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Is $4,000 Ethereum a distant dream? Futures premium plunge to 3-week low

Lack of enthusiasm toward cryptocurrencies comes from regulatory uncertainty, but there’s also some concern on the macroeconomic side

Ether (ETH) has been trading below $3,750 for the past three days, despite the imminent launch of the coin’s spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. Some argue that the lack of bullish momentum for ETH is due to the lack of clarity on how long the individual S-1 fund filing approvals by the regulator could take. Regardless, Ether investors’ bullishness according to derivatives metrics has plunged to a 3-week low.

But, even if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves each of the filings from BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, and other firms this week, investors fear that the current market conditions do not favor demand for the Ethereum ETFs. Part of the lack of enthusiasm toward cryptocurrencies comes from regulatory uncertainty, but there’s also some concern on the macroeconomic side as the real estate market displays further signs of stress.

Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken are facing court actions for supposedly failing to register as brokers while offering securities investments. The U.S. SEC and the U.S. Department of Justice also charged crypto companies that included privacy tools such as Samourai Wallet and Tornado Cash. Furthermore, regulators claim that Ether staking services intermediation can be deemed securities, given that there is a promise of returns in exchange for the work of others.

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3 reasons why Bitcoin failed to break above $72K

Regulatory uncertainty and volatile macroeconomic events may weaken further upside in the BTC price in the near term.

Bitcoin (BTC) registered a 5.9% gain between June 2 and 5, but its rally was halted at $71,746. This movement was supported by a nearly $1 billion worth of inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds, indicating strong demand from institutional investors.

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum was also fueled by the significant growth of the U.S. banking sector’s unrealized losses. However, despite favorable conditions, including a more crypto-friendly stance from U.S. lawmakers, Bitcoin was unable to break above $72,000.

According to Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, regulatory uncertainty has hindered financial advisers from increasing their crypto exposure. Nevertheless, Hougan believes the U.S. is moving toward regulatory clarity, a shift that began when Democrats voted to repeal the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Staff Accounting Bulletin 121.

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Polymarket gets backlash over ‘approved’ outcome on $13M Ethereum ETF bet

A multi-million bet on “Ethereum ETF approved by May 31” resolved to a “Yes” on Polymarket as news from the SEC broke, but the losing side argues it's not over yet.

Polymarket users who lost money by betting against the approval of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are crying foul toward the decentralized betting platform, arguing the bet is still on. 

One betting market on the blockchain platform saw over $13.2 million worth of bets placed on whether an Ether ETF would be approved by May 31 — but it didn’t exactly detail what “approved” meant.

The market closed at a “Yes” result on May 23, after the Securities and Exchange Commission greenlit the 19b-4 filings for multiple Ether ETFs. Polymarket's logs show the result was briefly disputed but ultimately resolved with the same “Yes" outcome.

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SEC’s ETF decision means ETH and ’a lot’ of other tokens are not securities

That doesn't mean the securities regulator can't still pursue action against actors in the staking domain, industry analysts and lawyers warn.

The approval of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds is “implicit recognition” from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission that Ether is not a security, according to industry pundits.

One even suggests this could extend to other tokens as well. 

"These are commodities-based trust shares, so the SEC, by approving these, is explicitly saying they’re not going to go after Ether as a security,” noted Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart in a discussion with Ryan Sean Adams on the Bankless podcast.

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Ethereum price soars on spot ETF rumor — How are ETH options markets positioned?

Ethereum price soared to a 2-month high at $3,700 today as analysts significantly boosted their expectation that a spot ETH ETF could be approved.

On May 20, the price of Ether (ETH) surged over 18% after Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg, raised the approval odds for the Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) from 25% to 75%. Balchunas noted that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission likely faced political pressure, as their previous position showed little engagement with ETF applicants.

Balchunas further mentioned that the SEC is reportedly asking exchanges like the NYSE and Nasdaq to update their filings, although there has been no official confirmation from the regulator. Nonetheless, Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute and president of the ETF Store, stated that the final decision is still pending regarding the registration requirement for individual funds (S-1s).

According to Geraci, the SEC could approve the exchange rule changes (19b-4s) separately from the fund’s registration (S-1), which could technically be delayed beyond the May 23 deadline for VanEck’s Ethereum spot ETF request. This allows the regulator additional time to review and approve these documents, considering the complexities and risks associated with structures involving Proof-of-Stake (PoS) cryptocurrencies.

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Ether surges 18% amid new hope for spot Ether ETFs approvals

If a 19b-4 spot Ether ETF filing be approved, analysts anticipate the SEC won’t immediately sign off on the S-1, which is required for the products to launch.

Ether (ETH) spiked 18% over 24 hours amid new speculation that spot Ether exchange-traded funds could be approved this week — despite months of pessimism.

According to Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, there has been “chatter” that the United States securities regulator is asking applicants to accelerate their 19b-4 filings.

