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Bitcoin’s $100K price target returns as BTC price breaks out of bull pennant

The bullish analogy appears as Bitcoin reserves across all the crypto exchanges fall to their lowest in the previous 12 months, suggesting holding sentiment among traders.

Bitcoin (BTC) looks poised to pursue a run-up towards $100,000 as its price breaks out of a classic bullish structure.

Dubbed as Bull Pennant, the setup represents a price consolidation period with converging trendlines that form after a strong move higher. It ultimately prompts the price to break out in the direction of its previous trend to a level typically at length higher by as much as the size of the initial large move.

On Bitcoin weekly charts, the cryptocurrency appeared to have been trending inside a similar consolidation structure, with its price fluctuating inside a Triangle-like structure following a strong move higher (Flagpole).

BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring Bull Pennant setup. Source: TradingView.com

Last week, Bitcoin broke above the structure's upper trendline as it rose by 13.5% with rising trading volumes to boot. As a result, the cryptocurrency's breakout move indicated its potential to rise by as much as the size of its previous trend (nearly $50,000).

Measuring from the point of breakout (~$48,200), the Bull Pennant's upside target thereby comes out to be another $50,000 higher, i.e., almost $100,000.

Other predictions

The technical setup projected Bitcoin at $100,000 no longer after many analysts envisioned the cryptocurrency at the same, six-digital valuation.

A team of researchers at Standard Chartered, headed by its global head of emerging market currency research, Geoffrey Kendrick, predicted BTC to hit $100,000 by early next year. They cited Bitcoin's potential to become "the dominant peer-to-peer payment method for the global unbanked" behind their bullish prediction.

David Gokhshtein, the founder of Gokhshtein Media and PAC Global, also imagined Bitcoin above $100,000 before the end of 2021. The executive based his bullish outlook on the amount of available fiat liquidity in the market, which, according to him, has prompted leading Wall Street players to purchase Bitcoin.

"Not everybody's going to come out publicly and tell you that they're buying bitcoin, but they are," Gokhshtein told Business Insider.

"There's too much money in the market. Way too much money. Institutions did not come in here to play for five minutes."

His statements appeared after George Soros' investment firm revealed at a Bloomberg event that it owns Bitcoin, sending the cryptocurrency spiking. That soon followed up with JPMorgan & Chase's latest report that showed institutional investors' preference for Bitcoin over Gold as an inflation hedge.

In an earlier study published in May, the banking giant projected Bitcoin to reach $140,000 in the long term.

Holding sentiment on rise

On-chain indicators highlighted a rise in holding sentiment among Bitcoin traders.

Related: Tesla may have made more money holding Bitcoin than selling cars

In detail, the Bitcoin reserves held across all crypto exchanges recently dropped to their lowest levels in a year, as per data provided by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The decline illustrated traders' intention to hold their Bitcoin tokens close than trading them for other fiat/digital assets.

BTC reserves across all exchanges. Source: TradingView.com

Therefore, declining Bitcoin balances on exchanges typically follow up with rise in the BTC price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Here’s why Bitcoin mining stocks have been outperforming BTC price in 2021

One of the crypto mining stocks delivered more than 1,600% returns year-over-year (YoY) while Bitcoin's gains in the same period came out to be around 290%.

Bitcoin (BTC) might have outperformed traditional financial markets regarding investment returns, but the cryptocurrency still fell behind Bitcoin-related companies.

The price of BTC climbed by about 290% year-over-year, wherein it surged from $10,695 to a little over $42,000. In comparison, shares of Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), one of the largest North American crypto mining companies, rose by 1,641% in the same period.

MARA stock weekly price chart. Source: TradingView.com

Institutions-led pump

More crypto mining firms outran spot BTC prices in terms of YoY returns. For instance, Canada-based Bitfarms (BITF) surged 1,736%, while Hut 8 Mining (HUT) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) rallied by 1,010% and 913% in a year.

The performance of spot Bitcoin versus crypto-focused stocks in a year. Source: Ecoinometrics

Nick, the founder of Ecoinometrics, a crypto-focused newsletter service, called mining stocks an "obvious pick," noting that they gave institutional investors indirect exposure to Bitcoin markets. 

