BTC Markets

On-chain data suggests that the market has “already capitulated” and traders identify a bullish technical analysis pattern with a breakout target near the $41,300 level.

Traders' struggle to build sustainable bullish momentum persisted across the cryptocurrency market on April 20 after prices slid lower during the afternoon trading session and ApeCoin (APE) appaers to be one of the few tokens that is defying the current market-wide downturn. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that an early morning attempt by Bitcoin (BTC) bulls to breakout above $42,000 was soundly rejected by bears, resulting in a pullback to a daily low of $40,825 before the price was bid back above $41,000.

Here’s a look at what several market analysts are saying about the weakness in Bitcoin and what levels traders are looking at as a good spot for opening new positions.

Whales accumulate near $40,000

According to on-chain data firm Whalemap, there is a significant amount of volume near the $40,000 price level.

Whalemap said,

“A largely significant portion of whale holdings reside between $38,000 and $42,000 right now. Vital area for Bitcoin. Above it - bullish. Below it - bearish.”

Analysts say most of the market has already capitulated

Similar to the observation made by Whalemap, Glassnode analysts noted that “a large amount of coin supply has been re-accumulated between $38,000 and $45,000, which is the primary price range of the current market consolidation.”

When the data is broken down between long term holders (LTH) and short term holders (STH), which is determined by a holding threshold of 155 days, only a few of the STHs who bought between $50,000 and $60,000 are still holding, “suggesting most 'top buyers' have likely already capitulated.”

According to Glassnode, a large percentage of the current STH demand “is clustered between $38,000 and $50,000, affirming that investors continue to see value in this price range.”

The fact that 15.2% of the Bitcoin held by LTHs is currently at a loss suggests that a lot of LTHs “were caught off-side” by the most recent market correction according to Glassnode, a result that is typically seen “in late-stage bear markets, most of which preceded a final capitulation shake-out event.”

Glassnode hypothesized that some of the current weaknesses in the market could be due to the fear of further capitulation, which is prompting traders to wait on the sidelines until such an event occurs.

Glassnode said,

“However under the surface, it appears as though a huge swathe of the market has already capitulated, in a statistically significant manner, and a resilient inflow of demand between $35,000 to $42,000 range has quietly absorbed this sell-side in its entirety.”

Related: BTC price hits 10-day high as trader says $42K is where Bitcoin 'gets interesting'

Bitcoin needs to hold the $41,300 level

Pseudonymous Twitter user ‘Abnessa’ said Bitcoin price needs to break above $41,300 to complete a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.

According to Abnessa, Bitcoin is currently “trying to reclaim this level after the failed support/resistance (S/R) flip.”

To establish the bullish case, Bitcoin needs to “successfully flip S/R of the current descending trendline” and “reclaim support up to the green neckline,” thus completing the inverse head and shoulders setup.

As for the bearish case, a failed retest of $41,300 would result in a “breakout below the bear-flag” and would “also mean S/R flip rising wedge resistance as support.” If this were to occur, Abnessa sees a “minimum dump target of $35,000.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.909 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.1%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

$40,000 remains a hurdle for BTC price, but traders still agree that the current range is a zone for accumulation.

Traders faced another day of red markets on April 14 after the weakness in equities markets continued to put a damper on crypto prices. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after holding onto support above $41,000 in the early hours of April 14, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) was slammed back below $40,000 in the afternoon session and hit a daily low of $39,550.

Here’s a look at what analysts are saying about the short-term outlook for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin needs to find support above $42,000

Bitcoin's price action on the monthly chart was discussed by markets analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart showing what happened when the $47,000 resistance level was rejected in September 2021.

Similar to the current price action, the move in September also dropped to the blue support line at $41,300 “and also respected a green higher low.”

Rekt Captial said,

“As long as BTC performs a Monthly Close above blue, history may repeat.”

A similar outlook was expressed by crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Decodejar, who posted the following chart stating, “Bitcoin needs to find support above $42,000.”

Check for longs in the $40,000 zone

Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe sees the current price action for Bitcoin as “a pretty standard playing field here” based on the following chart posted on Twitter.

van de Poppe said,

“Looking at the $42,000 barrier to break first, that would be a trend break. Otherwise, the $40,000 zone is the area where I'd want to check for longs.”

Related: Bitcoin bulls need to reclaim $41K ahead of Friday’s $615M BTC options expiry

The possibility of a bullish uptrend

Insight into the long-term outlook for Bitcoin based on the percentage of supply held in profit was explored by analyst On-Chain College, who posted the following chart noting that the metric had “bounced off the ~62.5% level three times this year.”

On-Chain College said,

“Currently, over 69% of the supply is in profit. Historically, when this metric hits the red zone (+95%) BTC is 'overheated' and the potential sell pressure is high.”

A second observation suggesting a bullish future for BTC was mentioned by crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user TAnalyst, who posted the following chart analyzing the "Bitcoin choppiness index."

TAnalyst said,

“For the third time since 2015, we have reached the green zone. The last two times this occurred, a massive bullish uptrend followed. Probably nothing…”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.857 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 40.9%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Traders say the threat of a lengthy bear market is heightened after BTC price drops to $39,200.

The cryptocurrency market took a turn for the worse on April 11 after concerns related to rising inflation, the prospect of several more interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve and fear of a global food shortage led to widespread weakness across global financial markets.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that bears broke through the bulls' defensive line at $42,000 in the early trading hours on Monday to drop Bitcoin (BTC) to a daily low of $39,200 and several analysts project even lower prices in the short-term.

Here’s a look at what analysts are saying about Monday’s move lower and whether or not traders should expect more downside over the coming days.

$40,000 or bust

The dip below $40,000 was foreshadowed by market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who posted the following chart on Sunday highlighting the strong move in Bitcoin, but he also warned that “it's the weekend and we still need to crack this resistance zone.”

After Monday’s pullback, van de Poppe posted a follow-up tweet addressing the rejection at $43,000 and offering insight into what level to keep an eye on as the next support. According to the trader, "the green zone" in the $43,000 to $44,000 range would need to become support to preserve any blossoming bullish momentum. 

This bear market is "different"

Insight into the confusion that many crypto traders have been experiencing over the past year was provided by decentralized finance advisor and pseudonymous Twitter trader ‘McKenna’, who posted the following chart looking at the Bitcoin price action since April 2021. McKenna said that “this has been the weirdest bear market I’ve seen.”

McKenna said,

“I don't even think we see sub $30,000, I'm more in favor of just choppy price action in this range which is also hell. Just need corn to chill and let my altcoins run.”

A similar sentiment was expressed by crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user '360Trader’, who posted the following chart highlighting the consolidation range Bitcoin has been trading in since last November.

360Trader said,

“Bitcoin consolidation continues... leverage is in control... float still drying up... This ain't gonna last forever. Just slap a band-aid on and keep pushing.”

Related: Bitcoin keeps falling as former BitMEX CEO gives $30K BTC price target for June

Where does Bitcoin go from here?

A final bit of insight on the future of BTC price was provided by Philip Swift, markets analyst and founder of LookintoBitcoin, who posted the following chart showing the recent price rejection off the 1-year moving average (MA).

According to Swift, the 1-year MA “has acted as a pivot point for bull v. bear markets throughout Bitcoin’s history.”

Swift said,

“Can't really call it a bull market until we are convincingly back over the 1yr MA.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.874 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.4%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Traders say BTC is following the expected trajectory, but several macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions remain a threat to Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high.

After dropping below $45,000 on March 31, Bitcoin (BTC) surprised investors with a quicker-than-expected recovery to the $46,500 level.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that bears managed to drop BTC to an overnight low of $44,210 before bulls showed up in force to lift the price back above $46,500 by midday.

Here’s what several analysts are saying about the short-term outlook for Bitcoin moving forward and what developments could present headwinds for the top cryptocurrency as a new month gets underway.

The macro environment continues to impact BTC price

Events in the global financial market continue to have a large impact on cryptocurrency markets and are likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

According to Macro Hive CEO Bilal Hafeez, “currently macro is dominating Bitcoin” as evidenced by the “last few days of equity weakness” that “has also led to Bitcoin declines.”

