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Bitcoin Emerges as a ‘Unique Diversifier,’ Says Blackrock’s Latest Report

Bitcoin Emerges as a ‘Unique Diversifier,’ Says Blackrock’s Latest ReportIn a recent report, Blackrock, the largest digital asset manager, explores bitcoin’s role as a unique investment diversifier, highlighting its distinct risk and return factors compared to traditional assets. The financial institution’s report also discusses bitcoin’s growing appeal among institutional investors. Blackrock Report Sees Bitcoin as a Key Asset for Long-Term Portfolio Diversification Blackrock, the […]

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BlackRock revises spot Bitcoin ETF to enable easier access for banks

BlackRock said the new ETF model offers "superior resistance” to market manipulation — something the SEC has long used as a reason to reject spot Bitcoin ETFs.

BlackRock has revised its spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) application to make it easier for Wall Street banks to participate by creating new shares in the fund with cash, rather than just crypto.

The new in-kind redemption “prepay” model, will allow banking giants such as JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs to act as authorized participants for the fund — allowing them to circumvent restrictions that prevent them from holding Bitcoin or crypto directly on their balance sheets.

The new model was presented by six members of BlackRock and three from NASDAQ in a Nov. 28 meeting with the United States Securities Exchange Commission.

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SEC’s first window to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs starts today

There’s an eight day window between Nov. 9 and Nov. 17 where all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings could be approved by the SEC, according to Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission could approve all 12 of the pending spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange traded fund (ETF) applications within the next eight days. 

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas wrote that starting from Nov. 9 the SEC has a “window” to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings — including Grayscale’s conversion of its GBTC trust product — in the days leading up to Nov. 17, but stressed this was only a possibility.

“Delay orders were issued by the SEC for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity & Valkyrie at the same time,” Seyffart wrote in a Nov. 8 post on X (formerly Twitter).

“If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch — as we believe — this is the first available window since Grayscale's court victory was affirmed.”

The reason for this brief window is that when the SEC extended the deadline for a number of the pending spot Bitcoin ETF filings, it selected Nov. 8 as the last day of the comment period.

From Nov. 17, the comment period for 3 filings, including Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF and Franklin Bitcoin ETF would recommence, meaning that they wouldn’t be approved or denied until after Nov. 23 at the earliest.

While the window for accepting all 12 filings ends on Nov. 17, Seyffart added that the SEC could technically make a decision on nine of the twelve applications anytime before Jan. 10.

Nine of the pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications could technically be approved anytime before Jan. 10. Source: James Seyffart

While the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is in no way guaranteed, both Seyffart and Balchunas predict a 90% chance of an approval sometime before Jan. 10 next year.

Grayscale in talks with SEC over GBTC conversion

While market pundits eagerly await the SEC’s decision, crypto asset manager Grayscale has reportedly initiated discussions with the regulator concerning its application to convert its trust product GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, according to a Nov. 9 report from CoinDesk.

According to sources familiar with the matter, Grayscale has been in contact with both the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets and the Division of Corporation Finance since winning its court battle with the regulator on Aug. 29.

As the perceived odds of a Bitcoin ETF being approved have increased, so too has optimism in the crypto market, with the price of Bitcoin gaining more than 30% in the last 3 months. Bitcoin’s outsized rally has buoyed price activity in other major assets as well.

Related: Spot Bitcoin ETF hype reignited zest for blockchain games: Yat Siu

In the past month, Solana (SOL) gained a staggering 93% amid scaling improvements, while Ripple (XRP) and Ether (ETH) grew 36% and 20% respectively.

While many within the industry are confident an approval will kickstart the next bull market, other analysts aren’t convinced that the rally has staying power.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

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Spot ETF-induced Bitcoin rally isn’t guaranteed to stick: Analysts

Investors will likely see Bitcoin surge even more when a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, but other factors are needed for the rally to sustain, warn analysts.

While the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) will likely spike the price of Bitcoin, some analysts are concerned it won’t be enough to fully thaw the markets from its winter chill. 

On Oct. 24 Bitcoin staged its largest single day rally in over a year, surging more than 14% on the news that the ticker of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF — IBTC — had been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website, something markets understood as a positive step forward for the funds’ application.

