Crypto Fear and Greed Index Touches ‘Extreme Greed’ as Bitcoin Soars, Echoing 2021’s Highs

February 14, 2024 Bitcoin.com

Bitcoin’s huge rally has nuked $6B in shorts this year: S3 Partners

December 7, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin futures open interest on CME nears 2021 all-time high

December 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The futures positioning on CME shows Bitcoin could still move higher from its current price, says IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore.

Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest has reached $5.2 billion on the global derivatives giant Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), $200 million shy of its late October 2021 all-time high.

Open interest in CME’s Bitcoin futures has grown from $3.63 billion to $5.20 billion over the last 30 days, according to Coinglass data.

*CME’s Bitcoin futures open interest reached $5.2 billion on Dec. Source: Coinglass*

From Oct.

The rapid uptick in open interest also coincided with a drastic price jump for Bitcoin, which grew from $45,000 to $66,000.

IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph the open interest uptick shows a renewed interest in Bitcoin, but it doesn’t explain how CME traders are positioned.

Sycamore pointed to CME’s Nov. 28 report to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which showed the “big players” on its platform were sitting net short at the time, with 20,724 short positions compared to 18,979 longs, Sycamore explained.

*Futures positions on CME had been net short as of Nov. Source: CFTC*

Until CME’s latest report comes through on Tuesday, Dec.

“What we can’t see right now is whether the big players have gone from a net short to a net long, Sycamore said.

The massive uptick in Bitcoin’s price is being driven by more than just speculation around the SEC’s potential approval of a roster of spot ETF products, Sycamore added.

Spot ETF-induced Bitcoin rally isn’t guaranteed to stick: Analysts

November 2, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin bull market

Investors will likely see Bitcoin surge even more when a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, but other factors are needed for the rally to sustain, warn analysts.

While the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) will likely spike the price of Bitcoin, some analysts are concerned it won’t be enough to fully thaw the markets from its winter chill.

On Oct. 24 Bitcoin staged its largest single day rally in over a year, surging more than 14% on the news that the ticker of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF — IBTC — had been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website, something markets understood as a positive step forward for the funds’ application.

The surge turned out to be even stronger than that of oOct. 16, when Cointelegraph’s incorrect tweet that suggested a spot Bitcoin ETF had been approved.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, pseudonymous trader TheFlowHorse — who boasts 184,000 followers on X — said that the two market blips can be seen as a hint of Bitcoin’s price action should a spot Bitcoin ETF be approved.

Addressing the two developments and its impact on Bitcoin,Horse added that investors could expect to see a move of “the same, if not greater magnitude” if the ETF is approved.

*The price of Bitcoin surged to north of $35k on Oct. 24. Source: TradingView*

However, Horse notes that while approval will likely drive prices significantlyupward, it’s also likely it will be followed by an eventual retrace in the mid-term.

This is because, in Horses’ view, the trade will be crowded heavily by eager investors looking to chase the news.

“You're going to have a ton of crowding… and that's ultimately an inefficient move. The inefficient moves get refilled and retrace to some degree,” he added.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG international, told Cointelegraph that he expects to see Bitcoin continue to surge through new yearly highs on the day of the announcement, while Rachel Lucas, a technical analyst at Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, said the approval of BlackRock’s ETF will act as a catalyst for the rest of the traditional finance sector.

“This participation not only amplifies institutional capital inflows but also heightens retail curiosity, contributes to supply limitations, and underscores the deflationary aspect of Bitcoin.”

Here's a short clip of @kaileyleinz asking Gensler about $GBTC and other spot #Bitcoin ETFs. Mostly non-answers in my opinion but does talk about the disclosure review team. We've had some insight into their process via the amendments from some of these filers in recent days pic.twitter.com/lIWZc74OAi
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 18, 2023

However, while Sycamore said there’s a chance the “rally could stick” — a full-scale trend reversal for Bitcoin seems unlikely given that interest rates remain considerably higher than they were when Bitcoin notched its previous all-time-high.

Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC markets also believes it would be worthwhile to adopt a more cautious stance, as there’s no guarantee of an all-out trend reversal.

“Bitcoin still lacks the fundamentals to support a quantitative valuation like shares and does not have the scope of utilization like commodities. Approval by the SEC can not change the nature of it being a speculative asset.”

“Macro changes will have a major impact on the crypto markets, which usually start building an upside trend during a Fed rate cut cycle,” Teng concluded.

The certainty and timing of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is still up for debate. While unlikely, ETF analysts said that SEC Chair Gary Gensler could be waiting until the very last minute to pull off an “amazingly sadistic” denial of the impending applications.

While analysts from JP Morgan claimed in an Oct. 17 investment note that an approval could arrive within the next few months, the general consensus — held by Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas — peg the chances of an approval by Jan. 10 next year at 90%.

