

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it edged closer to two-month highs from the start of the week.

The largest cryptocurrency appeared to feed off events surrounding a speech from Jerome Powell, Chair of the United States Federal Reserve, the day prior.

Amid a U.S. bond rout, Powell was under pressure to deliver appropriate wording, and analysis even predicted a “very dovish” tone would dominate. In the event, the speech, which was briefly interrupted by protesters, saw Powell highly conservative on the outlook.

“The stance of policy is restrictive, meaning that tight policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation,” he said about interest rate hikes.

“Given the fast pace of the tightening, there may still be meaningful tightening in the pipeline.”

Powell said that the Fed acknowledged the potential problems of hiking rates too far.

“Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment. Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy,” he continued.

“Given the uncertainties and risks, and how far we have come, the Committee is proceeding carefully.”

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed changing tides among market expectations when it comes to future rate decisions.

At its next meeting on Nov. 1, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is now unanimously thought to hold rates at their current levels, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Before Powell, odds stood at 88%.

*Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group*

Following the speech, news broke that U.S. regulators had dropped criminal charges against executives of Blockchain firm Ripple.

XRP price responded immediately, trading up over 6% in 24 hours at the time of writing.

*XRP/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Trader suggests Bitcoin "impulse" is here

Amid a backdrop of increasing anticipation over approval of a U.S. Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF), Bitcoin gained momentum overnight.

At the time of writing, the day’s highs stood at $29,689 — just $200 from the top of a snap volatility wick seen on Oct. 17.

$BTC has launched.

Keeping it as simple as it can get:

The same way 26.8k was the origin of our last impulse, 28.6k is now the origin of the current one. Above that, we are going A LOT higher, FAST.

Drop below 28.6k and the local uptrend will be violated and we may get a bit… https://t.co/odakQpZbTL pic.twitter.com/CbhLBo133G
— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) October 20, 2023

“Bitcoin filling the wick, slowly but surely. Let's go for that $30k tap,” popular trader Jelle wrote in part of X analysis on the day, having previously argued that Bitcoin looked “eager to fill” the Oct. 17 wick.

“Today it's going a very interesting day for trading... They have hit exactly $29400 where there were many liquidations,” fellow trader CrypNuevo continued.

In various X posts, CrytpNuevo uploaded liquidation data from the past days, warnings that long positions outnumbered shorts four to one. Bitcoin, he suggested, could retrace during the U.S. trading session.

$BTC

Liquidation levels and liquidation heatmaps.

Quick thoughts:
- All our liquidation levels to the upside from yesterday have been hit.
- Delta long liquidations at $15B (mid-high amount and enough to consider a retrace is coming soon).
- Current long-short open positions… pic.twitter.com/dAqbRbaimc
— CrypNuevo (@CrypNuevo) October 20, 2023

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

SEC appeal could amplify Ripple win, says Ripple Labs legal chief

July 26, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Stuart Alderoty says that an appeal by the Securities and Exchange Commission could see Ripple consolidate its victory over the regulator even further.

Concerns of a potential appeal by the United States securities regulator to the landmark Ripple ruling earlier this month were shrugged off by Ripple’s chief legal officer.

Stuart Alderoty believes that if the SEC takes the case to an appeal, the court could move to consolidate Ripple Labs’ partial victory over the financial regulator even further.

Speaking on a July 26 TechCrunch podcast, Alderoty reiterated his position that the XRP (XRP) token does not constitute an investment contract and that the Ripple team would not shy away from any appeal brought to the courts by the SEC.

“We think the judge got that right, and we think that was a faithful application of the law, and I think a court of appeals will not only affirm that but maybe even amplify that to even a greater extent.”

On July 13, Judge Analisa Torres ruled XRP was not a security when sold to the public on crypto exchanges but can be treated as a security when sold to institutional investors.

On July 21, the SEC used its ongoing case against Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon to air out its grievances with the ruling and hinted that it would appeal the split-decision ruling in the future.

“Respectfully, those portions of Ripple were wrongly decided, and this Court should not follow them,” SEC lawyers wrote, asserting that retail sales of XRP should have been deemed securities.

