Altcoin Analysis

The Litecoin halving is just three months away and LTC price is well-positioned for some massive gains, argues the founder.

Litecoin (LTC) can make some big gains versus Bitcoin (BTC), particularly as the August halving event gets closer, according to Litecoin's creator Charlie Lee.

Litecoin up 85% since record lows versus Bitcoin

Lee argues that LTC/BTC could rally to 0.025 BTC, or over 700%, in the next bull cycle, with Litecoin having "higher throughput by design, scalability with extension blocks, better fungibility, and privacy from MWEB."

Lee:

"I can see an upside target of 10% (0.025 LTC/BTC). In the next bull market, 5% (0.0125) shouldn't be too hard to achieve. I honestly don't see it going much below 1% (0.0025) on the downside. The next halving will be in ~92 days. This is going to be fun."

His statements appeared after Litecoin's 85% price recovery from its record low of 0.001716 BTC in June 2022. LTC is still down about 90% below its record high of 0.051 BTC from November 2013, owing to rising competition in the altcoin market.

Litecoin halving looms

LTC's recovery in recent months has been accompanied by growing buzz around its upcoming block reward halving.

The Litecoin block reward to miners will be cut by 50% from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC sometime in August 2023.

As a result, new LTC supply will drop by 50%, which should, at least in theory, make LTC more scarce on the market and therefore, go up in price.

Historically, the months leading to Litecoin halving typically prompted traders to accumulate LTC. For instance, the first halving event in August 2015 preceded a 450% price rally versus Bitcoin.

However, the months before the second halving event saw limited gains as Bitcoin's crypto dominance grew amid the U.S.-China trade war. But, as a rule, LTC/BTC falls sharply after halving events, suggesting the same could happen after August 2023.

LTC price technicals hint at a similar scenario, with LTC/BTC printing what appears to be a bear flag pattern, as shown below.

The pair may bounce toward the upper trendline of its bear flag, which coincided with the 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near 0.0035 BTC ahead of the halving. But its bear flag target sits around 0.0024 BTC, down 20% from current price levels.

Litecoin price to $100 by June?

Litecoin has fared better versus the U.S. dollar in the months leading up to the last two halvings. LTC's price grew about 250% ahead of the first halving and 500% ahead of the second when measured from their sessional lows, respectively. 

The price has undergone a similar upside trajectory ahead of the August halving, with LTC up 120% from its sessional low of around $40. And it may continue to rise in the coming months, based on a mix of technical and on-chain indicators.

For instance, Litecoin is undervalued relative to its fair value, according to Glassnode's MVRV-Z score of -0.139.

Related: Why is Litecoin price up today?

The MVRV-Z score represents the ratio between the market and realized cap. So when the market value is significantly higher than realized value, it historically indicates a market top (red zone). Meanwhile, the opposite indicates market bottoms (green zone), as shown below.

Litecoin has entered the green zone, which typically precedes strong bullish reversals.

From a technical standpoint, LTC price is well-positioned for a rebound after retesting its multi-month ascending trendline as support.

In this case, LTC/USD can climb toward its horizontal resistance level near $100, up about 20% from current prices.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.