Bitcoin price holds $23.5K, leading bulls to say ‘it’s different this time’

July 19, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price holds .5K, leading bulls to say ‘it’s different this time’

Traders expect BTC price to venture into the $27,000 to $32,000 range now that Bitcoin looks to secure a daily close above its current range.

Similar to Stockholm syndrome where captives develop a psychological bond with their captors, crypto winters have a way of flipping even the most bullish cryptocurrency supporters bearish in a short period of time.

Evidence of this reality was on full display on July 19 after the recovery of Bitcoin (BTC) back above $23,000 was met with widespread warnings that the move was merely a fakeout before the market heads for new lows

$BTC

Not bad. But keep in mind that this still can turn into a classical fake out.

My general thesis still remains, bear market rally pic.twitter.com/VxnH4mo6hW
— Jimie (@Your_NLP_Coach) July 19, 2022

While the possibility of new lows being set in the future can’t be ruled out, here’s a look at analysts' opinions on how this BTC breakout could be different than most investors expect.

This time "it's different"

The pointed message of “this time is different” was offered by pseudonymous Twitter user Trader XM, who posted the following chart outlining why BTC is poised to head higher.

As highlighted on the chart above, BTC price did not retest of the range low even as four retests of the range high took place, and this suggests that buyers are now stronger than sellers.

In response to the post from Trader XM, Twitter user Justiinape replied “$27K-$28K seems imminent.”

Trader XM said,

“Agree my man, move to $27-28K then months of consolidation. Let's enjoy this move before the long hibernation.”

The next major resistance is at $27,100

Further evidence that BTC could head higher was supplied by the on-chain data firm Whalemap, which posted the following chart highlighting the lack of buying demand between $23,000 and $27,000.

*Bitcoin volume profile. Source: Twitter*

Whalemap said,

“$27,100 should be the first resistance on our way up. Big gap in supply between current prices and $27K.”

Shorts get REKT

Proof that crypto traders had been lulled into an overly bearish outlook was provided by cryptocurrency analyst Dylan LeClair, who posted the following chart showing the effect that Bitcoin’s move above $23,000 had on the futures traders.

As highlighted on the chart, there was a large amount of Bitcoin short positions opened between June 15 and July 15 and these traders now find themselves on the losing side of the trade.

LeClair said,

“Tens of thousands worth of BTC short open interest currently underwater.”

While Bitcoin reversing course and heading lower once again remains a possibility, the current momentum suggests further upside in the short term.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.055 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.1%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price moves toward $24K and traders expect further upside, after a support retest

July 19, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

BTC price is racing toward $24,000, but analysts warn that a lower support retest is needed to confirm the strength of the current breakout.

Crypto fans are rejoicing at the sight of green across the market on July 19 as the months of “down only” price action have finally come to an end after the market flashed its first substantial relief rally in at least a month.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that much of the newfound excitement is the result of Bitcoin (BTC) breaking above resistance at $23,000 to hit a daily high of $23,447, its first meaningful move above the 200-week moving average.

*BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

While many have been quick predict a climb to the mid-$30,000 range, a few analysts caution that it could be another fakeout pump. Let's take a look at traders' perspectives on Bitcoin's move toward $33,000.

Bitcoin needs a weekly candle close above $22,800

The move back above the 200-week MA has been a point of focus for cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart commenting that “For the first time in weeks, BTC is putting in a decent effort to try to reclaim the 200-week MA as support.”

The 200-week MA has been a highly watched metric in recent weeks because it has served as a reliable bear market indicator that has historically provided insight into when a bottom has been set.

Rekt Capital said,

“#BTC needs to Weekly Candle Close above $22800 to successfully confirm a reclaim of the 200-week MA as support.”

There's still room for a pullback to $18,000

Further insight into what would need to happen to confirm a bullish perspective on the gains seen on July 19 was offered by Phoneix ICF, who provided the following chart highlighting the next major level of resistance to keep an eye on.

Phoenix ICF said,

“Wait for the 1d candle to close above $23K and then place long bets. If that’s not the case, we’ll see it below $18K soon. Be patient & avoid emotional trading.”

Traders expect resistance at $28,400

The importance of the current price level was further explored by technical analyst Crypto Patel, who posted the following chart outlining the possible paths that BTC could take in the event of a sharp directional move from the current supply zone found between $21,700 and $22,800.

