10-month BTC price lows spark $1B liquidation as Bitcoin eyes $35K CME futures gap

May 10, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Long positions suffer across Bitcoin and altcoins as BTC gets sent back to exchanges for potential sale.

Bitcoin (BTC) upended buy trends through May 10 as BTC/USD sank below $30,000 for the first time since July 2021.

Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant showed exchange reserves start increasing as panic gripped crypto markets.

BTC flows back to exchanges

After seeing a sustained downtrend, the amount of BTC on major exchanges has begun to increase again.

According to CryptoQuant, which tracks the balance of 21 major exchanges, sellers sent a total of 37,537 BTC to accounts from May 6 to May 9 inclusive.

The deposits came as BTC price action fell from $36,000 to $29,700, subsequently recovering to near $32,000 at the time of writing on May 10.

*Bitcoin exchange balance chart. Source: CryptoQuant*

In private comments to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant head of marketing, Hochan Chung, said that the sell-off did not just involve speculators, but formed the next phase of a more concerted desire to reduce BTC exposure from Bitcoin’s biggest token holders.

“The massive inflow was not starting just yesterday. It has started since May,” he said.

“Bitcoin price declines on whale selling. Since early May, growing exchange reserves have been increasingly dominated by whale deposits. As whales move their coins to exchanges it puts downward pressure to bitcoin price.”

Other sources, as Cointelegraph reported, also noticed changing whale behavior, this nonetheless occurring comfortably above Bitcoin’s realized price of around $24,000.

Longs get punished across crypto

At the same time, other traders were less fortunate.

According to figures from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass, Bitcoin’s fall below $30,000 triggered part of crypto market liquidations worth over $1 billion.

The majority of those were long positions coming from altcoins. In the 24 hours to the time of writing, BTC accounted for around $330 million of the liquidations total, with the remainder from altcoin tokens.

*Crypto liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass*

In terms of short-term price targets, however, the weekend’s CME futures gap centered on $35,000 was gathering popularity among traders on the day.

“Bitcoin looks like it's on a mission to recover that CME gap,” popular Twitter account IncomeSharks said.

“The people who sold $34,000 to buy back at $37,000 will end up buying back above $40,000. Happens every time at bottoms. Bears getting greedy.”

*CME Bitcoin futures 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView*

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Buy pressure ‘in bull market territory’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

March 28, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Is it really different this time? Bitcoin is back at the yearly open, but they jury's out when it comes to what's next.

Bitcoin (BTC) begins the last week of March with a bang after returning to its yearly opening price above $46,000.

In a surprisingly strong upward move for a weekend, BTC/USD began surging upwards Saturday, continuing overnight to challenge its highs from the start of 2022.

Coming against an ongoing macro climate of considerable uncertainty, strength in Bitcoin is naturally being taken with a pinch of salt this month. The reaction is understandable given that previous attempts to break out of its multi-month trading range have all ended in failure.

Despite volatile periods, bulls were always left disappointed and Bitcoin subsequently not only reversed but often revisited the lower end of its range, costing both short and long positions dearly.

Nonetheless, the hope is that this time really will be different — analysts had long argued that only a breakout above the range ceiling, formed by the yearly open around $46,200, would be enough to cause a paradigm shift.

Now that this is in action on the charts, attention is focusing on the final hurdle — cementing these multi-month resistance levels as support.

With the process ongoing Monday, Cointelegraph takes a look at potential triggers that could make or break this important episode in Bitcoin price action.

Bitcoin wipes out the 2022 dip

“Gradually then suddenly” or pure chance? Traders are still trying to make sense of Bitcoin’s newfound strength this week.

It’s been a sight absent from the chart since the New Year — BTC/USD is back at $47,000. After jumping almost $3,000 in 24 hours, the largest cryptocurrency dealt a firm blow to resistance levels which had for months kept bulls firmly in their place.

The significance of $46,000 has been a hot topic for almost as long — a return to the yearly open, many said, would be the signal that Bitcoin was ready for bigger things once more.

