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Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Shocks Markets by Raising the Benchmark Rate to 0.5% From 0.25%

Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Shocks Markets by Raising the Benchmark Rate to 0.5% From 0.25%The Japanese yen is up 3.42% against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as the Bank of Japan surprised the world by deciding to allow the benchmark interest rate to rise to 0.5% from 0.25%. The Japanese central bank was one of the only banks worldwide to hold off on raising benchmark interest rates, as policymakers […]

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Bitcoin ditches $16K dip as ‘Leeroy Jenkins’ Bank of Japan flattens dollar

BTC price sees short-term relief as the DXY falls, but Bitcoin analysts warn that Japan's move means carnage for global markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered from an overnight dip on Dec. 20 as Japan’s central bank sparked chaos on global financial markets.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Analyst likens BoJ policy to FTX

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD returning to near $17,000 after falling over 3% through the course of Dec. 19.

The largest cryptocurrency benefitted from flash U.S. dollar weakness, this coming on the back of a surprise policy tweak from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Long a deflationary environment with ultra-low interest rates, Japan woke up to a sea change on the day as policymakers lifted the cap on bond yields. The yen instantly gained against the dollar, while Japan’s Nikkei plummeted.

Reacting, Bitcoin analysts were anything but jubilant despite the short-term benefits for BTC/USD.

Japan, seeming to follow the U.S. in attempting to tame inflation, had unleashed a can of worms which would only become apparent later, they said.

“That’s what happens when you artificially surprises the free market,” Arthur Hayes, former CEO of exchange BitMEX, tweeted, likely intending to write “suppress” instead of “surprises.”

“It blows up in your face. Expect 10yr JGB yields to trade at the 0.50% yield ceiling once USD liquidity falters in 1Q23. Yachtzee.”

Hayes had previously written about central banks’ practice of yield curve control (YCC), which at the time he said was irreversible once started.

A further post meanwhile focused on BoJ ownership of Japanese bonds, now above 50%. This scenario, he said, was reminiscent of the last days of defunct exchange FTX.

“It’s like the BOJ is taking lessons from (FTX ex-CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried,” Hayes wrote.

“When you own over 50% of a market is it even a market anymore? $FTT = $JGB.”
Japanese government bond 10-year yield chart. Source: TradingView

Other responses were no less frank in their appraisal of the BoJ, with Marty Bent, founder of crypto media company TFTC, likening the move to it having “pulled Leeroy Jenkins on the global financial system.”

“A minor policy tweak has huge implications that will take weeks to play out,” part of remarks from portfolio manager Christian H. Cooper added.

“BOJ was the last low yield holdout and now that changes. Spike in rates, stocks lower (for weeks), + chaos.”

U.S. dollar meets "perfect storm"

The Japan story fed into an already fervent narrative over dollar strength, this hitting six-month lows earlier in December.

"The perfect storm for a DXY top has formed," popular analytics account Tedtalksmacro summarized.

Related: BTC price faces 20% drop in weeks if Bitcoin avoids key level — Analyst

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) thus abandoned its attempt at a sustained recovery on intraday timeframes, retreating to lows under 104 on the day.

"Major central banks are now playing catch-up to the Fed, including the most dovish —> the Bank of Japan. The race to tame inflation outside of the US is on, and the US look to have already done it."
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bank of Japan to Launch Digital Yen Pilot Program Next Year

Bank of Japan to Launch Digital Yen Pilot Program Next YearThe Bank of Japan is preparing to run a test trial of its own central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital yen, with help from three top banks and regional institutions. The pilot program, estimated to last two years, will focus on testing the currency via several transactions, and experimenting with its functionality in environments […]

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Bank of Japan to trial digital yen with three megabanks

The Japanese central bank plans to make a decision on whether to issue a digital currency by 2026.

Despite Japan’s uncertainty on whether to issue a central bank digital currency (CBDC), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues experimenting with a potential digital yen.

The Japanese central bank has started a collaboration with three megabanks and regional banks to conduct a CBDC issuance pilot, the local news agency Nikkei reported on Nov. 23.

The pilot aims to provide demo experiments for the issuance of Japan’s national digital currency, the digital yen, starting in spring 2023.

As part of the trial, the BoJ is expected to cooperate with major private banks and other organizations to detect and solve any issues related to customer deposits and withdrawals on bank accounts. According to the report, the pilot will involve testing the offline functionality of Japan’s possible CBDC, targeting payments without the internet.

Japan’s central bank plans to proceed with its CBDC experiment for about two years and make a decision on whether to issue a digital currency by 2026, the report notes.

The news comes amid countries around the globe increasingly launching CBDC research and development initiatives, with countries like China leading the global CBDC race.

As Cointelegraph reported on Nov. 22, the Reserve Bank of India is preparing to start a retail pilot of the digital rupee in collaboration with major local banks including the State Bank of India in December. In mid-November, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Innovation Center announced the launch of a 12-week proof-of-concept CBDC pilot in partnership with banking giants like BNY Mellon, Citi, HSBC and others.

Related: Japan’s International Payments System will test plastic cards for CBDC

While the majority of the world has been rushing to launch a CBDC, some countries like Denmark have dropped out of the digital currency race. Among reasons for dropping their CBDC or CBDC-related projects, the central banks listed potential difficulties for the private sector, questionable value and benefits and other issues. Still, no central bank has ruled out the possibility of launching a CBDC completely.

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Japan’s International Payments System will test plastic cards for CBDC

Japan Credit Bureau will develop its CBDC infrastructure in collaboration with IDEMIA and Softspace.

Japan Credit Bureau (JCB), a Japanese analog to international payments systems like Visa or Mastercard, announced the start of its central bank digital currency (CBDC) infrastructure testing. The project will assumably prepare the payments platform for a national CBDC, which is currently being tested by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). 

The infrastructure project, announced by the company in local media, will come under the title JCBDC and aims at adjusting the JCB’s existing credit card infrastructure for CBDC payments. The France-based provider of facial recognition technology IDEMIA and Malaysian Softspace will collaborate with JCB in the platform’s development.

The platform will consist of three major directions — a touch payment solution, an issuance and provision of plastic cards for CBDC and a simulation of the working CBDC environment. JCB also plans to adjust the mobile payment tools and QR codes, but in the later stages of testing.

JCB plans to develop a payment solution by the end of 2022 and start the demonstration experiments at actual stores by the end of March 2023.

The BOJ shared a three-phase trial outline for its CBDC back in Oct. 2020. The second phase of the trials, which would test the technical aspects of the issuance of the digital yen, should start this year. According to the BoJ governor, the digital yen could launch by 2026, and the decision won’t be made by the central bank alone.

Related: Japan is losing its place as the world's gaming capital because of crypto hostility

There is still no certainty about the project launch or the possible scope of its implementation. In January, the former head of the BOJ’s financial settlement department advised against using the digital yen as a part of the country’s monetary policy.

JCB is not a newcomer to digital innovations — it started a pilot of a digital identity interoperability system based on blockchain technology in collaboration with Fujitsu Laboratories in 2020.

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Japanese Yen Plunges to 32-Year Low Against US Dollar — Another Intervention by Authorities Expected

Japanese Yen Plunges to 32-Year Low Against US Dollar — Another Intervention by Authorities ExpectedThe Japanese yen’s exchange rate versus the U.S. dollar recently plunged to its lowest rate in 32 years — 147.66 JPY per dollar. The yen’s latest fall comes less than a month after its slip in September prompted authorities to enter foreign exchange markets for the first time since 1998. Gap Between US Treasuries and […]

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Bank of England to Double Long-Dated Gilt Buy-Backs, QE Policy to See an ‘Orderly End’ in Mid-October

Bank of England to Double Long-Dated Gilt Buy-Backs, QE Policy to See an ‘Orderly End’ in Mid-OctoberAfter the British pound sterling tapped an all-time low against the U.S. dollar on September 26, the Bank of England (BOE) said it would halt its monetary tightening policy and start buying long-dated bonds again. Approximately two weeks later, the BOE detailed on Monday that it was doubling the size of its debt buy-backs by […]

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Bank of England Suspends Tightening Policy as Pound Nosedives — Central Bank to Start Purchasing Long-Dated UK Government Bonds

Bank of England Suspends Tightening Policy as Pound Nosedives — Central Bank to Start Purchasing Long-Dated UK Government BondsFollowing the extremely volatile European markets during the past few days and the euro and pound dropping rapidly against the U.S. dollar, the Bank of England has decided to intervene in bond markets. U.K. government bond yields have been erratic and the pound sterling also dropped to a lifetime low against the greenback. On Wednesday, […]

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Bank of Japan Intervenes in Foreign Exchange Markets After Yen Slips to 24-Year Low

Bank of Japan Intervenes in Foreign Exchange Markets After Yen Slips to 24-Year LowWhile the greenback has been rising higher, the Japanese yen tapped a 24-year low and Japan decided to intervene in foreign exchange markets (forex) for the first time since 1998. Reports say the Bank of Japan conducted the first forex intervention in 24 years, after the Japanese central bank kept its benchmark bank rate suppressed […]

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BoJ official says digital yen won’t be used to achieve negative interest rate

The Bank of Japan’s Executive Director announced that the eagerly-awaited digital yen won’t be used to attain negative interest rates.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has said that its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), the digital yen, will not be used to help attain negative interest rates. 

The BoJ’s Executive Director, Shinichi Uchida made the announcement in his most recent public speech.

“While the idea of using such a functionality as a means to achieve a negative interest rate is sometimes discussed in academia, the Bank will not introduce CBDC on this ground.”

Japan initially adopted negative interest rates in 2016 in an attempt to combat decades of deflation by encouraging borrowing and spending. Negative interest rates are only used as a last resort by central banks during a recession to stimulate an economy by encouraging borrowing and spending, with interest being paid to borrowers rather than lenders.

Echoing this sentiment was former head of the BoJ’s financial settlement department Hiromi Yamaoka, who warned earlier this year that CBDCs could potentially destroy the Japanese economy. While Yamaoka agreed with the idea of digitizing payment methods, he did not support the idea of using a CBDC for it.

Senior Wall Street Journal columnist James Mackintosh has similarly argued that the difference between a CBDC and cash would be highlighted if interest rates fell below zero. People would be more inclined to hold on to physical cash to “earn zero” rather than lose money on a digital dollar issued by the central bank.

In his speech, Uchida stated that if the creation of digital yen does move forward, then Japanese citizens can expect the CBDC to be released with a series of unique features.

The bank is considering imposing a limit on the transaction amount of each individual or entity for the duration of the pilot, and is also contemplating whether or not to make the digital yen an interest-bearing asset.

The BoJ first shared its three-phase trial outline for its central bank digital currency (CBDC) in October 2020. The first two phases of the trial are focused on testing the proofs-of-concept while the third phase would see a pilot currency be launched.

The first phase began in April 2021 and finished on March 22 this year. The BoJ began its second phase of trials on March 24, stating that it would begin testing the more technical aspects around the issuance of the digital yen.

However, the governor of the BoJ, Haruhiko Kuroda, announced at Japan’s FIN/SUM fintech summit earlier this month that it has no plans to introduce a CBDC anytime soon.

Related: Former BOJ official warns against use of digital yen in the financial sector

Kuroda explained that the BoJ plans to carefully consider the expected roles of central bank money in the lives of Japanese citizens before making any major decision or announcements.

“We consider it important to prepare thoroughly to respond to changes in circumstances in an appropriate manner, from the viewpoint of ensuring the stability and efficiency of the overall payment and settlement systems.”

The popularity of CBDCs continues to grow as governments around the world look to the potential benefits of the digital assets. On Tuesday April 12, Brazil’s central bank confirmed that a CBDC pilot program would be launching by the second half of this year, while the Reserve Bank of South Africa finalized its technical proof-of-concept concerning its CBDC.

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