The surge turned out to be even stronger than that of oOct. 16, when Cointelegraph’s incorrect tweet that suggested a spot Bitcoin ETF had been approved.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, pseudonymous trader TheFlowHorse — who boasts 184,000 followers on X — said that the two market blips can be seen as a hint of Bitcoin’s price action should a spot Bitcoin ETF be approved.

Addressing the two developments and its impact on Bitcoin,Horse added that investors could expect to see a move of “the same, if not greater magnitude” if the ETF is approved.

The price of Bitcoin surged to north of $35k on Oct. 24. Source: TradingView

However, Horse notes that while approval will likely drive prices significantlyupward, it’s also likely it will be followed by an eventual retrace in the mid-term.

This is because, in Horses’ view, the trade will be crowded heavily by eager investors looking to chase the news.

“You're going to have a ton of crowding… and that's ultimately an inefficient move. The inefficient moves get refilled and retrace to some degree,” he added.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG international, told Cointelegraph that he expects to see Bitcoin continue to surge through new yearly highs on the day of the announcement, while Rachel Lucas, a technical analyst at Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, said the approval of BlackRock’s ETF will act as a catalyst for the rest of the traditional finance sector.

“This participation not only amplifies institutional capital inflows but also heightens retail curiosity, contributes to supply limitations, and underscores the deflationary aspect of Bitcoin.”

However, while Sycamore said there’s a chance the “rally could stick” — a full-scale trend reversal for Bitcoin seems unlikely given that interest rates remain considerably higher than they were when Bitcoin notched its previous all-time-high.

Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC markets also believes it would be worthwhile to adopt a more cautious stance, as there’s no guarantee of an all-out trend reversal.

“Bitcoin still lacks the fundamentals to support a quantitative valuation like shares and does not have the scope of utilization like commodities. Approval by the SEC can not change the nature of it being a speculative asset.”

“Macro changes will have a major impact on the crypto markets, which usually start building an upside trend during a Fed rate cut cycle,” Teng concluded.

Related: Grayscale files for new spot Bitcoin ETF on NYSE Arca

The certainty and timing of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is still up for debate. While unlikely, ETF analysts said that SEC Chair Gary Gensler could be waiting until the very last minute to pull off an “amazingly sadistic” denial of the impending applications.

While analysts from JP Morgan claimed in an Oct. 17 investment note that an approval could arrive within the next few months, the general consensus — held by Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas — peg the chances of an approval by Jan. 10 next year at 90%.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

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No, ARK 21 Shares spot Bitcoin ETF is not listed on DTCC website

Unfortunately for those watching closely for new spot Bitcoin ETF filings, ARK Invest and 21 Shares’ joint spot Bitcoin ETF has not been listed.

Despite swirling rumors on social media, ARK Invest’s spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) does not appear to be listed on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation’s (DTCC) website.

On Oct. 25, numerous high-profile crypto accounts on X (Twitter) including Mike Alfred, Bitcoin News, Simply Bitcoin, Crypto News Alerts and others posted tweets and screenshots claiming ARK Invest and 21 Shares’ joint spot Bitcoin ETF had been listed on the DTCC’s site.

However, none of the screenshots showed the correct ticker for the spot Bitcoin ETF, instead showing tickers related to futures products.

The most recent amended filing for Ark’s spot Bitcoin ETF from Oct. 11 shows that the fund will trade using the ticker “ARKB.”

As of Oct. 25, the section of the DTCC website showing all current ETF listings shows no listing under the ticker of ARKB.

The current list of ARK ETF products on the DTCC ETF list. Source: DTCC

The ticker “ARKA” refers to the ARK 21Shares Active Bitcoin Futures ETF, which according to the most recent filing on Aug. 11, is a yet-to-be-approved fund that will offer investors exposure to Bitcoin futures contracts.

The tickers ARKY and ARKZ respectively refer to the ARK 21Shares Active Ethereum Futures ETF and the ARK 21Shares Active Bitcoin Ethereum Strategy ETF — both are still proposed products pending approval with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

It’s beginning to look like the iShares listing news was overhyped too.

