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Warren Buffett was wrong about a ‘rat poison’ Bitcoin portfolio, data shows

Warren Buffett is not a big fan of Bitcoin and this position has cost his investment portfolio at least a 320,000% potential gain.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett sees no value in Bitcoin (BTC), infamously calling it "rat poison squared." But data shows that adding Bitcoin to a so-called "Rat Poison Portfolio," an equally weighted portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, JPMorgan, and BlackRock stocks, would have produced much better returns for The Oracle of Omaha.

"Rat poison portfolio" with Bitcoin does better 

Since 2014, allocating only 2.5% Bitcoin yearly to the "Rat Poison Portfolio" increases returns by nearly 20% with reduced risks, according to independent market analyst Alpha Zeta. For now, the portfolio's returns stand around 16%.

Rat poison portfolio with Bitcoin allocations. Source: Alpha Zeta

Despite Bitcoin's notorious price volatility, Alpha Zeta noted that BTC's correlation with the stocks of Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, JP Morgan, and BlackRock is very low.

Correlation between Bitcoin and Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, JP Morgan, and BlackRock stocks since 2014. Source: Alpha Zeta

For instance, during the 2021-2023 bear market, allocating Bitcoin to the Rat Poison Portfolio could have negated losses by around 10%.

Rat Poison Portfolio drawdown including Bitcoin's 2.5% allocation. Source: Alpha Zeta

In other words, BTC typically negates losses imposed by the downside movements in the said stocks. Therefore, allocating a small portion of Bitcoin to the Rat Poison Portfolio has proven to be a reasonable hedging strategy to offset potential negative returns.

Bitcoin outperformed Berkshire Hathaway by 320,000%

Bitcoin's proponents have projected it as an alternative to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, given the scarcity that comes with its fixed 21 million BTC supply and increasing deflation over time.

This has attracted many people to buy Bitcoin as a way of offsetting fiat debasement and excessive money printing of central banks around the world. For instance, the number of non-zero Bitcoin addresses has grown from around 2,500 in 2009 to over 45 million in 2023, per Glassnode.

The number of non-zero Bitcoin addresses since 2009. Source: Glassnode

Nonetheless, Buffett believes Bitcoin recently said that Bitcoin is a gambling token, noting that "it doesn't have any intrinsic value [...], but that doesn't stop people from wanting to play the roulette wheel."

However, the veteran investor continues to have exposure in the broader crypto market through his popular investments, such as Nubank, which offers crypto-related services in Latin America.

Related: Financial analyst agrees Bitcoin could be 'rat poison,' but not in the way you think

As of April 2023, Bitcoin is down nearly 60% from its record high of $69,000 in November 2021, but is up 100% so far this year.

Since its market debut on Jan. 9, 2019, Bitcoin has outperformed Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio by over 320,000%.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin is beating Warren Buffett’s ‘crypto bet’ in 2023

Bitcoin's rebound in 2023 has also seen Coinbase stock gaining over 100% year-to-date, boosting Cathie Wood's ARK portfolio.

In 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) and Cathie Wood's Coinbase (COIN) investment are finally outperforming Warren Buffett's popular "crypto bet" in Brazil's fintech giant Nubank (NU). 

Bitcoin vs. crypto-exposure stocks NU, COIN

As of March 17, Bitcoin's price is up nearly 55% year-to-date (YTD). In comparison, Nubank has risen by only 26%. Meanwhile, another crypto-exposure asset, namely Coinbase stock (COIN), has seen the biggest rebound of the three, rising over 100% YTD. 

BTC/USD and COIN versus NU yearly performance. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, Buffett's investment has fared better than COIN over the past 12 months.

As of March 17, NU is down 38% year-over-year compared to COIN's 61.76%, nearly equal to Bitcoin's 37% losses in the same period.

Warren Buffett sticks by his neobank investment

Buffett's investment firm Berkshire Hathaway purchased $1.50 billion worth of class-A Nubank stock in two separate rounds in July 2021 and February 2022.

The news came as a surprise to many since Buffett is a well-known cryptocurrency critic, and Nubank offers crypto trading services via one of its wings called Nucripto. In May 2022, the bank said that it would allocate 1% of its net assets to Bitcoin.

“This move reinforces the company’s conviction in Bitcoin’s current and future potential in disrupting financial services in the region,” Nubank said at the time.

But despite Nubank's crypto exposure and NU's price decline, Buffett has not sold a single share, according to Berkshire's latest annual earnings report.

The decision to keep holding NU through a rough market likely coincides with Nubank's growth in the Latin American banking sector.

Nu Holdings, the parent company of Nubank, reported a solid 2022 with 140% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 38% year-over-year rise in active customers. 

Cathie Wood doubling down on COIN in 2023

The same cannot be said about Coinbase's earnings in 2022 with its 57% drop in year-over-year revenue.

Related: Crypto acted as safe haven amid SVB and Signature bank run: Cathie Wood

But ARK Invest CEO, Cathie Wood, appears unfazed by continuing to buy COIN shares via her ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) in 2023. The COIN buys, in particular, account for roughly 30% of all the stock purchased so far this year.

COIN weight across ARK ETFs portfolios. Source: Ark Invest

As a result, Coinbase has become Wood's fifth-largest holding on record worth nearly $670 million at the time of writing. 

Holding Bitcoin a better strategy?

Comparing Bitcoin's price performance with the market debut of Coinbase and Nu Holdings reaffirms that BTC not only regularly outperform stocks, but also crypto-exposure stocks. Although exceptions have been seen, such as with the Bitcoin mining stock boom in 2021. 