Crypto Patel said,

“Scenario 1:- If Break $22,900 Level then Ready for Long with $28,400 TP [take profit]. Scenario 2:- But If failed to hold $$22,800 then High Possibility to test $12K Level.”

Based on the current Bitcoin price, the chart above predicts a possible run-up to the resistance area near $28,400, followed by a consolidation or pullback before BTC attempts to take out the resistance found at $32,300.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.062 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.1%.

Data points to a Bitcoin bottom, but one metric warns of a final drop to $14K

July 18, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Data points to a Bitcoin bottom, but one metric warns of a final drop to K

Bitcoin Price

The bear market is far from over, but according to Glassnode, several metrics suggest that Bitcoin capitulation already occurred.

“When will it end?” is the question that is on the mind of investors who have endured the current crypto winter and witnessed the demise of multiple protocols and investment funds over the past few months.

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) once again finds itself testing resistance at its 200-week moving average and the real challenge is whether it can push higher in the face of multiple headwinds or if the price will trend down back into the range it has been trapped in since early June.

According to the most recent newsletter from on-chain market intelligence firm Glassnode, "duration" is the main difference between the current bear market and previous cycles and many on-chain metrics are now comparable to these historical drawdowns.

One metric that has proven to be a reliable indicator of bear market bottoms is realized price, which is the value of all Bitcoin at the price they were bought divided by the number of BTC in circulation.

*Number of days Bitcoin price traded below the realized price. Source: Glassnode*

As shown on the chart above, with the exception of the flash crash in March 2020, Bitcoin has traded below its realized price for an extended period of time during bear markets.

Glassnode said,

“The average time spent below the Realized Price is 197-days, compared to the current market with just 35-days on the clock.”

This would suggest that the current calls for an end of the crypto winter are premature because historical data suggests the market still has several months of sideways price action to go before the next major uptrend.

Will the bottom be closer to $14,000?

When it comes to what traders should be on the lookout for that would signify an end to the winter, Glassnode highlighted the Delta price and Balance price as “on-chain pricing models which tend to attract spot prices during late stage bears.”

*Bitcoin realized, balances and delta prices. Source: Glassnode*

As shown on the chart above, the previous major bear market lows were set after a “short-term wick down to the Delta price,” which is highlighted in green. A similar move in today’s market would suggest a BTC low near $14,215.

These bearish periods also saw the BTC price trade in an accumulation range “between the Balanced Price (range low) and the Realized Price (range high),” which is where the price currently finds itself.

One of the classic signs that a bear market is coming to an end has been a major capitulation event that exhausted the last remaining sellers.

While some are still debating whether or not this has occurred, Glassnode highlighted the on-chain activity during the June plunge to $17,600 as a possible sign that capitulation has indeed taken place.

*Bitcoin total supply in loss. Source: Glassnode*

At the time that BTC fell to $17,600, there was a total volume of 9.216 million BTC holding an unrealized loss. Following the capitullation event on June 18, a month of consolidation and a price rally to $21,200, this volume has now declined to 7.68 million BTC.

Glassnode said,

“What this suggests is that 1.539M BTC were last transacted (have a cost-basis) between $17.6k and $21.2k. This indicates that around 8% of the circulating supply has changed hands in this price range.”

Further evidence of capitulation having already taken place was the “staggering volume of BTC” that locked in a realized loss between May and July.

*Bitcoin 30-day sum realized losses. Source: Glassnode*

The collapse of Terra triggered a total realized loss of $27.77 billion while the June 18 plunge below the 2017 cycle all-time high resulted in a total realized loss of $35.5 billion.

Is this the end of the bear market?

One final metric that suggests capitulation has already occurred is the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSPOR), which compares the value of outputs at the time they are spent to when they were created.

*Bitcoin adjusted SPOR. Source: Glassnode*

According to Glassnode, when profitability is declining (as represented by the blue arrows), investors being to realize large losses which eventually leads to “a final waterfall moment of capitulation,” which is highlighted in red.

Glassnode said,

“The market eventually reaches seller exhaustion, prices start to recover, and investor pain starts to subside.”

In order to verify that capitulation has indeed taken place and accumulation is underway, Glassnode indicated that the aSOPR value would ideally need to recover back above 1.0.

Total crypto market cap reclaims $1 trillion as Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins breakout

July 18, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Total crypto market cap reclaims trillion as Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins breakout

Bitcoin Price

The crypto market capitalization pushed above $1 trillion after notable weekly double-digit gains from BTC, ETH and several large cap altcoins.

