Bitcoin Difficulty Surges 4.68%, Taps New All-Time High; Metric Set to Surpass 40 Trillion

January 29, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Bitcoin Difficulty Set to Rise 3.82% to All-Time High of 39 Trillion Following Recent Increase

January 27, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: ETH price risks 20% drop if key support level breaks

January 24, 2023 Coin Telegraph

ETH price has repeatedly failed to break above a key trendline resistance and now Ethereum risks losing a strong technical support as well.

Ether's (ETH) rally versus Bitcoin (BTC) is not only showing signs of exhaustion, but is also in danger of breaking below a key technical support level.

ETH slides vs. BTC in second half of January

The ETH/BTC pair declined nearly 9.25% on Jan. 24 from its local top of 0.0779 BTC established on Jan. 11. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin is slightly outpacing Ether in USD terms, rising 38% versus 35%, respectively.

*ETH/BTC daily candle price chart. Source: TradingView*

Interestingly, Ether's pullback versus Bitcoin has landed its price at the bottom of its EMA ribbon range, as shown below.

*ETH/BTC weekly candle price chart. Source: TradingView*

The EMA ribbon indicator shows numerous exponential moving averages of increasing timeframe on the same price chart. Dropping below the ribbon range increases an asset's likelihood of seeing an extended down-move.

So in other words, breaking lower would increase its possibility of declining by more than 20% from its current price levels.

Conversely, rising above the ribbon range raises the asset's chances of a broader rally.

Ethereum price capped by key descending trendline

This week, ETH/BTC dropped to the 55-week exponential moving average (the red wave) — a bottom wave — of its EMA Ribbon indicator, as shown below. Buyers took control near the 55-week EMA, prompting Ether to recover a mere 0.35% versus Bitcoin to 0.0708 BTC on Jan. 24.

But now, the likelihood of retesting the EMA ribbon bottom is high due to a multi-month descending trendline resistance (black trendline in the chart below), where sellers have been more active as of late.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart focusing on descending trendline resistance. Source: TradingView*

Therefore, one cannot rule out of the possibility of ETH/BTC breaking below the EMA Ribbon range, similar to how the pair did in May 2022 in the wake of the Terra collapse.

Back then, Ether fell by over 25% versus Bitcoin to 0.0490, a level coinciding with its 200-week EMA (the blue wave).

Therefore, if a similar breakdown occurs in the coming weeks, the ETH/BTC pair may test the 200-week EMA near 0.0550 BTC as its primary downside target, or roughly a 20% price drop from current levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cathie Wood: Ark dumps 500K GBTC shares, adds Coinbase stock as Bitcoin recovers 40%

January 23, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Ark Invest

Ark's GBTC weight in the portfolio actually increased despite the fund selling 500,000 shares in the past month.

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest offloaded a chunk of its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares since November's Bitcoin (BTC) price lows, the latest data shows.

Cathie Wood's Ark short-term cautious on GBTC

Ark Invest added 450,272 GBTC shares worth $4.5 million to its ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) in November 2022. At the time, GBTC was trading in the $7.46-$9.48 range versus $12.25 in January 2023.

GBTC price, of course, recovered alongside Bitcoin, rising roughly 40% from its November lows. The recovery in January also helped reduce the GBTC "discount" from nearly 50% to 40%, according to YCharts.

*GBTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Interestingly, the share price rebound coincided with a reduction in ARKW's GBTC holdings by 500,000 shares, suggesting profit taking in the short ter.

*GBTC shares (purple) in Ark's ETF versus its price (orange). Source: Cathiesark.com*

Moreover, Ark's reduction in shares since November appears in line with its officially "bearish view" on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, as mentioned in its December report, which stated that:

"The Digital Currency Group (DCG) appears to be one of the biggest questions marks in the crypto industry at this time."

The company also expressed concerns about Genesis Global, a cryptocurrency lender owned by DCG. Genesis filed for bankruptcy while claiming $1 billion to $10 billion in liabilities to over 100,000 creditors.

Meanwhile, Grayscale has been unable to convert its Bitcoin trust into an ETF following rejections from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). As Cointelegraph reported, an approval from the SEC could reset GBTC's discount to zero.

Nonetheless, as of Jan. 23, GBTC's share weight in Ark's portfolio has actually increased to 0.52% compared to its November 2022 low of 0.35%.