While the crypto market soared on the news that BlackRock’s iShares spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) had been listed on the DTCC’s site, a DTCC spokesperson recently revealed that IBTC had been listed on the website since August.

The spokesperson said it’s standard practice for the DTCC to add securities to the NSCC security eligibility file “in preparation for the launch of a new ETF to the market."

Related: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF mysteriously disappears — then reappears — on DTCC site

“Appearing on the list is not indicative of an outcome for any outstanding regulatory or other approval processes,” the spokesperson added.

Traders noticing BlackRock’s spot ETF listing on the DTCC website coincided with a 14% single-day rally for Bitcoin, which briefly broke $35,000 for the first time in nearly two years.

Around the same time as the rumors of an ARK listing first began to surface, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote that ARK Invest had filed a fourth amendment to its spot Bitcoin ETF application, which seemed to be largely cosmetic changes to the filling.

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Mysterious Bitcoin wallet becomes 3rd largest BTC holder in 3 months

An unknown wallet has accrued more than $3 billion worth of Bitcoin in the last three months, sparking a wave of theories about the potential owner.

A mysterious Bitcoin wallet has surged up the ranks to become the third-largest holder of Bitcoin (BTC) in the world in just over three months, with the timing sparking some wild theories about its owner.

According to data from crypto statistics platform BitInfoCharts, the wallet address first received Bitcoin on March 8. Over the course of the next three months and two weeks, the wallet had accrued a staggering 118,000 BTC — worth $3.08 billion at current prices.

The mysterious wallet has accrued 118,000 BTC in less than four months. Source: BitInfoCharts

The rapid and significant accrual of Bitcoin within a single wallet address has attracted its fair share of conjecture.

Some users suggest it’s most likely a crypto exchange moving funds, while some more radical members of Crypto Twitter have posted a more wild theory — suggesting BlackRock is the “prime suspect."

The theory is not based on any solid evidence, however, others have shared their support it by posting pictures of a large black rock.

The current largest Bitcoin wallets in the world, according to BitInfoCharts, are reportedly owned by Binance and Bitfinex — as Bitcoin cold wallets.

The unknown Bitcoin whale wallet comes in third place, and is then followed by another Binance cold wallet in fourth place.

Related: First EU spot Bitcoin ETF hits Euronext Amsterdam exchange

BlackRock made waves in the crypto market on June 15 when it filed an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF product which — if accepted by the Securities and Exchange Commission — will be the first of its kind in the United States.

BlackRock’s application sparked a wave of filings for similar spot products from a horde of other Wall Street heavyweights, including Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree and Valkyrie.

The prospect of a spot Bitcoin ETF whipped crypto analysts into a frenzy, sharing their bullish predictions for the price of Bitcoin — with Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee suggesting that Bitcoin could reach a price of $150,000 per coin following the halving event in April 2024.

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Bitcoin price will surge past $150K if spot ETFs are approved: Analyst

Even if the filings for Bitcoin spot ETFs are rejected, Lee predicts Bitcoin’s halving event will still push up BTC's price — but not to six figures.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) will surge past an eye-watering $150,000 by the end of 2024, as long as the current slew of United States spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are approved, according to investment research boutique Fundstrat.

In an Aug. 16 interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Fundstrat’s managing partner and head of research Tom Lee predicted that a bundle of successful Bitcoin spot ETF applications will shift Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics towards considerable price appreciation.

When asked what the price of Bitcoin could be by the end of next year, Lee didn’t hold back:

“If the spot Bitcoin (ETF) gets approved, I think the demand will be greater than the daily supply of Bitcoin, so the clearing price [...] is over $150,000, it could even be like $180,000.”

Lee clarified that this could be the case so long as it is a United States-approved spot Bitcoin ETF, as there are already spot Bitcoin ETFs in Europe. 

The United States currently makes up 97.7% of the global trading volume for crypto-related ETFs, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Once spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved, this could go to 99.5%, he said. 

However, even if the spot ETF applications are rejected, Lee still predicts a considerable price push to come from Bitcoin’s next halving event, expected to take place in April 2024.

“You will have a drop in supply again, so the clearing price has to increase. But it won’t be six figures.”

