BTC price prediction

BTC price has various reasons to return to $20,000, from a “head and shoulders” pattern to a FUD-induced cascade, Bitcoin analysis warns.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit six-week highs to start October, but some forecasts still see the BTC price returning to $20,000.

While up around 6% since the start of last month and now circling $27,500, Bitcoin is not fooling many with its current price behavior.

Analyst: October “should be bearish” for Bitcoin later on

BTC price strength in recent weeks has many market participants hoping for a push to — and even through — $30,000 resistance.

For some, however, there remains every reason to be cautious.

In X (formerly Twitter) analysis published on Oct. 2, popular trader and market analyst CryptoBullet reiterated that $20,000 is still very much on the radar as a BTC price target.

The latest trip to $28,600, he argued, is now forming the right-hand shoulder of a classic “head and shoulders” chart pattern — with the downside logically due to follow if it completes.

“Second half of October should be bearish imo,” CryptoBullet wrote in part of a subsequent debate.

The idea was built on an August roadmap with a short-term upside target of $28,000 before reversing toward the $20,000 target.

Right Shoulder #Bitcoin https://t.co/OTEyuaVYKx pic.twitter.com/nmMGuJ99Js

— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) October 2, 2023

Elsewhere in the debate, CryptoBullet said that the bottom zone for BTC/USD lay between $19,000 and $21,000.

Not all responses heeded his warning, with fellow popular trader Elizy, in particular, skeptical of the likelihood of such a scenario playing out.

Warning over “distribution” danger

CryptoBullet, however, is far from alone when it comes to fearing that the worst for Bitcoin is not yet over.

Related: Bitcoin traders demand ‘slow grind’ up after BTC price drops over 4%

In one of CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog posts on Sept. 28, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto trading resource Dominando Cripto, compared Bitcoin’s performance between 2020 and 2022.

“Between 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin underwent a notable appreciation, reaching historic highs and capturing global attention. However, this phase was followed by a significant correction that caused prices to plummet, sending the cryptocurrency back to lower levels,” he wrote.

Wedson also suggested that should history repeat, sub-$20,000 levels could resurface. An accompanying chart offered a fractal, which could now be subject to a repeat.

“Now, in 2023, we are once again witnessing Bitcoin achieving over +100% in gains, attracting substantial interest from institutional and retail investors. Nevertheless, the market has recently experienced significant volatility and a downward price trend. This similarity to the past raises questions about whether we are witnessing a repeat of the previous cycle,” he continued.

“The target is $19,500 USD if this fractal holds over the next few weeks, which could result in a series of FUD and negative news in the cryptocurrency space. Furthermore, there is the possibility of a redistribution, where the price threatens significant highs, but institutional profit-taking forces the price down, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market.”

As Cointelegraph reported, other sources, among them trader and analyst Rekt Capital, are demanding that bulls step up to protect support in order to avert a long-term retracement.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin hodlers need to look at November 2024 for clues as to when BTC price will aim for the moon next, says CryptoCon.

Bitcoin (BTC) is about to test hodlers with a “mid cycle lull” before starting a bull run in late 2024, a new BTC price model states.

According to its creator, popular analyst CryptoCon, the “November 28th Cycles Theory” demands the BTC price all-time high in 2025.

Countdown to BTC price “bull run launch”

Amid debate over the nature of the current Bitcoin four-year price cycle, CryptoCon believes that all may be simpler than many imagine when it comes to how BTC/USD behaves at a given time.

Unveiling the November 28th chart on X (formerly Twitter), he delineated the date as a key pivot point in the year, along with a three-week period either side.

“Using 4-year time cycles against my Theory, produces Bitcoins exact behavior in time since its inception. Cycles are centered around the date of the first halving Nov 28th,” he explained.

“Bitcoin price action began at the first bottom October 8th, 2010. This is where cycle curves peak, every 4 years. Tops and bottoms come +/- 21 days from Nov 28th at their appropriate times on the curve. Tops on the upswing, bottoms on the pinnacle.”

The chart describes November 28 as the date Bitcoin sees a “bull run launch” every four years. The last was in 2020, when BTC/USD broke beyond its prior all-time high (ATH) to hit its current $69,000 record a year later.

The next point of interest is thus November 2024. Until then, BTC price action will spend its time in a “mid cycle lull.”

“After Bitcoin bottoms, price makes an early first cycle move (orange) and enters into a mid-cycle lull,” CryptoCon continued.

“This is the longest part of the cycle, where Bitcoin spends time around the median price (half of previous ATH), until the curve bottoms.”

He added that Bitcoin had “almost certainly” seen its early top, referencing the $31,800 local highs from July this year.