"I bet a lot of institutional investors haven't yet dipped their toes in trading spot BTC, mostly for compliance reasons," the analyst explained in an article published Sept. 27, adding:

"It is a bit like the gold miners when back in the days it was complicated to get your hands on physical gold. So the play for these guys has probably been, stay away from spot but trade the stocks."

The statements surfaced as Morgan Stanley reported in its securities filings that it had more than doubled its exposure in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a traditional investment vehicle for digital asset investors.

In detail, the Morgan Stanley Europe Opportunity Fund owned 58,116 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, or GBTC, as of July 31.

In July, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest also purchased more than 450,000 GBTC shares worth about $1.4 million. In line with mining stock performances, these investments showed an increase in institutional appetite for crypto-focused yet traditional investment products.

Nick added that investors would keep adding their capital into crypto mining stocks as long as they don't see a viable alternative, such as an exchange-traded fund in the U.S.

Scaling and hodling

Demand for mining stocks grows higher as a majority of firms focus on two important prospects: scaling and holding.

For instance, Marathon reported in its non-audited August report that it had received 21,584 top-tier Bitcoin mining ASIC machines from Bitmain in 2021, adding that it is due to get 5,916 more currently in transit. As a result, the company expects to run at least 133,000 Bitcoin mining machines by the middle of next year.

Meanwhile, Marathon noted that it now holds 6,695 BTC, including the 4,812.66 BTC it purchased in Jan 2021. As a result, the fair market value of Marathon’s current bitcoin holdings is now around $333.4 million, giving the firm adequate capital to scale up its productions in the future. 

Similarly, Riot Blockchain's August report showed a 451% increase in its Bitcoin mining capacity on a year-over-year basis, helped by its fleet of 22,050 miners, with a hash rate capacity of 2.2 exahash per second (EH/s). The firm mined 441 BTC in Aug 2021.

Related: Miners have accumulated $600M worth of Bitcoin since Feb

Riot noted that it plans to have 25,650 Bitmain machines in operation by early September. It is currently building a new mining facility in Texas.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin ‘heavy breakout’ fractal suggests BTC price can hit $250-$350K in 2021

The analogy appeared in anticipation that Bitcoin could post a 2017-like bull run, in which the price rose by more than 1,900%.

Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to push its prices to between $250,000 and $350,000 by the end of 2021, a long-standing fractal suggests.

First spotted by pseudonymous analyst Bit Harington, the bullish setup drew its inspirations from Bitcoin's secular bull runs every time after halvings when the miner block reward gets cut in half. Analysts perceive the halving as a bullish event, which reduced the supply of newly mined BTC. 

Harington reminded that Bitcoin's prices surged by more than 600% after the first two halving events in 2012 and 2016 when measured from a so-called resistance/support (R/S) line, as shown in the chart below.

Bitcoin price performance after the first two halving events. Source: BuyBitcoinWorldWide, PlanB, and Bit Harington

The line represented a barrier during the period of price uptrend. Traders tested it for a breakout multiple times before successfully breaching it to log a new record high. When prices started correcting, they eventually bottomed out near the same line.

In 2020-2021, Bitcoin underwent a similar upside trajectory, bouncing from below $4,000 to rising to above $60,000. Again, Harington highlighted the $60,000-level as the same R/S line that kept trades from logging a clear bullish breakout.

The analyst hinted that Bitcoin would break above it to soar towards a new record price level.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe reacted to Harington's fractal theory, adding that it would lead the Bitcoin prices to the $250,000-$350,000 range.

He noted, however, that the massive run-up could also prompt a brutal correction that can push Bitcoin prices back toward $65,000, right near the Harington's S/R level of $60,000.

Do fundamentals agree?

Bitcoin skyrocketed after crashing below $4,000 in March 2020 primarily due to the global central banks' loose monetary policies to curb the economic aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. The cryptocurrency closed the year at around $30,000, as retail and institutional investors woke up to its safe-haven narrative against a falling U.S. dollar and rising inflation fears.