“SEC staff is considering the various available avenues for further review and intends to recommend that the SEC seek such review,” the lawyers added.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler also expressed his disappointment over the court’s decision on XRP adding the regulator would continue to assess the ruling.

In light of the ruling, Alderoty predicted if the SEC continues to claim that crypto assets themselves are securities it would begin to lose ongoing cases where the SEC attempts to make such claims.

“Our case and the decision rendered by our judge [Torres] will provide comfort to other judges that the SEC is just misguided.”

Despite his optimism, Alderoty warned the crypto sector is still a long way away from standing on solid regulatory ground. He condemned the SEC’s regulation by enforcement approach for causing crypto laws in the U.S. to fall well behind other jurisdictions.

“We still need a rational, comprehensive and understandable regulatory framework for crypto in the U.S.,” he said. “Because of the SEC’s refusal to faithfully apply the law […] the U.S. has been visibly falling behind the rest of the world.”

Currently, XRP is changing hands for around $0.70, up nearly 43% in the last month, according to Cointelegraph data.

Magazine: Crypto regulation — Does SEC Chair Gary Gensler have the final say?

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse: ‘The SEC created this mess’

July 24, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Brad Garlinghouse has lashed out at the SEC for its "absurd" comments on the Ripple Labs case.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has condemned the United States securities regulator over recent comments from its lawyers that hint at a possible appeal to its case against Ripple.

In a July 23 tweet, Garlinghouse slammed the regulator for its "regulation by enforcement" approach, arguing it has only served to hurt retail investors.

“The SEC created this mess by proclaiming it was the cop on the crypto beat when it had no legal jurisdiction,” wrote Garlinghouse in a July 23 tweet. “Where’s that gotten us? Consumers left holding the bag in bankruptcy court while the SEC holds press conferences,” he added.

An important topic has come up about protecting retail. The SEC created this mess by proclaiming it was the cop on the crypto beat when it had no legal jurisdiction Where’s that gotten us? Consumers left holding the bag in bankruptcy court while the SEC holds press conferences.
— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) July 22, 2023

Garlinghouse’s criticism came in response to the SEC’s latest round of comments concerning Ripple, where the regulator hinted at appealing the split-decision ruling against Ripple Labs.

On July 21, the SEC used its ongoing case against Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon to air out its concerns with the decision that retail sales of XRP (XRP) on exchanges didn’t constitute the legal definition of a security.

“Respectfully, those portions of Ripple were wrongly decided, and this Court should not follow them,” SEC lawyers wrote, asserting that these sales of XRP should have been deemed securities.

“SEC staff is considering the various available avenues for further review and intends to recommend that the SEC seek such review,” they added.

Speaking directly to the SEC’s comments, Garlinghouse said it was “absurd” to blame a judge for simply applying the law.

"We all know legislation — not more regulation by enforcement — is the only way forward to provide clear rules and protect retail,” he added.

Ripple Labs chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty chimed in with comments of his own, saying that trying to explain that XRP isn’t a security is like “explaining to a flat earther that the world is round.”

Talking to someone who still doesn’t understand that the token itself is not the security is like explaining to a flat earther that the world is round.
— Stuart Alderoty (@s_alderoty) July 22, 2023

On July 17, SEC Chair Gary Gensler also expressed his disappointment over the court’s decision on the securitiestatus of XRP, adding that the regulator would continue to assess this opinion.

At the time of publication Ripple Labs' XRP is changing hands for $0.73, up nearly 50% in the last month, according to data from TradingView.

Magazine: Crypto regulation — Does SEC Chair Gary Gensler have the final say?

Ripple effect? Stellar (XLM) is catching up to XRP price gains

July 23, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

XLM has turned most overbought since April 2021, boosting risks of a 30% price decline by September.

Stellar (XLM) is basking in the glow of Ripple's partial win against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), up around 60% since the court ruling on July 13.

XRP fuels XLM price rally again

XLM price has risen over 60% since July 13, when a federal judge ruled that the XRP sales on public exchanges did not break U.S. securities laws. Still, the token is down about 20% from its local peak of $0.195 and was changing hands for about $0.154 on July 23.