Crypto traders found cause for celebration on July 18 as the total market capitalization climbed back above the $1 trillion mark following weeks of widespread selling after Bitcoin (BTC) price swept yearly lows below $18,000.

The green day for cryptocurrencies largely tracks a positive day in the traditional markets, which are up modestly despite analyst estimates that the Federal Reserve intends to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 27.

*Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source:* *Coin360*

While traders will welcome July 18's positive price action, many analysts caution that the upswing is nothing more than a bear market pump. Let's take a look at the current top performers.

Bitcoin holds a 16% gain

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that over the past week, Bitcoin has rallied significantly and at the time of writing BTC holds a 16% weekly gain from its recent low at $18,907.

The top cryptocurrency now finds itself running square into the resistance found at its 200-week moving average, which also happens to be the upper bound of the trading range BTC has been trapped in since the middle of June.

This level has proven to be a tough nut to crack over the past five weeks as multiple attempts to break above it have been met with rejection. It remains to be seen if Bitcoin will manage to break free of this level and move higher or spend longer trading between $19,000 and $22,000.

$BTC battling that 200 Week MA again. Rejected 3 times in the last 5 weeks here.

Decision time imo.

We either have a fat breakout or fat breakdown. $ETH has been leading the market so far, along with many other altcoins. Breakouts occurring everywhere.

Can $BTC follow suit? pic.twitter.com/6Cz49po8CH
— Taner ⚡️ (@Taner_Crypto) July 18, 2022

Ethereum Merge surge presents a 43% rally

Ethereum (ETH) has also experienced a boost in momentum and price over the past week, climbing 43% from a low of $1,005 on July 13 to a daily high at $1,530 on July 18, reaching its highest price since June 12.

*ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

Ether has been showing increased momentum since the successful July 6 completion of the Merge on the Sepolia testnet. A further boost to its price was provided on July 15 when it was announced that the mainnet Merge is predicted to take place on September 19.

While the September 19 date is still tentative and should be considered as a roadmap projection and not a hard deadline, the prospect of the Merge finally taking place after years of preparation is exciting the community and possibly driving demand for Ether.

MATIC keeps moving

On the altcoin front, Polygon (MATIC) continues to lead the pack higher following a week of several major announcements including being selected to participate in Disney’s 2022 Accelerator Program, gaining 32.4% over the past 24 hours and trading near resistance at $0.94.

*MATIC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

Other notable gainers on the 24-hour chart include a 19.6% gain for STEPN (GMT), an 18.9% gain for Theta Fuel (TFUEL), and a 17.6% increase for Convex Finance (CVX).

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.019 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.6%.

3 reasons why Bitcoin is struggling to flip $20K to support

July 13, 2022 Coin Telegraph

3 reasons why Bitcoin is struggling to flip K to support

Binance

BTC continues to sell-off, but analysts say investor sentiment could reverse when inflation peaks or traders feel that the situation with insolvent DeFi platforms is resolved.

The positive gains recorded in the first ten days of July have all but disappeared on July 13 as Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider market slid back toward new yearly lows.

Subdued action in the market can be traced back to a variety of factors ranging today's record-high Consumer Price Index print and a raging US dollar that recently hit its highest level since October 2002.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that July 13 marked the fifth consecutive day of a declining BTC price, which hit an intra-day low at $18,910, following the declines across the major stock market indices.

As the world awaits a catalyst that can bring positive momentum back into global financial markets, here is what several analysts have to say about what's next for Bitcoin.

Was Bitcoin's latest surge the result of wash trading?

Bitcoin's gains over the past week had sparked a new wave of optimism for some traders, but that optimism is likely to fade in the near term. Data from Arcane Research shows that a majority of the momentum came from the removal of trading fees for certain Bitcoin pairs on Binance cryptocurrency exchange.

*Real Bitcoin daily volume (7-day average). Source: Arcane Research*

According to Arcane Research, after the fee was removed, trading volumes on the exchange surged and it can be most likely attributed to “wash trading from traders seeking to exploit the fee removal to reach higher fee tiers.”

When looking at the crypto exchange ecosystem as a whole, however, activity remains subdued which is indicative of diminished interest in buying cryptos at the present moment.

Arcane Research said,

“All other exchanges saw muted trading volume last week, with the seven-day average trading volume sitting near 1-year lows, illustrating that the organic trading activity in the market is very muted at the moment.”