So far in 2021, the price of Bitcoin topped around $65,000 before correcting lower below $50,000. At its year-to-date (YTD) low, the pair traded for $29,301 on the Coinbase exchange. Its losses were led by a sudden ban on all crypto activities in China (including mining) and Elon Musk's alarming tweets over Bitcoin's booming carbon footprints.

Bitcoin price performance throughout the history. Source: TradingView.com

BTC balance on exchanges drops to fresh lows

The cryptocurrency held prices above $30,000 as its reserves across exchanges dropped significantly.

Blockchain data analytics service CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin's balances across the crypto trading platforms slipped to around 2.37 million BTC last week, its lowest in more than a year.

Bitcoin reserves across all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

A decrease in Bitcoin reserves represents traders' intentions to hold the cryptocurrency instead of trading it for altcoins and fiat currencies.

Bitcoin hashrate has nearly recovered

Bitcoin's recovery from below $30,000 to almost $50,000 also coincided with its V-shaped hashrate recovery.

Related: BTC price falls back to $47K as weekly close neatly tracks Bitcoin futures gap

For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin network's computation power plunged to 84.79 million terahashes per second (TH/s) in early July from 180.66 million TH/s in late May. The drop surfaced as many miners responded to China's crypto crackdown by either shutting down their facilities or moving their operations abroad.

The seven-day average Bitcoin hashrate in recent history. Source: Blockchain.com

But the network recovered more than half of its lost hashrate, hitting 136.92 million TH/s on Sept. 18, indicating that China's direct ban did not have a prolonged effect on Bitcoin's mining sector. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin jumps toward $49K amid fears 5%-plus inflation is here to stay

The rush to so-called safe-haven cryptocurrency appears despite concerns that the Federal Reserve would taper its $120 billion a month asset purchasing program.

Bitcoin (BTC) inched higher on Sept. 18 as the focus shifted to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) policy meeting in the wake of lower inflation numbers last Tuesday.

The BTC/USD exchange rate approached $49,000 on the Coinbase exchange, hitting $48,825 before turning lower on interim profit-taking sentiment. Nonetheless, the move uphill raised expectations that the pair would hit $50,000, a psychological resistance target, in the coming sessions.

Inflation fears boost Bitcoin demand

The Bitcoin markets received a boost from fears of persistently higher inflation, despite a softer consumer price index (CPI) report released on Sept. 13.

Data showed that the U.S. CPI rose 5.3% year-over-year in August, compared to 5.4% in the previous month. The market received mixed reactions to these numbers, with some cheering that core inflation came out lower than expectations while others pointing that inflation was still at ridiculously high levels —with 5.3% being one of the highest numbers in more than a decade for CPI.

"I like to look at inflation data in a median sense (so rather than having one crazy category drive it all, we look at the center of the distribution, across 82 categories, equally weighted)," said Jens Nordvig, the founder of data analytics firm Exante Data. He added:

"On [median] metric, [inflation] number was not low."

More bullish cues for Bitcoin appeared as TD Securities analysts noted the Federal Reserve might delay the planned tapering of its $120 billion monthly asset purchase policy after the softer-than-expected inflation report.

Additionally, Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano, Partner at Pomp Investments, warned that a sustained 5% inflation would have Americans watch their savings evaporate.

"The only way to protect yourself in this environment is to make sure you are invested," Pomp said in a note to clients.

"The more invested in markets, regardless of whether it is equities, real estate, crypto, etc., the better off you will be."

Dollar goes up in tandem

As it happened, the BTC/USD exchange rate jumped 4.85% on the day of the inflation data release.

The pair moved up another 2.17% on Wednesday, with its prices closing above $48,000. Its prices started consolidating sideways in the next two sessions, only to move further towards $49,000 on Saturday.

Surprisingly, the US dollar index (DXY) also moved higher like Bitcoin, iterating that macro investors shifted the capital to assets they deemed as their safe-haven following the inflation report. The index, which measures the dollar against a basket of top foreign currencies, surged 0.41% on Friday to 93.246, its highest level in September.

Bitcoin and the US dollar index rise following mixed inflation outlook. Source: TradingView.com

More cues for Bitcoin and the dollar markets should be expected from next week's FOMC meeting.

