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Bitcoin crashes below $30K, but on-chain data suggests accumulation is brewing

Despite the Bitcoin markets slipping below $30,000, on-chain data suggests accumulation may be underway, as $1 billion worth of BTC leaves exchanges each month.

Despite Bitcoin crashing below $30,000 for the first time in one month, on-chain metrics suggest whales may be steadily accumulating BTC.

According to Glassnode’s July 19 “The Week On-Chain” report, the Bitcoin reserves of centralized exchanges have continued to evaporate despite the recently sustained bearish momentum, with an average of 36,000 Bitcoin (worth roughly $1 billion) being withdrawn from exchanges monthly.

Glassnode infers the shrinking Bitcoin reserves on exchanges as indicating large investors moving BTC into secure storage, rather than leaving their coins on exchanges in preparation for selling.

Bitcoin net position change on exchanges: Glassnode

Glassnode also identified a recent increase in the number of entities hodling Bitcoin since May, increasing from roughly 250,000 to nearly 300,000 today. Glassnode describes “an entity” as a unique on-chain cluster of associated addresses.

The on-chain analytics provider noted that the number of “sending entities” — unique address clusters associated with selling — has fallen by roughly one-third from 150,000 to 100,000, while “receiving entities” — addresses linked to accumulation or holding — have increased by roughly than 20% from 190,000 to 250,000 over the same period.

Bitcoin changes in on-chain entities: Glassnode

Despite emphasizing signals suggesting accumulation, Glassnode noted heavily divided market sentiment, predicting extreme volatility may be imminent for the markets:

“We have an extremely divided market, and one with a likely expansion of volatility just around the corner.”

Related: Traders are withdrawing 2,000 BTC from centralized exchanges daily

It added that miners are now also in accumulation mode despite expenses incurred in the great migration in the wake of China’s mining crackdown. The miner net position change metric indicates that more than 3,300 BTC per month is currently being accumulated.

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Traders are withdrawing 2,000 BTC from centralized exchanges daily

Surging BTC outflows from centralized exchanges suggest the Bitcoin markets could be in an accumulation.

The number of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges has consistently fallen since late May, with roughly 2,000 BTC (worth roughly $66 million at current prices) flowing out of exchanges daily.

Glassnode’s July 12 Week On-Chain report found that Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges have fallen back to levels not seen since April, the month that saw BTC blast to its all-time high of roughly $65,000.

The researchers noted that during the bull run leading up to this peak, relentless depletion of exchange coin reserves was a key theme. Glassnode concludes that much of this BTC went to the Grayscale GBTC Trust or was accumulated by institutions, driving “a persistent net outflow from exchanges.”

However, when Bitcoin prices slumped in May, this trend reversed as coins were sent to exchanges for liquidation. Now, the net transfer volume has moved back into negative territory again as outflows increase.

“On a 14-day moving average basis, the last two weeks in particular have seen a more positive return to exchange outflows, at a rate of ~2k BTC per day.”
Net BTC transfer volume to/from exchanges: Glassnode

The report also noted that the proportion of on-chain transaction fees represented by exchange deposits declined to 14% dominance this past week, following a brief peak to around 17% in May.

On-chain fees associated with withdrawals saw a notable bounce from 3.7% up to 5.4% this month, suggesting an increasing preference for accumulation over sales, it added.

Related: Bitcoin price falls under $33K, but on-chain data hints at BTC accumulation

The fall in exchange reserves appears to have coincided with an uptick in capital flows to decentralized finance protocols over the past fortnight.

According to DeFiLlama, the total value locked has increased by 21% since June 26 as it climbed from $92 billion to $111 billion.

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Willy Woo: ‘Rick Astley’ hodlers a key force again and on-chain signals suggest ‘recovery’

Those that are never gonna give up BTC are still accumulating according to the analyst.

Bitcoin technical analyst Willy Woo believes that this is not a bear market because on-chain indicators are signaling a recovery and the asset is still being bought by long-term hodlers.

The popular analyst’s comments came in an interview on the “What Bitcoin Did podcast on June 28. Woo stated that he does not believe that Bitcoin is in a typical bear market due to signs of accumulation showing on-chain.

