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Solana ETF approvals are extremely unlikely this year, though VanEck’s head of digital assets, continues to believe in them.
United States Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have a “near-zero” chance of getting greenlit under the current administration after the regulator reportedly rejected a filing necessary for their approval.
“A snowball’s chance in hell of approval unless there’s a change in leadership,” said Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas in an X post on Aug. 20.
Only days earlier on Aug. 16, reports emerged that Cboe had removed the 19b-4 filings for two prospective Solana ETFs from its website’s “Pending Rule Changes” page.
The approved spot Ether ETF applicants included BlackRock, Fidelity and Grayscale, and are expected to bring billions of dollars into the ecosystem.
Spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds have been given the final approval to begin trading in the United States on July 23.
On July 22, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission approved the final S-1 registration statements necessary for their launch on their respective stock exchanges, including the Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange and Chicago Board Options Exchange.
The successful spot Ether ETF issuers include BlackRock, Fidelity, 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, VanEck and Invesco Galaxy.
Three key Ethereum price metrics suggest ETH is primed for a rally above $3,400.
Ether (ETH) price experienced an 18% drop to $2,826 between July 1 and July 8 but has since partially recovered. Investors are understandably disappointed, particularly since $313 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated during this period. Although the current price of $3,100 is still below the previous $3,400 support level, Ether traders are gradually regaining their confidence, as indicated by onchain and derivatives metrics.
Even if the launch of the spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States takes longer than expected, strong fundamentals suggest a likely price rebound soon. Gary Gensler, Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, recently stated that approvals for S-1 filings are expected "sometime in the summer," which means before the end of September. However, the exact timeline remains uncertain, leaving traders with reasons to maintain a level of skepticism.
The excitement for the eventual launch grows as similar spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs have seen $654 million in inflows over the past three days. Matt Hougan, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, suggested that spot Ethereum ETFs could attract up to $15 billion in inflows in the first 18 months of trading. Even if this estimate is off by 50%, analysts believe that the Ether price will benefit from the portion of the supply that is locked in staking and decentralized applications (DApps).
Lack of enthusiasm toward cryptocurrencies comes from regulatory uncertainty, but there’s also some concern on the macroeconomic side
Ether (ETH) has been trading below $3,750 for the past three days, despite the imminent launch of the coin’s spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. Some argue that the lack of bullish momentum for ETH is due to the lack of clarity on how long the individual S-1 fund filing approvals by the regulator could take. Regardless, Ether investors’ bullishness according to derivatives metrics has plunged to a 3-week low.
But, even if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves each of the filings from BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, and other firms this week, investors fear that the current market conditions do not favor demand for the Ethereum ETFs. Part of the lack of enthusiasm toward cryptocurrencies comes from regulatory uncertainty, but there’s also some concern on the macroeconomic side as the real estate market displays further signs of stress.
Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken are facing court actions for supposedly failing to register as brokers while offering securities investments. The U.S. SEC and the U.S. Department of Justice also charged crypto companies that included privacy tools such as Samourai Wallet and Tornado Cash. Furthermore, regulators claim that Ether staking services intermediation can be deemed securities, given that there is a promise of returns in exchange for the work of others.
Regulatory uncertainty and volatile macroeconomic events may weaken further upside in the BTC price in the near term.
Bitcoin (BTC) registered a 5.9% gain between June 2 and 5, but its rally was halted at $71,746. This movement was supported by a nearly $1 billion worth of inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds, indicating strong demand from institutional investors.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum was also fueled by the significant growth of the U.S. banking sector’s unrealized losses. However, despite favorable conditions, including a more crypto-friendly stance from U.S. lawmakers, Bitcoin was unable to break above $72,000.
According to Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, regulatory uncertainty has hindered financial advisers from increasing their crypto exposure. Nevertheless, Hougan believes the U.S. is moving toward regulatory clarity, a shift that began when Democrats voted to repeal the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Staff Accounting Bulletin 121.
A multi-million bet on “Ethereum ETF approved by May 31” resolved to a “Yes” on Polymarket as news from the SEC broke, but the losing side argues it's not over yet.
Polymarket users who lost money by betting against the approval of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are crying foul toward the decentralized betting platform, arguing the bet is still on.
One betting market on the blockchain platform saw over $13.2 million worth of bets placed on whether an Ether ETF would be approved by May 31 — but it didn’t exactly detail what “approved” meant.
The market closed at a “Yes” result on May 23, after the Securities and Exchange Commission greenlit the 19b-4 filings for multiple Ether ETFs. Polymarket's logs show the result was briefly disputed but ultimately resolved with the same “Yes" outcome.
That doesn't mean the securities regulator can't still pursue action against actors in the staking domain, industry analysts and lawyers warn.
The approval of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds is “implicit recognition” from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission that Ether is not a security, according to industry pundits.
One even suggests this could extend to other tokens as well.
"These are commodities-based trust shares, so the SEC, by approving these, is explicitly saying they’re not going to go after Ether as a security,” noted Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart in a discussion with Ryan Sean Adams on the Bankless podcast.