Where will Bitcoin’s price be at the next halving in 2028?

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December 14, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin futures open interest on CME nears 2021 all-time high

December 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The futures positioning on CME shows Bitcoin could still move higher from its current price, says IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore.

Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest has reached $5.2 billion on the global derivatives giant Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), $200 million shy of its late October 2021 all-time high.

Open interest in CME’s Bitcoin futures has grown from $3.63 billion to $5.20 billion over the last 30 days, according to Coinglass data.

*CME’s Bitcoin futures open interest reached $5.2 billion on Dec. Source: Coinglass*

From Oct.

The rapid uptick in open interest also coincided with a drastic price jump for Bitcoin, which grew from $45,000 to $66,000.

IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph the open interest uptick shows a renewed interest in Bitcoin, but it doesn’t explain how CME traders are positioned.

Sycamore pointed to CME’s Nov. 28 report to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which showed the “big players” on its platform were sitting net short at the time, with 20,724 short positions compared to 18,979 longs, Sycamore explained.

*Futures positions on CME had been net short as of Nov. Source: CFTC*

Until CME’s latest report comes through on Tuesday, Dec.

“What we can’t see right now is whether the big players have gone from a net short to a net long, Sycamore said.

The massive uptick in Bitcoin’s price is being driven by more than just speculation around the SEC’s potential approval of a roster of spot ETF products, Sycamore added.

Demand for Bitcoin could grow by up to 10X within 12 months: Michael Saylor

November 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Australian Crypto Convention

The MicroStrategy co-founder emphasized that demand for Bitcoin will significantly ramp up following the halving next year.

With the Bitcoin halving just months away, MicroStrategy co-founder and Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor thinks that demand for BTC could grow by as much as 10X by the end of 2024.

During a speech at the 2023 Australia Crypto Convention on Nov. 10, Saylor was asked to give his outlook for Bitcoin and its ecosystem over the next four to five years.

In response, Saylor initially gave a rundown on the period between 2020 and 2024, noting that Bitcoin went from being seen as a “offshore unregulated asset” to an “institutionalized mainstream app.”

Honing in on the near term, Saylor said that BTC will become a “adolescent mainstream asset by the end of 2024,” as he highlighted key dynamics surrounding supply and demand that will soon come into play:

“I think that this next 12 months is going to be a big. Because demand [on a monthly basis] should double or triple or maybe go up by a factor of 10, anywhere from two to 10. [...] and the supply available for sale will be cut in half in April.”

“So instead of a billion dollars of Bitcoin available for miners each month, it will be half a billion. It's pretty unprecedented that you would go from a supply and demand balance of maybe $15 billion of organic demand and $12 billion of organic supply. What happens when one doubles, and the other one cuts in half ? the price is going to adjust up,” he added.

*Speakers at the Melbourne-based event. Source: Australian Crypto Convention*

Saylor went on to describe the next 12 months for Bitcoin as its “coming out party” as the asset graduates from “college” and heads out into the real world.

Looking at 2024 to 2028, Saylor predicted that Bitcoin will continue to be in a high-growth stage as adoption spreads across the big tech industry and mega banks worldwide, with both sectors integrating Bitcoin into their products and services.

Saylor also said he expects to see a lot of competition among companies like Apple and Meta (Facebook) to get their hands on BTC to eventually sell for major profits.

“You're going to have ferocious competition and will among Wall Streeters to get the most asset share and you're going to have crypto exchanges competing and you're going to have other tech companies getting involved. [...] That’ll be one check.”

“The other check will be when the big mega banks or Bitcoin custodians with JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and, you know [...] when they're making loans and giving mortgages and customising it and buying and selling it. I think that'll be the second check,” he added.

Looking even further into the future, at around 25 years, Saylor outlined some lofty predictions for the future of Bitcoin, as he emphasized that BTC will blow any other high-quality asset out of the water.

“When it hits that terminal growth rate, maybe 20 years out, maybe 25 years, or it'll be growing twice as fast or compounding twice as fast as the S&P 500 Index, or any other diversified high quality portfolio of assets you could buy,” he said, adding:

“So if you think about it like that, you just say, well [...] now we're going to double we're going to double again, we're going to double again, and we're going to double again, that coin is going to continue to progress to a million dollars a coin, $2 million a coin, $5 million a coin, $10 million a coin.”

MicroStrategy currently holds around 158,400 BTC, and the firm was up around $900 million on its investment as of Nov. 2.

Magazine: Recursive inscriptions — Bitcoin ‘supercomputer’ and BTC DeFi coming soon

How high can Bitcoin price go by 2024?

October 18, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin etf

Historic price fractal, strong technicals and Bitcoin ETF approval euphoria could keep BTC prices elevated for the rest of 2023.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up over 70% so far in 2023, helped by a banking crisis and hopes about a spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the United States.

*BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

So, will Bitcoin price continue to climb for the rest of 2023? Cointelegraph takes a look at its chances and possible BTC price targets.

2020 Bitcoin price fractal eyes $50K

Bitcoin’s ongoing market trend looks very similar to its price action during the 2017 to 2020 period. Therefore, it can repeat a key breakout moment (the greened area) for a decisive bull run, argues popular BTC analyst Stockmoney Lizards.

*BTC/USD price performance comparison between 2020 and 2023. Source: TradingView/Stockmoney Lizards*

The 2020 breakout preceded a Bitcoin bull run to its record high of $69,000 in November 2021. If a similar breakout occurs, the analyst sees BTC’s price climbing to the $45,000-$50,000 range by year’s end.

Unlike Bitcoin’s 2020 price rally, however, Bitcoin is currently facing headwinds from the United States Federal Reserve's tightening, resulting in lower liquidity in the market.