Related: Bitcoin struggles at $40K after ‘most confusing’ Jerome Powell press conference

The Fed officials agree that they would start unwinding their loose monetary policies by the end of this year. But the nonfarm payroll (NFP) report earlier this month showed that the U.S. labor market had not recovered fully.

That would prompt the Fed to hold its tapering plans, and any further delay could entail both Bitcoin strength and dollar-weakness.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin’s sharp fall from $50K linked to stronger US dollar, gold — Correlation shows

The sell-off in the Bitcoin market, in particular, intensified due to excessively leveraged bullish bets.

Bitcoin (BTC) and spot gold hovered below their key psychological levels on Wednesday as a stronger United States dollar weighed on investors’ appetite for hedging assets.

The BTC/USD exchange rate dropped 5.27% to its intraday low of $44,423 but recovered a portion of those losses after reclaiming the $45,000–46,000 range as support. The pair’s recovery also came as an extension to its ongoing rebound from $42,830, a level it reached on Tuesday after falling by more than 18% in the session.

BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s massive sell-off coincided with a strikingly similar but dwarfed decline in the rivaling gold market. In detail, the precious metal suffered its worst daily drop in a month on Tuesday as spot XAU/USD rates fell below $1,800 following a minus 1.37% intraday move.

XAU/USD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The large red hourly candle on gold and Bitcoin charts appeared between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. However, the precious metal consolidated sideways after the big decline in contrast to Bitcoin that extended its downtrend.

In detail, the cryptocurrency crumbled under the weight of excessively leveraged bullish bets. Bybt data showed that about $3.68 billion worth of longs in the Bitcoin options market got liquidated in the last 24 hours, marking it the largest liquidation since June.

Bitcoin liquidations in the past 24 hours. Source: Bybt

Automated liquidations caused additional selloffs in the Bitcoin market, as traders were forced to sell their BTC holdings to cover their margin calls.

Is the U.S. dollar responsible for the big drop?

Worth noting, the sudden drop in Bitcoin and gold prices coincided with a sharp spike in the U.S. dollar index (DXY).

The index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of top national currencies, rose by 0.41% to 92.53 on Tuesday and continued climbing in the ongoing session to settle its intraday high at 92.73.

DXY hourly price chart. Source: TradingView

DXY moved away from its one-month low, benefiting from the rising U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the government debt sale this week, including $58 billion in three-year notes, $38 billion in 10-year notes, and $24 billion in 30-year bonds.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield, which was around 1.32% after Friday’s weak non-farm payroll report, rose to 1.377% on Tuesday. At the time of writing, it stands at 1.351%.

U.S. government bond 10-year yield. Source: TradingView

Mixed outlook until Fed meeting

Rising yields typically compete for haven flows against Bitcoin and gold. But despite the latest climb, they remain below July’s 5.4% core inflation, thus posing non-yielding safe havens as more attractive bets against rising consumer prices.

But with the Federal Reserve planning to start winding down its $120-billion-a-month asset purchasing facility at the end of this year, some analysts believe that bond yields will keep on recovering. In turn, they will provide the dollar a bullish backstop.

Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, told CNBC:

“The Federal Reserve we think is still likely to move toward tapering by the end of this year, the U.S. economy is likely to perform relatively strongly, so our view is minor dollar dips, minor dollar weakness is probably a buying opportunity.”

Related: Bitcoin price to hit $100K in 2021 or early 2022: Standard Chartered

Meanwhile, the rising COVID-19 Delta variant threatens to dampen recovery prospects. In turn, it could force the Fed to sustain its expensive bond-buying program, thus keeping a lid on yields and the dollar alike.

As a result, the outlook for Bitcoin and gold looks mixed. The Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting later this month expects to shed more light on the taper timeline.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin’s key momentum metric just flashed bearish with BTC price pinned under $50K

The relative strength index is making lower highs while correcting from its overbought area.

The run-up in the Bitcoin (BTC) price toward $50,000 last week risks exhaustion due to a mismatch between the cryptocurrency's price and momentum trends.

So it appears the Bitcoin's price and relative strength index (RSI) have been moving in the opposite direction since late July. In doing so, even a strong push higher in the BTC/USD bids has coincided with lower peaks in momentum, suggesting that the pair's upside momentum is weakening out.