This has prompted the pair to raise their approval odds from 25% to 75%.

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Analysts Boost Odds for Ethereum ETF Approval to 75% Amid SEC Chatter

Analysts Boost Odds for Ethereum ETF Approval to 75% Amid SEC ChatterOn May 20, 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence exchange-traded fund (ETF) senior analyst Eric Balchunas informed his 274,000 X followers that he and his colleague James Seyffart had increased their expectations for the approval of a spot-based ethereum ETF. “Update: [James Seyffart] and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from […]

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Ethereum price data casts doubt on the strength of ETH’s support at $3K

ETH derivatives data shows pro traders’ appetite for risk declining, placing pressure on the $3,000 support level.

Ether (ETH) price plummeted by 21% between April 9 and April 14, hitting a 50-day low. Although it has recouped some of its losses, Ether continues to show signs of weakness following a failed attempt to breach the $3,200 resistance on April 14. Traders now question if the $3,000 support will hold for longer.

Investors are cautiously optimistic about the potential approval of a spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) in May. However, the mixed signals from on-chain and derivatives data suggest the possibility of further corrections before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) makes its decision.

Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck investment firm, expressed doubt that the spot Ether ETFs would receive approval in May. He pointed to the SEC's extended inactivity on a list of seven pending applications, including those from major firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK 21Shares, and VanEck.

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Crypto.com granted Dubai crypto license

The license is pending operational approval and allows Crypto.com’s Dubai entity to offer exchange, broker-dealer, and lending and borrowing services.

Crypto exchange Crypto.com’s Dubai entity was granted a Virtual Assets Service Provider (VASP) license by the city’s regulator, pending operational approval.

In a Nov. 14 press release, Crypto.com said that once fully approved by Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), its local business CRO DAX Middle East FZE can offer retail and institutional investors exchange, broker-dealer, and lending and borrowing services.

Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek said in a statement that it looks forward to working with regulators to contribute to Dubai’s crypto industry and said the city is a “leading market when designing effective regulation.”

In March 2022, the exchange pinned Dubai as its Middle East and North Africa hub. It received a provisional license from VARA in June 2022, followed by a minimal viable product (MVP) preparatory license in March this year.

Related: Standard Chartered’s venture arm to set up crypto fund in UAE

With United States regulators taking action against crypto firms, Dubai has become a sought-after destination for crypto businesses seeking legal clarity — with many firms eyeing the crypto-friendly jurisdiction as an emerging digital assets hub in the Middle East. 

Binance Dubai General Manager Alex Chehad said that unlike the U.S., Dubai and the United Arab Emirates have provided a clear regulatory framework for crypto firms to follow, which made it easier for large companies like Binance to establish permanent headquarters in the region. 

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What happens if SEC doesn’t appeal Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF ruling?

The SEC must appeal Grayscale’s win in a D.C. Appeals Court on Oct. 13, or it will have to approve — or try to delay — the firm’s Bitcoin ETF bid.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission will soon reach its deadline to appeal the court decision that ruled in favor of Grayscale Investments, forcing the regulator to review the fund manager’s application for a spot Bitcoin (BTC) fund.

While many observers don’t believe the securities regulator will attempt to appeal the court’s decision, analysts say there could still be ways for the SEC to delay approval of Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF conversion.

On Oct. 13, the SEC must either appeal the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, request the Appeals Court revisit its ruling, or follow the court’s August order and review Grayscale’s bid to change its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF.

In an Oct. 12 post responding to an X user's question, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balcunas said an appeal was unlikely, though there could still be other hurdles happening.

“We think [an] appeal is a longshot [...] But there’s always a chance of something else happening.”

Meanwhile, in a separate post, fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said that an SEC attempt to deny on new grounds was unlikely and a “very difficult needle to thread” but it could “find ways to keep delaying.”

A September note from law firm Ropes & Gray warned the GBTC application could be sent back for review to the SEC, giving the regulator another chance to reject it on a different basis.

“In this scenario, the new denial could itself then be subject to another appeal by GBTC to the D.C. Circuit,” wrote the firm.

Another delay scenario, according to Ropes & Gray, would be if the New York Stock Exchange has to make a new filing to list GBTC — then it is possible the SEC could take up to eight months to reach a decision on the ETF.

Related: House committee chairman threatens SEC chair with subpoena, but not over crypto

Currently, at least seven spot Bitcoin ETF applications are before the regulator for approval.

Despite all being filed with the regulator earlier in 2023, all have faced delays and pushbacks from the SEC leaving the final approval deadlines for most around March 2024 or later.

However, most eyes are on Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF conversion application because if the SEC approves it — the regulator could struggle to find reasons to knock back other applications.

The likelihood of an approved spot Bitcoin ETF this year is 75%, according to Bloomberg analysts who updated the odds after Grayscale’s court win. The odds jump to a 95% likelihood of approval by the end of 2024.

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