*XLM/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The period of XLM's price rise has appeared alongside the token's growing positive correlation with XRP on the daily timeframe. As of July 23, the correlation coefficient between the two assets was 0.95, suggesting they are moving in a near-perfect tandem.

*XRP/USD and XLM/USD daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

The price trends in XLM and XRP markets typically mirror one another, given Stellar is a breakaway blockchain payment project founded by Ripple's co-founder Jed McCaleb. For instance, XRP's price has also surged around 60% since the Ripple win.

But XRP price risks dropping approximately 40% by September, which will likely put XLM under similar bearish stress.

XLM most overbought since April 2021

From a technical perspective, the latest XLM price rally has pushed the market's weekly relative strength index (RSI) to its most overbought levels since April 2021.

As of July 23, XLM's weekly RSI was around 72.5. Additionally, the token trades near a strong resistance confluence comprising of its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) and a horizontal line (purple) near $0.164.

*XLM/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

The indicators raise XLM's prospects of undergoing a sharp price correction in the coming weeks.

In this bearish scenario, XLM price could decline toward its 50-week EMA (the red wave) near $0.111 by September, down 30% from current price levels.

This level also coincides with XLM's support during the May-November 2022 session.

Conversely, a decisive close above the resistance confluence could have XLM/USD rally toward $0.22 by September, up 45% from current price levels. This level served as support and resistance in June 2021-April 2022.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

XRP price can fall 40% by September — Fractal analysis

July 20, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin Analysis

XRP is currently mirroring a trend from the April-June 2021 that preceded the price falling by 65% in the following months.

The double-digit percentage gains for XRP (XRP) this month may have reached the exhaustion point, reflecting the trends elsewhere in the cryptocurrency market.

This follows the euphoria surrounding Ripple's partial win versus the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, resulting in bullish calls for as high as $15 in the coming months.

$15 is reasonable I believe over 18 months or so.

If they IPO and time it correctly, could be up to $35 imo.

Make no mistake… it may not go that high… but $XRP IS breaking an all time high this cycle save some sort of pointless, vindictive SEC appeal. (Low chance) https://t.co/rrMCuOacrE
— Ben Armstrong (@Bitboy_Crypto) July 19, 2023

Nonetheless, fractal analysis of XRP's recent candlestick and price momentum patterns hints that a sharp market correction is not off the table, particularly if history repeats.

XRP price fractal preceded 65% decline

Notably, certain XRP market signals preceded a 65% price decline in Q2, 2021. These are now flashing again, namely the multi-year descending trendline resistance and an "overbought" relative strength index (RSI), as illustrated below.

*XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

The descending trendline resistance (marked as "upper trendline resistance" in the chart above) has limited XRP's upside since January 2018. This price ceiling is helped by another horizontal trendline resistance (purple) near $0.93.

Overall, the resistance confluence, coupled with an overbought RSI, now raises XRP's risks of a market correction. In this case, XRP price will likely fall toward the lower trendline support near $0.52 by September, down almost 40% from current price levels.

Interestingly, the downside target appears closer to XRP's 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave), which raises the possibility of a bounce around this level. Moreover, the wave support was the local bottom level during the price decline in Q2, 2021.

As of July 20, XRP price is up 70% month-to-date, outperforming the broader crypto market, which rose only 5% in the same period.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 5/10: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, SOL, DOT, LTC

May 10, 2023 Coin Telegraph

ADA price

Bitcoin and select cryptocurrencies are trying to start a rebound following the CPI data release but bulls may find it difficult to continue the recovery at higher levels.

The United States consumer price index rose 4.9% annually, which was slightly less than estimates of a 5% increase. The CPI’s monthly rise of 0.4% in April was in line with expectations.

Although inflation remains stubbornly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target range, traders will take comfort from the slower pace of increase. That suggests the Fed rate hikes are having their effect and further rate hikes may not be necessary.

If the Fed pivots and starts to cut rates as the FedWatch Tool projects, that may be positive for risky assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) has responded positively to the CPI data and has risen above $28,000 on May 10.