*GBTC shares' weight (purple) across Ark ETFs. Source: Cathiesark.com*

Ark adds $17.6M in Coinbase stock

Ark's selling of GBTC shares in the past weeks coincided with accumulation of Coinbase (COIN) shares.

Cathie Wood's ARKW added 320,000 COIN shares (about $17.6 million) in 2023. As a result, the Coinbase stock's weight in Ark Invest's combined ETF portfolios has reached nearly 3.62% on Jan. 23 versus 2.73% at the start of this year.

*COIN shares (purple) in Ark's ETF versus its price (orange). Source: Cathiesark.com*

Overall, Ark appears to be only increasing its exposure to the Bitcoin market, particularly as Wood is well known for her consistent $1 million BTC price prediction by 2030.

Can the GBTC price rally continue?

Similarly, Greenery Financial, an investment strategy firm, confirmed that it had shifted its GBTC exposure to ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) due to the above-mentioned risks around DCG.

"Any bad news, be it Cathie Wood selling out of GBTC or DCG going bankrupt, will spark the same fears and doubt - of uncertainty - and likely cause an expansion of the discount once again," the firm warned in its SeekingAlpha note, saying:

"With Bitcoin having no real catalyst in the short term and plenty of potential downside catalysts, there are plenty of risks here from the NAV side as well."

Nonetheless Bitcoin and GBTC prices may keep on rallying through Q1 from a technical perspective.

On the daily chart, GBTC has reclaimed its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave in the chart below) near $9.68 as support.

Upward momentum could see it test the 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $15 if it continues to float above the 50-day EMA wave, similar to what happened in March-April 2022.

The technical upside target falls in line with what Pat Tschosik, senior portfolio strategist at Ned Davis Research, predicts about the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

He argues that GBTC price could not only double by mid-2023, but also narrow the extant discount gap with Bitcoin's spot price.

“We recommend GBTC…as a way to play Bitcoin because it has a ‘potential NAV kicker rebate,’ which not only means it would go up if Bitcoin goes up, but also closing its current large 35% rebate on NAV,” Ned Davis Research said in a note to clients.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum price technicals hint at 35% gains versus Bitcoin in 2023

January 18, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Ethereum market dominance has doubled since the lunch of its staking contract in December 2020 as ETH price eyes levels not seen in five years versus Bitcoin.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), could grow by 35% versus Bitcoin (BTC) this year to hit 0.1 BTC for the first time since 2018 as it forms a classic bullish continuation pattern.

Ethereum price must first break key resistance

Dubbed an ascending triangle , the pattern forms when the price fluctuates inside a range defined by rising trendline support and horizontal trendline resistance. It typically resolves after the price breaks out in the direction of its previous trend.

On a weekly chart, the ETH/BTC pair has been painting an ascending pattern since May 2021. The Ethereum token eyes a breakout above the pattern's horizontal trendline resistance near 0.0776 BTC. Breaking this level could then see the price rally by as much as the triangle's maximum height.

In other words, the ETH/BTC pair could reach the next big resistance level at 0.1 BTC in 2023, or 35% from the current price levels.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Nonetheless, it is important to mention that ETH/BTC has attempted to break above the triangle's resistance trendline eight times since May 2021. The attempts included two major breakouts in November 2021 and September 2022, which saw the pair rallying 14% and 9%, respectively.

Both rallies fizzled out inside the 0.082 to 0.085 BTC area, followed by extreme price corrections that took ETH/BTC back inside the triangle range. Given this multi-year hurdle, the pair could face stiff resistance inside the 0.082 to 0.085 BTC range, even if it breaks above the triangle.

Such a move would risk crashing ETH toward the triangle support, which coincides with its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA), represented by the red line in the chart above, near 0.070 BTC, down nearly 6% from the current price levels.

ETH "deflation" narrative

Ether’s bullish setup versus Bitcoin appears as ETH dominance has doubled versus other crypto assets in the past few years.

Notably, ETH’s market capitalization has risen to nearly 20.5% of the entire crypto market valuation in January 2023, from about 10% in December 2020, when the Ethereum network started its transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) with the launch of a dedicated staking smart contract.

*ETH.D weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView*

Becoming a PoS blockchain has brought two key changes to Ethereum’s economy. First, users temporarily lock away a portion of their Ether holdings into Ethereum’s PoS smart contract to earn yield. And second, the Ethereum network has started burning some transaction fees.

