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Cardano chart painting a bull flag for $3 ADA price ahead of ERC-20 converter launch

A classic technical pattern points to a 20% price rally in the Cardano market, with its profit target sitting above $3.

Cardano (ADA) appears to be heading toward a new record high as its downside move takes the shape of a bull flag.

In detail, the ADA/USD exchange rate plunged 16.91% to $2.47, but the pair’s decline came after a strong move higher, wherein it surged over 120% month-to-date to reach an all-time high of $2.97 on Monday. Therefore, the latest declines have given the impression that Cardano is undergoing a brief pause before it resumes its uptrend.

Part of the upside analogy stems from the downward sloping channel itself — two parallel trendlines enveloping the price moves. In addition, the consolidation accompanies falling volumes, indicating a weaker response from traders to pursue the downtrend.

As a result, the shape appears like a bull flag, as shown in the chart below.

Cardano 4H price chart featuring bull flag setup. Source: TradingView

Typically, bull flags prompt traders to enter the market at the pattern’s bottom or breakout above the upper trendline’s high. In doing so, traders target levels located at a distance equal to the size of the flag pole — i.e., the height of the uptrend that preceded the bull flag formation.

Cardano’s flagpole is $0.58-long. As a result, ADA/USD’s bull flag target is $3.05 if measured from the pattern’s bottom at $2.47, about 23.65% higher.

More bullish cues come from the 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the velvet wave). Traders have shown their intention to hold 50-4H EMA as interim support, somewhat validating a breakout move for ADA/USD if it manages to float above the wave. 

The 50-4H EMA has been acting as a market entry level since July 21, 2021.

Additional support confluence for ADA/USD comes from the ascending channel’s lower trendline shown in the chart below. The pattern points toward a major price rebound, with a profit target at its upper trendline.

Cardano price chart featuring ascending channel pattern. Source: TradingView

In doing so, it could have ADA achieve its bull flag target midway. 

Supportive fundamentals 

The bullish technical setups emerged majorly due to euphoria surrounding Cardano’s long-awaited smart contracts feature, set to go live on Sept. 12 via the Alonzo upgrade.

The news boosted hopes that Cardano would be able to rival Ethereum, the biggest smart contracts platform, which has lately struggled with network congestion and higher transaction fees. As a result, demand for Cardano’s native asset, ADA, has been steadily growing.

In the latest Cardano 360 event, its top executives announced further plans to attract Ethereum blockchain users. Francisco Landino, project manager at IOHK — the research and development arm behind Cardano — said Cardano would launch the testnet of an ERC-20 migration tool next week. 

Related: Cardano Foundation partners with Coinfirm for FATF and 6AMLD compliance

As a result, users will be able to transfer their Ethereum standard tokens (ERC-20) to Cardano’s native blockchain. SingularityNET, a decentralized artificial intelligence network, will migrate its native token, AGIX, from Ethereum to Cardano.

During the event, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson also said that over 100 companies have been planning to move to Cardano in the coming months.

The upside outlook also came amid concerns over Cardano’s efforts to gain legitimacy from financial regulators despite championing itself as a “decentralized public blockchain.”

Namely, the Cardano Foundation has partnered with Confirm, a blockchain analytics firm, to boost its compliance efforts to fall in line with the Financial Action Task Force’s guidelines. Nevertheless, Weiss Crypto Ratings, a rating agency for cryptocurrencies, warned that Cardano’s decision would make its network “censorship-prone, politicized, and manipulated.”

Hoskinson responded in a video message that Cardano’s partnership with Confirm provides clarity to businesses, thereby enabling “more adoption in all industries,” whether regulated or unregulated.

The ADA/USD exchange rate was $2.61 at the time of writing, up over 6.5% from its sessional low.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Cardano price eyes $3, but ADA chart fractal hints at a potential 40% correction

The ADA/USD exchange rate has moved further into its "overbought" area, suggesting that a trend correction might follow suit.

Cardano blockchain's native asset ADA reached a new record high on Aug. 23 as investors pinned hopes on an upcoming smart contracts feature that expects to boost the cryptocurrency's adoption.

The ADA/USD exchange rate topped out at $2.899 around 09:00 UTC, raising anticipations that it would easily close above $3 in the coming sessions.

Many analysts, including pseudonymous chartist PostXBT, noted that the Cardano token had entered a "price discovery mode." Meanwhile, David Gokhshtein hinted that ADA/USD might continue its bull run until Sep. 12, the day Cardano would integrate smart contracts feature to its blockchain via a so-called "Alonzo" upgrade.

In detail, Alonzo upgrade introduces a native smart contract development language called Plutus to the Cardano ecosystem. Plutus is already available for testing and brings functional programming to smart contract creation to everyday users.

As a result, ADA bulls anticipate the token's adoption to boom in the sessions ahead as Cardano attracts dapp developers—operating in the emerging decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFT) sector—to its smart contracts ecosystem.

Overbought risks

But Cardano's technical indicators predict a short-term shock, something that might have the ADA/USD corrected lower by as much as 40% despite maintaining its long-term bullish outlook.

The Cardano token's daily relative strength index (RSI) has ventured deeper into its overbought territory, at around 83. Traders consider an RSI reading above 70 as overvalued. As a result, it prompts them to sell the asset to secure maximum profits.

ADA/USD daily chart featuring RSI correction fractal. Source: TradingView.com

For instance, a run-up in ADA/USD rates in the first quarter of 2021 pushed its RSI reading above 90. Later, the pair started consolidating sideways while maintaining support near its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the scarlet wave).

Related: Cardano defies Peter Brandt’s 90% crash warning, ADA price doubles to new high

ADA price now sits atop 114% month-to-date and 1,511% year-to-date profits. At the same time, an oversold RSI pictures an interim profit-taking scenario. So if the Q1/2021 fractal repeats, ADA's next line of support comes to be near its 50-day EMA at $1.73, almost 40% below the current prices of $2.83. 

But a correction does not necessarily exhaust Cardano's long-term bullish outlook. Given the potential success of its Alonzo upgrade, the project could end up attracting more speculative upside bids for its ADA token. As a result, the ADA/USD exchange rate expects to remain in a price discovery mode.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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