Bearish divergence

A normal RSI momentum tends to tail the price action. That said, it rises when the price rises and falls when the price drops. But in some cases, the RSI deviates from pursuing the price trends, leading to a so-called RSI divergence.

Technical analysts consider RSI divergence as a powerful signal to spot price reversals. For instance, a bullish divergence, wherein the price falls and RSI rises, prompts traders to buy the asset in anticipation of a rebound. Similarly, a bearish divergence—featuring rising prices and falling RSI—prompts traders to take profits at the top while expecting a pullback.

The Bitcoin daily chart below shows the cryptocurrency in bearish divergence.

BTC/USD 1D chart featuring bearish divergence. Source: TradingView.com

The downside signal appears as Bitcoin struggles to break bullish above $50,000. As of Sunday, the benchmark cryptocurrency was trading at $48,387, or 4.19% lower from its three-month high of $50,505, achieved on Aug. 3, following a similar 72.36% upside boom.

On the other hand, Bitcoin's daily RSI initially rallied in sync with prices but topped out on July 30, which was way ahead of price, hitting $50,505. Since July 30, the Bitcoin price formed a sequence of higher highs while RSI printed lower highs, suggesting a weakening upside momentum.

A similar bearish divergence between January and April 2021 was instrumental in predicting a Bitcoin price drop, as shown in the chart below.

Bitcoin price-RSI divergence from January-April 2021 period. Source: TradingView.com

Bullish indicators

The bearish divergence signal comes as Bitcoin holds strongly above $30,000, amidst anticipation that it would become a hedge of choice among accredited investors against inflationary pressures.

The perception has led many analysts, including investment researcher Lyn Alden and Fundstrat CEO Tom Lee, to predict a $100,000 valuation for the cryptocurrency in 2021.

On Friday, Bitcoin price shot upward by $1,500 in an hour after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell presented a pro-inflation, dovish policy outlook at this year's Jackson Hole symposium.

As a result, the biggest bullish indicator for Bitcoin remains the Fed's aggressive $120 billion a month asset purchase program, coupled with its near-zero interest rate policy.

Related: Bitcoin price stages a comeback as 3 indicators reflect BTC’s strength

The strong fundamental has prompted technical analysts to envision a long-term uptrend in the Bitcoin market. Namely, independent market analyst Teddy Cleps presented a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency, based on key wave support that acts as an accumulation area for traders.

Bitcoin 4H chart featuring wave support. Source: Teddy Cleps, TradingView.com

Similarly, Ryan Clark, another market analyst, noted that Bitcoin has been merely consolidating below $50,000 just like when it was trading below $24,000 before the December 2020's bullish breakout.

On the other hand, TraderXO noted that Bitcoin could still fall towards the $39,000-40,000 area but remained convinced that the cryptocurrency would log an attractive rebound from the lower range.

The analyst marked Bitcoin's all-time high near $65,000 as its long-term upside target.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin futures open interest at 3-month highs — But will it be enough to overcome $50K?

The indicators, coupled with a strong bid momentum versus the offers, suggest that Bitcoin’s price could push above $50,000 in the coming sessions.

Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest has recovered to May levels, raising optimism about a potent bullish breakout move above $50,000.

The total number of outstanding futures contracts on the Deribit exchange reached $1.37 billion on Monday, its highest level since May 27. Meanwhile, the difference between the Bitcoin spot rate and its futures contract price widened, edging up its three-month basis (annualized) back to June levels, data provided by Stack Funds shows.

Bitcoin futures OI and 3-month basis. Source: Stack Funds

The investment management firm saw the recovery as a sign of investors reentering the Bitcoin market while adopting a “more risk-on approach.” According to its head of research, Lennard Neo, the “contango trading” of the Bitcoin futures reflected that “investors’ sentiments remain skewed towards bullishness.” He wrote in a report:

“More importantly, we have observed consistent strength in bid momentum versus the offers, leading us to believe that markets will be well-supported at least in the near term, with further consolidation before breaking $50,000.”