In June, Wall Street heavyweights Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree and Valkyrie followed the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock in applying for a Bitcoin spot ETF with the SEC.

However, some of these firms may not learn their fate until sometime in 2024 as the SEC has up to 240 days to make a final decision on an application after commencing the review process.

The outcome of Grayscale’s appeal to convert its GBTC trust product into a Bitcoin spot ETF is however expected to come sooner rather than later.

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart recently estimated that there’s a 65% chance of these Bitcoin spot ETFs being approved by the securities regulator — a significant increase from before BlackRock’s application.

Related: $160K at next halving? Model counts down to new Bitcoin all-time high

Other have tipped that a $100,000 Bitcoin price could come much sooner than expected, with Blockstream CEO Adam Back recently wagering that Bitcoin will notch the new price milestone the month before the halving event.

However, not everyone is inclined to agree. Jesse Myer, the co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, explained on Aug. 15 that the market would only price in the changed reality 12-18 months post-halving.

“Bitcoin won’t surge to $100k before the next halving,” he said.

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BlackRock lauds AI as ‘mega force’ to drive returns

AI could prove to be a boon for investors looking for gains in today's “unusual” market.

Global investment titan BlackRock, which manages some $10 trillion in assets, has declared artificial intelligence a “mega force” that could create significant returns for investors in today’s “unusual” market.

In its mid-year outlook report, the BlackRock Investment Institute detailed their thesis for increased investment in AI — pointing to multiple “disruptive” themes that could see the sector grow rapidly over the coming years.

S&P market cap vs relative performance from 1990. Source: BlackRock.

The report drew special attention to the fact that gains in the S&P 500 — the index that tracks the 500 largest companies in the United States — have become increasingly concentrated in a handful of tech stocks. The firm says investment in AI is a good way to capitalize on this concentration.

"We think this unusual equity market shows a mega force like AI can be a big driver of returns even when the macro environment is not your friend."

To BlackRock’s investment team, the most obvious “benefit” of AI lies in automation. While they admitted white-collar jobs are at an “increased risk” of being automated away, it said the resulting cost savings could significantly boost profit margins, especially for companies with high staff costs and an abundance of easily-automated tasks.

The team added that the nascent tech could prove to be a boon for companies that are currently sitting on a “gold mine” of proprietary data — with AI-powered tools allowing firms to leverage dormant information into “innovative” new models.

The report also listed the global push towards low-carbon economies, aging populations, and a rapidly-evolving financial system as key drivers of growth in the coming decade.

BlackRock isn’t alone in giving more airtime to AI. In a June 28 tweet, Matt Huang, the CEO of crypto investment firm Paradigm, said the rapid and varying developments in field of AI are simply “too interesting to ignore."

Still, not all commentators are convinced by a bullish AI investment thesis.

Related: Google says its next AI ‘Gemini’ will be more powerful than ChatGPT

Macro-finance commentator @Financelot told his 90,000 followers on Twitter that the AI boom — which has seen shares in GPU-manufacturer Nvidia skyrocket by more than 180% in six months — is actually being fueled largely by demand for specific AI-focused computing chips.

In his view, once the U.S. implements export restrictions on these chips, the share prices of AI-related companies will falter.

While there’s bullishness for AI, recent weeks has seen the investment giant has turn its gaze to Bitcoin. On June 15 the firm submitted an application to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).

If the application is successful, it will be the first spot Bitcoin trust product to be approved by the regulator. Senior investment analysts from bloomberg have pinned Blackrock’s chance of an approval at 50%.

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BlackRock has ‘50% chance’ of getting spot Bitcoin ETF approved: Analyst

Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst believes BlackRock has an even chance of getting its Bitcoin ETF green-lit, as Grayscale looks more likely to win its case against the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Investment management firm BlackRock has a 50% chance of getting its spot Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approved, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. 

Balchunas’ prediction comes following an observation made by Elliott Stein, a senior litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, who now pegs the chances of Grayscale winning its case against the SEC at 70%.

Balchunas explained that the SEC may look more favorably upon BlackRock's ETF filing as a way to “save face” by allowing an ETF from a “trusted 'adult' TradFi” firm instead of Grayscale.