Extreme fear persists

Further evidence highlighting the lack of interest in buying Bitcoin can be found from the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which is currently experiencing a “record-long 68-day streak” in the extremely fearfully territory.

*Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative*

As noted by Arcane Research, the spike to a score of 24 on July 10 was largely influenced by Binance’s decision to remove trading fees, which “led the metric to overstate the current market sentiment fearfulness.”

After the novelty of fee-less Bitcoin trading on the top exchange subsided and volumes returned to normal, the Fear and Greed index has descended back into the extreme fear zone.

Exchange outflows provide further evidence of the state of the market. Following the liquidation of Three Arrows Capital and the freezing of funds at platforms like Celsius, the rate that users have been pulling BTC off exchanges hit its highest level ever on June 26.

Since the start of 2020, BTC outflows from exchanges have far outpaced BTC inflows, with a sharp increase between June & July 2022.

On June 26th, we saw the largest outflow of BTC, with 153k BTC (worth approximately $3.2 billion) scurrying for an exit from centralized exchanges. pic.twitter.com/FQp2E2YkSw
— Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) July 12, 2022

Leveraged liquidity increases above $25,000

A final bit of insight into the factors keeping Bitcoin in its current trading range was offered by researchers at Jarvis Labs, who provided the following chart showing the dark bands of liquidity that exist below $18,000 and above $25,000.

*Bitcoin liquidation map. Source: Jarvis Labs*

According to Jarvis Labs, the appearance of highly leveraged liquidity signaled the possibility that BTC could make a run for $25,000 barring any unforeseen negative developments.

Jarvis Labs said,

“The caveat here is that for price to threaten that level, no more skeletons can get exposed within the cryptocurrency market, otherwise more forced selling can be triggered.”

While it remains to be seen which way the price of BTC will move, the one thing that traders should prepare themselves for is the potential for increased volatility in the months ahead as rising global tensions, surging inflation and widespread pessimism suggest that the crypto market and world at large may be in for an extended bear market.

Analysts say Bitcoin range ‘consolidation’ is most likely until a ‘macro catalyst’ emerges

July 11, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

BTC on-chain metrics and technical indicators are trading near historical bottoms, but analysts say a new “macro catalyst” could prove the current range is not the bottom.

From a historical perspective, the loss in value realized across the cryptocurrency market over the past several months has been one for the record books and the total cryptocurrency market cap has declined from $3 trillion to $991 million.

June was especially painful for investors after the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell nearly 40% to mark one of its worst calendar months on record according to a recent report from cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital.

*BTC/USD monthly candles vs. MoM% change. Source: Delphi Digital*

In light of the strong market correction, a number of BTC price and on-chain metrics have begun to reach levels similar to those seen during previous market bottoms, but this doesn’t mean traders should expect a turnaround anytime soon because history shows that periods of weakness can drag on for months on end.

Macro headwinds weigh on BTC price

One of the most significant factors weighing on cryptocurrencies and other risk assets has been the strength of the United States Dollar.

*DXY index YoY% change vs. BTC/USD price YoY% change. Source: Delphi Digital*

Combined with rising inflation and falling economic indicators, DXY strength is a signal that an economic slowdown is all but inevitable, with forecasts now predicting a recession in early to mid-2023.

Against this backdrop, BTC now finds itself attempting to form a local bottom around the 2017 cycle high near $20,000, “the last clear structural support on the high timeframe bitcoin chart.”

*BTC/USD price-performance 1-week chart. Source: Delphi Digital*

This current cycle marks the first time in Bitcoin’s history that its price has fallen below the all-time high set during a previous bull market cycle. Should BTC fail to hold support near $20,000, Delphi Digital pointed to an expected “support around ~$15K, and then ~$9K to $12K if that level failed to hold.”

While those estimates may seem bleak, it should be noted that BTC price fell roughly 85% from peak to trough during each of the previous two major bear markets.

If the same were to occur during the current bear market cycle, that would put BTC at $10,000, marking another 50% drawdown from the current levels and falling in line with the 2018 to 2019 price range.

For this reason, analysts at Delphi Digital believe that “there’s still more pain ahead for risk assets.”

Where is the bottom?

The percentage of Bitcoin supply held in profit and Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio are nearing levels seen during previous bear markets, but each has “a bit more room to go” before they reach their lows for this cycle according to Delphi Digital.