Retail’s influence on Bitcoin’s price

In June, Bitcoin futures collapsed under the weight of a brutal sell-off in the world’s largest cryptocurrency spot market. The downside move from $41,322 to $28,800 expunged the basis trade, wherein a trader buys Bitcoin in the spot market and sells long-dated futures to lock in the disparity between the two prices.

So it appeared, leveraged futures traders unwound their long positions to meet margin calls — that is, via automatic liquidation mechanisms on exchanges. That reduced the gap between the Bitcoin futures prices and the spot, raising fears of negative premium on futures contracts, also called backwardation.

On Deribit, the three-month basis (annualized) was around 2.5%. But in ideal “contango” circumstances, futures should trade at a 5%–15% annualized premium according to the stablecoin lending rate.

Cointelegraph reported that the June drop had less to do with long liquidation and more with miners’ capitulation. It cited China’s crackdown on regional crypto firms around the same time Bitcoin prices plunged, noting that the decision forced crypto miners to shut down operations abruptly and, in turn, sell their Bitcoin holdings en masse to cover losses.

Bitcoin spot rates fell over 30% in just seven days in June 2021. Source: TradingView

$50,000 a psychological barrier

Entering August, Bitcoin has brushed aside most mining concerns, with a recent Glassnode report indicating that miners have started reaccumulating tokens. Meanwhile, persistently high inflation reports in the United States have also boosted Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative among accredited investors.

Related: Bitcoin set to replace gold, says Bloomberg strategist on Bretton Woods’ 50th anniversary

That partially explains why Bitcoin bottomed out near $29,000 and rose back to $50,000 in over a month. It also underscores the spike in futures open interest and basis trading, signaling renewed buying interest among investors and traders alike. 

But Neo saw a potential glitch. The researcher highlighted Bitcoin’s recent failure to close above its psychological resistance at $50,000, noting that it could put the brakes on its imminent rally. He added:

“The fact that the 3-month basis has not broke June levels and is still way off Apr levels suggests that real demand and speculation remain conservative.”

Bitcoin was trading at $46,888, about 7.78% below its sessional high of $50,505, at the time of writing.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin ‘sell the rally’ indicator flashes again as BTC price breaks below $45K

An on-chain indicator, notorious for spotting fake bullish breakouts during downside corrections, flashes again.

A Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain indicator that spotted dead cat bounces during the yesteryear bearish market corrections has flashed again in August 2021.

Dubbed as "Bitcoin: Short Term Holder NUPL," the indicator takes into account the unspent transaction output, or UTXO, of BTC transactions not more than 155 days old. In doing so, it attempts to determine whether or not an investor is profitable within 155 days of purchasing and holding Bitcoin.

Therefore, if the NUPL, which stands for Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, returns a reading below zero, it means investors are making a loss on their Bitcoin investments. Conversely, an NUPL above zero shows that investors are making a profit.

Glassnode reported Thursday that the Bitcoin NUPL for short-term investors recovered back above zero, signifying their profitable state for the first time since May 2021's crypto market crash. Meanwhile, the blockchain analytics platform also signaled fears of potential sell-off, citing fractals from 2014-15, 2018, and March 2020 bear cycles.

Bitcoin short-term holder NUPL chart. Source: Glassnode

In detail, short-term Bitcoin holders earlier used the recovery rallies during corrections to secure interim profits.

The price action from 2014-15 bearish session shows BTC/USD resuming its downside correction despite a 100% rebound. Similarly, in 2018, a 97.41% upside retracement did little in securing the market from the prevailing bearish bias.

Bitcoin price recoveries did not last during the 2014-15 and 2018 bearish cycles. Source: TradingView.com

The latest upside recovery in 2021 came after Bitcoin prices crashed from circa $65,000 to around $29,000. The cryptocurrency rallied to $46,787 on the Bitstamp exchange following a major rebound afterward—a 63.59% jump.

Bitcoin corrected lower again on Thursday, falling below its psychological support level of $45,000. At its intraday low, the cryptocurrency was changing hands for $44,100.

BTC/USD price performance in recent history. Source: TradingView.com

The dissenting bullish case

Glassnode noted that such "rapid recoveries" are common in two cases: either bear market relief rallies or disbelief phases of bull markets.

