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Spot ETF-induced Bitcoin rally isn’t guaranteed to stick: Analysts

November 2, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin bull market

Investors will likely see Bitcoin surge even more when a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, but other factors are needed for the rally to sustain, warn analysts.

While the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) will likely spike the price of Bitcoin, some analysts are concerned it won’t be enough to fully thaw the markets from its winter chill.

On Oct. 24 Bitcoin staged its largest single day rally in over a year, surging more than 14% on the news that the ticker of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF — IBTC — had been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website, something markets understood as a positive step forward for the funds’ application.

The surge turned out to be even stronger than that of oOct. 16, when Cointelegraph’s incorrect tweet that suggested a spot Bitcoin ETF had been approved.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, pseudonymous trader TheFlowHorse — who boasts 184,000 followers on X — said that the two market blips can be seen as a hint of Bitcoin’s price action should a spot Bitcoin ETF be approved.

Addressing the two developments and its impact on Bitcoin,Horse added that investors could expect to see a move of “the same, if not greater magnitude” if the ETF is approved.

*The price of Bitcoin surged to north of $35k on Oct. 24. Source: TradingView*

However, Horse notes that while approval will likely drive prices significantlyupward, it’s also likely it will be followed by an eventual retrace in the mid-term.

This is because, in Horses’ view, the trade will be crowded heavily by eager investors looking to chase the news.

“You're going to have a ton of crowding… and that's ultimately an inefficient move. The inefficient moves get refilled and retrace to some degree,” he added.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG international, told Cointelegraph that he expects to see Bitcoin continue to surge through new yearly highs on the day of the announcement, while Rachel Lucas, a technical analyst at Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, said the approval of BlackRock’s ETF will act as a catalyst for the rest of the traditional finance sector.

“This participation not only amplifies institutional capital inflows but also heightens retail curiosity, contributes to supply limitations, and underscores the deflationary aspect of Bitcoin.”

Here's a short clip of @kaileyleinz asking Gensler about $GBTC and other spot #Bitcoin ETFs. Mostly non-answers in my opinion but does talk about the disclosure review team. We've had some insight into their process via the amendments from some of these filers in recent days pic.twitter.com/lIWZc74OAi
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 18, 2023

However, while Sycamore said there’s a chance the “rally could stick” — a full-scale trend reversal for Bitcoin seems unlikely given that interest rates remain considerably higher than they were when Bitcoin notched its previous all-time-high.

Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC markets also believes it would be worthwhile to adopt a more cautious stance, as there’s no guarantee of an all-out trend reversal.

“Bitcoin still lacks the fundamentals to support a quantitative valuation like shares and does not have the scope of utilization like commodities. Approval by the SEC can not change the nature of it being a speculative asset.”

“Macro changes will have a major impact on the crypto markets, which usually start building an upside trend during a Fed rate cut cycle,” Teng concluded.

The certainty and timing of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is still up for debate. While unlikely, ETF analysts said that SEC Chair Gary Gensler could be waiting until the very last minute to pull off an “amazingly sadistic” denial of the impending applications.

While analysts from JP Morgan claimed in an Oct. 17 investment note that an approval could arrive within the next few months, the general consensus — held by Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas — peg the chances of an approval by Jan. 10 next year at 90%.

I've gotten a lot of questions regarding my current view on Spot #Bitcoin ETFs over the last couple weeks. This is the first section of the note I put out yesterday with @EricBalchunas.

TLDR: Our view hasn't changed much https://t.co/dRAm5IsdQf pic.twitter.com/Htsi3n2XxV
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 13, 2023

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Bitcoin ETFs or not, don’t expect a ‘sexy’ crypto bull run: Concordium founder

September 22, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin bull market

Experts remain divided on when the next bull market is set to kick off, but they all agree on one thing: the next big rally won’t look like the last one.

The next crypto bull run will look nothing like the last one and investors should tame their expectations of an imminent rocketing of cryptocurrency prices.

At least that’s what Lars Seier Christensen, the founder of enterprise blockchain Concordium told Cointelegraph in a recent interview.

As the majority of the crypto market looks to the swathe of proposed spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds with bullishness, Christiensen is doubtful their approval will be an immediately meaningful driver for the crypto markets.

“Even if you do get a Bitcoin rally — I don't think you should naturally assume that everything is going to rally with it.”

“Does that necessarily mean that Ethereum and a lot of the older altcoins are going to rally on the back of it too? I think that's nearly certain not going to happen,” he added.

NEXT DATES TO WATCH:

Middle of October are the next major days to watch. Namely October 16th. (& @GlobalXETFs' Oct 7)

Also, reminder that we fully expected delays on this round of spot #Bitcoin ETF filings. Would have been a shock if they were approved this week. pic.twitter.com/i14fg8FWun
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 31, 2023

Christiensen said that while digital asset prices have dampened over the last 18 months, in contrast, there’s an unabated interest in blockchain technology from the corporate side.

This means that the next big step for the industry won't be marked by a particularly “sexy” rally, where prices of crypto assets surge like they did in 2021 — rather a more subdued growth that will occur gradually over the next 18 months, noting:

“The only reason corporate types need a crypto asset is in order to execute what they want to do on a given blockchain. So, I think it's very clear that you need to be aware that they're not in desperate need for a given crypto to increase significantly in value."

