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Bitcoin risks ‘swift’ $23K dive after BTC price loses 11% in August

BTC price performance disappoints as Bitcoin comes full circle to finish a grim August for bulls.

Bitcoin (BTC) is headed for a long-term support retest, data suggests, after BTC price action fell into the August monthly close.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price: Roads point to $23,000

Reversing gains seen last week, BTC/USD is back below $26,000 as of Sep. 1, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

Market participants had seen cause for bullishness into the close, with Bitcoin holding a key long-term trendline and preserving $27,000.

A decision by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to delay a slew of Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications forced a rethink, with Bitcoin shedding $1,000 over just two hourly candles.

Now, observers are concerned that even current levels may fail to hold the market up for long.

“On-chain data suggests that $BTC lacks strong support below the $25,400 mark,” popular trader Ali told X (formerly Twitter) subscribers.

“If BTC breaks below this threshold, it could swiftly correct down to $23,340.”
UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) annotated chart. Source: Ali/X

Ali uploaded a chart of the UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) metric from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

This tracks the price at which the current set of transaction outputs was created and functions as a roadmap for likely price support and resistance levels.

A breakdown to $23,000 would not come as a surprise to some, with that target already on the radar for various traders and analysts.

Bitcoin inches toward key support battleground

Continuing, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators delivered a similarly grim picture for BTC/USD on daily (D), weekly (W) and even monthly (M) timeframes.

Related: Bitcoin metric with ‘100% long hit rate’ predicts $23K BTC price floor

Using signals from one of its proprietary trading tools, Trend Precognition, Material Indicators advised that $24,750 needed to hold for bulls to have a chance at clinching a rebound.

“If price moves and holds below $25,350 the W signal will invalidate, however, if support holds above the LL at $24,750 there will be a good foundation to rally from and retest resistance,” part of X commentary explained.

“We will look to the Monthly candle open for a signal from the Trend Precognition algos to gain insight to whether we can expect an extension of the downtrend or a monthly momentum shift to the upside.”
BTC/USD 1-month chart with Trend Precognition signals. Source: Material Indicators/X

Data from CoinGlass meanwhile showed Aug. 31 sparking the largest volume of BTC long liquidations since Bitcoin’s 10% dive earlier in the month. 

These came in at $41 million, with the cross-crypto total at $108 million — still far below the daily tally from two weeks prior.

Crypto liquidations chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Vanguard set to appoint ex-BlackRock ETF chief as next CEO: WSJ

Bitcoin analysts doubt BTC price rally as $23K target gains popularity

Bitcoin is not catching a genuine bid despite the buzz around Grayscale, analysis warns, with BTC price still able to dive lower.

Bitcoin (BTC) drifted toward $27,000 after the Aug. 30 Wall Street open as the dust settled on digital asset manager Grayscale’s legal victory.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC buyer interest remains low

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price cooling volatility which began the day prior, when a positive verdict for Grayscale against United States regulators sparked 7.5% gains.

Bitcoin managed $28,143 on Bitstamp — its highest in almost two weeks — before returning to consolidate lower.

Despite closing the daily candle above two key moving averages, these had yet to return as definitive intraday support, and on the day, analysts were cautious.

In a Quicktake post for on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, contributor MAC_D was among those noting that the Grayscale move had originated on derivatives exchanges.

Despite funding rates remaining fairly neutral, there was a clear absence of genuine buyer interest on spot markets.

“First, looking at the 'Funding Rate', it is not an extreme value, so it is not expected to cause a sharp price correction,” he wrote.

“However, it is difficult to see that the spot exchange led the price increase when the BTC price rose yesterday. The reason is that the 'Trading Volume Ratio (Spot VS. Derivative)' shows that it has decreased rather than increased.”
Bitcoin: Trading Volume Ratio (Spot VS. Derivative) chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Additional data showed trading volumes still below those seen during upticks earlier in 2023.

“Of course, there is a tendency for prices to change significantly even with small trading volumes because the overall liquidity in the cryptocurrency market has decreased,” MAC_D continued.

