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‘There will be many more zeros’ — Kevin O’Leary on FTX-like collapses to come

The Shark Tank star said all unregulated exchanges are seeing “massive outflows” right now, and rightly so.

Unregulated crypto exchanges will continue to fall like dominoes post-FTX, with plenty more “meltdowns” to come, warns Shark Tank star and investor Kevin O’Leary.

O’Leary, a former spokesperson and proponent for the now-bankrupt FTX exchange, told Kitco anchor David Lin in a Jan. 17 interview that the collapse was just one in a long line of “unregulated exchanges” likely to fail:

“If you’re asking me if there’s going to be another meltdown to zero? Absolutely. 100% it’ll happen, and it’ll keep happening over, and over and over again.”

Unregulated exchanges are those that aren't subject to regular auditing, aren’t registered and regulated by a securities commission, and don’t operate under rules similar to traditional stock exchanges and brokerages.

“Well, all of these exchanges, all the unregulated exchanges are having massive outflows right now. Smart money has got the joke. They saw what happened at FTX and they’re not sitting around for an explanation,” he said.

Kevin O’Leary interview with Kitco News. Source: YouTube

The Shark Tank star then made a stark warning to so-called “unregulated” crypto exchanges. 

“If you're not willing to be audited, [...] you don't have an audit, you don't want to be transparent, you don't want to disclose ownership, why should institutional capital stay? Of course, it's not going to.”

The collapse of FTX in November prompted fierce calls from the community for greater transparency from crypto exchanges. Within weeks, five centralized exchanges completed their proof-of-reserve audits, while plenty more announced plans to do the same.

However, some observers, including a senior official from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), warned that proof of reserves don’t paint a true picture of a company’s financial position and asked investors to be “very wary” of the claims being made.

Some of the auditors, such as Mazars have seemingly back-flipped on their support for crypto companies. In December, the company removed its audit for crypto exchange Binance and reportedly stopped doing proof-of-reserve audits for crypto companies altogether.

Other auditing firms such as FTX’s auditor Armanino have also reportedly stopped working with crypto exchanges like OKX and Gate.io. O'Leary commented:

“Frankly, you know, it's very hard to find an auditor that wants to touch this stuff right now because of the unregulated cowboy environment. It's all going to end and yes, there’ll be many more zeros.”

Earlier this month, O’Leary’s fellow Shark Tank host Mark Cuban told The Street that crypto wash trading on centralized exchanges will be the cause of the next crypto “implosion.”

As much as 70% of the volume on unregulated exchanges is wash trading according to a December report by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Related: Binance 'put FTX out of business' — Kevin O'Leary

Despite the noise, O’Leary says he’s doubling down on his crypto investments, particularly in Bitcoin (BTC).

“I have been going back into crypto markets lately. Any time Bitcoin drops below $17,000 I add to our positions there.”

“Crypto is getting very interesting because we’re finally starting to see the bearer of regulation coming into play and I think long-term that’s a good thing,” he added.

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USDC transfer volume hit 5X USDT’s in fallout from FTX collapse

Although it has a much smaller market cap, on-chain data shows that USDC has a much greater transfer volume compared to its main competitor USDT.

Stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) has grown in popularity since the collapse of FTX and now frequently reaches daily transfer volumes four to five times that recorded by major competitor Tether (USDT) according to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.

That’s despite the market cap of USDT being $23 billion greater than USDC. As of Jan. 10, the difference was in USDC’s favor by a margin of four and a half times.

Both stablecoins recorded surges in transfer volumes following an infamous tweet from Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao on Nov. 6 announcing Binance would liquidate its entire FTX Token (FTT) holdings. FTX went into bankruptcy soon after.

Since then, USDC has been the preferred choice for crypto users averaging over $12.5 billion more in transfer volume compared to USDT per day according to Glassnode data.

Total transfer volumes for USDC (In blue) and USDT (In green) from Oct. 8 to Jan. 10. Source: Glassnode.

While each of the stablecoins is designed to trade as close to one U.S. dollar as possible and is backed by reserves held by its issuers, USDC is regarded by some in the crypto community as a potentially safer option.

Supporters point to USDC’s assets, which are backed by cash or short-term U.S. treasuries and its monthly audits by global accounting firm Grant Thornton.

Tether has faced criticism over a number of years for not providing a proper audit and for being less transparent about its reserves.

Cast your vote now!

The company behind USDT was fined $41 million in Oct. 2021 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused it of only holding sufficient reserves 27.6% of the time between 2016 and 2018 despite claiming its tokens were fully backed by fiat currencies.