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

While the downside looks limited, the bulls may not have it easy at higher levels because of the high risk of a recession and the possibility of the banking crisis erupting again. That may keep the price stuck inside a range, which may act as a base for the next leg of the rally when that happens.

What are the important support and resistance levels to watch out for on Bitcoin and the major altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin broke below the moving averages on May 7 and nosedived to the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on May 8. The bulls are trying to defend this level with vigor but the recovery may face difficulties at higher levels.

*BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The bears will try to aggressively defend the zone between the moving averages and the resistance line. If the price turns down and breaks below the support line, the BTC/USDT pair could descend to the breakout level of $25,250.

This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it cracks, the selling could intensify and BTC price can plunge to the psychologically important level of $20,000.

Conversely, if bulls thrust the price above the resistance line, it will suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The pair could first rally to $30,000 and then attempt an up-move to $32,400.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) has been stuck between the 20-day EMA ($1,887) and the support line for the past two days but this tight-range trading is unlikely to continue for long.

*ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

If the price clears the hurdle at the moving averages, it will indicate strong buying at lower levels. The ETH/USDT pair will then try to climb to the psychological resistance at $2,000. The bears are expected to fiercely defend this level but if bulls overcome this barrier, ETH price may soar to $2,200.

Contrarily, if the price fails to sustain above the moving averages, it will suggest that bears are pouncing on every minor rally. A break below the support line could start a down move that may reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,663.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) broke below the triangle on May 7, indicating that the uncertainty resolved in favor of the bears.

*BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The selling intensified on May 8 and the BNB/USDT pair started its journey toward psychological support at $300. This level may attract buying, which could start a recovery to the 20-day EMA ($322).

If the price turns down from this level, it will enhance the prospects of a break below $300. The next support is at $280.

If bulls want to prevent the decline, they will have to push BNB price back above the 20-day EMA. If they are successful, the pair may reach the overhead resistance at $338.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) crashed below the $0.43 support on May 8 but the long tail on the candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels.

*XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The XRP/USDT pair is witnessing a tough battle near the breakdown level of $0.43. The bears are trying to flip the level into resistance while the bulls are attempting to push the price above it.

If XRP price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.40, the bearish momentum may pick up and the pair could drop to $0.36. This negative view will be invalidated in the short term if bulls kick the price above the resistance line.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) plummeted below the $0.37 support on May 8, indicating that bears are trying to seize control.

*ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The bulls are trying to stall the decline near the uptrend line but they are likely to face stiff resistance at the breakdown level of $0.37. If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the bears have flipped $0.37 into resistance.

That will enhance the prospects of a break below the uptrend line. The ADA/USDT pair may then start its decline to $0.33 and later to $0.30. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the moving averages. That will open the doors for a rally to $0.42.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) continued its downward journey and touched the solid support at $0.07 on May 8. The bulls are trying to achieve a bounce off this level.

*DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The relief rally is likely to reach the downtrend line where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense. If the price turns down from this level, the bears will again try to sink the DOGE/USDT pair below the support at $0.07. If they succeed, the pair may plunge to $0.06, which is not major support. If this level gives way, the pair may collapse to $0.05.

Conversely, if buyers thrust the price above the downtrend line, it will signal the start of a stronger recovery. DOGE pric may then rise to the overhead resistance zone of $0.10 to $0.11.

Polygon price analysis

Polygon (MATIC) nosedived below the vital support at $0.94 on May 8, indicating that the bears are in command.

*MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The sharp fall of the past few days pulled the RSI into the oversold territory, suggesting that a recovery is possible. The sellers will try to pounce on any relief rally and keep the price below the $0.94 level. If they do that, the MATIC/USDT pair could start its journey toward the strong support at $0.69.

Contrarily, a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.98) will suggest that lower levels are attracting solid buying. That may trap several aggressive bears and propel MATIC price toward the resistance line.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) turned down from the downtrend line on May 6 and fell to the strong support at $19.85 on May 8.

*SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The bulls are trying to start a recovery but the rebound lacks conviction. If Solana price turns down from the current level and plunges below $19.85, the SOL/USDT pair may fall to $18.70. This level may again act as a strong support.