Therefore, in saying so, the blockchain analytics platform did not rule out the possibility of an extended bull run, such as the one seen during the upside booms of 2013, 2019, and 2020.

More evidence corroborating the bullish outlook came from Glassnode's report published earlier this week. The platform spotted a decline in short-term holders in line with a rise in long-term holders, insomuch that the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders reached a new all-time high of 82.68% of all the coins in circulation.

Related: Large hodlers accumulate Bitcoin below $50K as BTC transactions over $1M soar

Meanwhile, the coin possessed by short-term holders dropped to 25% of the net Bitcoin supply in ciculation, suggesting a run-up in holding behavior.

Long and short term holder supply ratio. Source: Glassnode

Historically, when the short-term holder ratio drops to 20%, it leads to a supply squeeze scenario, i.e., when coins in circulation fall short of the current demand.

“This is extremely similar to the volume of coins held by [long term holders] in October 2020 before the primary bullish impulse started,” Glassnode analysts wrote, adding:

"Whilst the supply squeeze based on the [short-term holder] Supply Ratio is not yet at 20%, there are numerous indicators and trends in play that suggest it may hit it in mid-September (but that the conditions for a supply squeeze are already in play)."

Bitcoin was trading around $44,200 at the time of this writing.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin hits $45K ahead of July inflation report, but one fractal hints at looming correction

The flagship cryptocurrency hits its highest level in more than two months as inflation is expected to rise by another 0.5% in July.

Bitcoin (BTC) reached its highest level in more than two months with just a few days remaining before the July inflation report.

The top cryptocurrency climbed 1.65% to $45,363 on Aug.8, continuing the upside momentum that has already seen it jumping 21.62% from its August 5 low of $37,300.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView.com

Momentum was strong among the Bitcoin rivals as well. Ether (ETH), the second-largest crypto by market cap, increased 29.78% from its Aug. 3 low of $2,630, crossing over $3,100 on Sunday. Its gains came after Ethereum's London hard fork went live on Aug. 5, which should add deflationary pressure to the supply of ETH.

July inflation report, on-chain 

On Wednesday, Aug.11, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July's inflation report, with markets forecasting a 0.5% spike. The projections appear after the consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 5.4% year-over-year in June to log its biggest increase in 13 years.

Bitcoin bulls have responded positively to the recent inflation reports. They effectively guarded the cryptocurrency against falling below $30,000 after the May 19 crash. Meanwhile, their recent efforts to push the prices above $40,000, eventually leading into a slow upside break above $45,000, indicates strong demand for Bitcoin, which appears to be breaking out of its summer slump.

Lex Moskovski, chief investment officer at Moskovski Capital, highlighted a Glassnode chart that showed dramatic spikes in entities entering the Bitcoin network, matching the growth with the rising BTC/USD rates.

Bitcoin entities net growth chart. Source: Glassnode

"Amount of new Bitcoin entities continues to hit all-time high," Moskovski tweeted.

Additionally, on-chain analyst Willy Woo said the ongoing Bitcoin momentum should push its prices above $50,000, citing supply-demand imbalance in the market. He said that all investor cohorts were buying Bitcoin, which led to supply shock.

Related: Here’s what traders expect now that Ethereum price is over $3,000

Woo referred to a chart he posted on July 15 when Bitcoin market was correcting lower after peaking out sessional at $36,675. The graph, as shown below, highlighted events of Bitcoin liquidity shock across all the exchanges and their relation to the prices.

Woo explained:

"Fundamentals do not predict short-term price, but given enough time price discovery reverts to fundamentals. [The] exact value is $53.2k today, with a standard deviation band between $39.6k - $66.8k (68.5% confidence)."

Bearish fractal

However, the latest Bitcoin climb does carry risks of becoming a dead cat bounce based on previous top-to-bottom Fibonacci retracement fractals.

Bitcoin Fib retracement from local tops to 200-week EMA. Source: TradingView.com

After setting up record highs, Bitcoin tends to correct toward its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the yellow wave), where it eventually bottoms out to pursue another bullish cycle.

