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Bitcoin price tops K, but a few concerning headwinds remain

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Bitcoin price shows strength as investors expect the Fed to resume printing, but a handful of global macroeconomic headwinds are still in play.

Bitcoin (BTC) last closed above $68,000 on April 11, despite trading above $67,000 several times in the past five days. Even as Bitcoin gained 2% on May 20, another 7% move is needed to meet its all-time high. Meanwhile, gold reached a record high of $2,450 on May 20, and the S&P 500 index climbed to its all-time peak of 5,325 points. This backdrop has left BTC investors pondering the factors restraining its progress.

It can be argued that Bitcoin’s 51% gains year-to-date reflect investors’ anticipation of the monetary expansion that has recently benefited other assets. With the United States Federal Reserve needing to inject liquidity — either to support the troubled banking sector or to stimulate the economy — investors typically turn to scarce assets for protection. This inclination intensifies if there is an increasing likelihood of an economic recession.

According to UFed data, the broader U.S. monetary base (M2), which had stagnated at $20.8 trillion since May 2023, surpassed $21.0 trillion in April 2024. This shift marks the end of a contraction period that began in April 2022 when the M2 indicator reached $22 trillion. Regardless of interest rate trends, the increase in circulating money suggests rising inflationary pressures, even if companies and individuals are currently hesitant to spend.

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Bitcoin rallies as central bank stimulus packages become more common, and the Fed’s signal of “higher for longer” interest rates aligns with investors’ market view.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2% in the last 24-hours, recovering after two days of difficulty in surpassing the $61,500 resistance. By sustaining price levels above $62,500, the current upside movement demonstrates that Bitcoin can still experience positive price fluctuations regardless of the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, which saw $100 million in net outflows over four days.

Several factors have improved sentiment toward cryptocurrencies, beginning with China's announcement of issuing $138 million in long-term bonds to boost the economy. Although this was expected since the announcement in March, it reaffirmed that governments are acknowledging increased risks of recession. This was in response to data indicating that China's aggregate credit decreased in April for the first time in seven years.

Zou Wang, an investment director at Shanghai Anfang Private Fund Management, told Reuters that the market now anticipates further liquidity injections from China's central bank, possibly including cuts to interest rates. Such actions would exacerbate issues stemming from recent expansive measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), which led to an increase in the U.S. monetary supply in March for the first time in two years.

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