Referring to the 1980’s hit song “Never Gonna Give You Up” by British pop artist Rick Astley, Woo stated:

“The ‘Rick Astley’ is the holder that keeps buying and never tends to sell much ... And of course Rick was very active over 2021, and then suddenly all the coins moved away from Rick to the weak hands — the speculative traders that buy and sell. Now we’re seeing that cross back into moving to Rick.”

He added that we are currently in a speculative phase and those coins that were sold earlier this year are slowly being absorbed by long-term holders.

Podcast host Peter McCormack revealed that he hasn’t sold any crypto assets yet and is still confident because there is “still too much going on and good stuff happening”.

Related: 3 things traders are saying about Bitcoin and the state of the bull market

Analyzing the current Bitcoin price chart, Woo stated that it is a cycle unlike any we’ve ever seen as the underlying structure is completely different. He stated:

“The price right now is going sideways bearish, it looks like a Wyckoffian accumulation price pattern and so if that plays out we should have that last wick down to $28K-$29K which should have been the final test of the bottom. Everything on-chain looks like it’s in recovery.”

Analytics provider Santiment appears to have noticed similar data and it noted that the supply of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges has steadily fallen back down and is getting locked away for safekeeping by hodlers.

Commenting on current regulatory pressure, which has escalated in China, the U.S. and the U.K., Woo stated:

“It’s like Bitcoin is now fighting the Final Boss in a video game … it’s really up against the central bankers, and much earlier than we ever thought.”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading within its six-week range bound channel, down 3.7% over the past 24 hours at $34,653 according to CoinGecko. As reported by Cointelegraph, traders have been eying three key areas for the monthly candle closure.

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Data Shows Bitcoin Addresses in Accumulation Captures Fresh New Highs

Data Shows Bitcoin Addresses in Accumulation Captures Fresh New HighsAfter bitcoin prices dipped to a low of $30,066 per unit last week, lots of people have been focused on the panic sellers. Meanwhile, when bitcoin prices plunged, the number of bitcoin addresses in accumulation tapped an all-time high at 545,115 addresses. Number of Bitcoin Accumulation Addresses Hit New Highs Bitcoin (BTC) prices slid from […]

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Three-quarters of circulating BTC last changed hands for less than $10,800

After a recent spike in profit-taking, long-term Bitcoin investors are back to offloading coins at the same rate they were in 2020.

Research from on-chain analytics provider Glassnode has found that roughly three-quarters of circulating Bitcoin last moved on the blockchain when prices were below $10,800, suggesting most market participants are long-term holders.

Glassnode’s March 29 ‘Week on Chain report found that 25.43% of circulating BTC last traded between the prices of $10,800 and $58,800. With Bitcoin trading for $10,800 just six months ago, the data suggests one-in-four circulating BTC last changed hands during either Q2 2020 or Q1 2021.

The report notes the number of long-term Bitcoin bulls continues to increase, with many coins that have remained dormant since early in the current market cycle now being classified by Glassnode as long-term holdings, or LTH — coins that have not moved on-chain for at least 155 days.

As a result, the number of coins being classified as entering into “illiquid supply” has surged in 2021. The Illiquid Supply Change metric has shown that the 30-day change in supply is moving from a liquid or readily traded state into an illiquid state representing HODLed coins.

The report observed that accumulation rates exceeding 130k BTC per month has been consistently maintained throughout this bull market.

Glassnode’s Coin Days Destroyed metric, or CDD, also points to increasing hodling among long-term investors, with CDD suggesting seasoned investors are again realizing gains at a rate comparable to 2020 after a surge of profit-taking between November through January.

“The take home message here is that investors and traders have continued to buy into BTC, throughout this bull market,” said Glassnode.

Entity Adjusted CDD: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s “Hodlwave” metric, which visually breaks down Bitcoin’s supply based on when coins last moved on-chain, shows a spike in both long-term hodling and short-term circulation amid the current market conditions.

According to Unchained Capital’s Hodlwaves, two-thirds of Bitccoin’s supply has changed hands in the six months, roughly half of which last moved during January or February. Approximately 5% of BTC’s supply was active during the past seven days.

Hodlwaves: Unchained Capital

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading up 4% over the past 24 hours at $57,500 according to CoinGecko.

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