Few would have thought that the phenomenon would play out “out of hours,” however, and suspicions over the rally’s real strength are naturally pervasive on social media as the week gets underway, just as they were as the rally itself began.

march 2020 - ct was bearish, fooo was bullish

may 2021 ct was bullish, fooo was bearish

july 2021 ct was bearish, fooo was staking fooo's entire reputation on more upside

november 2021 fooo began dumping, ct was bullish

now ct is bullish and fooo is bearish

Wholesome
— fooo - Mayor of Goblin Town (@bitcoinpanda69) March 26, 2022

Nonetheless, even more cautious voices are no longer discounting the potential for further upside, even if longer-term prognosis remains downhill.

$BTC update
Yearly open tagged

Flip to supoort then 50k next with potential move into 53k imo
— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) March 27, 2022

“Fundamental buying pressure for Bitcoin has now climbed into bull market territory,” analyst and statistician Willy Woo reported.

Fellow analyst Matthew Hyland, a key supporter of the $46,000 argument, meanwhile gave a target of $52,000 as the next long-term resistance wall to crack.

#Bitcoin has broken above the $46k resistance zone

The next major resistance zone is around $52k: pic.twitter.com/ueqi5xwkhi
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) March 28, 2022

In Twitter posts, he added that the move was preceded by a breakout on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) indicator, itself a classic signal of breakout trends.

RSI assesses how overbought or oversold an asset is at a specific price, and in the case of Bitcoin, its score has been climbing off a floor level since mid-January, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

Further development of RSI, therefore, could dictate the extent of the rally, as per historical behavioral norms.

*BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with RSI data. Source: TradingView*

Analyst eyes Bitcoin stocks decoupling

It’s a confusing world out there, and when it comes to how Bitcoin should be acting, the picture does not get any easier.

Inflation, war in Europe and the persistent threat of Coronavirus returning — to name just three major macro triggers — have had commentators forecasting doom and gloom for stocks and risk assets alike in 2022.

Just this month, multiple sources warned that Bitcoin could soon face its Waterloo as a dramatic stocks capitulation sparks another March 2020 moment.

The “easy money” age which followed that event is gone, and only a continuation of quantitative easing would bring back the huge capital flows Bitcoin enjoyed later that year, some argued.

Now, however, Bitcoin appears to be striking out on its own, challenging an intense stock market correlation which in the case of the S&P 500 reached a 17-month high last week.

While the S&P has shaken off the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and plans for tightening by the United States Federal Reserve, analysis shows that selling has been considerable and shorts are everywhere — the perfect fuel, ironically enough, for a fresh “short squeeze” upwards.

Equity Traders sold heavily into this rally:

• One of the biggest weekly purges in history (as a % of Market Cap)
• Total $ selling hit a new record
• Spec Positioning now significantly Net Short – at risk of a further squeeze

Similar setups led to some Major rallies. pic.twitter.com/iTYGfEh5iS
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 26, 2022

“Risk-on/Risk-off correlations to equities is a short term effect. BTC trades this correlation due to short term speculators,” Woo explained in a recent dedicated Twitter thread on the topic.

“Bitcoin's internal demand fundamentals powered by its adoption curve is more powerful. Eventually the market decouples; the last time was Oct 2020.”

Should speculators have been ruling the roost so far this year, then a return of interest in Bitcoin futures could be a trigger to watch going forward. Open interest in Bitcoin futures is now at its highest since December, data from Coinglass shows.

*Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: Coinglass*

Who wants their money back?

There is another side to the $46,000 story, making it more than just a symbolic level from the New Year.

As noted by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode this weekend, the area around $45,900 is one with a giant amount of prior buyer activity.

Market entrants bought in on the way down from all-time highs, and have been underwater since thanks to it providing the ceiling for Bitcoin’s 2022 trading range.

A return, Glassnode warned, may ruin the mood as a rush for the exit from those buyers plays out.

“The next major on-chain resistance for Bitcoin is the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, trading at $45.9k. This metric is the average price paid for BTC by investors who purchased after the October ATH,” it explained Friday alongside a chart of its long- and short-term holder realized cap indicator.

“Bearish resistance comes from STHs seeking to 'get their money back.'”

*Bitcoin long- and short-term holder realized cap chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter*

So far, short-term holders — defined as entities holding coins for 155 days or less — have not triggered a reversal of direction. The start of Wall Street trading, however, could still produce surprises.

Difficulty should see a new all-time high in days

Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are certainly determined not to disappoint this year.