But overall, holding Bitcoin is proving to be a better strategy year-over-year, and likely with more upside potential, than traditional stocks. 

Notably, NU has dropped by more than 50% since its market debut in December 2021. Since then, BTC has fared better with a 44% decline in the same period. 

NU's returns since market debut vs. BTC. Source: TradingView

Similarly, COIN is down 80% since its IPO in April 2021. The same down-cycle, however, has seen Bitcoin only losing around 50%, emerging as better performer overall against crypto-exposure stocks such as Coinbase and Nu Holdings.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Community mocks Charlie Munger for his obsession with China’s Bitcoin ban

The online community has expressed bewilderment over how China’s crypto ban aligns with the United States’ proclaimed principles of freedom.

The cryptocurrency community has ridiculed well-known Bitcoin (BTC) critic Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, for calling the United States to follow in the footsteps of China and ban crypto.

In an op-ed article in The Wall Street Journal, the 99-year-old investment veteran has once again slammed crypto, calling a cryptocurrency a “gambling contract with a nearly 100% edge for the house.”

Munger also said that a cryptocurrency is “not a currency, not a commodity, and not a security,” adding that “obviously” the U.S. should enact a new federal law that would ban crypto.

According to Munger, the best way to approach crypto is to follow the example of China, which put a blanket ban on crypto in September 2021. The Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman stated:

“What should the U.S. do after a ban of cryptocurrencies is in place? Well, one more action might make sense: Thank the Chinese communist leader for his splendid example of uncommon sense.”

The community was quick to react to Munger’s latest anti-crypto arguments, with many expressing bewilderment about how measures like China’s crypto ban stack up with the United States’ proclamations that it supports freedom.

“The battle lines are being drawn. Freedom or tyranny. Non-custodial wallets are the hill we can’t surrender,” NFT APE author Adam McBride wrote on Twitter.

Others also mocked Munger for not understanding that crypto is virtually unbannable. Indeed, even after “banning” crypto in 2021, China has continued to be the second-largest Bitcoin miner in the world, and possessing crypto is apparently still legal. Moreover, the idea of lifting the crypto ban has been floating around in China for a while.

Given that Munger called cryptocurrency a “gambling contract,” it’s worth noting that gambling is legal under U.S. federal law, despite people losing significant money from it.

Related: EU lawmakers vote for more restrictive capital requirements on banks holding crypto

According to data from the American Gaming Association, U.S. casinos and mobile gaming apps hit a record $54.93 billion in revenue during the first 11 months of 2022. The revenues came at the cost of Americans losing more money on gambling than ever before by the first quarter of 2022.

Many European countries also allow at least some gambling, with about 420,000 British gamblers losing more than $2,000 per year.

Despite casinos causing significant losses for investors, Europe and the U.S. have not followed in the footsteps of China, which banned most forms of gambling back in 1949.

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Is MATIC price about to double? Polygon’s Reddit hype pushes exchange balance to 9-month lows

MATIC price could sustain bullish momentum on cues from a mix of optimistic fundamental and technical indicators.

A sharp rebound in the Polygon (MATIC) market in the last four months has increased its price by 200% when measured from its June 2022 bottom of $0.31. And now, the token is showing signs of undergoing another major market rally.

MATIC exchange balance hits nine-month low

Notably, the MATIC supply held by all crypto exchanges fell to 802.15 million on Oct. 26, its lowest level since January 2022. The plunge came as a part of a broader downtrend that has witnessed over 600 million MATIC leaving exchanges in the last four months, data on Santiment shows.

MATIC balance on exchanges versus price. Source: Santiment

A declining crypto balance across exchanges is perceived as bullish by the market since traders typically withdraw their funds from trading platforms when they want to hold the tokens long term.

The MATIC chart above shows a similar albeit erratic negative correlation between its price and supply on exchanges. As a result, a period of decline in MATIC reserves at exchanges has historically coincided with an uptrend in price, and vice versa. 

Therefore, the latest plunge in MATIC supply across exchanges hints at more upside for the token in the coming weeks.

Reddit using Polygon to mint collectible NFT avatars

More cues for a potential MATIC price rally come from the news of Polygon's adoption by mainstream fintech companies.

Notably, Nubank, a Brazilian neobank bank backed by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, picked Polygon to build its native Web3 ecosystem. Since the Oct. 20 announcement, MATIC price has rallied by nearly 12% and was trading for $0.95 as of Oct. 26.

Furthermore, the massive MATIC outflow from exchanges coincides with the soaring trading and sales volume of Reddit nonfungible token (NFT) avatars. These digital collectibles are minted as NFTs on the Polygon blockchain.

Reddit NFTs sales volumes. Source: Dune Analytics

From a technical perspective, MATIC has broken out of a bullish continuation pattern, dubbed a bull flag, whose profit target sits almost double the token's current valuation, as shown below.

MATIC/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

MATIC also shows similar strength against Bitcoin (BTC), according to a technical setup shared by Kaleo, an independent market analyst.

"The predominate structure is a HTF [higher timeframe] flag dating back to May of '21 that looks ready for another leg higher," the analyst wrote while citing the chart below.

MATIC/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

"I'm expecting a small retrace before breaking out / continuing higher," he added.

Related: Bitcoin will shoot over $100K in 2023 before ‘largest bear market’ — Trader

The MATIC/BTC setup could propel the pair to 0.000065 BTC by early 2023 versus the current price of 0.0000458 BTC, a 30% price rally.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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