If bulls want to prevent a decline, they will have to quickly drive the price above the downtrend line. If they manage to do that, SOL price could rise to $24 and subsequently to the overhead resistance at $27.12.

Polkadot price analysis

The bulls are trying to protect the strong support at $5.15 as seen from the long tail on Polkadot’s (DOT) May 8 candlestick.

*DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The recovery is likely to face stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($5.77) as the bears have been guarding this level with vigor. If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will make another attempt to sink the DOT/USDT pair below $5.15. If they can pull it off, Polkadot price risks a drop to $4.50.

Contrarily, if the relief rally pierces the 20-day EMA, DOT price may rise to the 50-day SMA ($6.10) and later reach the downtrend line. A break and close above this level will suggest that the bulls are on a comeback.

Litecoin price analysis

Litecoin (LTC) rebounded off the crucial support at $75 on May 8, indicating that the bulls are trying to arrest the decline at this level.

*LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView*

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($86) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears are in command. Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If Litecoin price turns down from this level, it will increase the likelihood of a break below $75. If that happens, the LTC/USDT pair could tumble to $65.

Contrary to this assumption, if bulls drive LTC price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bearish pressure is reducing. The pair may first recover to the 50-day SMA ($90) and thereafter dash toward $96.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Price analysis 5/1: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, MATIC, DOGE, SOL

May 1, 2023 Coin Telegraph

ADA price

Bitcoin and most major altcoins are witnessing aggressive selling at higher levels, indicating that the bears are trying to make a comeback.

JPMorgan Chase emerged as the winner in the auction to acquire the deposits and a “substantial majority of assets” of the troubled bank First Republic. This marked the failure of the third regional bank in the United States since March and laid open the vulnerabilities in the legacy banking system.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen for four consecutive months from January through April, a feat it last achieved in 2013. Will the recovery extend in May?

Historical data does not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears in May. The performance is split right in the middle with five positive and five negative monthly closes in May, according to Coinglass data.

The recovery in Bitcoin is facing a stiff hurdle above $30,000, indicating that the bulls are wary of buying at higher levels. That could be because of the upcoming Fed’s meeting on May 2 and 3, which is known to cause an increase in short-term volatility.

What are the levels that the bulls need to defend on Bitcoin and select altcoins if they want to keep the chances alive for the continuation of the up-move? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

S&P 500 index price analysis

The S&P 500 index (SPX) bounced off the 50-day simple moving average (4,035) on April 26 and has reached the overhead resistance of 4,200 on May 1.

The bears are expected to mount a strong defense in the zone between 4,200 and 4,325. If the price turns down from the overhead zone but does not fall below the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment is turning positive and traders are buying the dips.

That will increase the likelihood of a break above 4,325. If that happens, the index could accelerate toward 4,500 and then 4,650.

If bears want to gain the upper hand, they will have to quickly yank the price below the 50-day SMA. That could sink the index to the uptrend line.

U.S. dollar index price analysis

After trading between the 100.82 support and the 20-day exponential moving average (101.93) for the past few days, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) is trying to break out of the range.

The relative strength index (RSI) has been gradually rising toward the center, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing. If buyers sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the index could rally to the 50-day SMA (103.05).

Such a move will suggest that the index may extend its stay inside the 100.82 to 106 range for a few more days.

If bears want to strengthen their position further, they will have to tug the price below 100.82. That will complete a bearish head and shoulders pattern, starting a possible downtrend toward 97.50.

Bitcoin price analysis

The long wick on Bitcoin’s April 30 candlestick shows that the bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance at $30,000.

The price turned down and slumped on May 1 but a minor positive is that the bulls are fiercely protecting the 50-day SMA ($28,146). This suggests that the BTC/USDT pair may swing between $26,942 and $30,000 for a while.

Usually, a tight-range trading is followed by a range expansion. If the price continues lower and plunges below $26,942, the pair may decline to the crucial support at $25,250.

On the contrary, if the range expands above $30,000, the pair is likely to rise to $31,000 and thereafter to $32,400. A break above this level will signal a pick-up in momentum.

Ethereum price analysis

The bulls are struggling to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,896), indicating that the bears are trying to flip this level into resistance.