I've gotten a lot of questions regarding my current view on Spot #Bitcoin ETFs over the last couple weeks. This is the first section of the note I put out yesterday with @EricBalchunas.

TLDR: Our view hasn't changed much https://t.co/dRAm5IsdQf pic.twitter.com/Htsi3n2XxV
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 13, 2023

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Crypto market ‘dramatically underestimates’ bullishness of spot Bitcoin ETFs

September 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin bull market

“It’s reckless not to aggressively accumulate BTC at current levels,” K33 senior analyst Velte Lund said in a recent report.

The potential of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval to drive prices up is dramatically underestimated by the crypto market, claim analysts from crypto research firm K33 — formerly Arcane Research.

In a Sept. 5 market report, K33 senior analyst Vetle Lunde and vice president Anders Helseth said the last three months had greatly improved the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval despite the sentiment not being reflected in the price of Bitcoin or other mainstay crypto assets.

The analysts explained while Bitcoin had all but given up its gains in the wake of Grayscale’s legal victory over the Securities and Exchange Commission — an approval would “attract enormous inflows” and significantly increase buying pressure for Bitcoin.

*Bitcoin returned its gains in the wake of Grayscale's victory. Source: K33 Research*

However, the downside of a potential spot ETF rejection would be “negligible” and Bitcoin prices would simply maintain business as usual, they wrote.

Lunde and Helseth added that given the increased likelihood of spot ETF approvals — with several Bloomberg analysts now predicting a 75% chance of approval within the year — the market's outlook on ETFs is fundamentally incorrect.

“I firmly believe the market is wrong. This is, by all accounts, a buyer’s market, and it’s reckless not to aggressively accumulate BTC at current levels.”

Bolstering their bullish prediction, the analysts looked to the recent 2% gain in the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index, often viewed as an indicator of the broader market's risk appetite.

ETH set to outperform BTC

Additionally, Lunde and Helserth shared their optimism for the price of Ether (ETH), explaining that ETH appears likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next two months as it will benefit from strong momentum ahead of a futures-based ETF listing.

They explained Ether may track a similar path to Bitcoin which gained roughly 60% in the weeks leading up to the launch of the first Bitcoin futures-based ETF on Oct. 19, 2021.

The verdict on a futures-based Ether ETF is slated to be handed down in mid-October which is reportedly set to get the green light from the SEC.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Bitcoin dips below $25K for the first time in 3 months

June 15, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The price of Bitcoin plunged 4% as the Federal Reserve pressed pause on interest rates.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $25,000 mark for the first time since March 17 following a hawkish Fed announcement amidanother turbulent week for the crypto industry.

Within the span of 30 minutes on June 15, the price of Bitcoin fell 4% from $25,867 to $24,819 according to data from TradingView. At the time of publication Bitcoin has regained ground and is holding just above $25,000.

*Bitcoin price from June 12 to June 15. Source: TradingView.*

Over the past week Bitcoin had been holding around the $26,000 region as the market came to grips with the SEC’s legal action against crypto exchange heavyweights Coinbase and Binance as well as increasing macroeconomic uncertainty around interest rate signals from the United States Federal Reserve.

The sharp drop in price arrived roughly three hours after the Federal Reserve announced a pause on interest rate hikes, following a fifteen-month-long campaign of rate increases to combat surging inflation.

While the market was almost unanimously expecting a rate pause, the Federal Open Markets Committee statement hinted at further rate hikes in the future, which typically blunts investor excitement for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

According to eToro Market Analyst Josh Gilbert, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has made it quite clear that this is only a temporary pause, something that could spell further trouble for Bitcoin in the long-term.

"Much of the positivity we’ve seen from risk assets this year, including Bitcoin, is built on the expectation that inflation will fall and interest rates will peak, and then begin to be cut," Gilbert said.

Inflation is moving in the right direction but the comments from Jerome Powell signify that rates could stay higher for longer, which would put Bitcoin on the back foot."

The second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Ether (ETH), also took a hit, falling more than 5% from $1,727 to $1,631 in the same time frame. Altcoins were not spared from the bearish sentiment either, with many of the tokens labeled as securities in the SEC’s lawsuits stumbling another than 3%.

Cardano (ADA) is currently down 3.4% in the last 24 hours, while Polygon (MATIC) and Solana (SOL) fell 3.3% and 2.8% respectively.

According to Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman, current options data for Bitcoin suggests a further slide to the downside, especially when considering the regulatory hostility towards the crypto industry on U.S. soil combined with the likelihood of further rate increases from the Fed in the coming months.

Magazine: Bitcoin is on a collision course with ‘Net Zero’ promises

Update (June 15, 1:40am UTC): This article has been updated to include comments from eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert.