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Gamma Squeeze Frenzy: Could Bitcoin Prices Skyrocket Past Six Figures?

Gamma Squeeze Frenzy: Could Bitcoin Prices Skyrocket Past Six Figures?A gamma squeeze, a high-stakes event in options trading, has the potential to catapult bitcoin (BTC) prices beyond the six-figure mark, reshaping the crypto market landscape. Understanding Call Options in the Bitcoin Market and the Gamma Squeeze To understand a gamma squeeze, it’s key to first grasp the basics of options trading. Options are financial […]

Currency Wars Are Brewing: The Seeds of a Global Financial Spiral Are Being Sown

Report: Crypto Traders Lean Toward Leveraged Long Positions After Trump Victory

Report: Crypto Traders Lean Toward Leveraged Long Positions After Trump VictoryA report indicates that post-U.S. elections, traders are favoring leveraged long positions in perpetuals and futures contracts. Trump’s Victory Brings Stability to Markets According to a new report by Bybit and Block Scholes, market trends in the period immediately after the U.S. elections suggest traders are leaning strongly toward leveraged long positions, especially in perpetuals […]

Currency Wars Are Brewing: The Seeds of a Global Financial Spiral Are Being Sown

SEC again delays decision on spot Ethereum ETF options

The securities regulator authorized Bitcoin options to list on BlackRock's spot BTC ETF in September.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again postponed ruling on whether an exchange can list options tied to spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to an Oct. 11 filing.

The SEC has delayed deciding on a proposed rule change permitting Cboe Exchange to list options tied to several popular spot ETH funds, the filing said.

The deadline for a ruling from the agency has been pushed back from Oct. 19 to Dec. 3, according to the filing.

Read more

Currency Wars Are Brewing: The Seeds of a Global Financial Spiral Are Being Sown

Bitcoin options tantalizing bears to push price below $30K before Friday’s expiry

Bitcoin bears are closing in on a rare win, as they have the advantage in this week’s $600 million BTC options expiry.

This week’s Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry on Friday, July 21, could solidify the $30,000 resistance level and give the bears the upper hand for the first time since the 21% rally between June 14 and June 21.

Bitcoin options expiries coincide with volatility

A review of Bitcoin’s recent price action shows that three out of the last four BTC options expiries triggered significant price movements, making it crucial for traders to pay close attention to these events.

Bitcoin/USD price index, 4-hour. Source: TradingView

Notably, Bitcoin’s price has consistently shown strong reactions following the weekly 8:00 am UTC options expiry. While causation cannot be established, the magnitude of these price swings warrants extreme caution leading up to the weekly expiry on July 21.

Bitcoin bears benefit from stricter regulations

While this week’s options expiry could give bears control of Bitcoin’s price in the short term, bulls have the potential advantage of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission reviewing spot exchange-traded fund proposals.

Although these proposals are still in the early stages of regulatory scrutiny, the slow progression could partially explain why the bears have managed to defend $31,000 multiple times since late June.

However, their best chance of keeping Bitcoin’s price below $30,000 lies in the worsening regulatory environment. On July 19, the global securities exchange Nasdaq suspended the launch of its cryptocurrency custodian solution due to a lack of regulatory clarity in the United States. This change of plans was justified by Nasdaq’s CEO, Adena Friedman.

Related: Bipartisan bill to regulate DeFi, crypto security risks introduced into US Senate

Furthermore, on July 14, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced the suspension of its staking services for clients in California, New Jersey, South Carolina and Wisconsin. This decision followed a June 6 lawsuit from the SEC that accused the exchange of operating as an unregistered security broker since 2019.

Bitcoin bulls’ overoptimism leads to a disappointing outcome

Bitcoin’s price briefly surpassed $31,000 on July 13 and July 14, fueling bullish bets by traders using options contracts. However, a four-hour correction brought the price back down to $30,000.

Deribit Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for July 21. Source: Deribit

The 0.39 put-to-call ratio reflects the difference in open interest between the $430 million call (buy) options and the $170 million put (sell) options. However, the outcome will be lower than the $600 million total open interest since the bulls were overconfident.

For example, if Bitcoin’s price trades at $30,500 at 8:00 am UTC on July 14, only $18 million worth of call options will be accounted for. This distinction arises from the fact that the right to purchase Bitcoin at $31,000 or $32,000 becomes invalid if BTC trades below those levels upon expiration.

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 21 for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments varies depending on the expiration price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $28,000 and $30,000: 100 calls vs. 2,400 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $70 million.
  • Between $30,000 and $31,000: 600 calls vs. 1,800 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $35 million.
  • Between $31,000 and $32,000: 3,100 calls vs. 1,400 puts. The net result favors the call (buy) instruments by $55 million.

Considering the recent weak macroeconomic indicators, it’s likely that bears will continue suppressing Bitcoin’s price until Friday’s expiry. Moreover, China’s second-quarter gross domestic product grew by 6.3% year-on-year, falling short of the 7.3% market expectation. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.2% from the previous month, below the 0.50% consensus.

Consequently, the bulls find themselves in a challenging position, as their call (buy) instruments will be invalidated if Bitcoin’s expiry price falls below $30,000. Therefore, the bears’ $35 million favorable outcome may not be a significant win, but it does increase the chances of $30,000 becoming a new resistance area. 

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Currency Wars Are Brewing: The Seeds of a Global Financial Spiral Are Being Sown

Bitcoin’s dive under $27K liquidates $100M — So why aren’t margin traders flipping bearish?

BTC price falls below the 55-day support level at $27,000, but futures market resilience sparks hope for a recovery toward $28,000.

Bitcoin’s price (BTC) broke below its 55-day support at $27,000 on May 12. In result, the two-day, 7% correction to $26,155 caused $100 million worth of long BTC futures contracts to be liquidated.

However, Bitcoin margin and futures markets displayed strength during the down-move, fueling hope of a recovery toward $28,000.

Regulatory pressure, stronger U.S. dollar bite

Regulatory uncertainty in the United States significantly increased after Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital received yet another subpoena. The publicly traded mining company informed investors on May 10 that it received a subpoena from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerning whether it may have violated federal securities laws, among other things, by using related-party transactions.

Furthermore, there’s the additional risk of the 627,522 Bitcoins held by the Grayscale GBTC Trust Fund, which has been trading at a steep discount for over a year while Grayscale’s holding company, Digital Currency Group (DCG), struggles with some failing subsidiaries. DCG’s crypto lending and trading firm, Genesis Capital, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January.

Despite having separate corporate structures, Genesis Capital had "intercompany obligations" with the holding company DCG, so the consequences for the administration of the Grayscale funds are unknown. Additionally, the group reportedly owes Gemini's clients about $900 million, and the U.S. SEC charged Genesis and Gemini in January.

Bitcoin’s 7.2% correction happened as the dollar strength index (DXY), which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of foreign exchanges, displayed strength. The indicator reached 101 on May 8, nearing its 12-month low, a sign of low-confidence in the government’s ability to curb inflation while simultaneously managing to increase the debt limit.

Historically, there has been an inverse correlation between the DXY index and risk-on assets such as Bitcoin, given that a weaker dollar tends to drive demand for alternative store-of-values and scarce assets.

Let's look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market environment.

Bitcoin margin market traders slightly less optimistic

Margin markets provide insight into how professional traders are positioned because they allow investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.

OKX, for instance, provides a margin lending indicator based on the stablecoin/BTC ratio. Traders can increase their exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only bet on the decline of the cryptocurrency's price.

OKX stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX

The above chart shows that OKX traders' margin lending ratio decreased between May 8 and May 11. Still, that is not concerning, given that those traders remain favoring bullish strategies as the stablecoin (long) demand currently surpasses the BTC (short) demand by a factor of 18 times — which is healthy.

Related: Texas votes to add crypto to state’s Bill of Rights

No signs of panic selling after Bitcoin price crash

To exclude externalities that might have solely impacted the margin markets, traders should analyze the long-to-short metric. The metric gathers data from exchange clients’ positions on spot, perpetual, and quarterly futures contracts, thus offering better information on how pro traders are positioned.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Exchanges' top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

Even though Bitcoin broke below the $28,000 support, professional traders have increased their leveraged long positions using futures, according to the long-to-short indicator.

At crypto exchange OKX, the long-to-short ratio increased, from 0.92 on May 8 to 1.01 on May 12. Meanwhile, at Binance, the long-to-short ratio stabilized at 1.13, indicating there was no shift to a bearish position from whales and market makers.

Therefore, despite the 12% price decline from a high of $29,865 on May 6, traders using margin and futures contracts did not abandon their bullish stance. The movement indicates confidence that Bitcoin is more likely to reclaim $28,000 than succumb to the next support level near $24,500.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Currency Wars Are Brewing: The Seeds of a Global Financial Spiral Are Being Sown

Bitcoin bears need BTC price to go below $27K ahead of Friday’s $900M options expiry

Bitcoin price giving up ground over the past week to slide below $28,000 has put bears in a better position for Friday's expiry.

The $900 million Bitcoin (BTC) weekly options expiry on May 12 might play a decisive role in determining whether the price will succumb below $27,000.

Bitcoin price rejected again at $30,000

BTC bears will try to take advantage of macroeconomic headwinds, Silk Road coins' FUD, and uncertainty caused by Bitcoin’s transaction fee spike to pull Bitcoin's price down in the next few days.

Bitcoin 4-h price movements during option expiries. Source: TradingView

The BTC/USD pair  broke above $29,800 on May 6, but the tide quickly changed as the resistance proved stronger than anticipated.

The subsequent 8.2% two-day correction tested  $27,400 support, favoring the thesis of sideways trading as investors evaluate the economic crisis dynamic and its potential impact on cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway owner and billionaire investor Warren Buffett is no longer optimistic about the U.S. economy’s growth. Such a pessimistic scenario for the global economy might explain why some Bitcoin traders decided to reduce exposure over the past week, greatly reducing the odds of breaking $30,000.

Bitcoin options: bulls were excessively optimistic

The open interest for the May 12 options expiry is $900 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$28,000 price levels.

These traders got excessively optimistic after Bitcoin’s price rallied 11.2% between April 9 and April 14, testing the $31,000 resistance.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for May 12. Source: CoinGlass

The 1.65 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $560 million in call (buy) open interest and the $340 million in put (sell) options.

But if Bitcoin’s price remains near $27,500 at 8:00 am UTC on May 12, only $11 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $28,000 or $29,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bitcoin bulls aim for $28,000 to balance the scales

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on May 12 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price.

The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $25,000 and $27,000: 100 calls vs. 9,900 puts. Bears in total control, profiting $230 million.
  • Between $27,000 and $28,000: 400 calls vs. 5,000 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $120 million.
  • Between $28,000 and $29,000: 1,500 calls vs. 2,100 puts. The result is balanced between put and call options.
  • Between $29,000 and $30,000: 3,300 calls vs. 800 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $70 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For instance, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. Unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Ultimately, after it became clear that the Bitcoin network was working as designed, the selling pressure dissipated, causing Bitcoin’s price to stabilize around $27,500. Nevertheless, traders should be cautious as the bears are still in a better position for Friday’s weekly options expiry, favoring negative price moves.

Related: PayPal’s crypto holdings increased by 56% in Q1 2023 to nearly $1B

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Currency Wars Are Brewing: The Seeds of a Global Financial Spiral Are Being Sown

Rising Bitcoin Prices Cause Cascade of Short Liquidations, Highest Ratio of Short vs. Long Wipeouts Since July 2021

Rising Bitcoin Prices Cause Cascade of Short Liquidations, Highest Ratio of Short vs. Long Wipeouts Since July 2021The top two crypto assets have risen significantly in the past seven days, with bitcoin jumping 22.6% and ethereum increasing 18.6% against the U.S. dollar. According to market data, both crypto assets saw the largest increase on Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023. The sudden spike in value caused the highest ratio of short liquidations vs long […]

Currency Wars Are Brewing: The Seeds of a Global Financial Spiral Are Being Sown

3 reasons why Bitcoin is likely heading below $16,000

Reasons for bearishness include U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, the absence of leverage buyers' demand, and fearful BTC option traders.

December will likely be remembered by Bitcoin's (BTC) fake breakout above $18,000, but apart from that brief overshoot, its trajectory was entirely bearish. In fact, the downward trend that currently offers an $18,850 resistance could bring the BTC price below $16,000 by mid-January.

Bitcoin/USD price index, 12-hour. Source: TradingView

A handful of reasons can explain the negative movement, including the reported withdrawal of Mazars Group auditing firm from the cryptocurrency sector on Dec. 16. The company previously handled proof-of-reserve audit services for Binance, KuCoin and Crypto.com.

Additionally, one can point to the bankruptcy of one of the largest cryptocurrency miners in the United States, Core Scientific. The publicly listed company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Dec. 21 due to rising energy costs, increasing competition, and the Bitcoin price crash in 2022.

The liquidity crisis at the crypto lender and trading desk Genesis Global and its parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG), sparked fear among investors. More importantly, DCG manages the $10.5 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC). The fund is currently trading at a 47% discount to its net asset value in part due to investor speculation on its exposure to Genesis Global.

Negative pressure from the U.S. Federal Reserve tightening movement

Apart from the bearish newsflow, the macroeconomic scenario deteriorated after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 50 bps on Dec. 14. Analysts, including Jim Bianco, head of institutional research firm Bianco Research, said that the monetary authority would maintain its tighter monetary policy in 2023.

Investors fear that Bitcoin could break below the current descending trend support at $16,100, triggering a sharp correction. TH3 Cryptologist, a veteran crypto trader, points out a descending wedge potentially causing a $14,000 low by February 2023.

But let's also look at Bitcoin derivatives data to understand if the price action and recent news have impacted crypto investors' sentiment.

Bitcoin buyers' demand using leverage are yet to be seen

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Meanwhile, professional traders prefer these instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates in a perpetual futures contract.

The three-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Thus, when the futures trade at a discount versus regular spot markets, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers — a bearish indicator.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Bitcoin futures premium stands negative. Even more concerning, not even the $18,000 pump on Dec. 14 was able to shift those whales and market makers to a balanced leverage demand between longs and shorts.

Still, the lack of demand for leverage buyers does not necessarily indicate traders expect an immediate adverse price action. For this reason, one should analyze Bitcoin's options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument.

Related: $8K dive or $22K rebound? Bitcoin traders anticipate Q1 BTC price action

Options traders getting comfortable with downside risks

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

The delta skew peaked at 23% on Dec. 29, signaling that options traders are uncomfortable with downside risks.

As the 30-day delta skew stands at 18%, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing that the $16,100 support will likely be tested.

Therefore, the reasons for investors' bearishness are the continuation of higher interest rates, absence of leverage buyers' demand, and BTC option traders positioning for more downside.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Currency Wars Are Brewing: The Seeds of a Global Financial Spiral Are Being Sown

Is Bitcoin ‘cheap’ below $40,000? BTC derivative metrics are mixed

Bitcoin options markets are pricing further downside while margin traders are going increasingly long.

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $40,000 support on April 18, and the two-week 15% correction was enough to prompt predictions of $30,000 prices in the near term. 

Meanwhile, regulatory uncertainties continue to be a key concern for investors, including the failed European Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) proposed rules for ”unhosted” private wallets. For instance, exchanges started to demand additional information on its users just last week, causing some discomfort to traders.

Europe regulation “near miss” brings distress

The European Union Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs voted on March 14 to ban or restrict Proof-of-Work-based crypto assets, but the proposed amendment was postponed.

More recently, in an email notification to users on April 13, the Bitstamp cryptocurrency exchange informed its customers about the ongoing policy upgrades on the platform, with the exchange seeking additional info.

Bitstamp now requires users to provide information like nationality, place of birth and tax residency, in addition to documents proving the origin of crypto and the annual income.

On April 14, the Nonprofit group Coin Center called the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) March 18 Amendments Regarding the Definition of “Exchange” an “unconstitutional overreach.” If the proposal becomes an SEC rule, decentralized platforms would likely be urged to register as exchanges.

Not everything has been negative for the sector, however, as more crypto-friendly names are about to join the United States government.

On April 15, U.S. President Joe Biden announced his intention to nominate law professor Michael Barr as the central bank’s vice chair for supervision.

Barr was on the advisory board of Ripple Labs from 2015 to 2017 before serving as the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial institutions under former President Barack Obama.

But to get a clearer picture of how traders are positioned, there’s no better tool than analyzing Bitcoin derivatives' metrics.

Margin traders are increasingly bullish

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency and leverage their trading position, thus potentially increasing returns. For example, one can buy cryptocurrencies by borrowing Tether to enlarge exposure.

On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only short the cryptocurrency as they bet on its price decline. Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn‘t always matched.

OKEx USDT/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKEx

The above chart shows that traders have been borrowing more USD Tether (USDT) recently, as the ratio increased from 13 on April 14 to the current 17. The higher the indicator, the more confident professional traders are with Bitcoin’s price.

It is worth noting that the 20 margin lending ratio reached on April 11 was the highest level in 6 months, indicating bullishness.

Bitcoin options show fear sentiment is prevailing

However, it became difficult to anticipate the market's next move since Bitcoin started to drift sideways near $40,000 last week. Still, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. The metric will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.

Bitcoin 30-day options show 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

If traders fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator will move above 8%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 8% skew.

As displayed above, we entered the 8% “fear” mode on April 8 after 30 days ranging in a neutral area. Bitcoin had already dropped below $43,000 when the 25% delta skew indicator shifted to bearish sentiment.

Despite the negative indicator from Bitcoin options, margin trading data suggests that these arbitrage desks and market makers seem confident that the sub-$40,000 dip will reverse.

The OKX margin lending rate showed pro traders increased their bullish bets after a 15% BTC price rally in 14 days, which should be comforting for those currently underwater.

Regardless, there is no reason to ignore the bearish put options trading at a premium. It signals that the odds of a price crash are still substantial. Consequently, sometimes the best trade is to do nothing, sit tight and wait for more clarity in price action.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Currency Wars Are Brewing: The Seeds of a Global Financial Spiral Are Being Sown

Bitcoin bulls may ignore Friday’s $730M options expiry by saving their energy for $40K

Bitcoin price is no longer in reach of $40,000, but data shows bulls are willing to take a few short-term losses in order to strengthen their next run at the key resistance level.

The past few months have been less than pleasant for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls, but they are not alone. Persistent comments from the United States Federal Reserve hint at plans to raise interest rates in 2022 and thi is causing investors to seek protection in inflation-protected bonds.

The monetary authority signaled its intention to substantially raise the benchmark interest rate and they will also gradually reduce the monthly purchase of debt assets.

Even though some crypto investors deem Bitcoin digital scarcity as inflationary protection, that does not change its volatility. In turn, it causes the asset price to move in tandem with risk markets.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase, USD (right) vs. Russell 2000 index (left)

The above chart shows Bitcoin price in blue stacked against the smaller U.S. listed companies, as measured by the Russell 2000 equity markets index. Unlike the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Index, this benchmark excludes those tech giants. Thus, the smaller companies are usually considered riskier and are more impacted when investors fear an economic downturn.

However, the negative performance did not scare investors as the Canada-based Purpose Bitcoin ETF attracted over $38 million worth of Bitcoin this Tuesday, its third-largest daily inflow to date. The fund now holds 31,032 BTC, equivalent to $1.2 billion.

Regardless of investors' sentiment, Bitcoin bulls could face a $120 million loss if BTC price moves below $36,000 on Friday's options expiry.

$730 million in options expire on Feb. 4

According to Friday's options expiry open interest, Bitcoin bulls placed heavy bets between $40,000 and $44,000. These levels might seem optimistic right now, but Bitcoin was trading above $42,000 two weeks ago.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Feb. 4. Source: Coinglass.com

At first sight, the $430 million call (buy) options dominate the $300 million put (sell) instruments, but the 1.43 call-to-put ratio does not really tell the whole story. For example, the 14% price drop over the past two weeks wiped out most bullish bets.

A call option gives the buyer a right to buy BTC at a fixed price at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 4. However, if the market is trading below that price, there is no value in holding that derivative contract, so its value goes to zero.

Therefore, if Bitcoin remains below $37,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 4, only $34 million of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry.

Bears will fight to keep Bitcoin below $37,000

Here are the three most likely scenarios for Friday's options expiry. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the active quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts varies:

  • Between $35,000 and $37,000: 950 calls vs. 4,210 puts. The net result is $120 million favoring the put (bear) instruments.
  • Between $37,000 and $38,000: 1,650 calls vs. 3,300 puts. The net result favors bear instruments by $60 million.
  • Between $38,000 and $39,000: 4,230 calls vs. 1,710 puts. The net result is balanced between call and put options.

This crude estimate considers call options used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Bulls need $38,000 to balance the scales

A mere 3% price pump from the current $36,900 level is enough for Bitcoin bulls to avoid a $120 million loss on the Feb. 4 options expiry. Still, the same rationale applies to Bitcoin bears because pinning BTC below $37,000 can easily cause them to secure a $120 million profit.

Considering the short-term negative sentiment caused by tighter macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin bulls should pace their energy for a sustainable recovery to $40,000 and higher instead of wasting efforts right now. Therefore, options markets data slightly favor the put (sell) options.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Currency Wars Are Brewing: The Seeds of a Global Financial Spiral Are Being Sown