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Bank of America CEO: Regulation Won’t Let Us Engage in Crypto; Kiyosaki Talks Depression, Civil Unrest, and More — Bitcoin.com News Week in Review

Bank of America CEO: Regulation Won’t Let Us Engage in Crypto; Kiyosaki Talks Depression, Civil Unrest, and More — Bitcoin.com News Week in ReviewThe new LUNA records gains amidst controversy, “Big Short” investor Michael Burry and author Robert Kiyosaki weigh in on recession, depression, and looming civil unrest. To top it all off, Bank of America’s CEO said “we have hundreds of patents on blockchain” but that regulations are blocking the institution from engaging in crypto. This is […]

How to buy Bitcoin with a credit card

Bank of America CEO: We Have Hundreds of Blockchain Patents — But Regulation Won’t Allow Us to Engage in Crypto

Bank of America CEO: We Have Hundreds of Blockchain Patents — But Regulation Won’t Allow Us to Engage in CryptoThe CEO of Bank of America says that his bank has hundreds of blockchain patents but regulations will not allow it to engage in crypto. “The reality is that we can’t do it by regulation,” he said. Bank of America’s CEO on Crypto Bank of America (BOA) CEO Brian Moynihan talked about cryptocurrency in an […]

How to buy Bitcoin with a credit card

U.S. dollar index retreats from 20 year highs — but will DXY topping spark a Bitcoin recovery?

Strong euro and overbought readings could pressure the dollar further, showing signs of topping out—Bitcoin at risk of falling.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) retreated broadly from its prevailing bull run in the past two weeks, dropping by up to 3.20% after hitting its two-decade high of 105.

Overvaluation risks grip dollar market

Dollar's correction in the last two weeks preceded twelve months of relentless buying.

To recap, the greenback's weight against the basket of top foreign currencies grew by around 14.3% in a year, primarily as markets looked for safe havens against the fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve and more recently the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

DXY weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Cash balances among the global fund managers grew 6.1% on average since 9/11, a recent survey of 288 asset allocators by Bank of America showed. The report also noted that 66% of asset managers believe global profits will weaken in 2022, prompting them to hold "overweight" cash positions.

"The market has hoarded a huge amount of dollars in recent months," George Saravelos, strategist at Deutsche Bank, told the Financial Times, adding that it is "leading to a very substantial dollar overvaluation."

Thus, the dollar's latest retreat may have been an interim correction to neutralize its "overbought" conditions, as the greenback's weekly relative strength index (RSI) readings also suggested (in the chart below).

From a further technical perspective, the DXY could decline further toward a rising trendline that as support has been capping its downside moves since January 2021, as shown below. 

DXY weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If more selloffs occur, the index is likely to pull back from its current resistance range, with the next downside target at the 0.786 Fib line near 100.

Stronger euro prospects

The DXY also pulled back earlier this week as Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), set a new and more hawkish policy on May 23.

Lagarde committed to interest rate hikes by September 2022, thus turning away from ECB's decade-long dovish monetary policy that has resulted in de facto negative interest rates.

As a result, rates in Eurozone would shoot back to zero, the prospect of which has made the euro stronger against the dollar.

EUR/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

But even with the ongoing Ukraine-Russia crisis and its access to energy thrown into haywire, Eurozone's confidence in business growth remains strong, the recent IFO survey shows. That would mean more upside boost for the euro, which could pressure the dollar lower.

The IFO survey shows robust German business confidence. Source: Bloomberg

"It’s still too soon to say with any confidence that the dollar is now into a weakening trend," said John Authers, a senior editor at Bloomberg Opinion, adding:

"But its decline is another indication that the 'stagflation and ever-higher rates' narrative is being rethought."

EM currencies versus Bitcoin

A weaker DXY merely represents its declining weight against foreign currencies. But a deeper look into the dollar shows weakening purchasing power in a high inflation environment. The consumer price index (CPI) was above 8% as of this April 2022. 

In result, the dollar, albeit stronger than it was a year ago, has not been able to send emerging market currencies into a tailspin, thus breaking off their widely-watched negative correlation.

Notably, returns on the currencies of developing nations such as the Brazilian real and Chilean peso have been higher than the dollar since January 2022.