Not everyone would be inclined to agree with Christensen, however.

Ben Simpson, the founder of crypto education platform Collective Shift said there’s a wealth of data and indicators that suggest that we’re already witnessing the initial stages of a Bitcoin bull market.

“The drawdown from All-Time High chart and Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) suggest we're in the final stages of accumulation, often a precursor to a bull market,” explained Simpson.

When it comes to the assets most primed for a major boom, Simpson believes the next bull market will blow wind into the sails of Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and application-specific tokens and sectors like gaming.

“DeFi tokens are risky but offer significant upside, and Bitcoin I believe emerges as the 'silent winner' amid broader adoption and one I'm most bullish on.”

“A Bitcoin ETF won’t have any impact on the price” pic.twitter.com/ArSTwskEec
— Ben Simpson (@bensimpsonau) September 13, 2023

The last two-year period has been tough for the crypto industry. An increasingly hawkish federal reserve combined with a number of high-profile collapses including the likes of FTX and Celsius Network, have seen investment in the industry dwindle, bringing down the prices of crypto assets along with it.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve deciding to press pause on any interest rate hikes earlier in the week, eToro Markets analyst Josh Gilbert views the broader macro outlook with a sense of optimism.

BREAKING : THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS JUST PAUSED IT’S INTEREST RATE HIKES AND WILL KEEP INTEREST RATES AT THE CURRENT LEVEL pic.twitter.com/meRkOhhWfh
— GURGAVIN (@gurgavin) September 20, 2023

“We’ve finally got an improving macro environment with rate cuts on the horizon from central banks globally. As rates begin to fall and inflation subsides, investors will take on more risk, deploying more capital into financial markets — and crypto will be front and center,” he said.

Like many market commentators in recent months, Gilbert asserted that next year looks primed for a rally.

“2024 could be a strong year for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The bitcoin halving is the centerpiece of this theory and it’s the major catalyst optimistic investors are focused on.”

However, Tina Teng, a market analyst from CMC Markets explained that it’s far too early to start worrying about whether or not massive gains are on the horizon. Instead, investors should be bracing themselves for a new wave of uncertainty.

“It’s too early to say that it's the start of a bull market in crypto. This would depend on the macro environment and hinge on whether or not central banks are willing to end their rate hike cycles to provide enough liquidity to the markets,” said Teng.

“Tightening monetary policy is behind the decline in riskier asset classes, such as startups, small caps, and cryptocurrencies. In history, the cryptocurrency market’s boom happened during the Fed’s rate cut cycle but not a hiking cycle.”

“The rampant government bond yields and inverted bond yields repeatedly flash warning signals for economic uncertainty ahead.”

#Bitcoin is racing down to realized loss on the 50-day moving average of the RPV ratio.

And if previous cycles tell us anything, this is the last time it happens until the next cycle top!

Each cycle, Bitcoin makes a… pic.twitter.com/Rrw7wYKbvA
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) September 1, 2023

Teng says for an imminent bull market thesis to be validated, Bitcoin needs to break through the 50-day moving average and catch a ride on another surge upwards.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Crypto market ‘dramatically underestimates’ bullishness of spot Bitcoin ETFs

September 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin bull market

“It’s reckless not to aggressively accumulate BTC at current levels,” K33 senior analyst Velte Lund said in a recent report.

The potential of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval to drive prices up is dramatically underestimated by the crypto market, claim analysts from crypto research firm K33 — formerly Arcane Research.

In a Sept. 5 market report, K33 senior analyst Vetle Lunde and vice president Anders Helseth said the last three months had greatly improved the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval despite the sentiment not being reflected in the price of Bitcoin or other mainstay crypto assets.

The analysts explained while Bitcoin had all but given up its gains in the wake of Grayscale’s legal victory over the Securities and Exchange Commission — an approval would “attract enormous inflows” and significantly increase buying pressure for Bitcoin.

*Bitcoin returned its gains in the wake of Grayscale's victory. Source: K33 Research*

However, the downside of a potential spot ETF rejection would be “negligible” and Bitcoin prices would simply maintain business as usual, they wrote.

Lunde and Helseth added that given the increased likelihood of spot ETF approvals — with several Bloomberg analysts now predicting a 75% chance of approval within the year — the market's outlook on ETFs is fundamentally incorrect.

“I firmly believe the market is wrong. This is, by all accounts, a buyer’s market, and it’s reckless not to aggressively accumulate BTC at current levels.”

Bolstering their bullish prediction, the analysts looked to the recent 2% gain in the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index, often viewed as an indicator of the broader market's risk appetite.

ETH set to outperform BTC

Additionally, Lunde and Helserth shared their optimism for the price of Ether (ETH), explaining that ETH appears likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next two months as it will benefit from strong momentum ahead of a futures-based ETF listing.

They explained Ether may track a similar path to Bitcoin which gained roughly 60% in the weeks leading up to the launch of the first Bitcoin futures-based ETF on Oct. 19, 2021.

The verdict on a futures-based Ether ETF is slated to be handed down in mid-October which is reportedly set to get the green light from the SEC.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in