Hafeez also pointed to higher interest rates in the US, a more hawkish Fed, and weakness in the Chinese markets as reasons for the current volatility in equities markets.

While these macro events continue to weigh on financial markets, Macro Hive noted that there are signs of hope in Bitcoin-specific metrics.

Hafeez said,

“Bitcoin-specific dynamics are bullish with renewed ETF inflows, open interest rising and HODLers accumulating.”

Traders are waiting break above $48,000

The pullback in BTC price over the past 24-hours was somewhat expected according to David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer at ExoAlpha. Lifchitz pointed to Bitcoin's “7-day win streak” and end-of-the-quarter activity from institutional investors as contributing to the decline.

Despite the pullback on March 31, Lifchitz indicated that “the upside support trendline from March 21 remains intact,” and will likely hold as support moving forward barring “a revisit of the low $40,000s in the next couple of days.”

“Wildcards” identified by Lifchitz that could affect this outlook include “the situation in Ukraine, the EU financial commission going after crypto with a vengeance and the Mt. Gox liquidation that could come any day.”

Lifchitz said,

“A break above $48,000 then $51,000 is what the bulls are looking for, so we'll see if they are served next week (new quarter = potential for new institutional inflows.”

Related: Just 2 million Bitcoin left: Bitcoin hits the 19 million milestone

BTC is at the end of a major corrective period

A final bit of reassurance was provided by market analyst Will Clemente, who posted the following chart noting the “pretty clean reaction from BTC so far on this pullback.”

The significance of today's bounce was succinctly summarized by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘PlanC’.

The 128-Day SMA is currently at $43,972. #Bitcoin

We broke it and than on this pullback #BTC bounced hard at $44,200.

In all previous cycles (5/5 times), a break of the 128-Day SMA signalled the major corrective / accumulation periods were finished. #Crypto

— Plan©️ (@TheRealPlanC) April 1, 2022

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.137 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.1%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

BTC finally hit the projected $45,000 support zone, but analysts have mixed views on whether continuation or consolidation will be the next step.

The euphoric calls for a return of the bull market may have been a bit early especially after Bitcoin (BTC) bulls failed to push the price over the $46,000 level on March 31. Even with the current pullback, analysts continue to expect a lower support retest at the $45,000 level.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that today's attempt to push the price of BTC above $47,500 was soundly rejected by bears which sent the top cryptocurrency plunging to $45,500.

Here’s a look at what several analysts in the market are saying about the price pullback for BTC and whether or not traders should brace for further losses or prepare for another move higher.

This is just a short term correction

Not all traders were caught flat-footed by Thursday's move lower in Bitcoin, including market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘IncomeSharks’, who posted the following chart prior to the price drop noting that the “4h looks like it wants to correct a bit.”

IncomeSharks said,

“This is not me being bearish, I'm just noticing 3 reasons why a little correction makes sense. Supertrend is going flat, we probably will re-test this breakout, and we can bounce at the trend line. Good time for me to take profits.”

BTC searches for support between $42,000 and $45,000

The next available levels of support to keep an eye on were discussed by market analyst and economist Caleb Franzen, who posted the following chart showing the 21-day, 55-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) for Bitcoin stating, “Sometimes it's helpful to cut out all the noise, remove price structure analysis, and just look at the exponential moving averages.”

Franzen said,

"All are potential support for Bitcoin, giving us a range of $42,000 - $45,000.”

Related: Bitcoin derivatives metrics favor a move to $48K, but only after a lower support retest

A necessary period of sideways consolidation

A more macro view on what comes next for Bitcoin was provided by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘BTCFuel’, who posted the following chart comparing the BTC price action in 2012 to its current movement and suggested that “after being up 28% in the last 2 weeks and breaking a major resistance, some sideways consolidation should be good for Bitcoin.”

BTCFuel said,

“In the next months, I believe that Bitcoin will move slow and steadily up like in 2012. But altcoins will go nuts.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.087 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.6%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.