Tether has been reducing the commercial paper backing its issued tokens in favor of safer alternatives, with the latest asset breakdown on Nov. 10 showing that nearly $46 billion of its reserves consist of cash, bank deposits and U.S. treasuries.

Related: Crypto.com delists USDT for Canadian users following OSC ban

USDT briefly lost its peg to the U.S. dollar following the FTX collapse amid fears it was exposed to Alameda Research and FTX, which Tether denied.

On-chain evidence suggests the two firms were attempting to short the stablecoin.

USDT had been recording transfer volumes much higher than USDCs up until May 2021, after Tether had increased the supply of the token from $8.79 billion to $61.82 billion over the last year, representing an increase of 603%.

Market cap of USDT from May 2018 to Jan. 2022. Source: TradingView

Despite the subsequent change in consumer preferences, Tether had referred to the growth in market capitalization as an indication of “the market’s continued trust and confidence in Tether,” and noted every token can be redeemed for U.S. dollars on a 1:1 basis.

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Be ‘very wary’ of crypto proof-of-reserve audits: SEC official

SEC’s acting chief accountant Paul Munter said that investors shouldn't place too much confidence in a company holding up a proof-of-reserves audit.

A senior official from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission has warned investors to be “very wary” about relying on a crypto company’s “proof-of-reserves.”

“We’re warning investors to be very wary of some of the claims that are being made by crypto companies,” said SEC’s acting chief accountant Paul Munter in a Dec. 22 interview with The Wall Street Journal.

A number of crypto firms have commissioned “proof-of-reserves” audits since the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, aiming to quell concerns over their own exchange’s financial soundness.

However, Munter said the results of these audits isn’t necessarily an indicator that the company is in a good financial position.

“Investors should not place too much confidence in the mere fact a company says it’s got a proof-of-reserves from an audit firm.”

He further added that these proof-of-reserve reports “lack” the sufficient information for stakeholders to determine whether the company has enough assets to meet its liabilities.

Munter also recently spoke at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants Conference in Washington, D.C on Dec.12, where he reportedly expressed frustration about the constantly evolving structure of crypto firms.

Munter noted to WSJ that if the SEC uncovers “troublesome” fact patterns, it may refer the matter to the division of enforcement for further review.

Related: Proof-of-reserves: Can reserve audits avoid another FTX-like moment?

Earlier this month, John Reed Stark, former chief of the SEC of Internet Enforcement raised a “red flag” on Twitter over Binance’s proof-of-reserve report via Twitter on Dec. 11.

He said that Binance’s proof of reserve report didn’t address the effectiveness of internal financial controls, nor does it express an opinion or assurance conclusion nor does it vouch for the numbers.

It was revealed on Dec. 16 that French auditing firm Mazars Group, discontinued its section on its website dedicated to crypto audits.

The firm had worked with several prominent crypto exchanges including Binance, KuCoin and Crypto.com

Ben Sharon, co-founder of digital asset management firm Illumishare SRG previously told Cointelegraph on Nov. 19 that a proof-of-reserve audit is still a viable step to review the financial health of crypto exchanges, but it’s not enough by itself.

Investors have lost millions over the past twelve months with major crypto firms going bankrupt including Three Capital Arrows, Celsius and most recently cryptocurrency exchange FTX.

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$16K retest the most likely path for Bitcoin, according to 2 derivative metrics

Top traders' long-to-short ratio and stronger demand for stablecoins in Asia indicate higher odds of further price correction.

Bitcoin (BTC) broke below $16,800 on Dec. 16, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks. More importantly, the movement was a complete turnaround from the momentary excitement that had led to the $18,370 peak on Dec. 14.

Curiously, Bitcoin dropped 3.8% in seven days, compared to the S&P 500 Index's 3.5% decline in the same period. So from one side, Bitcoin bulls have some comfort in knowing that correlation played a key role; at the same time, however, it got $206 million of BTC futures contracts liquidated on Dec. 15.

Some troublesome economic data from the auto loan industry has made investors uncomfortable as the rate of defaults from the lowest-income consumers now exceeds 2019 levels. Concerns emerged after the average monthly payment for a new car reached $718, a 26% increase in three years.

Furthermore, alongside the Bank of England, two central banks increased interest rates by 50 basis points to multiyear peaks — highlighting that borrowing costs would likely continue rising for longer than the market had hoped.

Uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets reemerged after two of the most prominent auditors suddenly dropped their services, leaving exchanges hanging. For instance, the website of the French auditing firm Mazars Group is offline. The firm previously worked with several exchanges, including Binance, KuCoin and Crypto.com.