*BTC/USD price vs. realized P/L ratio. Source: Delphi Digital*

According to the firm, “momentum indicators and valuation metrics can remain oversold or undervalued for an extended period of time,” which makes them “poor timing tools” that are not capable of predicting immediate reversals.

Contrarian investors might also want to keep an eye on the market sentiment as well as the Fear and Greed Index which has now reached historic lows.

*BTC/USD price vs. Fear and Greed Index. Source: Delphi Digital*

When it comes to a potential move to the upside, Delphi Digital indicated that “BTC has room above due to the previous liquidation cascade in the wake of 3AC,” and identified the next major resistance level as $28,000.

Delphi Digital said,

“BTC will likely continue to consolidate until we get some kind of macro catalyst.”

Bitcoin price surges to $21.8K, but analysts warn that the move could be a fakeout

July 8, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

Traders rejoice after BTC price spikes 7% to $21,800, but analysts say the macro downtrend is likely to prevail for the foreseeable future.

Hope springs eternal for many crypto investors after the market saw positive price movement on July 7, alongside gains in the traditional market.

The green day in the markets comes amid a backdrop of increasing jobless claims in the U.S., which is a possible signal that “the pressure on wages may have now peaked” according to Harris Financial Group Managing Partner Jamie Cox. According to Cox, a continuation of this trend could result in financial conditions that are “tight enough to allow the Fed to throttle back on the scale of rate increases."

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after trading near $20,400 for a majority of the day on July 7, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) spiked nearly 7% in the afternoon hours to hit a daily high of $21,860.

As the crypto faithful attempt to navigate the choppy waters of the crypto winter in search of a market bottom, here’s what several analysts are predicting could be next for Bitcoin.

The trend remains negative

Twitter user "Roman" posted the following chart noting that “Many are becoming euphoric and bullish as we have repeated similar candle patterns for the last 8 months.”

In Roman’s view, this is just the latest in a series of fakeouts that will trick a lot of traders into believing the bottom is in while in reality, the trend remains negative.

Roman said,

“Volume decreasing in a range is consolidation for continuation of trend. Not to mention thousands of inflows to exchanges before each top.”

A recovery above $23,000 would be bullish

Another trader who holds the view that the trend remains decidedly negative is pseudonymous Twitter user Gilberto, who provided the following chart noting that Bitcoin’s price recently broke out of a pennant formation.

Gilberto said,

“Bullish above $23K, for now daily trend is still downwards.”

As for what the potential price path for Bitcoin could look like if it continues along the downward trend, market analyst Crypto Tony posted the following chart which outlines a “worst-case scenario” that could see BTC bottom near $12,000.

Crypto Tony said,

“I do not think we see the start of the next impulse until later next year and a new bull run peak until 2024 - 2025. I am already positioned at $22-24K and will add if we drop to $17 - 15K.”

Traders watch the 200-week moving average

When it comes to metrics that have been reliably used to help determine market bottoms, the 200-week moving average (MA) is one of the most popular and widely cited indicators that traders use to identify good buying opportunities.

With Bitcoin now back below its 200-week MA for only the fourth time in its history, speculation has begun to mount about how long it will take to recover back above this line and what the appetite for trading will be like once it reaches there.

In response to this possible scenario, independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe posted the following tweet outlining what he thinks might occur once the 200-week MA is recovered.

There's probably an insane amount of liquidity above the 200-Week MA.

If #Bitcoin breaks that level, I'm assuming we'll probably be getting a run of $2-5K upwards in just a few days to $28-30K.

And then the sentiment will flip too.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 7, 2022

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $957 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 43.1%.

Survey shows 55% of crypto investors chose to HODL as Bitcoin and altcoin prices collapsed

July 7, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Assets

Retail investors have been wary of buying the current BTC dip, but survey data shows that 55% of those already invested in crypto chose to HODL during the most recent volatility.

Crypto and equities markets are down and aside from the positive news of Celsius repaying all of their debt and avoiding a massive liquidation, there are few on the spot reasons that are prompting investors to buy Bitcoin and altcoins.

The collapse of numerous decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, crypto investment funds and BTC trading 60% below its all-time high continue to weigh on sentiment but a few positive tidbits of data could be a sign that the market is ready to enter a consolidation phase.

expect people will shift from a comatose state of fear to the realization that tens of billions of $ in forced spot selling (LFG, 3AC, lenders, miners) were a capitulation/risk transfer rivaled only by the Covid crash https://t.co/vAj7HfTKxf
— light (@lightcrypto) July 7, 2022

Crypto investors HODL

According to a recent survey conducted by Appinio, despite the collapse in crypto prices and start of the bear market, “more than half (55%) of crypto investors held their investments in response to the recent crypto-asset market sell-off with just 8% selling their investments.”

This suggests that the the investment conviction of a majority of crypto investors remains strong. The study also found that “33% of American investors are invested in crypto-assets,” an “40% of investors believe Bitcoin presents the best investment opportunity over the next three months.”

American investors show resiliency

When it comes to how American investors responded to the broad pullback across financial markets, Appinio found that 65% of respondents held their investments and remain confident in their choices.

When asked to pinpoint their most pressing short-term concerns, 66% of respondents cited rising inflation, 39% highlighted the state of the global economy and 34% identified international conflict.

According to Callie Cox, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, these concerns combined with ongoing uncertainty “and an overall increase in cost of living and housing costs” have formed “a perfect storm of setbacks” for investors.

Cox said,

“Despite these factors, investors across generations are demonstrating a level of maturity and understanding and are not letting emotions dictate important money decisions.”

Bitcoin enters oversold territory

In addition to the resiliency displayed by crypto investors, several on-chain metrics also suggest that the market may have hit oversold territory and is primed for a period of consolidation.

The MVRV Z-score, which uses a combination of Bitcoin’s market value, realized value and z-score, has been a reliable tool to help identify when BTC is “extremely over or undervalued relative to its fair value” according to LookIntoBitcoin.

*Bitcoin MVRV Z-score. Source: LookIntoBitcoin*

As shown on the chart above, periods where the red z-score has entered the lower green band have represented good buying opportunities for BTC, as have times when the market price dropped below the realized price, a feature shown by the blue and yellow lines at the top of the chart.

The Bitcoin Investor Tool provided by LookIntoBitcoin likewise offers insight when buying or selling Bitcoin can produce outsized returns.

*Bitcoin Investor Tool. Source: LookIntoBitcoin*

The green shaded areas on the chart represent periods of time where the price of Bitcoin is at a level that is considered historically low and may represent a good opportunity to buy.

It should be noted that with the Bitcoin investor tool and the MVRV Z-Score, the time spent in bear market conditions varies and can go on for an extended period, so it would be wise for investors to not solely base their investment thesis on any particular metric or indicator in isolation.

Bitcoin price holds $20K, but analysts say ‘expect 6 months of sideways’ price action

July 6, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

BTC bulls are holding $20,000, but most traders are confident that the price will remain range-bound for at least six more months.

Trading across the cryptocurrency market was relatively subdued on July 5 as the ecosystem continues to digest the fallout from the Three Arrows Capital scandal and Voyager Digital announcing that it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has spent the day oscillating around the $20,000 support level, ranging from a low of $19,775 to an intraday high of $20,480 on $25.48 billion in trading volume.

Here’s a look at what several analysts are saying about what could come next for Bitcoin and what support and resistance levels to keep an eye on in the event of a sharp move in price.

Watch the repeating pennant pattern

A noticeable pattern on the Bitcoin chart prior to the pullbacks that have occurred since November 2021 was pointed out by crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Moustache, who posted the following chart displaying the similarities between each drawdown.

Moustache said,

“$BTC has done the same pattern every time, but each descending triangle has gotten smaller and smaller? Another bearish breakout and the target would be between $14,000 and $16,000.”

Noted market analyst Peter Brandt also recently highlighted the repeating pennant pattern on the Bitcoin chart, but stopped short of saying which way the price could move once the formation completes.

When it looks like a pennant and acts like a pennant it is often a pennant $BTC pic.twitter.com/O7RtnvFSp0
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 5, 2022

Address count grows as the market looks for a bottom

Lately, one of the most popular topics of conversation on crypto Twitter has been centered around trying to predict the bottom in Bitcoin price.

According to cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, Bitcoin has now closed below its 200 weekly average for four consecutive weeks, a development that has historically “marked previous market bottoms.”

*Bitcoin price performance since January 2020. Source: Delphi Digital*

As for whether or not Bitcoin traders should expect a rapid recovery, Delphi Digital noted that “this is the longest BTC has remained below its 200 weekly average” and highlighted the fact that “Bitcoin’s weekly correlation coefficient continues to remain inversely related to the US Dollar as it hit a 17-month low of -0.77.”