Bitcoin's price is down 40% since April 2022 when the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reached its peak.

Standard Chartered also sees Bitcoin at $50K

Standard Chartered also predicts Bitcoin will reach $50,000 by the year's end.

Geoff Kendrick, the global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered, argues that increased miners’ profitability will reduce their need to sell BTC, leading to a lower supply against potential rising demand.

“Increased miner profitability per BTC (Bitcoin) mined means they can sell less while maintaining cash inflows, reducing net BTC supply and pushing BTC prices higher,” Kendrick stated in a report.

Interestingly, the number of Bitcoin held by miners surged during the Ordinals hype in May 2023, stabilizing since.

*Bitcoin miner reserves in 2023. Source: CryptoQuant*

Bitcoin price technical pattern hints at $32,000

Meanwhile, one Bitcoin technical setup puts its year-end target near $32,000, also a recent price peak.

Notably, BTC has entered the breakout stage of its prevailing bump-and-run reversal (BARR) Bottom pattern. The BARR Bottom pattern typically resolves after the price breaks above its descending trendline resistance and rises by as much as the pattern’s maximum height, as shown below.

*BTC/USD daily price chart ft. BARR breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

The same BARR Bottom pattern played out accurately in Dogecoin’s case in June 2022. BTC price will be up another 12.75% by the end of 2023 if this pattern plays out as intended.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin miners need BTC price over $98K by the halving — Analysis

August 4, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin miners need BTC price over K by the halving — Analysis

Bitcoin Halving

To avoid being in the red, publicly-listed Bitcoin mining companies will need the BTC price to be at least $98,000 by the 2024 halving.

Predictions that Bitcoin (BTC) will see a six-figure price by the end of 2024 continue to surface despite the BTC price losing the $30,000 level recently.

For publicly-listed Bitcoin miners, in particular, a price north of $100,000 may be more of a necessity than a forecast if their business models are to remain profitable.

Bitcoin halving: Bad news for public miners?

Bitcoin mining stocks have been on a tear this year, outperforming BTC by a wide margin in recent months. While BTC has seen reduced volatility and a period of consolidation, Bitcoin mining companies’ stocks have risen by nearly 100% in a matter of months.

*Recent performance of popular BTC mining stocks. Source: Seeking Alpha*

A recent report by Seeking Alpha explores BTC mining by examining one popular miner in particular: Riot Platforms.

It notes that despite Riot being expected to triple its mining capacity in 2024, the company and Bitcoin miners, in general, could face serious headwinds from the halving . A 50% decrease in BTC block rewards cuts miners’ main source of revenue in half.

Miners like Riot can also issue new equity shares to fund their operations. This dilutes existing shares, meaning that even if the company’s underlying fundamentals are sustained, the share price may not keep up.

Combine this with the fact that many miners could already be overbought at current valuations, and things don’t look too rosy for public Bitcoin mining stocks. Although public mining stocks have outperformed Bitcoin in 2023, an increase in BTC being sent to exchanges could indicate a decline in momentum.

A big increase in Bitcoin’s price will therefore be required for miners to remain profitable at today’s hash rate levels.

Bitcoin miners have had a banger of a year.

RIOT is up 457%
MARA is up 421%
BITF is up 337%
CLSK is up 246%

Both Bitcoin and Nvidia rose by less than public miners this year — 80% and 222% respectively.

The best way to get leveraged/high-beta exposure to BTC.

h/t @zackvoell pic.twitter.com/xTsJqikh0L
— Joe Consorti ⚡ (@JoeConsorti) July 18, 2023

Miners might need six-figure Bitcoin to stay afloat

How high does the BTC price need to go for miners to maintain their current valuations? The report mentioned above concludes that nearly $100,000 could be required for miners to carry on as usual:

“Unless Bitcoin outperforms our Bitcoin thesis, we don’t see any way where the Bitcoin sector can come out unscathed. Even with RIOT’s ambitious 35 EH/s, our model suggests that Bitcoin needs to trade above $98,000 to justify RIOT’s current valuation (post-halving).”

Based on this, the report warns that “hodling” BTC mining stocks is “extremely risky,” as underlying fundamentals may not keep pace with current valuations that may not be pricing in next year’s Bitcoin halving yet.

BTC price to $125,000 in 2024?

Meanwhile, a recent report from Matrixport entitled “Matrix on Target: Prepare for the Soaring 2024 Year-End Bitcoin Target of $125,000” describes how BTC could reach $45,000 by year-end and $125,000 by the end of 2024.

The significance of Bitcoin price reaching a one-year high for the first time in a year is emphasized by the authors.

This signal has marked the beginning of a new bull market every time in the past:

“On June 22, 2023, Bitcoin made a new one-year high, marking the first time in a year. This signal has historically indicated the end of bear markets and the start of new crypto bull markets. Previous occurrences took place in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019, and August 2020, with the actual bull markets materialising in 2013, 2017, and 2021.”

It continues:

“This signal has been triggered four times and in all four cases, the bull market fully unfolded within 12-18 months. If history is any guide, then, there is now a 100% probability that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin will experience another massive bull market with a price target of $125,000 (+310%) - based on the previous three signals.”

This six-figure Bitcoin price prediction echoes numerous others . Standard Chartered, for example, forecasts a $120,000 Bitcoin price by the end of 2024. Interestingly, this is largely based on BTC miners not selling Bitcoin before the halving.

Bitcoin may reach $120,000 by the end of 2024, Standard Chartered forecasts, as an expected improvement in crypto miners' fortunes allows them to hold on to more of the tokens https://t.co/Z9z0BbKCqS
— Bloomberg Crypto (@crypto) July 11, 2023

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

bitcoin price prediction