BRL/USD and CLP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

EM currencies tend to underperform when the dollar rises, mainly because investors look at the greenback as their ultimate haven in times of global market uncertainty. But with commodity prices rising due to the Ukraine-Russia crisis, investors are rethinking their strategy.

Meanwhile, countries increasing their interest rates are also creating a better investment environment for their currencies, says Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy for BMO Capital Markets.

Excerpts from his statement to the Wall Street Journal:

"Emerging-market central banks are forced to tighten policy to keep pace with the Fed. It’s either that, or capital controls are imposed."

The ongoing power play between the dollar and the EM currencies has left Bitcoin (BTC) without consideration. Its value has dropped by over 50% since November 2021 and remains heavily with risk-on assets.

Related: Scott Minerd says Bitcoin price will drop to $8K, but technical analysis says otherwise

BTC/USD daily price chart featuring its correlation with DXY and EUR/USD. Source: TradingView

However, Bitcoin's long-standing negative correlation with the DXY has flipped to positive this week. This suggests that a further decline in the dollar markets might not necessarily trigger a BTC price recovery in the near term. 

As Cointelegraph reported, calls for a $20,000 macro bottom and even much lower are growing louder as Bitcoin struggles to rise back above the $30,000 mark. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

How to buy Bitcoin with a credit card

Dollar Cost Averaging or Lump-sum: Which Bitcoin strategy works best regardless of price?

A dollar invested into Bitcoin every month since December 2017 has provided investors a cumulative return of $160.

Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by more than 55% six months after it reached its record high of $69,000 in November 2021.

The massive drop has left investors in a predicament about whether they should buy BTC when it is cheaper, around $30,000, or wait for another market selloff.

This is primarily because interest rates are lower despite Federal Reserve's recent 0.5% rate hike. Meanwhile, cash holdings among the global fund managers have surged by 6.1% to $83 billion, the highest since the 9/11 attacks. This suggests risk aversion among the biggest pension, insurance, asset, and hedge funds managers, the latest Bank of America data shows.

Many crypto analysts, including Carl B. Menger, see greater buying opportunities in the Bitcoin market as its price searches for a bottom.

But instead of suggesting a lump-sum investment (LSI), wherein investors throw down a huge sum to enter a market, there's a seemingly safer alternative for the lay investor, called the "dollar cost averaging," or DCA.

Bitcoin DCA strategy can beat 99.9% of all asset managers

The DCA strategy is when investors divide their cash holdings into twelve equal parts and buy Bitcoin with each part every month. In other words, investors purchase more BTC when its prices decline and less of the same asset when its prices rise.

The strategy has so far provided incredible results.

For instance, a dollar invested into Bitcoin every month after it topped out in December 2017—near $20,000—has given investors a cumulative return of $163, according to CryptoHead's DCA calculator. That means a circa 200% profit from consistent investments.

Bitcoin DCA calculator. Source: CryptoHead

The Bitcoin DCA strategy also originates from an opinion that BTC's long-term trend would always remain skewed to the upside. Menger claims that buying Bitcoin regularly for a certain dollar amount could have investors "beat 99.99% of all investment managers and firms on planet Earth."

Cracks in the DCA strategy

Historical returns in traditional markets, however, do not support DCA as the best investment strategy. Instead, the LSI strategy proves to be better.

For instance, a study of 60/40 portfolios by Vanguard, which looked at every 12-month timeframe from 1926 until 2015, showed that all-at-once investments outperformed the DCA two-thirds of the time, averaging 2.4% on a calendar year basis.

Related: Bitcoin ends week ‘on the edge’ as S&P 500 officially enters bear market

This somewhat raises the possibility that Bitcoin, whose daily positive correlation with the benchmark S&P 500 index surged to 0.96 in May, would show similar results between its DCA and LSI strategies in the future.

Thus, investing regularly in Bitcoin with a fixed cash amount might not always give better profits than the all-in method.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

But what about combining both?

Larry Swedroe, chief research officer for Buckingham Wealth Partner, believes investors should invest with a "glass is half full" perspective, meaning a mix of LSI and DCA.