The coming week will be no exception, as Bitcoin’s network difficulty climbs to new record highs of approximately 28.67 trillion.

The move will follow a month of losses, which as Cointelegraph reported accompanied the results of upheaval for miners operating in Kazakhstan.

Difficulty’s next automated readjustment, however, will not only cancel out those losses but add 4.4% to the existing tally, making difficulty greater than ever before.

*Bitcoin difficulty 7-day average chart. Source: Blockchain*

The implication of increasing difficulty is essentially that mining for block subsidies has never been more competitive, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s equally bullish hash rate data.

In turn, Bitcoin becomes more resistant to network attacks as an increasing miner presence dedicates more and more resources to competing for the same fixed reward — and thus protecting network participants in the process.

Last year’s 50% hash rate drop, sparked by a crackdown in China which was previously the world’s mining stronghold, now seems nothing more than a distant memory.

Effects of “banning” bitcoin mining. Bitcoin hash rate new ATH, higher than when the “ban” happened. pic.twitter.com/pY5ea1rCJB
— CZ Binance (@cz_binance) March 25, 2022

An attempt to ban Proof-of-Work cryptocurrency support in the European Union meanwhile failed to gain the support of lawmakers a second time last week.

Hash rate provided by known mining pools sat at around 219 exahashes per second (EH/s), according to data from monitoring resource MiningPoolStats, itself the highest level ever recorded.

Greed is back for the first time since $60,000

Bearish at the bottom and bullish at resistance — it’s a classic market sentiment feature which plays out time and time again.

For the first time in 2022, however, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has laid out just how exuberant the average crypto investor is feeling.

For the first time since just after Bitcoin’s most recent all-time highs of $69,000 in November, the classic sentiment indicator has entered “Greed” territory.

Its transformation, like sentiment itself this month, has been impressive. Just a week ago, it measured the mood as a normalized score of 22/100 — not just “fear,” but “extreme fear.”

Now, it is hot on the way to showing the opposite, and as long-term investors know, sustained rallies tend only to come alongside gradual increases in sentiment.

Big jump up in the Fear and Greed Index today on that $BTC move.

Last time we were this far into Greed territory, price was +$60k.

Live chart: https://t.co/Jr5151icga pic.twitter.com/KZtsava7jZ
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) March 28, 2022

Some of them, however, remain clearly excited to see what happens next.

“The crypto markets on a steady uptrend while the supply shock kicks in. It will only take one bullish event to send this back to all-time highs,” JRNY Crypto argued Sunday.

“Watch how crazy things get when the sentiment goes from fear to greed while supply is limited.”

*Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me*

Bitcoin dips 3.6% from weekly highs — What are the key BTC price levels to watch?

March 23, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

A comedown from its highest levels in a week sees Bitcoin price action hover immediately under short-term support targets.

Bitcoin (BTC) threatened a significant retracement overnight into March 23 as weekly highs saw their first test.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

BTC misses out on "very bullish" daily close

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping from a peak of $43,337 to lows of $41,779 on Bitstamp before recovering.

At the time of writing, the pair traded at around $42,300 — still $1,000 off the highs.

Enthusiasm had been clearly in evidence on Tuesday thanks to increasing publicity focused on Blockchain protocol Terra's apparent $3 billion BTC buy-in.

According to co-founder Do Kwon, the majority of the funds, which were to be used to back Terra's new TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin, had not yet been purchased, leaving room for more potential BTC price squeezes.

Nonetheless, the mood cooled on markets overnight, Bitcoin missing what would have been a "very bullish" daily close by around $200.

#Bitcoin closing the Daily candle above $42.6k would be very bullish
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) March 22, 2022

Analyst Matthew Hyland was confident that the "tide was turning" for Bitcoin, however, among other things pointing to an ongoing breakout attempt for Bitcoin's daily relative strength index (RSI).

Its downtrend, he noted, had been in place since even before November's all-time high.

*BTC/USD with RSI annotated chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/ Twitter*

Trader Credible Crypto meanwhile highlighted a similar level at $42,500 as important to flip.

"42.5k has been broken, now want to see this level established as support if this is a true breakout," he wrote in a Twitter update on the day.

"Meaning, the move up should hold and want to see some consolidation above this level for continuation. Let's see what we get over the next day or two."