Both changes have had a deflationary impact on overall supply. As a result, the Ethereum network now regularly produces fewer Ether tokens than are taken out of circulation, which theoretically makes ETH a “deflationary” asset.

*ETH supply change since the Ethereum PoS upgrade in September 2022. Source: UltraSound.Money*

The ETH/BTC price has grown nearly 250% since December 2020 despite still being down roughly 50% from its all-time highs witnessed in 2017.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin could see $25K by March 2023 as U.S. dollar prints ‘death cross’ — analysis

January 16, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's price recovery in 2023 has witnessed minimal institutional buying, casting doubt on whether BTC will rally beyond $25,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) shows the potential of stretching its ongoing price recovery to $25,000 by March, based on a mix of bullish technical and macro indicators.

Bitcoin price exits descending channel range

First, Bitcoin's potential to hit $25,000 comes from its exit from a prevailing descending channel range.

A bull run or bull trap?
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) January 16, 2023

Notably, the BTC price broke out of the range late last week while accompanying a rise in its trading volumes. The cryptocurrency's move upside also pushed the price above its resistance confluence, comprising a psychological price ceiling of $20,000 and its 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA; the green wave) near $19,500, as shown below.

*BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Coinbase). Source: TradingView.com*

Breaking three resistance levels with strong volumes shows traders' conviction about an extended price rally. Should it happen, Bitcoin's next upside target appears at its 200-week EMA (the yellow wave) at around $25,000 — a 20% rise from current price levels.

Dollar forms a "death cross"

Bitcoin's bullish technical outlook appears against the backdrop of a relatively weaker U.S. dollar, down due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates over lowering inflation.

The two assets have moved inversely to each another mostly since March 2020. As of Jan. 16, the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar index (DXY), a barometer to gauge the greenback's strength versus top rivaling currencies, was -0.83, according to TradingView.

*BTC/USD and DXY correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

A traditional technical setup sees more losses for the dollar ahead.

Dubbed the "death cross," the setup appears when an asset's 50-period moving average crosses below its 200-period moving average. For the dollar, the death cross shows its weakening momentum, meaning its short-term trend has been underperforming its long-term direction.

*DXY daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

"Expecting more downside in the mid to long term," independent market analyst Crypto Ed said about the dollar, adding:

"Risk on assets should bounce more on that. Or better said: I expect BTC to break its bearish cycle as the big run in DXY is finito."

Not a long-term Bitcoin price rally

Bitcoin has risen 30% above $20,000 in 2023 so far. But on-chain data shows that the buying trend lacks support from institutional investors.

For instance, the total amount of Bitcoin held by digital assets holdings such as trusts, ETFs, and funds has been declining during the coin's price increase in recent months, according to CryptoQuant's Fund Holdings index.

*Bitcoin fund holdings. Source: CryptoQuant*

In addition, no unusual transactions occurred on-chain but on crypto exchanges, per the comparisons made between CryptoQuant's Token Transferred and Fund Flow Ratio metrics.

*BTC/USD versus Token Transferred (orange) and Fund Flow Ratio (blue). Source: CryptoQuant*

The Token Transferred metric shows the number of coins transferred in a specific timeframe. While the Fund Flow Ratio represents the ratio of coin transfers involving the exchange to the overall coin transfers network-wide.

"Usually at the bottom, institutional investors want to buy quietly through OTC trading," noted market analyst MAC_D, adding:

"This trading was simply actively traded only on the exchange, and no unusual transactions occurred on the on-chain [...] The current institutional investors have remained calm and just watching. OTC trading will be brisk when they expect a full-fledged uptrend turn."

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price bottom takes shape as ‘old coins’ hit a record 78% of supply

November 2, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Analysis

Bitcoin’s long-term holders’ NUPL metric has dropped to levels that coincided with market bottoms thrice since November 2011.

Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the crypto market have been in a bear market for almost a year. The top cryptocurrency has seen its market valuation plummet by more than $900 billion in the said period, with macro fundamentals suggesting more pain ahead.

Another bear cycle produces more BTC hodlers

But the duration of Bitcoin’s bear market has coincided with a substantial rise in the percentage of BTC’s total supply held by investors for at least six months to one year.

Notably, the percentage of coins held for at least a year has risen from nearly 54% on Oct. 28, 2021, to a record high of 66% on Oct. 28, 2022, data shows.

This evidence suggests that long-term investors are increasingly looking at Bitcoin as a store of value, asserts Charles Edwards, founder of digital asset fund Capriole Investments.

“Despite the worst year in stocks and bonds in centuries, Bitcoiners have never held on to more Bitcoin,” the analyst noted while highlighting how the floor and ceiling in Bitcoin held for the long term have been increasing after each cycle.

*Bitcoin hodl waves featuring long-term BTC holding highs and floors. Source: Glassnode/Capriole Investments*

Hodler data hints at Bitcoin’s price bottom

Additionally, Glassnode’s research shows that the Bitcoin tokens held for at least five to six months are less likely to be sold. The number of these so-called “old coins” typically rises during bear markets, highlighting accumulation by the patient, long-term investors as short-term investors sell.

The behavioral difference is visible in the chart below, where the downtrend in Bitcoin’s price coincides with a persistent decline in the number of “younger coins” and an increase in the number of coins inactive for at least six months, or “old coins.”

*Bitcoin’s percent young (red) vs. old (blue) supply. Source: Glassnode*

As of Oct. 31, the old coins comprise nearly 78% of the Bitcoin supply in circulation versus younger coins’ 22%, thus reducing the likelihood of intense sell-offs while forming a potential market bottom.

Moreover, on-chain data tracking Bitcoin’s price and its long-term holders’ (LTH) net unrealized profits and losses (NUPL) hints at a similar scenario.

*Bitcoin entry-adjusted LTH-NUPL. Source: Glassnode*

Notably, Bitcoin’s entry-adjusted LTH-NUPL has entered the capitulation zone (red) that has coincided with the end of previous bear markets, as shown above. That includes the strong bullish reversals witnessed in November 2011, January 2015 and December 2018.

As Cointelegraph reported, MicroStrategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has also reiterated its commitment to continue buying BTC for the long term.

“We have a long-term time horizon, and the core business is not impacted by the near-term Bitcoin price fluctuations,” explained MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum flashes a classic bullish pattern in its Bitcoin pair, hinting at 50% upside

October 31, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The formation of a bullish trading pattern suggests that the ETH/BTC pair could be on the verge of a trend reversal.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), looks poised to log a major price rally versus its top rival, Bitcoin (BTC), in the days leading toward early 2023.

Ether has a 61% chance of breaking out versus Bitcoin

The bullish cues emerge primarily from a classic technical setup dubbed a “cup-and-handle” pattern. It forms when the price undergoes a U-shaped recovery (cup) followed by a slight downward shift (handle) — all while maintaining a common resistance level (neckline).

Traditional analysts perceive the cup and handle as a bullish setup, with veteran Tom Bulkowski noting that the pattern meets its profit target 61% of all time. Theoretically, a cup-and-handle pattern’s profit target is measured by adding the distance between its neckline and lowest point to the neckline level.

The Ether-to-Bitcoin ratio (or ETH/BTC), a widely tracked pairing, has halfway painted a similar setup. The pair now awaits a breakout above its neckline resistance level of around 0.079 BTC, as illustrated in the chart below.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring a cup and handle. Source: TradingView*

As a result, a decisive breakout move above the cup-and-handle neckline of 0.079 BTC could push Ether’s price toward 0.123 BTC, or over 50%, by early 2023.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring cup-and-handle breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

Time to turn bullish on ETH?

Ether’s strong interim fundamentals compared with Bitcoin further improve its possibility of undergoing a 50% price rally in the future.

For starters, Ether’s annual supply rate fell drastically in October, partly due to a fee-burning mechanism called EIP-1559 that removes a certain amount of ETH from permanent circulation whenever an on-chain transaction occurs.

*Ethereum supply rate post-Merge. Source: Ultra Sound Money*

XEN Crypto, a social mining project, was mainly responsible for raising the number of on-chain Ethereum transactions in October, leading to a higher number of ETH burns, as Cointelegraph previously covered .

Over 2.69 million ETH (approximately $8.65 billion) has gone out of circulation since the EIP-1559 update went live on Ethereum in August 2021, according to data from EthBurned.info.

It shows that the more clogged the Ethereum network becomes, the higher Ether’s probability of entering a “deflationary” mode gets. So, a depleting ETH supply may prove bullish, if the coin’s demand rises simultaneously.

In addition, Ethereum’s transition to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism via “the Merge” has acted as an Ether-supply sucker, given that each staker — whether an individual or a pool — is required to lock away 32 ETH in a smart contract to earn annual yields.

The total supply held by Ethereum’s PoS smart contract reached an all-time high of 14.61 million ETH on Oct. 31.

*Ethereum 2.0 total value staked. Source: Glassnode*

In contrast, Bitcoin, a proof-of-work (PoW) blockchain that requires miners to solve complex mathematical algorithms to earn rewards, faces persistent selling pressure.

In other words, there is a comparatively higher selling pressure for Bitcoin versus Ether.

ETH/BTC needs to break the range resistance

Ether’s road to a 50% price rally versus Bitcoin has one strong resistance area midway, acting as a potential joy killer for bulls.

In detail, the 0.07 BTC–0.08 BTC range has served as a strong resistance area since May 2021, as shown below. For instance, the December 2021 pullback that started after testing the said range as resistance resulted in a 45% price correction by mid-June 2022.

A similar pullback could have ETH test the 0.057–0.052 range as its primary support target by the end of this year or early 2023.

Ethereum is ahead of Bitcoin this rally — But ETH price still risks 20% crash against BTC

October 26, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Ether has entered a bearish range that preceded a 35% price crash in the April–May 2022 session.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), recorded better gains than Bitcoin (BTC) over the past 24 hours despite the latter finally rising above the key $20,000 level.

Ether beats Bitcoin in risk-on rally

On the daily chart, Ether jumped approximately 14% to reach its weekly high of $1,554 (data from Binance) on Oct. 26. Bitcoin underwent a similar rally, but its week-to-date profits are just 6% by comparison.

The ETH/BTC pair gained around 8%, climbing as high as 0.075 BTC on Oct. 26.

*ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The boom across the top crypto assets has been synchronous with the United States stock market’s winning streak since Oct. 24. It also came on the backdrop of a weaker U.S. dollar index, which has been typically trading inversely to the crypto market since March 2020.

Bear fractal alarm

ETH/BTC’s latest price rally has taken it to a range that preceded a 35% correction in the April–May 2022 session (marked as “R1” in the chart below) and was instrumental in limiting its upside prospects in August–September 2022 (marked as “R3” in the chart below).

*ETH/BTC 3-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

The range coincides with the area defined by ETH/BTC’s 0.236–0.382 Fib lines, or 0.072 BTC–0.077 BTC. Therefore, the pair may stabilize inside the range, followed by a correction toward the 0.068 BTC–0.064 BTC area, its near-term support levels.

Meanwhile, a decisive breakdown below the 0.068 BTC–0.064 BTC area could expose Ether to fall toward its multi-month ascending trendline, which served as a solid rebound point after the April–May 2022 downtrend.

$ETHBTC | Update

The outlook after closing the pair at the top.
You can have a nice projection by analyzing RTed tweets (for education).

With mLTF bearish indications from the red box, the price may visit the lows of the green box.

The red lines are another resistance zone. https://t.co/6zFhLWT1A0 pic.twitter.com/rKnxWsCS3E
— Efloud (@EfloudTheSurfer) October 26, 2022

That puts ETH/BTC’s primary downside target at around 0.059 BTC in Q4 2022, down 20% from current price levels.

Bitcoin, Ethereum Technical Analysis: Ethereum Back Above $1,300 to Start the Week

October 24, 2022 Bitcoin.com

BTC/USD

ETH slides vs. BTC in second half of January

Ethereum price capped by key descending trendline

Cathie Wood's Ark short-term cautious on GBTC

Ark adds $17.6M in Coinbase stock

Can the GBTC price rally continue?

Ethereum price must first break key resistance

ETH "deflation" narrative

Bitcoin price exits descending channel range

Dollar forms a "death cross"

Not a long-term Bitcoin price rally

Another bear cycle produces more BTC hodlers

Hodler data hints at Bitcoin’s price bottom

Ether has a 61% chance of breaking out versus Bitcoin

Time to turn bullish on ETH?

ETH/BTC needs to break the range resistance

Ether beats Bitcoin in risk-on rally

Bear fractal alarm

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