"Invest one-third of the investment immediately and invest the remainder one-third at a time during the next two months or next two quarters," the analyst wrote on SeekingAlpha, adding:

"Invest one-quarter today and invest the remainder spread equally over the next three quarters. Invest one-sixth each month for six months or every other month."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

How to buy Bitcoin with a credit card

Bank of America Strategist Warns ‘Recession Shock’ Is Coming, Analyst Says Crypto Could Outperform Bonds

Bank of America Strategist Warns ‘Recession Shock’ Is Coming, Analyst Says Crypto Could Outperform BondsOn Friday, Bank of America’s (BOFA) chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett explained in a weekly financial note to clients that the U.S. economy could head into a recession. The BOFA strategist’s note further detailed that cryptocurrencies could outperform bonds and stocks. BOFA Strategist Notes inflation Shock Is Worsening, Cryptocurrencies Could Outperform Bonds and Stocks Bank […]

How to buy Bitcoin with a credit card

Dedicated crypto teams booming within traditional financial firms

As more and more financial giants set up crypto research teams, experts see this trend continuing to gain traction in the future.

Despite the financial volatility that has engulfed the global economic landscape over the last month or so, there seems to be no stopping the growth of the cryptocurrency market, especially the nonfungible token (NFT) sector. This growth is highlighted by the fact that crypto’s total market capitalization has increased from around $800 billion to $1.8 trillion since the start of 2021.

Furthermore, a report from NonFungible.com released late last month reveals that sales associated with the NFT market ballooned to hit an all-time high of $17.6 billion during 2021, representing an increase of 21,000% from 2020.

The report further suggests that individuals invested in the NFT market raked in monumental profits worth a collective $5.4 billion last year. Thus, it comes as no surprise that a growing list of mainstream entities have continued to make their way into the crypto space.

Mainstream firms explore crypto tech 

On March 2, Nomura Holdings — one of Japan’s largest financial firms, with about 70 trillion yen ($593 billion) in assets under management — announced it would be launching a new digital assets wing to look into opportunities presented by the crypto market, particularly NFTs, and to help its clients increase their exposure to and use of digital currencies as well as other related services. The company — which deals in retail, wholesale and investment businesses — announced it would restructure its Future Innovation Company and begin updated operations in April.

Several major firms have made similar moves in recent months, including e-commerce giant Rakuten, which announced the launch of its very own NFT trading platform, dubbed Rakuten NFT. Japan’s largest financial conglomerate, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, also revealed it would scrap its blockchain payment project to focus on the burgeoning stablecoin market.

Bank of Tokyo–Mitsubishi UFJ Head Office in Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo. Source: Kakidai

Specialized crypto wings are fast becoming the norm 

Christopher Temme, chief financial officer of cryptocurrency exchange bitFlyer USA, spoke to Cointelegraph about whether the trend of mainstream firms creating dedicated crypto departments will carry forward into the future.

In his view, companies like Nomura creating digital asset-focused business units comes as no surprise, as the clients of most multinational corporations are pushing for this kind of exposure, adding:

“What’s more interesting is that Nomura is exploring NFTs specifically. Their rapid growth and adoption in the creative/collectibles space have been the perfect testing ground to harden the technology in preparation for digital ownership of ‘real’ property, and the communities that’ll be formed around it as a result.”

Temme also noted that while Japanese financial institutions have traditionally been quite conservative in their financial outlook, the fact that Nomura is exploring the crypto sector via a dedicated wing serves as a strong indicator of what’s to come in the near future. 

Similarly, Takaaki Kato, head of global sales and trading at bitFlyer, told Cointelegraph that, as a general rule of thumb, mainstream companies tend to follow a herd mentality — meaning that when one major player creates a department to explore crypto, it’s only a matter of time before others follow suit. 

Temme’s and Kato’s opinions were also echoed by Jimmy Yin, founder of iZUMi Finance — a platform providing liquidity as a service — who told Cointelegraph that the creation of dedicated crypto wings will likely become a norm as we move into an increasingly decentralized future. However, he made note that there are certain things companies need to take into consideration before taking major steps in this direction:

“We can see massive growth in NFTs and crypto-asset users in general over the past year. That said, multiple factors, including legalization, have to be taken into consideration, especially when it comes to advertising to mass citizens. With the current geopolitical mayhem going on, crypto is seen as a challenge to what’s been considered stable.”

In Yin’s view, the trend will gain momentum if crypto’s social acceptance continues to grow, especially as a holistic technology that allows for a multitude of benefits — not just as a payment tool. “Whether crypto is adopted as a social norm is not up to these business giants but the common interest of citizens,” he said.