“However, it seems that there is a need to be a little cautious about the fact that this rally leads to a dramatic rally.”
Bitcoin: Trading Volume (Spot VS. Derivative) chart. Source: CryptoQuant

"Many similarities" to Bitcoin price all-time high

Equally conservative on the long-term outlook was popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.

Related: GBTC Bitcoin ‘discount’ may be gone by 2024 as share price gains 17%

In his latest YouTube update, Rekt Capital suggested that BTC/USD might be printing a copycat move to that seen in 2021 around its current all-time high.

While no new BTC price peak is expected now, the recent tops around $31,000 on the weekly chart and subsequent breakdown are reminiscent of Bitcoin’s performance going into the 2022 bear market.

“We’re seeing many similarities between the double top of 2021 and what we’re seeing right now,” he warned.

Should the similarities play out and BTC/USD produce a full fractal, $26,000 would flip from support to resistance to initiate further downside.

“For the time being, we are seeing a lot of signs really playing into all of this,” Rekt Capital reiterated.

BTC/USD annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Rekt Capital/YouTube

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on prospective targets for a BTC price bottom, with $23,000 becoming increasingly important.

Rekt Capital likewise flagged $23,000 as a prominent level versus the 2022 bear market bottoming structure — an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

“That’s the level that we could see price rebound from,” he added.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Vanguard set to appoint ex-BlackRock ETF chief as next CEO: WSJ

Bitcoin bears ‘in control but exhausted’ as BTC price retakes $29K

Bitcoin stages a recovery toward a key resistance but fails to break through, and BTC price action is giving some cause for optimism.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered above $29,000 on Aug. 8 as one trader eyed a potential breakout already underway.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price teases falling wedge breakout 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed a modest BTC price rebound after it set local lows of $28,670.

Still in a tight range, Bitcoin largely followed United States equities during the Aug. 7 Wall Street trading session.

Despite a lack of enduring momentum in either direction, market participants looked for signals that a return of some sort of trend could already be here.

For popular trader Jelle, these took the form of a potential falling wedge breakout on daily timeframes.

“This current formation has a target of $32,000. Can it break the key resistance?” he queried in part of the day’s analysis.

The wedge in question began at the start of July and marks Bitcoin’s second in as many months, another being in place from April toward the end of June.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Jelle/X (Twitter)

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, called the previous day’s downside a “standard correction.”

“Immediately flipped back, decent daily candle. Let’s see what CPI will bring on Thursday,” he added.

Van de Poppe referenced the main macro event of the week — the July print of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which is traditionally a crypto market volatility catalyst.

On intraday timeframes, the picture was mixed as ever, as a game played out between market makers and takers on exchanges.

“Failure to breakdown forced hands especially from spot takers to be bid especially since spot takers led the sell off in the first place (relating to the spot buying around $29K),” popular trader Skew explained.

Analysis: Bitcoin “close to being oversold”

In a more optimistic market summary, Yann Allemann and Jan Happel, co-founders of on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, suggested that the sub-$28,000 dip had more significance as a local bottom than many realized.

Related: Bitcoin price can go ‘full bull’ next month if 200-week trendline stays

As per the Risk Signal metric, Bitcoin is at its most “high-risk” trading level for several months.

Coupled with a neutral signal on altcoins amid overall volatility near its lowest-ever values, the market is ripe for galvanized bulls to step in, Glassnode argued.

“Bears in control, but getting exhausted,” part of an X (formerly Twitter) post featuring the relevant charts read.

“Bitcoin is close to being oversold, we’re going to tap the liquidity pool (demand) around $28.5k. This could be the reversal we were hoping for.”
Bitcoin, alt metrics comparison. Source: Yann Allemann/Jan Happel/X

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin rejects at 21-day trendline — How low can BTC price go?

BTC price fails to protect the $30,000 mark after a brief resurgence, and Bitcoin traders are not confident of new highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to hold above $30,000 after the July 20 Wall Street open, with one analyst forecasting a return to range lows.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price sinks through $30,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked weak BTC price action after a rejection at the 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

Sitting at $30,400, that SMA provided the day’s high for Bitcoin, with the market then retracing its intraday progress entirely.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 21-day SMA. Source: TradingView

Reacting to the market action, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, warned that lower levels could well come next.

“Not breaking the crucial area, seems like we’re going to have another sweep of the low for Bitcoin,” he told his Twitter followers.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/Twitter

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades added that volatility could return thanks to rising open interest.

“#Bitcoin Has been finding support on the bottom of the range and 4H 200MA/EMA,” he continued in a further tweet about the four-hour 200-period moving average and exponential moving average.

“So far, the bounce has not been very convincing yet and the lower timeframes are extremely choppy. $30.5K and $29.5K remain my levels of interest in the short term.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/Twitter

On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators meanwhile noted the significance of the 21-day SMA, suggesting that a temporary peak may be in for BTC/USD.

“A hard rejection from technical resistance at the 21-Day Moving Avg and more asks stacking at $31k could indicate things are getting toppy for the moment,” part of the July 20 analysis read.

“Bulls need to regroup here and gather the herd if they want a legit chance to stampede past those sell walls.”

A prior print of the Binance BTC/USD order book showed a lack of bid liquidity immediately below the $30,000 mark.

BTC/USD order book data for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/Twitter

Labor market data boosts U.S. dollar

Macroeconomic events on July 20 meanwhile focused on strong tech earnings along with a slowdown in United States jobless claims.

Related: Bitcoin traders say ‘get ready’ as BTC price preps 2023 bull market

The impact on the U.S. dollar was pronounced, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gaining ground to near 101 for the first time in several days.

“So today, Initial Jobless Claims was less than previous & forecasted so the trajectory expected for increasing layoffs is slower (lower is good for USD),” popular trader Skew wrote in part of a response. 

U.S. dollar index 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Cointelegraph previously wrote about the changing dynamics between BTC price performance and DXY strength.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Vanguard set to appoint ex-BlackRock ETF chief as next CEO: WSJ

Bitcoin spending copies history as metric flags ‘1st stage bull market’

Bitcoin on-chain spending is heating up and, so far, is “rhyming” with past BTC price cycles.

Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders are coming back to life as BTC price increases, the latest analysis confirms.

In a tweet on July 13, Philip Swift, creator of on-chain data resource LookIntoBitcoin, revealed classic bull market behavior among “older” BTC investors.

Value Days Destroyed Multiple prints BTC price bull signal 

Bitcoin’s current price cycle may be dividing opinions when it comes to how high BTC’s price could go, but one thing is for sure: Hodler behavior is the same.

Thanks to BTC/USD more than doubling in 2023, on-chain spending velocity is up, indicative of profit-taking activity.

Uploading a chart of the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple, Swift suggested that the current cycle barely differs from all previous ones in this regard.

“Increased onchain spending volume showing where we are in the cycle right now,” part of an accompanying Twitter commentary stated.

“History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes.”

VDD is based on the extant Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which measures periods of inactivity each time an amount of BTC moves on-chain. It takes CDD data and factors in the current BTC price, and its multiple then compares the 30-day result with the 365-day average.

“It is able to highlight when older coins begin to rapidly enter the market to be sold,” Swift explains in an instructional guide on LookIntoBitcoin.

“This typically happens when longer-term participants look to take profits as price accelerates up in major bull market cycles.”

The VDD Multiple currently measures 1.32, narrowly behind its 2023 peak of 1.37 seen in April. For Swift, this is a telltale sign of a “1st stage bull market.”

Bitcoin VDD Multiple annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/Twitter

Reacting, Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at data firm Glassnode, called the findings “remarkable.”

“It is remarkable how consistent the cycles are. Humans reacting the same, given similar stimulus,” he responded.

“This time is indeed, not different.”

Not just Bitcoin diamond hands

Glassnode data, meanwhile, underscores how tempting it might be for various hodler classes to cash out at current prices.

Related: Bitcoin bulls ‘have work to do’ after XRP price spikes 104%

Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio for long-term and short-term holders (LTHs and STHs, respectively) shows both types of investors considerably in the black.

LTH coins — defined as coins dormant for at least 155 days — are on aggregate worth 1.52 times more than when they last moved. For the STH equivalent, the number is 1.12.

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on the increasing sway that STHs have over BTC price action.

Bitcoin LTH, STH MVRV vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Glassnode

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Vanguard set to appoint ex-BlackRock ETF chief as next CEO: WSJ

Bitcoin ‘Burj Khalifa’ fakeout repeats as BTC price spikes to $31K

BTC price gets a $31,000 boost, but like last week, Bitcoin bulls fail to hold it — is this classic "re-accumulation?"

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a fresh breakout attempt into July 11 as the battle for yearly highs stayed hot.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

$31,000 reappears in BTC price "leverage crunch"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price briefly passing $31,000 before the July 10 daily close.

In a copycat move, seemingly with last week’s snap higher for inspiration, BTC/USD managed to approach resistance before momentum waned, subsequently falling back over $800.

Some form of continuation did set in thereafter, and at the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $30,500.

For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, the overnight move had all the hallmarks of a “leverage crunch.”

“The markets just continues chopping,” he told Twitter followers in his latest update.

“Bitcoin had a leverage crunch in the past 24 hours, taking out all the highs & going back to the start in one go. The only difference between now and Thursday? No new lows have been made. $30,200 supporting. Don't get chopped out!”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/Twitter

Popular trader Crypto Daan compared recent behavior with the “Bart Simpson” style chart features from before, where BTC price would spike to a plateau and hold there, only to retrace the full run later. Currently, however, Bart has been replaced with a structure reminiscent of the Burj Khalifa.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile flagged $30,600 as the level to flip.

“BTC is now pressing past the ~$30600 Ascending Triangle resistance. But it's key to note that $BTC has pressed past this level before only to form an upside wick,” he said during the overnight run to $31,000.

“So BTC needs to turn the ~$30600 into support in the coming days for BTC to confirm its breakout.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

"Re-accumulation" as usual

Bitcoin nonetheless remained in a familiar range in play for multiple weeks.

Related: CPI meets low BTC supply — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, "The Week On-Chain," analytics firm Glassnode suggested that this was characteristic of Bitcoin price cycles.

"Bitcoin data often displays strangely repetitive patterns cycle after cycle. In the 2021-22 cycle, the $30k price level formed somewhat of a 'mid-point', and was tested several times both from above and below," it noted.

"A very similar level was observed in 2013-16 around the $425 level, and again in 2018-19 at approximately $6.5k."
Bitcoin Cycle Mid-point Comparison chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

Glassnode added that "re-accumulation" was the tag that best fits the nature of current BTC price action.

Magazine: Should you ‘orange pill’ children? The case for Bitcoin kids books

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Vanguard set to appoint ex-BlackRock ETF chief as next CEO: WSJ

BTC price remains ‘undoubtedly bullish’ as $30K Bitcoin buyers emerge

Bitcoin may be back in a familiar range after snap volatility, but the picture is "undoubtedly bullish" for BTC price, one trader says.

Bitcoin (BTC) teased more rangebound moves on July 7 as traders recovered from a day of volatility.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price gets a bid after volatile 24 hours

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action hugging $30,000 overnight.

Bitcoin bulls had hoped that new yearly highs the day prior would allow BTC/USD to exit its months-long trading range for good, but ended up disappointed.

The largest cryptocurrency saw rejection at $31,500, falling below the $30,000 mark just hours later to challenge the lower part of the range.

Looking ahead, traders thus reverted to risk-off mode in the short term.

Popular trader Jelle noted that relative strength index (RSI) values had come full circle on 4-hour timeframes, effectively canceling out the previous hype.

“Bitcoin - 4h RSI almost fully reset, as price made its way towards the local range lows. I'm not expecting much volatility over the weekend, likely just more rangebound PA,” he told Twitter followers.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart with RSI. Source: TradingView

Fellow trader Skew nonetheless noted what appeared to be solid buyer interest at the overnight lows near $29,700.

He added that BTC price trajectory had suffered at the hands of “aggressive” short selling after $31,500 had been hit.

Bitcoin "undoubtedly bullish"

Longer-term perspectives likewise continued the overall bullish narrative, with short-term retracements and sideways movement below resistance a necessary hurdle to overcome.

Related: Bitcoin analysis agrees BTC price may stall at $35K

Among them was that of TraderKoz, who like various other market participants dispelled fears over a deeper comedown challenging Bitcoin's uptrend.

"With a lot of people talking about shorter-term pullbacks, it's important to keep the bigger picture in mind and not lose focus," he argued on July 6.

"Whether we pullback to 28k, 29k, or wherever else, this weekly chart is undoubtedly bullish (in my opinion). And I will be looking to bid dips."

Prior analysis acknowledged that such a pullback zone may be too "ideal," implying that those waiting for it may thus get left behind.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Vanguard set to appoint ex-BlackRock ETF chief as next CEO: WSJ

BTC price abruptly dips below $30K as Bitcoin daily candle turns sour

Bitcoin bulls' joy does not last long as new yearly highs get swapped out for a trip to new July lows.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued snap volatility after the July 6 Wall Street open as yearly highs gave way to a comedown.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin suddenly falls to new July lows

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC price action as it seesawed around the $30,000 mark.

Bitcoin had surged to its highest levels since mid-2022 earlier in the day, but the party ended up short lived as the largest cryptocurrency gave back all its gains.

BTC/USD even set new July lows on Bitstamp, so far bottoming at $29,925.

As a “scalper’s dream” came true on the charts, traders took a step back to see what would happen next.

Popular trader Jelle was among those eyeing a potential return to the $28,000 range, which he suggested would be a suitable buy-in point.

Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro argued that the move to $30,000 from below had been “mostly spot” buying, with derivatives traders catching up to allow for the sweep of range highs.

“Lows are getting taken again,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, wrote in part of ongoing Twitter commentary.

“Needs to flip back up here, otherwise $28,500 scenario seems likely for Bitcoin. Markets expecting a rate hike due to positive unemployment data.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/Twitter

Van de Poppe referenced strong United States employment data released prior to the Wall Street open, which boosted already high market expectations that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates again later in July.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, those expectations stood at nearly 95% at the time of writing.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Crypto liquidations still far from extremes

With open interest getting wiped on the return below $30,000, overall liquidations nonetheless remained cool.

Related: Bitcoin analysis agrees BTC price may stall at $35K

According to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, combined long and short liquidations on BTC stood at $43 million for July 6. Cross-crypto liquidations totaled around $120 million.

Crypto liquidations data (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Magazine: How smart people invest in dumb memecoins: 3-point plan for success

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Vanguard set to appoint ex-BlackRock ETF chief as next CEO: WSJ

Bitcoin traders hope to ‘buy the dip’ as BTC price heads toward $30K

BTC price action teases a slow comedown to support, with Bitcoin dip-buyers at the ready.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed lower into the July 5 Wall Street open as a risk-off mood entered United States equities.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price begins hitting dip-buying targets

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD tapping multi-day lows of $30,280 on Bitstamp.

BTC price action continued a sideways trading pattern within a larger range in place practically since mid-June.

With no discernible progress toward breaking topside resistance, Bitcoin traders hoped that a sweep of the lows would provide the fuel bulls needed.

Popular trader Crypto Ed had his eye on the area at $30,000 or just below on the day.

“We're heading there, will look for reaction from that level,” he wrote in part of Twitter commentary.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Ed/Twitter

Fellow trader Jelle meanwhile looked for an opportunity to “buy the dip” nearer $28,000 — already a popular target for doing so.

“As Bitcoin's daily bearish divergence plays out, I see a potential hidden bullish divergence shaping up,” he revealed alongside an explanatory chart.

“If this ends up as just a shallow pullback, that could just provide the juice we need to break through $32,000 once and for all.”

The chart showed Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) printing the bearish divergence referred to.

BTC/USD annotated chart with RSI. Source: Jelle/Twitter

Bitcoin "bullish market structure" remains

There was little sign of panic despite the lack of upside momentum.

Related: Bitcoin analysis agrees BTC price may stall at $35K

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, following a strong monthly close, called intraday performance "nothing to panic about."

"Personally i am long while we are above $28,000 as we had a super good entry," trader Crypto Tony continued.

"If you are not yet in a position, i would wait for this dip i am looking for, or a flip of $31,000 resistance zone into support. Those are your two triggers for today."
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/Twitter

Daan Crypto Trades likewise reiterated that the bullish status quo was still valid.

"On the lower timeframes, the bullish market structure is still in tact," part of his latest analysis read.

"I would consider a 29.5K retest if $BTC were to lose the mid range. Until then, liquidity sits at 31.4-31.5K."
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/Twitter

Magazine: How smart people invest in dumb memecoins: 3-point plan for success

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Vanguard set to appoint ex-BlackRock ETF chief as next CEO: WSJ

Bitcoin analysis agrees BTC price may stall at $35K

BTC price will have trouble breaking above $35,000, various analysts warn, as major resistance appears on Binance.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls face a tough task to bring BTC price action past $35,000, fresh analysis predicts.

In its latest market update on July 5, trading firm QCP Capital flagged the mid-$30,000 range as a potential cooling-off point for the Bitcoin bull market.

Bitcoin homes in on post-FTX rally peak

With BTC price stagnating around $30,000, concerns are mounting that the majority of its gains have already materialized.

The area between $35,000 and $40,000 is now particularly popular among market participants seeking to catch a local top, and QCP is one of them.

“Tactically (short-term), our favoured trade to play this is selling end-Sep 33k to 35k calls, and using the premiums to buy 30k puts,” it summarized about its plans for H2 trading.

QCP highlighted incoming resistance for the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator — designed to measure price strength at given levels during a market trend — at $35,000.

“The top-side levels work well as any rally from here would be considered the ending 5th wave from the November FTX lows,” it continued.

“The 33-35k level is also where we see wedge resistance as well as MACD hitting 3-year triangle resistance.”
BTC/USD charts with MACD triangle. Source: QCP Capital

The update also referenced a cooling macroeconomic environment potentially offering few volatility cues for markets.

The United States Federal Reserve remains hawkish, and officials have maintained that further interest rate hikes will come this year despite inflation showing a consistent downtrend.

“On the macro side, the Fed looks locked into another hike this month (although this is largely priced by markets), and inflation appears likely to stagnate around 3-4% until year-end, with positive base effects from the oil price decline ending this quarter, and high frequency rent prices turning back up,” it explained.

“This means that while falling inflation has been getting the market excited, for the Fed with their 2% inflation target blinkers on - its close but probably still not enough for rate cuts.”

When it comes to the principal catalyst for BTC price strength over the past month — the potential U.S. approval of the first Bitcoin spot-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) — there is likewise no imminent decision due, QCP added.

$30 million Binance ask sparks concerns

Elsewhere, traders on the day continually raised the possibility of a fresh BTC price correction.

Related: Bitcoin analyst flags $32.5K launchpad zone for BTC price

William Clemente, a co-founder of Reflexivity Research, revealed data showing that futures traders were far from universally bullish on Bitcoin.

Keith Alan, a co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, said he was “expecting a pullback” as a new block of resistance appeared on the Binance order book at $36,000.

“Not sure bulls will make it to $36k, but don’t think this rally is over yet. I could be wrong. Watching charts for clues,“ part of the commentary stated alongside a chart showing the $30 million ask wall.

BTC/USD order book data on Binance. Source: Keith Alan/Twitter

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading near $30,800 at the time of writing.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Magazine: How smart people invest in dumb memecoins: 3-point plan for success

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Vanguard set to appoint ex-BlackRock ETF chief as next CEO: WSJ