While a strong dollar suggests that Bitcoin price will continue to struggle alongside other assets, Delphi Digital highlighted one encouraging development that suggests BTC adoption continues to grow.

Delphi Digital said,

“With prices continuing to fall, the number of BTC addresses accumulating BTC continues to rise. Addresses holding at least one BTC have reached a new all-time high of 877,501.”

Some traders predict chop for the remainder of 2022

A macro look at what the past performance of Bitcoin suggests about its future was provided by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user KALEO, who posted the following chart outlining previous market cycles.

Based on the chart and the predicted path provided, Kaleo suggested that the market will continue to trade sideways for the foreseeable future and will be “defined by a crab market saying above HTF logarithmic support.

Kaleo said,

“Most likely path from here is seeing a base range between $16K - $30K established, that eventually resolves around December when price finally breaks above HTF diagonal resistance.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $916 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42.5%.

Bitcoin trader says expect more chop, downside, then sideways price action for BTC this summer

July 1, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

Crypto Jebb and independent market analyst Scott Melker agree that the crypto market’s toughest days still lay ahead.

Discussion of the state of the crypto market has been a dominant headline over the past few weeks as non-crypto native media excoriate Bitcoin (BTC) and DeFi investors for investing in assets with no fundamental value. At the same time, crypto-savvy analysts and traders have been pouring over charts, looking for clues that signal when the market will bottom and reverse course.

Novice investors are clearly nervous and a few have predicted the demise of the burgeoning asset class, but for those that have been around for multiple cycles, this new bear market is just another forest clearing fire that will eventually lead to a healthier ecosystem.

The next steps for the crypto market was a topic discussed in depth with Cointelegraph contributor Crypto Jebb and independent market analyst Scott Melker. The pair chatted about their views on why the value proposition for Bitcoin remains strong and what the price action for the top cryptocurrency could look like moving forward.

Here’s a look at some of the key points discussed by Crypto Jebb and Melker.

Bitcoin is being used as it was originally intended

Traders are primarily focused on Bitcoin's spot price and lamenting the fact that it is not performing as the inflation hedge that many promised it would be, but Melker pointed out that its performance largely depends on the country and economic state of where an individual lives.

Bitcoin may be down significantly in terms of U.S. dollars, but when compared to countries like Venezuela that are experiencing hyperinflation, or Nigeria, which has a large unbanked population, BTC has offered people a way to preserve the value of their money and transact in an open financial system.

One of the biggest functions highlighted by Melker is that Bitcoin is the first real asset that has given people around the world the ability to opt out of the current financial system if it’s not working for them.

According to Crypto Jebb, Bitcoin is thermodynamically sound, meaning he defined as the asset holding on to the energy that is put into the system and that it doesn’t “leak” it out through things like inflation.

What direction will the market take?

Regarding the market's future, Melker made sure to emphasize that while it may not seem like crypto adoption is moving fast to those who have been in the market for years, “the adoption of Bitcoin is faster than the internet. It's a hockey stick curve that is absolutely going parabolic.”

Both Crypto Jebb and Melker suggested that the paradigm shift toward investing in cryptocurrencies just needs more time because people who have been conditioned to invest in things like a 401k or Roth IRA and most investors are trained to fear risk.

In response to possible critics who would cite Bitcoin's volatility as a core reason to avoid cryptocurrencies, Melker highlighted the struggles that equities markets have had lately, citing the poor performance of stocks like Netflix, Facebook, PayPal and Cathie Woods’s ARK funds.

Melker said,

“Last month was the first time I believe I saw research from Messari that said there wasn’t a single place that you could have basically put money in an asset class and stored any sort of value. And if you stayed in cash, you lost 8% of your buying power doing that.”

Expect more downside over the short-term

According to Melker, the current condition of the market is poor and in the short-term, it's important to remember that “the trend is your friend” and that further downside is likely.

That being said, Melker indicated that there are some developments coming up that could help the market out of its lull, including the Fed tightening cycle which has historically put pressure on asset prices for the first three quarters of the tightening cycle until the market adjusts to the new reality.

Melker said,

“My best guess is that we have a very choppy, boring low-volume, low liquidity summer. Maybe we put in new lows, or maybe we just chop around from $17.5K to $22K or $23K, something like that. And then we really start to see what the market is made of coming into the end of the year.”

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