The numbers don’t lie

In mid-2021, Bank of America established a specialized team focused on crypto and digital asset strategy, citing growing customer demand and other associated factors for the move. In a study released by the firm later that year, analysts noted that the digital asset market had become too large for any forward-looking company to ignore, with crypto having reached a $2 trillion market capitalization in 2021 — and boasting over 200 million users.

The researchers further noted that crypto-based digital assets could form an entirely new asset class over the coming months and years. Not only that, they acknowledged that the digital asset ecosystem had expanded into unimaginable realms over the past couple of years — including decentralized finance, stablecoins, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and NFTs — meaning that more and more traditional players are bound to enter the fray soon.

From a purely numbers standpoint, venture capital-related digital asset and blockchain investments reached over $17 billion during Q1 and Q2 of 2021 alone, dwarfing the previous year’s combined total of $5.5 billion.

Lastly, as more companies begin to realize the potential that crypto has across various industries — including finance, supply chains, gaming and social media — the advent of dedicated crypto research teams no longer seems like a far-fetched notion. Samiar Tehrani, co-founder of Ratio Finance — a Solana-based collateralized debt position platform — told Cointelegraph that digital assets present tangible, ready use cases meeting many of the challenges presented by the world of traditional finance, adding:

“Even after experiencing several major corrections recently, the current market capitalization of the crypto sector still stands at $1.8 trillion, which is more than the GDP of many major nations. That tells you all that you need to know about how big this space has become and whether or not companies are really taking this market seriously. I believe most firms already have dedicated teams working overtime to explore this space so as to not get left behind.”

Most traditional firms see a lot of value in crypto

Much like Bank of America, many other financial juggernauts have also recently jumped into the deep end of the crypto market. For example, late last year, Morgan Stanley launched a cryptocurrency research team led by Sheena Shah, the company’s head digital asset analyst, alongside Adam Wood and James Faucette, who head the bank’s fintech and payments research team in Europe and the United States, respectively.

It is also worth noting that Morgan Stanley was among the first major investment banks to fully embrace digital currencies, with the firm rolling out a total of 15 crypto-related mutual funds offerings to its clients over the last 18 months.

Additionally, State Street, the second-oldest continuously operating bank in the United States, launched a dedicated digital finance division in June 2021, noting its need to focus on future-centric technologies such as cryptocurrency, blockchain, CBDCs and tokenization to keep up with the ever-evolving global financial landscape.

So, as the world continues to move toward using digital assets, it stands to reason that more and more companies will look closely at various offerings connected with the space. In this regard, it seems many companies see creating teams specializing in this financial niche to be the best means of doing so.

How to buy Bitcoin with a credit card

Warren Buffett invests $1B in Bitcoin-friendly neobank, dumps Visa and Mastercard stocks

The "Oracle of Omaha" now has more companies in his portfolio that have direct/indirect exposure to Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway dumped a portion of its Visa and Mastercard holdings and increased exposure in Nubank, the largest fintech bank in Brazil that's also popular among the country's Bitcoin investors.

In a securities filing late Monday, the industrials conglomerate disclosed that it had purchased $1 billion worth of Nubank Class A stock in Q4/2021. On the other hand, it sold $1.8 billion and $1.3 billion worth of Visa and Mastercard stock, respectively, signaling a shift away from credit companies to gain exposure in their fintech rivals.

Buffett, the so-called "Oracle of Omaha," is popular for his cautious approach to investing, particularly in the market's hottest sectors such as fintech. The veteran investor had also downplayed emerging decentralized finance solutions like Bitcoin (BTC), ridiculing it as an asset that "does not create anything."

But Berkshire's new stake in Nubank shows that Buffett has been softening up to fintech lately. In detail, the firm had invested $500 million in the startup in July 2021. Its returns on the said investment amounted to $150 million in Dec. 2021 after Nubank debuted on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

So far, Buffett has not shown any intention to sell his position in Nubank.

The Buffett-Bitcoin connection

Buffett's additional investment into Nubank shows his acknowledgment of the fintech sector's underlying theme: the digitization of financial services, as well as his willingness to associate with companies that are involved in the cryptocurrency sector.

In detail, Easynvest, a trading platform that Nubank acquired in September 2020 has been actively offering a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) since June 2021. Dubbed QBTC11, the ETF is backed by QR Asset Management and is listed on the B3 stock exchange, the second-oldest bourse in Brazil.