The 20-day EMA has started to turn down gradually and the RSI has dipped below 45, indicating that bears have a slight edge. If bears sink and sustain the price below $1,785, the ETH/USDT pair could drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,663.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will again try to propel the pair above the psychological level of $2,000. If they succeed, the pair can rally to the stiff overhead resistance of $2,200.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) rebounded off the 50-day SMA ($323) on April 30, indicating that the bulls continue to guard this level with full force.

The price action of the past few days has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision among the buyers and sellers. The 20-day EMA ($328) is sloping up gradually and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a minor advantage to the bulls.

If buyers drive the price above the triangle, it will signal the start of a new up-move. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally to the pattern target of $380 and subsequently to $400.

The bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to sink the pair below the support line of the triangle and deepen the correction to $280.

XRP price analysis

XRP’s (XRP) recovery hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($0.47) on April 29, which suggests that the sentiment is negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The bears will try to pull the price to the strong support at $0.43. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it cracks, the XRP/USDT pair may collapse to the next major support at $0.36.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that the bears are losing their grip. That could open the doors for a possible rally to the resistance line. If bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could surge toward $0.56.

Cardano price analysis

Buyers are finding it difficult to push Cardano (ADA) above the neckline, indicating that the bears are fiercely protecting the level.

A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to slip below the 50-day SMA ($0.38). The RSI is in the negative territory and the 20-day EMA ($0.40) is flattening out, indicating that bears are trying to gain the upper hand.

If ADA price plunges below $0.37, the selling could intensify and the ADA/USDT pair may descend to the next support at $0.33.

On the upside, the bulls will have to cross the obstacle at the neckline to set up a retest of $0.46. A break above this level will signal the start of a new uptrend.

Polygon price analysis

Polygon (MATIC) is facing selling by the bears on relief rallies while the bulls are trying to defend the support at $0.94.

This tight-range trading is unlikely to continue for long. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($1.03) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If bears tug the price below $0.94, the MATIC/USDT pair could nosedive toward $0.69.

On the contrary, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest the start of a stronger recovery. The pair may then rise to the resistance line where the bulls will again face stiff resistance from the bears.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.08) on April 30, indicating that the sentiment is negative and bears are using the rallies to sell.

The price has reached the support near $0.08. If this level gives way, it will suggest that bears have seized control. Sellers will then try to build upon their advantage and pull the DOGE/USDT pair to the next support at $0.07. The bulls are expected to defend the zone between $0.07 and $0.06 with all their might.

Contrarily, if the price bounces off the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are accumulating at lower levels. The upside momentum could pick up after buyers pierce the downtrend line. Dogecoin's price may then climb to $0.11.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) turned down from $24 on April 30, indicating that bears are active at higher levels. The price has reached the 50-day SMA ($21.74), which is an important level to keep an eye on.

The short-term advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if they manage to sink the price below the 50-day SMA. The SOL/USDT pair could then slump to the strong support at $18.70. Buyers are likely to guard this level with force. If the price rebounds off $18.70, the bulls will again try to clear the hurdle at $24.

If they can pull it off, the pair will attempt a rally to $27.12. A downturn from this level may result in rangebound price action between $27.12 and $18.70 for some time. Alternatively, if the bulls catapult the price above $27.12, the next stop could be as high as $39.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Stellar’s XLM bounces 15% two days after hitting record low versus XRP

March 31, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

XLM price is playing catchup to XRP's March gains, quickly rising 25% versus the U.S. dollar while the XLM/XRP pair bounces from record lows.

The price of Stellar (XLM) rebounded 15% versus its arch-rival XRP (XRP) two days after the XLM/XRP pair set a record low of 0.181.

Notably, the XLM/XRP pair rose to its intraday high of 0.20 XRP on March 31, a move that coincided with a decoupling between Stellar and XRP in the U.S. dollar market. For instance, XLM's price has jumped over 11% since March 29 versus XRP's 3% decline.

*XLM/XRP weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

XLM price eyes 10% gains versus XRP in April

On a broader timeframe, XLM has dropped 89% versus its peak of 1.655 XRP in January 2021. Interestingly, the peak formed a month after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple for allegedly selling securities in the form of XRP tokens.

The SEC vs. Ripple case is now nearing its conclusion with legal experts favoring a win for Ripple.

Meanwhile, XLM continues its long-term downtrend against XRP, though a rebound in April is on the cards.

On the daily chart, the XLM/XRP's ongoing recovery started at its multi-month descending trendline resistance, which constitutes a falling channel, as shown below.

*XLM/XRP daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The pair now looks toward flipping the 0.198-0.207 XRP resistance range as support to eye a run-up toward 0.22 XRP in April, up 10% from current prices.

XLM looks equally bullish versus the U.S. dollar

Stellar price rallied more than 25% in March to reach $0.113, its highest level in four months. XLM is now positioned for a potential short-term price correction in the first week of April, followed by a rebound rally to new yearly highs.

At the core of this bullish outlook is a classic technical pattern dubbed cup-and-handle. The pattern forms when the price undergoes a U-shaped recovery, or cup, followed by a consolidation period, i.e. the handle, all under a common resistance level called "neckline."

Meanwhile, it resolves after the price breaks above the neckline and rises by as much as the distance between the cup's bottom and neckline.

Notably, XLM has been painting a similar cup-and-handle since November 2022. XLM/USD entered the pattern's breakout stage during its price boom in March and is now 20% away from reaching the breakout target near $0.131.

Nonetheless, XLM's daily relative strength index (RSI) has entered its overbought zone above 70, suggesting a consolidation or correction period in the first week of April. As it happens, XLM price risks correcting toward its neckline at around $0.095, down 12% from current price levels.

Related: Why is XRP price up today?

Ideally, traders perceive such corrections as a method to analyze cup-and-handle's breakout strength. So the breakout scenario will be confirmed when the price bounces from the neckline, accompanied by a rise in trading volumes.

Conversely, if the price closes below the neckline with a rise in volumes, it risks invalidating the cup-and-handle breakout scenario altogether.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Why is XRP price up today?

March 9, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Can Ripple pull off a win against the SEC? XRP price has been seeing moderate gains despite a general cryptocurrency market pullback.

XRP price extended its gains on March 9, rising around 1.5% to $0.40, despite a general downturn in the cryptocurrency market.

XRP price four-day winning streak

The rally in the XRP/USD pair started on March 5 with the XRP market capitalization gaining over 10% in the past four days.

In contrast, the entire crypto market's cap has dropped by about 5% in the same period, with top coins Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) losing by 4.5% and 4%, respectively.

Ripple scores early win versus SEC

XRP's gains appear as investors pin their hopes on Ripple winning its long-running courtroom battle against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

On March 6, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres issued a ruling on motions filed by Ripple and the SEC to exclude the comments of expert witnesses from the upcoming summary judgment. She approved and denied the motions in part, underscoring no clear winner and loser in the matter.

However, removing the so-called "Expert No. 1," Patrick Doody, who the SEC roped as its primary witness to testify about the perceptions of a reasonable XRP purchaser, led XRP market participants to believe that Ripple may end up winning the lawsuit.

@SECGov VS. @Ripple . Judge Torres excludes witness #1 witness Patrick Doody (expert hired to analyze our expectations as #XRPHolders ) . How will the SEC prove that we expected a profit if Doody is excluded? Don't sleep on this ruling, this is a big deal. #XRP
— RippleEffect (@CommonsenseXRP) March 7, 2023

In other words, the SEC's argument that Ripple sold XRP as an unregistered security to gullible investors may fall flat.

As Cointelegraph reported in January, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said that he expects the lawsuit to conclude "in the coming single digit months."

35% XRP price rally ahead?

From a technical perspective, XRP price may risks declining in the coming weeks as it retests a multi-month descending trendline as resistance.

*XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

The trendline has served as a capitulation point for traders since April 2021, which raises its possibility of sending the XRP price lower in the current scenario. A successful pullback would risks pushing XRP toward $0.30, a more recent support level down 20% from current price levels.

Conversely, a breakout above the trendline may result in XRP price rallying toward its 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) near $0.50, up 35% from current price levels, by April 2023.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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