Meanwhile, accounting firm Armanino has also reportedly ended its crypto auditing services. The auditor worked with several crypto trading platforms like OKX, Gate.io and the troubled FTX exchange. Curiously, Armanino was the first accounting firm to establish relationships in the crypto industry, dating back to 2014.

Let's look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

The Asia-based stablecoin premium drops to 2-month low

The USD Coin (USDC) premium is a good gauge of China-based crypto retail trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100%, and during bearish markets, the stablecoin's market offer is flooded, causing a 4% or higher discount.

USDC peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX

Currently, the USDC premium stands at 101.8%, up from 99% on Dec. 12, indicating higher demand for stablecoin buying from Asian investors. The data gained relevance after the brutal 9.7% correction in five days since the $18,370 peak on Dec. 14.

However, this indicator should not necessarily be viewed as bullish because the stablecoin could have been acquired to protect from downside risks in cryptocurrencies — meaning investors are becoming more bearish.

Leverage buyers slowly thrown in the towel

The long-to-short metric excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the stablecoin market. It also gathers data from exchange clients' positions on the spot, perpetual, and quarterly futures contracts, thus offering better information on how professional traders are positioned.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Exchanges' top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

As Bitcoin broke below the $16,800 support, professional traders decreased their leverage long positions according to the long-to-short indicator.

For instance, the ratio for Binance traders slightly declined from 1.11 on Dec. 14 to the current 1.04 level. Meanwhile, Huobi displayed a modest decrease in its long-to-short ratio, with the indicator moving from 1.01 to 0.05 in the same period.

Lastly, at the OKX exchange, the metric decreased from 1.00 on Dec. 14 to the current 0.98 ratio. So, on average, traders have decreased their leverage-long ratio over the last five days, indicating lesser confidence in the market.

A potential retest of $16,000 is likely in the making

The moderate 101.8% stablecoin premium in Asia, paired with the information of top traders' long-to-short indicator decline, tells a story of buyers gradually ceding to pessimism.

Furthermore, the $206 million liquidation in long BTC futures contracts signals that buyers continue to use excessive leverage, setting up the perfect storm for another leg of correction.

For now, the Bitcoin price continues to be heavily dependent on traditional stock markets. Still, weak macroeconomic data and the uncertainty brought by crypto auditing firms point to higher odds of a $16,000 Bitcoin retest.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Total crypto market cap takes another hit, but traders remain neutral

The total crypto market cap is at risk of falling below $825 billion, but data shows traders actively adding to their longs and shorts.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped 8.1% in the past two days after failing to break the $880 billion resistance on Dec. 14. 

The rejection did not invalidate the 4-week-long ascending channel, but a weekly close below $825 billion will confirm a shift to the lower band and reduce the support level to $790 billion.

Total crypto market cap in USD, 12-hour. Source: TradingView

The overall investor sentiment toward the market remains bearish, and year-to-date losses amount to 66%. Despite this, Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped a mere 2% on the week, down to the $16,800 level at 17:00 UTC on Dec. 16.

A far different scenario emerged for altcoins which are being pressured by pending regulation and fears that major exchanges and miners could be insolvent . This explains why the total market capitalization had dropped by 4.7% since Dec. 9.

According to court documents filed on Dec. 15, a United States Trustee announced the committee responsible for part of FTX's bankruptcy proceedings. Among those is Wintermute Asia, a leading market maker and GGC International, an affiliate of the troubled lending platform Genesis. Investors remain in the dark about who the biggest creditors from the failed FTX exchange group are and this is fueling speculation that contagion could continue to spread.

On Dec. 15, The central bank of the Netherlands issued a warning to investors using KuCoin, saying the exchange was operating without legal registration. De Nederlandsche Bank added that the crypto firm was "illegally offering services" and "illegally offering custodian wallets" for users.

Adding to the drama, on Dec. 16, Mazars Group, a company known for its proof-of-reserve audit services for crypto companies, reportedly removed recent documents that detail exchange audits from its website. The firm was previously appointed as an official auditor for Binance's proof-of-reserve updates, a movement that was followed by Kucoin and Crypto.com.

The Bitcoin mining sector has also suffered due to the strong correction in cryptocurrency prices and rising energy costs. Publicly-listed miner Core Scientific was offered a $72 million contingent emergency credit line to avoid bankruptcy. The financial lender requires suspension of all payments to Core Scientific's equipment lenders while Bitcoin remains below $18,500.

The 4.7% weekly drop in total market capitalization was impacted mainly by Ether's (ETH) 5.4% negative price move and BNB, which traded down 15.1%. Consequently, the bearish sentiment significantly impacted altcoins, with 14 of the top 80 coins dropping 12% or more in the period.

Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Nomics

The Open Network (TON) gained 30% after Telegram launched bidding for anonymous phone numbers sold for TON tokens.

Bitcoin SV (BSV) rallied 11.7% after Craig Wright, the self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto and leader of the altcoin project, appealed to his loss in Norway courts.

Trust Wallet (TWT) saw a 27.2% correction after its parent company (Binance) faced $1.9 billion in withdrawals in 24 hours.

Leverage demand is balanced between bulls and bears

Currently, data shows demand for leverage is split between bulls and bears.

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

Perpetual futures accumulated 7-day funding rate on Dec. 16. Source: Coinglass

The 7-day funding rate was near zero for Bitcoin and altcoins, meaning the data points to a balanced demand between leverage longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) in the period.

Traders should also analyze the options markets to understand whether whales and arbitrage desks have placed higher bets on bullish or bearish strategies.

The options put/call volume reflects a neutral market

Traders can gauge the market's overall sentiment by measuring whether more activity is going through call (buy) options or put (sell) options. Generally speaking, call options are used for bullish strategies, whereas put options are for bearish ones.

A 0.70 put-to-call ratio indicates that put options open interest lag the more bullish calls by 30% and this is bullish. In contrast, a 1.40 indicator favors put options by 40%, which can be deemed bearish.

BTC options volume put-to-call ratio. Source: laevitas.ch

Even though Bitcoin's price failed to break the $18,000 resistance on Dec. 14, there was no excessive demand for downside protection using options. More precisely, the indicator has been below 1.00, so slightly optimistic, since Dec. 12.

Presently, the put-to-call volume ratio stands near 0.88 because the options market is more strongly populated by neutral-to-bullish strategies which favors call (buy) options by 12%.

Derivatives markets are neutral, but the newsflow is negative

Despite the substantial weekly price decline in a handful of altcoins and the 4.7% drop in total market capitalization, derivatives metrics reflect no signs of panic.

There has been a balanced demand for longs and shorts using futures contracts. As a result, the BTC options risk assessment metric remains favorable even after Bitcoin's 8.5% correction following the $18,370 high on Dec. 14.

Ultimately, bulls should not expect the $825 billion market capitalization to hold, which does not necessarily mean an immediate retest of the $790 billion support.

Currently, the lower band of the ascending channel continues to exert upward pressure, but the newsflow looks favorable for bears.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Binance and Crypto.com Publish Proof-of-Reserve Audits Conducted by Global Auditor Mazars Group

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US Auditing Firms To Charge More for Crypto Company Services Following FTX Collapse: Report

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Tether commercial paper exposure now under $50M, says CTO

Tether is also looking to become more transparent, having hired a new accounting firm to conduct regular audit and attestation reports to ensure its stablecoin is properly backed by the USD.

Stablecoin issuer Tether (USDT) has nearly completely slashed its commercial paper holdings, with less than $50 million worth of commercial paper units as of Sept. 30, 2022.

Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino made the announcement in an Oct. 3 tweet, adding also that Tether’s United States Treasury bills increased to 58.1% of its total portfolio, up 25.1% from its Jun. 30 figure of 43.5%.

Commercial papers are short-term debt instruments issued by companies, which are often used to finance various business operations, while treasury bills are claimed to be more stable than commercial papers as they offer “zero default risk” since investors are guaranteed to at least recoup the purchase price.

In June, Tether said it was aiming to decrease commercial paper backing of USDT to "zero," and rolled into short-maturity U.S. Treasury bills — aimed at increasing the stability of its ecosystem and USDT stablecoin.

The stablecoin issuer has also been seeking to increase transparency into its dollar reserves and backing. 

In July, it appointed European accounting firm BDO Italia as a new auditor to independently review its stablecoin reserves in a bid to improve transparency and more regularly disclose audit and attestation reports.

Last month, Tether was ordered by a United States District Court in New York to provide documents that prove the U.S. dollar 1-to-1 backing of the USDT stablecoin on Sept. 19.

As for when Tether’s transparency report will be updated, Ardoino said the deadline usually takes 45 days, but now expects its new auditor to improve this process and reduce that timeline.

Related: Tether aims to decrease commercial paper backing of USDT to zero

Tether’s plan to slash its entire commercial paper holdings by the end of 2022 is well underway, with the firm cutting down its reserves from 20 billion units as of Q1 2022 to 8.4 billion units as of Q2 2022. 

USDT is currently the largest stablecoin, with a market capitalization of $67.95 billion, the third highest of all digital assets according to CoinGecko data.

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