Ever since Grayscale appealed the United States Securities Exchange Commission’s decision to reject its application in June 2022, the two parties have engaged in back and forth legal filings in addition to oral testimony heard by three U.S. federal appellate court judges on March 7.

“Grayscale has a 70% chance of winning its lawsuit against the SEC over the company’s bid to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to a Bitcoin ETF, we believe.”

Stein added that Grayscale’s odds increased from 40% after the parties’ oral arguments reached completion because “all three judges on the panel appeared to side with Grayscale,” based on their “lines of questioning,” Stein said.

Stein said Bloomberg expects a conclusion will be made by August.

Applications for Bitcoin ETFs have been a central focus point for the industry of late, with Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree and Valkyrie following $10 trillion asset management firm BlackRock in line for the SEC’s approval.

If the SEC eventually approves the applications from the likes of JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon and Bank of America looking to offer similar services, the digital asset market would be exposed to firms with a combined $27 trillion in assets under management.

Related: Firms managing $27T in assets are embracing crypto: CoinShares CSO

While the decision of Grayscale’s case awaits, GBTC has surged over 134% in 2023 to $19.47, which marks its highest price since about May 13, 2022, according to Google Finance.

Additionally, the discount of GBTC’s share price when compared to its overall net-asset-value dropped to 31% on June 26, the lowest level recorded since Sept. 12 last year, according to data from YCharts. A lower discount rate on the trust means that investors sentiment towards the product may be turning more positive.

GBTC Discount to Net Asset Value (NAV). Source: Ycharts.

However, like much of the crypto market, GBTC is down over 65% from its all-time high price of $56.70.

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Bitcoin price surge will come from retail, not institutions: Fireblocks CEO

Michael Shaulov believes that while recent Bitcoin ETF filings could see new institutional money flow to Bitcoin, that in itself didn't drive previous price surges.

While an approved BlackRock spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) will funnel new institutional money to Bitcoin, it's going to be the retail investors that ultimately drive any significant price surges, according to Michael Shaulov, the CEO and co-founder of institutional custody platform Fireblocks.

On June 15, investment colossus BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF, leading to other financial firms filing their own, along with Bitcoin's price reaching its highest levels in a year.

However, while many are hopeful that institutional involvement in crypto will further rocket prices, Shaulov notes that may not necessarily happen.

"When institutions come in to participate in the market and they're doing it in a quiet way, they're able to do it almost without moving the price," Shaulov told Cointelegraph during the Australian Blockchain Week.

Michael Shaulov speaking to Cointelegraph Editor Felix Ng at Australian Blockchain Week. 

According to Shaulov, mid-2020 was another time that saw "massive inflows" of institutional money, but prices didn’t really appreciate until retail investors frenzied over crypto assets later in the year.

“Even though there were massive inflows, those institutions were sophisticated enough to acquire [BTC] slowly and use algorithms that won’t drive up the market."

Instead, “50% increases [came] from retail […] because they’re participating in a way that’s less sophisticated and moves the price dramatically," he explained.

That being said, Shaulov noted that the “physics of Bitcoin” — mainly its finite supply — means that any mass buy-up of Bitcoin should end up moving the needle.

“It’ll definitely be easier for some institutions that are currently not participating in the market to add Bitcoin to their allocation.”

Why Bitcoin?

Interestingly, Shaulov — who founded Fireblocks in 2018, believes that the narrative over Bitcoin is still "playing out" for these institutions.

Shaulov said that today, there are numerous Bitcoin-based narratives still at play: Is it a hedge against inflation? Is it a public reserve currency? Is that a hedge against government financial misdealings?

Shaulov said that personally, he believes Bitcoin is the “ultimate insurance asset.”

Related: Fireblocks VP: Big names won’t go back after discovering crypto payments’ potential

“It has all it has the properties [of something] for when everything gets worse. It is an asset that is disconnected from the government. It's an asset that can be digitally native, it's an asset that can be moved easily.”

“It doesn't matter if at one point it’s worth $15,000, $20,000 or $60,000. You just need to have enough of it in that variance, in order to survive a period,” he said.

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