In the past two events, the BTC/USD exchange rate posted fake recovery rallies after testing the 23.6 Fib line as support. Those upside moves failed short of turning into big bullish momentums after facing resistance at higher Fib levels.

Related: 3 reasons why Ethereum is unlikely to flip Bitcoin any time soon

For instance, in 2019, Bitcoin rebounded by more than 50% after bouncing off from its 23.6 Fib line near $7,357. But the cryptocurrency faced extreme selling pressure near its 61.8 Fib line of $10,613.  Eventually, it resumed its downtrend and crashed to as low as $3,858 in March 2020.

If the fractal repeats, Bitcoin could face extreme resistance at 61.8 Fib level at $46,792 and correct lower to retest its 200-day EMA, which currently sits below $20,000.

Independent market commentator and trader Keith Wareing suggested that an imminent bullish crossover between Bitcoin's two weekly moving averages hints at the beginning of a multi-month bull run. Dubbed as MACD, the indicator was instrumental in predicting the 2020 bull run.

Bitcoin prices and MACD crossovers in recent history. Source: TradingView.com

"The weekly MACD is due to cross bullish on Bitcoin after tonight’s close," opined Wareing to his followers with the price of Bitcoin so far maintaining above $44,500 at the time of writing.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

South Korea’s Financial Regulator Launches System To Monitor Crypto Fraud in Real Time

Bitcoin could be on the verge of a big breakout at $42K, hodler activity suggests

$42,000 is becoming an increasingly important battleground for Bitcoin bulls and bears.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo asserted that Bitcoin (BTC) would break above the $42,000-resistance level in its coming attempts.

The researcher based his bullish analogy on the so-called Rick Astley indicator, a heat-map that tracks investors—the Rick Astleys of this world—that buy Bitcoin to hold the asset for longer timeframes.

The indicator earlier predicted Bitcoin price spikes based on investors' buying activity below certain technical resistance levels.

Investors' buy-and-hold habits tracked using Bitcoin on-chain heat map. Source: Willy Woo

However, Woo noted that the "strong-handed long term investors are absorbing" the Bitcoin supply below $42,000, which raises the cryptocurrency's prospects of closing above the level.

90 day moving average of Bitcoin moving to Rick Astley about to cross bullish. Source: Willy Woo, Glassnode

"Strong HODLers have been taking this opportunity to scoop large amounts of coinage while we're under the resistance ceiling," tweeted Woo.

The statements came a day after Bitcoin reclaimed its psychological resistance level of $40,000 as support.

BTC sustained above the price floor on Friday despite looming profit-taking sentiment. It established an intraday high of $41,191 before correcting lower to $40,360, as of 12:05 UTC.

Bitcoin's upside prospects looked limited due to its tendency to reject bullish breakout attempts above the $40,000-$42,000 area. In detail, the BTC/USD exchange rate has made at least ten attempts to close above the said range after May 19's notorious crypto crash

Bitcoin stuck below $42,000-resistance level. Source: TradingView.com

But each time, strong selling pressure around the area prompts the BTC/USD rates lower towards the $30,000-$35,000 range.

Supply squeeze underway

Woo's upside predictions also carried the supply squeeze undertones—a situation wherein the number of available Bitcoin supply falls below its spot market demand, leading to higher bids.

Related: This bullish Bitcoin options strategy targets $50K without risk of liquidation

Woo applied his own "Liquid Supply Shock" indicator to conclude that markets ran out of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin supply shock with respect to its price. Source: Willy Woo

In detail, Liquid Supply Shock is the ratio of coins that traders cannot buy versus the coins that they can buy. Woo calculates the supply shock by dividing the coins held by strong-handed investors with the coins held by speculative investors.

"Coins are rapidly disappearing from the available market as strong holders continue to lock them away for long-term investment," said Woo, adding that the supply squeeze could send Bitcoin to $55,000.

"I’ve not seen a supply shock opportunity like this since Q4 2020 when BTC was priced at $10k only to be repriced at $60k in the months thereafter. Our supply shock is still in play with higher prices expected."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

South Korea’s Financial Regulator Launches System To Monitor Crypto Fraud in Real Time