A Bitcoin “bull market fakeout”

As Cointelegraph reported, opinions on where BTC price action will go into the 2024 block subsidy halving differ.

Related: Bitcoin halving can take BTC price to $148K by July 2025 — Pantera Capital

Some argue that modest gains will be all that hodlers will see before the event, scheduled for April next year.

In an interview with Cointelegraph this week, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, nonetheless delivered a $46,000 target for the halving, with $35,000 slated for year end.

In his latest newsletter published on Sep. 5, meanwhile, CryptoCon summarized 2023 BTC price behavior as a “bull market fakeout.”

“This makes it appear as if the bull market has begun with the trigger of many signals, but then at some point, price fails to continue,” he wrote.

“This is the most convincing example we’ve seen of this yet. Personally, I think there is still some time to go for that and I am patiently awaiting its completion.”

BTC/USD traded at $26,200 at the time of writing on Sep. 8, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin has the fuel to claw back some lost ground by the end of the year, but hodlers should be prepared for BTC price local lows first, says the DecenTrader co-founder.

Bitcoin (BTC) has a chance to end 2023 at $35,000 despite heading lower in between, veteran analyst Filbfilb believes.

In his latest interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader reveals some BTC price targets that should resonate with the long-term holder base.

Bitcoin faces multiple obstacles to its current uptrend, and the current cycle offers various key differences from those that came before it. It is not just the Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) debacle; the entire macroeconomic environment looks markedly different from just a few years ago.

Filbfilb predicts that the April 2024 block subsidy halving will nonetheless have a cathartic effect on BTC price performance. BTC/USD could even trade as high as $46,000 by that time, but losses are “likely” to come next.

Filbfilb eyes “likely” BTC price dip to low $20,000 range

Cointelegraph (CT): On short timeframes, you recently predicted another BTC price dip to “crush the remaining hopium.” Where do you see the long-term floor?

Filbfilb (FF): This depends on circumstances; as we saw during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, the floor was slightly north of $3,000, so I would expect the lows of around $16,000 seen following the FTX crash to be maintained. However, avoiding a black swan event, somewhere in the low $20,000s seems likely.

CT: Do you still expect a reversal in price behavior in Q4 as miners and smart money “buy the rumor” on the halving?

FF: Based on the previous cycles, we have seen a contraction of new emitted supply to market in advance of the halving. Coupled by increased speculative demand, this dynamic is likely to repeat in my opinion.

CT: Speaking of miners, what’s your stance on price versus hash rate, considering how the latter continues to see new highs?

FF: I’ve not been able to attribute a direct correlation between hash rate and price.

CT: What’s surprised you about BTC price action this year compared to other pre-halving years?

FF: There has been a failure to break the 100-week moving average thus far, which is a notable difference. In the past, this has confirmed the bull market to some extent. Timing-wise, the uptick from the 2022 lows is in line with what we have seen previously.

CT: A lot has been made about the outcome of the Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit last week. How significant do you think the news really is? Do you see a U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF approval on the horizon?

FF: The SEC seemingly has a policy of “delay at all costs,” which has now included unreasonable rejection. If you look at how the room is behaving — i.e., BlackRock et al. putting in a number of filings for ETFs — it would seem highly unlikely that the biggest institutional asset managers will have done little due diligence and would anticipate failure. In my humble opinion, it is a matter of “when” it will be approved rather than “if.”

CT: You’ve called U.S. inflation the “elephant in the room” this cycle — how might this impact Bitcoin post-halving next year?

FF: The longer inflation and rates remain high, the less disposable income retail has to invest. Additionally, the cost of capital has generally increased due to the risk-free rate of return being higher; this means asset allocation toward riskier assets becomes less attractive. The longer this remains the status quo, the less capital will seek investments such as Bitcoin.

CT: What are your preferred noise-free metrics for tracking BTC’s price?

FF: On a high level, directional price momentum, coupled with market positioning (such as long/short ratios, funding rates and open interest), underpins what I am looking at in the market overall when determining shorter-term moves.

CT: What’s your BTC price target for the end of the year and at the 2024 halving?

FF: Assuming no black swan event, around $35,000 by the end of the year and possibly as high as $46,000 some time pre-halving in Q1 2024.

DOGE, XRP stand out among altcoins

CT: Bitcoin aside, are you surprised by the NFT market collapse? Does it have a future?

Related: Bitcoin price metric copies move that last came before -25% FTX crash

FF: I am unsurprised about the NFT collapse. I do think there is some utility in some forms of NFTs, such as for ticketing and music applications; however, massively overpriced works of “art” was never something I could understand.

CT: Are there any altcoins in particular that you think can moon particularly hard in the new cycle?

FF: At the moment, I am mostly focused on Bitcoin; altcoins tend to make their move after the halving. However, I would expect XRP (XRP) to do quite well next cycle due to its legal case with the SEC and effectively playing catch-up in market share. I’d also not rule out Dogecoin (DOGE) doing well once again, particularly if Elon Musk integrates crypto into X.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin chart signals are pointing to an incoming macro bottom level, according to a BTC price metric with a flawless history.

Bitcoin (BTC) may offer investors a rare chance to buy at a support zone with a “100% long hit rate,” new analysis says.

In its latest Update piece on Aug. 29, crypto asset manager Capriole Investments told investors to watch for a BTC price dip to $24,000.

Capriole founder "very confident" in $23,000 BTC price support 

Bitcoin continues to track sideways around $26,000, but there is no shortage of market participants predicting further BTC price downside.

$25,000 remains a popular target, but for Capriole, long-term trend lines with an impressive history are of greater interest.

Chief among them are Bitcoin’s weekly support zone at $24,000 and its so-called “Electrical Price” (EP). This refers to the average miner’s electricity bill per BTC worldwide, and currently sits at just over $23,000.

EP has acted as strong support on long timeframes throughout Bitcoin’s history, with the dip to two-year lows in November 2022 being no exception. In late December last year, EP hit lows slightly above $14,000.

Capriole thus describes EP as a “historically hard price floor and level with a 100% long hit rate.”

“Together these price points give very strong confluence from a fundamental and technical perspective to the opportunity that $23-24K presents, should we get there,” it wrote about the technical weekly level and EP, respectively.

In part of a subsequent X post, Capriole additionally described the trend lines as “promising and rare structures” for Bitcoin “worth paying attention to.”

Continuing, Capriole founder Charles Edwards said that $23,000 should act as “rock solid support.”

“I am feeling very confident in $23K being a rock solid support and an incredible long-term opportunity if we get there in the next few weeks,” he told X subscribers on the day.

“Electrical Cost has a 100% hit rate through Bitcoin's history. It's my favorite long-term Bitcoin metric.”

Bitcoin miner pain on the horizon?

BTC/USD traded close to $26,000 at the Aug. 29 Wall Street open, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

Related: Wen moon? Bitcoin halving cycle hints at Q4 as smart money ‘buys the rumor’

Analyzing miners’ financial buoyancy, James Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, predicted a rerun of BTC price behavior from 2019, as the market laid the foundations of its next bull run.

“Bitcoin miner revenue is currently sitting at $25.5M. Just sitting above the 365SMA of $22.5M,” he noted.

“It looks very reminiscent of the 2019 playbook. Should break below soon.”

Accompanying data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed miners earning less than their yearly average into 2020.

Straten built on findings from Dylan LeClair, senior analyst at digital asset fund UTXO Management, who described the phenomenon as “tradition.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin is giving plenty of longtime market participants reason to forecast a return to its previous cycle's $20,000 all-time high — or worse.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered above $26,000 into the Aug. 20 weekly close as doomsday BTC price targets kept coming.

Analysis: Bitcoin may see new "generational buying opportunity"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed an eerie calm covering BTC/USD over the weekend, with the market down 11% in seven days.

Rattled market observers remained highly cautious, and looking ahead, Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, saw only modest room for improvement.

“I think $25k will eventually breakdown and clear a path to retest support at the 2017 Bull Market Top which was just under $20k, but I don't think we go there in a straight line,” he concluded in X analysis on Aug. 19.

“I'm looking for a retest of $25k support to potentially print a double bottom and provide a good foundation for another exit rally. If that setup presents itself, $28k - 29k range is realistic.”

Alan continued that such a rebound may even hit the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $31,368, and should that occur, it would “add salt to the wound of this week's losses.”

“If/When we get the retest of $25k, my [eyes] are looking at the next series of Lower Lows,” he summarized.

“First would be $24,749 ( @coinbase ) and the next is $19,567 which is not so coincidentally located just below a key R/S flip zone at the 2017 Bull Market Top. Losing that level, paves the way to bearadise and a potential generational buying opportunity.”

Others shared the consensus that $20,000 would be back on the radar should $25,000 fail to act as support.

“Break below $25.3K probably target $24K - $23K for stronger buyback reaction else continuation towards $20K,” popular trader Skew told X subscribers in part of a post on the day.

“Deep sweep below $20K is the extreme end in which would look to be swing long there.”

Skew nonetheless suggested that intraday BTC price action might see a bounce around the weekly close, with $28,500 a potential target should buy-side pressure step up.

BTC price melts through Whale volume

Some less extreme support levels below $25,000 meanwhile came from analytics platform Whalemap, which eyed points of whale buying volume from the past.

Related: Why is the crypto market down today?

Significant pockets of on-chain volume, it noted, still lay at $23,200 and $21,000.

“In case we go even lower,” it commented on a print of its data uploaded to X, adding that $19,200 and $16,600 were other points of interest.

Previous whale support at $28,250 and $26,950 nonetheless failed to hold the market on the way down. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin halving data will not be reflected in the market for a year or more, says Jesse Myers.

Bitcoin (BTC) will only hit six figures after its 2024 block subsidy halving, not before, Bitcoin investor and author Jesse Myers believes.

In an X post on Aug. 15, Myers, who is co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, said that the market will only “price in” the halving post factum.

Markets not "efficient" with Bitcoin halving

Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles are back in focus as the next halving event looms in the first half of next year.

Miners will see the reward earned per block of transactions drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, while the corresponding drop in emission and its impact on supply and demand is getting analysts excited.

Four Myers, however, markets will only bear out those implications after the halving has happened.

“Bitcoin won't surge to $100k before the next halving,” he summarized.

Justification comes in the form of criticism of market intuition. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMF), which states that markets always reflect the true state of a given asset, is “wrong,” Myers claims.

“Instead, the market will price-in the changed reality over the 12-18 months post-halving,” he added.

Current analysis shows that the year before a halving event has seen similar BTC price performance on each occasion.

Candle 4 happens to represent the year of the #BTC Halving

And historically, $BTC tends to retrace early on in a new Candle 4

But after this initial retrace, BTC then recovers and rallies significantly without looking back#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/5blKD1E8n7

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 8, 2023

Halving vs. BTC price: "All very predictable"

That position contrasts with some recent forecasts for how BTC price action will evolve in the coming months and beyond.

Related: Bitcoin risks 15% dip by October, but $100K is due in 2026 — Analysis

Some believe that a breakout is around the corner, with October currently a popular deadline for the Bitcoin bull market to return. In terms of pre-halving price predictions, $100,000 or more is not uncommon.

One of the latest calls for six-figure Bitcoin comes from Robert Kiyosaki, author of the popular book, “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” who this week doubled down on his BTC price prediction.

Historical analysis meanwhile shows that the majority of Bitcoin’s cycle gains occur post-halving rather than in the run-up to one.

After the past three halvings, it took a maximum of 240 days for BTC/USD to hit a new all-time high, trading team Stockmoney Lizards revealed this month.

“It is all very predictable. New all time high will occur shortly after Halving in 2024. Accumulation phase,” it told X subscribers.

Magazine: Deposit risk: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin falling back to $25,000 would mark its “last big dip” before the next BTC price bull run, says Cane Island’s Timothy Peterson.

Bitcoin (BTC) can easily end up below $25,000 next month, says one longtime market observer.

In a new BTC price outlook, Timothy Peterson, founder and investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, put the odds of a dip to local lows at 50/50.

BTC price may see “last big dip” in September

While Bitcoin bulls continue their breakout attempts above $30,000, various popular traders and analysts have their sights on lower levels.

Peterson, well known for his technical insights, now believes that the typical August and September performance may yield a return to the $25,000 mark.

Uploading a chart of monthly performance statistics for BTC/USD to X (formerly known as Twitter), he concluded that a “last big dip” may hit before September is over. Put another way, BTC price downside over the next six weeks or so could top 15%.

“There is a 50% chance that bitcoin will drop below $25,000 before the end of September,” accompanying commentary stated.

“This would be the last big dip before the next big bull run cycle commences.”

As Cointelegraph reported, September is traditionally a “bad” month for Bitcoin bulls. Since 2017, BTC price action has finished the month lower than its starting price every year.

August, meanwhile, is a mixed bag, offering either modest gains or modest losses, with 2017 as a notable exception.

Bitcoin Lowest Price Forward says $100,000 by mid-2026

Continuing, Peterson doubled down on Bitcoin’s bullish outlook.

Related: Bitcoin price can go ‘full bull’ next month if 200-week trendline stays

In addition to predicting a final significant retracement before the bull run, recent analysis gave a deadline of less than 1,000 days — less than three years — for BTC/USD to hit a giant $100,000.

This came courtesy of the “Lowest Price Forward” metric, which delivers price prognoses for specific dates in the future.

Formerly known as a calculator of Bitcoin’s “never look back price,” Its claim to fame lies in correctly predicting Bitcoin’s last ever visit to $10,000 in September 2020.

“If you dismissed Bitcoin’s ‘Lowest Price Forward’ trend because of the dip in 2022, remember that Bitcoin’s price normally dips below the trend after a bear market,” a confident Peterson wrote in an X post on Aug. 8.

“Bear markets are for waiting, not doubting. Bitcoin is less than 1000 days away from $100K.”

Magazine: Deposit risk: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.