Thus, it appears that Nubank, which remains exposed to the emerging crypto sector via Easynvest, could use the additional revenue opportunities to benefit its top investor, Warren Buffett, despite his views that Bitcoin is a "rat poison squared."

That is primarily because of the growth of crypto-related investment products in 2021. Notably, their numbers doubled in the year, rising from 35 to 80, as per Bloomberg Intelligence data, while the total valuations of the assets they held reached $63 billion versus $24 billion at the start of 2021.

Cash flowing into crypto funds doubled in 2021. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

Emily Portney, chief financial officer at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. — another firm in Buffett's investment portfolio, noted that digital assets could become a "meaningful source of revenue" for investment banking firms in the future as Bitcoin investment vehicles become more mainstream.

Related: Bitcoin’s 30% recovery in two weeks has BTC whales back in accumulation mode

Meanwhile, Leah Wald, chief executive of crypto-asset manager Valkyrie Investments, predicted an increase in the capital flows into crypto-related investment vehicles, saying they have become a "phenomenon that's starting to take off." Wald:

"If you look at inflows from a volume perspective, not only has it been steady even with the price corrections that Bitcoin is notoriously famous for, but you're seeing a lot of institutions jump in."

Buffett's portfolio full of crypto-loving companies

While Buffett might not invest in Bitcoin directly, he is already gaining indirect exposure as companies in his portfolio foray into the crypto sector.

For instance, in October 2021, just a month before Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $69,000, fifth-largest U.S. bank, U.S. Bancorp, launched a cryptocurrency custody service for its institutional investment managers, noting that they witnessed an increase in demand from their "fund services clients" over the last few years.

Similarly, in another announcement made October 2021, Bank of America launched a cryptocurrency research initiative, citing "growing institutional interest."

Months before, BNY Mellon announced that it would hold, transfer, and issue Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies for its asset-management clients.

"The Nubank investment can be tagged as Buffett's way of supporting the fintech/crypto world without taking back his criticisms of the past," asserted Greg Waisman, co-founder and COO of crypto wallet service Mercuryo, adding that the Berkshire boss is now backing the "digital currency ecosystem indirectly."

"Even an indirect exposure is bound to increase the positive sentiment that may push more investors into the space."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

How to buy Bitcoin with a credit card

Bank of America says stablecoin adoption and CBDC is ‘inevitable’

A recent note from Bank of America analysts said that a CBDC would differ from digital currencies currently available because it would be the liability of the Federal Reserve, not a commercial bank.

It appears that the U.S. will finally be moving forward to create its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) according to the Bank of America.

Bank of America crypto strategists Andrew Moss and Alkesh Shah wrote in a Jan. 24 note that CBDCs “are an inevitable evolution of today’s electronic currencies,” according to a Bloomberg report. The analysts wrote:

“We expect stablecoin adoption and use for payments to increase significantly over the next several years as financial institutions explore digital asset custody and trading solutions and as payments companies incorporate blockchain technology into their platforms.”

Meanwhile, a Jan. 20 report titled “Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation” from the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) weighed up the benefits and disadvantages of the U.S. potentially adopting a CBDC.

It considered whether a CBDC could potentially “improve the safe and effective domestic payments system” for households and businesses as “the payments system continues to evolve,” possibly resulting in “faster payment options between countries.”

In the meantime, Shah and Moss stated that the use of digital currencies issued by private companies is likely to grow. Currently, the liability for existing forms of digital currency like online bank accounts or payment apps belongs to private entities, such as commercial banks.

However, a CBDC would be different in this respect because it would be the liability of a central bank such as the Federal Reserve, wrote the FRB in a statement about the report.

It also pointed out potential difficulties including preserving financial stability, protecting the privacy of users, and combatting illicit transactions. The Fed has opened to the floor for public comment on these issues until May 20.

Related: Solana could become the ‘Visa of crypto’: Bank of America

A CBDC is a digital version of a country’s fiat currency, such as the U.S. dollar. They started to step into the spotlight during 2020 when The Bahamas launched the world’s first CBDC, the “Sand Dollar.”

Meanwhile, China’s central bank is in the process of developing a digital yuan wallet, as it steps up its efforts to create a digital currency. In April 2021, Sweden’s central bank completed the first phase of its “e-krona” digital currency pilot.

How to buy Bitcoin with a credit card