European Central Bank sees new balance sheet record

On macro, news that Thailand had decided to ban crypto for payments provided a sour mood from Asia, while in Europe, the European Central Bank's (ECB) balance sheet rose to record highs.

Now at more than €8.7 trillion ($9.59 trillion), markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz began to query whether "the sky's the limit" for ECB asset purchases.

"Only the sky is the limit? ECB Balance Sheet has hit fresh ATH >€8.7tn. Total assets rose by another €13bn as ECB keeps buying bonds despite record-high," he summarized Wednesday alongside a chart from Bloomberg Terminal.

"Eurozone inflation. Balance Sheet now equal to 82% of Eurozone GDP vs. Fed's 37%, and BoJ's 136%."

*ECB balance sheet chart. Source: Holger Zschaepitz/ Twitter*

As Cointelegraph reported, the United States Federal Reserve plans to halt its asset purchases and begin reducing its balance sheet going forward.

Bitcoin network activity down 30% from highs as ‘tepid’ demand mimics mid-2019

February 21, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

2022's bear is 2019's bull as Bitcoin active entities number around 275,000 per day in February.

Bitcoin (BTC) is now seeing "tepid" demand just three months after hitting its latest all-time high, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

In a tweet on Feb. 18, researchers flagged a sea change in Bitcoin on-chain activity compared to just three months ago.

Bitcoin active entities echo 2019 "mini bull peak"

Bitcoin's descent from $69,000 to $33,000 has been accompanied by a widely-publicized crash in interest from mainstream consumers.

Now, the latest data shows that for existing on-chain entities — holders of one or more wallets — the same true.

Each day, the Bitcoin network sees around 275,000 active entities transacting, compared to over 400,000 in November 2021.

That reduction means that daily active entities are now at the same levels as in mid-2019 and even well below the peak of the last halving cycle in December 2017.

"This level of activity is far below bull market highs, indicative of tepid demand from new users," Glassnode commented.

Researchers added that regardless of the cycle phase, the trend is for entity numbers to grow, which they put down to Bitcoin's network effect playing out as forecast.

*Bitcoin daily active entities annotated chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter*

While the activity dip is considerable for such a short space of time, as Cointelegraph reported, wallet numbers are going up only, and those containing 0.01 BTC (around $400) or more now number almost 10 million.

Discussing the Glassnode data, popular Twitter account TXMC argued that even if the entities involved were or are not human, there is still a reason for them to send BTC over the network, thus validating the entity numbers at a given point.

"This level of activity is far below bull market highs, indicative of tepid demand from new users," it argued.

"Up and to the right"

In the latest edition of its "Uncharted" newsletter, meanwhile, Glassnode likewise confirmed that on-chain demand is in a trend of "up and to the right."

Daily transfer volume surged in the middle of last year, and the weekly moving average is now twice that of October 2020 before BTC/USD broke out of its three-year range.

Since January 2021, long-term hodlers — wallets with funds unmoved in at least 155 days — have added 3 million BTC to their balances in another sign of long-term conviction.

"Institutions in the market are a sign of greater adoption," Glassnode co-founders Yann Allemann and Jan Happel added in Twitter comments last week.

*Bitcoin total daily transfer volume annotated chart. Source: Negentropic/ Twitter*

This Bitcoin price metric just hit ‘oversold’ for only the 7th time in 8 years

December 7, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Advanced NVT was already hinting that Bitcoin was "seriously cheap," but has now printed a rare buy flag.

A Bitcoin (BTC) price metric which made BTC “look seriously cheap” at $56,000 is now in rare oversold territory.

In a tweet on Dec. 6, Philip Swift, Philip Swift, creator of analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin, returned to potentially bullish signals coming from Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT Signal.

Advanced NVT deflates in Bitcoin price rout

Advanced NVT calculates whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold at a certain price point using market capitalization and network volume.

In late November, when BTC/USD had already fallen to $56,000, Swift suggested that a bounce was due.

The metric subsequently continued to fall in line with spot price thanks to last Friday’s liquidation cascade. A possible plus, however, lies in the return of “oversold” cues from NVT — something which has only occurred six times since 2015.

“A lot of fear in the market currently, which makes me bullish. Lots of indicators suggest we are near a bottom,” he said.

“Advanced NVT Signal looks at price relative to onchain transactions. It has only been this oversold a few times before, each time resulting in a strong bounce.”

*Bitcoin advanced NVT signal annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/ Twitter*

The strength of such a bounce nonetheless may have already faded, with Bitcoin reversing after around 6% overnight gains to $51,500 on Bitstamp.

Trader to BTC buyers: Wait a week to "avoid chop"

At press time, $51,000 formed a focus, amid heavy indications from commentators that fresh downside could soon enter.

“Buy in low to mid 40's. Not get trapped,” trader and analyst Pentoshi advised Twitter followers.

I can see $BTC short term trading back towards 52k but I think if you wait a few days/week you'll avoid chop. Buy in low to mid 40's. Not get trapped. Don't see a reason to take new longs here atm. Going to wait for a new trade to come to me pic.twitter.com/NS7J0PainD
— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) December 6, 2021

As Cointelegraph reported Monday, meanwhile, there are plenty of reasons to separate spot price action from underlying strength in Bitcoin.

Among them is all-time high hash rate, along with a broad lack of selling — smaller hodlers, by contrast, have been adding to their positions throughout the past week.

Only whales appear to be hedging their bets, as evidenced by exchange flow data.

Bitcoin could ‘drive people nuts’ for months with $53K BTC price ceiling — analyst

December 6, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Investors, not short-term traders, will be the likely beneficiaries of upcoming BTC price moves, popular names agree.

Bitcoin (BTC) may spend "months" ranging between recent $42,000 lows and $53,000 and cause panic in the process, popular analysts warned on Dec. 6.

Discussing the BTC price outlook on Twitter, Scott Melker, known as the Wolf of All Streets, said that ranging behavior could last well into 2022.

Bitcoin price bottoms could sink still deeper

After failing to reclaim even $50,000 after last week's crash, BTC/USD is spawning bearish sentiment this week.

As sentiment sits deep within in the "extreme fear" zone, Melker joined those steering clear of the sky-high short-term price predictions that were previously ubiquitous.

"My general view. >53K again resumes the bullish case. <42K again puts 28K back in play," he summarized.

"Everything between the two numbers now is ranging chop that will drive traders into a panic. People will be extremely bullish at 53K and bearish at 42K if either is reached."

A further post put the timeframe for such price action to play out at "a few months."

"December has a high probability of range-bound chop, the ideal time to take some time off from the charts, make a few well-thought-through trades, and recharge for next year," filbfilb, co-founder of trading platform Decentrader, continued.

Their comments mimic those of fellow popular trader Pentoshi, who made waves on Dec. 6 while acknowledging that Bitcoin could still dip to $30,000.

Wouldn’t be surprised if this happens for $btc. It’s a real possibility. I would be prepared for it https://t.co/Qw4XggiDdV
— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) December 6, 2021

That would place BTC/USD de facto back at its 2021 starting position and over 50% down against the year's all-time highs.

"Trading at a decent discount"

Dec. 6's Wall Street open, meanwhile, had barely any impact on Bitcoin, markets remaining comparatively steady as stocks saw a light move higher.

As critics took aim at Bitcoin's alleged lack of ability to act as a store of value, proponents looked for clues as to whether the market was fairly valued after the sell-off.

For analyst Willy Woo, the on-chain data said it all.

"We're currently trading at a decent discount," he revealed, highlighting the Bitcoin Supply Shock Valuation (SSV) metric.

SSV looks at the last time on-chain demand matched current levels, with the implication being that prices should be higher under current circumstances.

This model does a look back on previous times that #bitcoin had similar on-chain demand.

We're currently trading at a decent discount.

It's a model for investors, not traders who can easily be liquidated well before the model plays out. pic.twitter.com/w9byxBiX6M
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) December 6, 2021

Woo had previously noted that the most recent dip was accompanied by smallscale investors increasing their BTC exposure.

Bitcoin risks lowest weekly close in 2 months but BTC buyers stock up at $53K

November 28, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains attractive for seasoned hodlers, as $50,000 now becomes the point at which confidence could turn to anxiety.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $54,000 on Nov. 28 as the upcoming weekly close showed signs of hitting two-month lows.

Buyers keen at $53,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed a quiet 24 hours for BTC/USD after Friday's $6,000 red candle.

Although quiet into Sunday, the pair nonetheless dipped below a major zone of support on weekly timeframes, opening up the potential for its lowest end-of-week levels since late September.

For trader and analyst Rekt Capital, $55,800 should be reclaimed to reverse this, something which could still "easily" occur.

Here's #BTC on the Weekly timeframe

Now dipping below the green demand area$BTC could still easily Weekly Close above the green box bottom (~$55800) which would require BTC to confirm a break back into its wedging structure

Weekly Close around the corner#Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/xtl9aN06Ta pic.twitter.com/qJkbYpnB9c
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) November 27, 2021

Such price action was still not enough to deter bulls, with large-volume entities from businesses to nation states "buying the dip."

On Sunday, Alex Mashinsky, founder and CEO of crypto lending platform Celsius, confirmed that he had added to both his Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) allocations.

"I bought almost $10m worth of BTC and ETH at the current levels to add to my positions," he revealed to Twitter followers.

"We may see a retest of $53K for BTC and $4k for ETH but these should be short term bottoms with us going back to $70k from here."

Mashinsky added that he would sell 50% of his latest purchases should BTC/USD dive below $50,000.

Separate data compiled by analyst Willy Woo meanwhile reinforced the interest in buying Bitcoin at current levels.

Even excluding corporations and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), large-volume buyers are in evidence this week — in contrast to the atmosphere after similar price dips in 2021.

This one is called "Whales BTFD"

Entities data by @glassnode, adjusted for exchange holdings, corporate treasuries and ETFs by yours truly. pic.twitter.com/Cg92Wo3NxV
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 27, 2021

No gains to be had this weekend

There was thus little reprieve from Friday's cross-market sell-off amid ongoing uncertainty over the latest Coronavirus strain.

As Cointelegraph reported, this inflicted immediate cold feet on both crypto and traditional market sentiment, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index returning to "extreme fear" territory.

Major altcoins thus showed no signs of a rebound as the weekend drew to a close, the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap firmly in the red on weekly timeframes.

ETH/USD managed to stay above the $4,000 mark on Sunday.

*ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin price metric demands ‘strong reaction’ as $56K BTC starts to look ‘seriously cheap’

November 24, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Current limp Bitcoin price performance is not fooling analysts, as Advanced NVT Signal joins those predicting a dramatic BTC renaissance.

Bitcoin (BTC) is “seriously cheap” at $56,000 relative to network activity — and that means only one thing, one analyst says.

In a tweet on Nov. 24, Philip Swift, creator of analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin, highlighted a bull flag on Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT Signal.

Bitcoin "deep into oversold territory"

Advanced NVT uses Bitcoin’s market cap and network volume to determine the extent to which BTC is overbought or oversold at a certain price point.

As Swift explains in an introduction to the metric, it builds on the original NVT, accounting for changes in investor habits as Bitcoin has matured over time.

Advanced NVT is thus the total Bitcoin market cap divided by the 90-day moving average of network transaction volume. Currently, it is “deep into oversold territory,” and when that happens, a price rise soon follows.

“Bitcoin is looking seriously cheap relative to network activity here on high time frames,” Swift wrote.

“Expecting a strong reaction in the not too distant future.”

An accompanying chart shows that Advanced NVT is now at its lowest since the start of 2020 with the exception of that year’s Coronavirus crash and the 2021 miner shutdown in China.

*Bitcoin Advanced NVT Signal chart. Source: Philip Swift/ Twitter*

Old hands remain in control

As Cointelegraph reported, NVT is far from the only on-chain indicator signalling a trend reversal in current conditions.

Relative strength index (RSI) values are likewise hinting at a BTC price rise, while a host of others refuse to flip bearish despite flagging sentiment.

In its latest weekly newsletter, The Week On-Chain, released Tuesday, fellow on-chain analytics firm Glassnode further noted the "unique case" of short-term holders (STHs) controlling the smallest amount of Bitcoin in three years, while spot prices remain relatively near all-time highs.

STH wallets are those which have spent Bitcoin within the past 155 days.

"Low STH supply is typical at the end of bear markets and in early bull markets, usually following long periods of accumulation," analysts wrote.

"Seeing STH supply this low whilst price is near ATHs is a relatively unique case."

*Bitcoin short-term holder supply proportion chart. Source: Glassnode*

Bitcoin clings to $56K as whales keep buying — Watch these BTC price levels

November 19, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Testing times continue for Bitcoin bulls with the trillion-dollar market cap next up for support.

Bitcoin (BTC) is demanding a “slightly bearish” rethink on price action as old support levels give way overnight.

Analysts sounds alarm over open intere

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a low of $55,640 on Bitstamp on Nov. 19.

Capitalizing on its lowest levels in over a month, Bitcoin has failed to bounce significantly since — and now price forecasts are beginning to change with it.

In his latest YouTube update, Filbfilb, an analyst at trading platform Decentrader, warned that 50-day and 100-day moving average (DMA) may be all that can aid bulls.

BTC/USD then fell through the first, leaving just the 100DMA at just above $53,000.

“I’m definitely going to go spot long at $53,000 again,” he told viewers, having said that the chances of the 100DMA protecting price were “reasonably good.”

That level coincides with Bitcoin’s $1 trillion market cap valuation, something which was previously held to be permanent.

Causing problems for Filbfilb and others, meanwhile, is the still high open interest on Bitcoin derivatives in spite of the price comedown.

This, he suspects, is down to traders taking longs — and the result will be either a clean sweep via a rebound, or a “flushing out” of their positions.

Funding rates likewise remained elevated on some major exchanges, indicating expectations of higher prices returning.

*Bitcoin funding rates chart. Source: Coinglass*

Whales (keep) buying the dip

Elsewhere, some large-volume hodlers are putting their money where their mouth is.

According to blockchain data, the third-largest BTC address has continued to buy this week. After increasing its balance by 207 BTC at $62,000, bigger accumulations followed in the form of 1,647 BTC, 700 BTC and 484 BTC purchases.

As Cointelegraph additionally reported, those who bought in over the past six to twelve-month period remain determined not to sell their coins.

Even at all-time highs, selling remained low, with the one-year hodl accounting for the largest proportion of the current Bitcoin supply.

Bitcoin stages ‘picture-perfect rebound’ at $58.5K as crypto liquidations top $875M

November 16, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

One analyst hails a successful retest of monthly support, but nervousness is increasing on the back of 11% daily losses.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered above $60,000 during Nov. 16 after a breakdown saw a trip to near $58,500.

Daily liquidations near $1 billion

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a resurgent BTC/USD as it reversed losses, which at one point topped 11%.

After an overnight comedown accelerated, however, buyer support appeared to return — but not before 24-hour crypto liquidations hit $875 million.

Meanwhile, $58,400 corresponded with Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe’s line in the sand to prevent further corrections.

“If we’re going to drop beneath, then that is going to be painful, and then we’re going to have a swift correction all the way back to the low $50,000 region in which we’re going to test some lower levels,” he warned in his latest YouTube update.

Van de Poppe was a rare cautious voice on the day, with various analysts and market participants still more than satisfied with the current price action.

Twitter account TechDev noted that even at $61,500, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) on daily timeframes had reset to where it was when BTC/USD traded at $40,000.

“BTC successfully retests $58700 as support. Picture-perfect rebound,” Rekt Capital added.

A separate Twitter post compared the arguably stronger reaction from the market to the day’s events than to deeper corrections seen in recent months.

#BTC has pulled back only -15% this month

Remember that in September $BTC retraced -25% before reaching new All Time Highs

This current retrace is shallower compared to the one in September and yet the emotional reaction to it appears to be much larger#Crypto #Bitcoin
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) November 16, 2021

“Double bubble” comparisons return

Charles Edwards, CEO of asset manager Capriole, meanwhile, pointed to “very bullish” readings from his new supply delta metric.

Supply delta is the difference between the BTC supply held by short-term and long-term holders. Now printing a rare bullish streak, it is painting a similar picture to behavior from 2013 — the year famous for Bitcoin’s double top, or “double bubble.”

“Bitcoin Supply Delta looks very bullish. The vast majority of similar readings to today were followed by large price appreciation,” Edwards stated.

“The most similar reading to today, in terms of value, profile and price action, is the 2013 double bubble.”

BTC price analysis