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$13.6B in Bitcoin options expire Friday — Can bulls push BTC price to $100K?

Coin Telegraph
.6B in Bitcoin options expire Friday — Can bulls push BTC price to 0K?
bitcoin options

Can this week’s $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry trigger a BTC price rally to $100,000 and beyond? 

Bitcoin is set for its largest monthly options expiry of 2024, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion.

This event provides bulls with a pivotal opportunity to push Bitcoin’s (BTC) price above $100,000, making it crucial to assess the impact of call (buy) and put (sell) options set to expire on Nov. 29.

The S&P 500 has struggled to maintain levels above 6,000 over the past three weeks, signaling growing investor caution. This shift in sentiment is reflected in the United States five-year Treasury yield, which has declined from 4.35% on Nov. 15 to the current 4.12%.

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Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here's what to expect

Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here’s what to expect

Ethereum bulls and bears fight to win this week’s $2.8B ETH options expiry

Coin Telegraph
Ethereum bulls and bears fight to win this week’s .8B ETH options expiry
Call

Ethereum price showed strength in September, but data suggests holding above $2,600 will be a challenge.

Ether (ETH) is trying to maintain its position above the $2,600 resistance level following a 15.1% gain between Sept. 18 and Sept. 23. Recent macroeconomic data indicating a weakening economy has fueled a rally in the stock market, increasing demand for short-term government bonds. In this context, traders are betting that the upcoming $2.78 billion monthly Ether options expiry on Sept. 27 could solidify the current bullish momentum.

The surge in Ether’s price has been primarily driven by a cut in US Federal Reserve interest rates, signaling a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy. As a result, the S&P 500 index hit an all-time high on Sept. 24. Further bolstering this outlook, a drop in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on Sept. 23 heightened investor concerns about the health of the economy.

Ether/USD (blue) vs. US 2-year Treasury yield (magenta). Source: TradingView

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Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here's what to expect

Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here’s what to expect

$8.1B in Bitcoin options expire this month — Do bulls or bears have the upper hand?

Coin Telegraph
.1B in Bitcoin options expire this month — Do bulls or bears have the upper hand?
Bitcoin Price

Will this week’s $8.1 billion Bitcoin options expiry fuel a rally to $70,000 or should traders anticipate a correction? 

Bitcoin (BTC) is about to experience its second-largest monthly options expiry of 2024, totaling $8.1 billion in aggregate exposure. The question is: will this be enough to fuel a robust rally toward $70,000, or are the bearish incentives too strong to ignore?

The current Macroeconomic environment favors risk-on assets, including Bitcoin and the Sept. 27 options expiry will be a pivotal event. The neutral-to-bullish options holders are well-positioned to capitalize if Bitcoin stays above $63,000. However, bears have enough motivation to curb this advantage by pushing Bitcoin’s price below $60,000. Thus, analyzing the options market's positioning and the potential net impact of the monthly expiry is crucial.

On Sept. 24, the Chinese stock market surged following the People's Bank of China’s (PBOC) announcement of plans to lower borrowing costs and inject liquidity into the economy, including reduced mortgage repayment programs. Additionally, the PBOC pledged $113.8 billion to support the stock market, including measures for share purchases and buybacks. Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, commented, “There is still room for further easing in the months ahead,” according to Yahoo Finance.

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Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here's what to expect

Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here’s what to expect

Bitcoin price volatility expected at Fed September FOMC meeting — Here’s how to prepare

Coin Telegraph
Bitcoin price volatility expected at Fed September FOMC meeting — Here’s how to prepare
Call

Bitcoin traders expect BTC to rally if the Fed rolls out a 0.50% rate cut, but hedging these bullish positions is also necessary. Here is how it's done.

Bitcoin (BTC) has repeatedly failed to close above the $62,000 level since Aug. 3 and is currently down 11% over the past 30 days. More notably, the cryptocurrency has decoupled from the S&P 500 index, which is up 1% in the same period and only 1% below its all-time high.

Bitcoin price in USD (right) vs. S&P 500 futures (left), 12-hour. Source: TradingView

Investors expect that risk markets, including Bitcoin, could see significant gains if the Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts interest rates, and professional traders are using BTC options to maximize gains while limiting risks.

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Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here's what to expect

Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here’s what to expect

Bitcoin price hits $61K, but investors still prefer stocks and bonds right now

Coin Telegraph
Bitcoin price hits K, but investors still prefer stocks and bonds right now
basis

Investors balance risk as Bitcoin futures dip, reflecting uncertainty before the Federal Reserve's September meeting.

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 21% since it retested the sub-$50,000 level on Aug. 5, its price has struggled to maintain above $62,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has fully recovered and is now trading just 1% below its all-time high set on July 16. 

Bitcoin faces several conflicting trends, including derivatives metrics reflecting low buyer interest and macroeconomic indicators suggesting that traders are increasingly shifting away from cash positions. Interestingly, these stock market gains have coincided with a notable decline in US Treasury yields, which signals robust demand for these traditionally safe instruments. 

In essence, traders are now willing to accept lower returns on fixed-income assets, likely reflecting a growing confidence in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) strategy to curb inflation without sparking a recession. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates on Sept. 18 after maintaining rates above 4% since December 2022.

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Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here's what to expect

Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here’s what to expect

Bitcoin bulls were obliterated, but is it time to catch the falling knife?

Coin Telegraph
Bitcoin bulls were obliterated, but is it time to catch the falling knife?
Call

Bitcoin derivatives show traders’ morale is low, weakening the odds of a 20% rise from the $49,320 BTC bottom.

Bitcoin (BTC) price crashed 19% on Aug. 5, reaching its lowest level in almost six months at $49,320. The sell-off caused the Bitcoin futures premium, considered the best proxy for derivatives traders’ optimism, to hit its lowest levels in three months. Traders are now debating whether Bitcoin prices below $53,000 represent a golden opportunity or if the risk of another drop below $47,000 is too high.

To gauge the impact of the recent price crash, one should begin by analyzing the Bitcoin futures markets. Unlike perpetual contracts, which typically settle every eight hours, BTC monthly futures carry an embedded cost due to their longer settlement period. Sellers generally demand a 5% to 10% annualized premium relative to regular Bitcoin spot markets to compensate for this issue. In summary, premiums below 5% signal pessimism.

The annualized Bitcoin futures premium (basis rate) fell to 5.5% on Aug. 5, its lowest level in three months, a sharp drop from the previous week when the indicator peaked at 12%. More notably, when the futures premium bottomed at 5% on May 2, it followed a 15% weekly Bitcoin price decline from $66,600 to $56,200. In May, Bitcoin’s price rebounded by 13% in the three days following the crash, but the current situation differs significantly.

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Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here's what to expect

Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here’s what to expect

Bitcoin price crumbles to $62K support, but derivatives metrics show bullish signs

Coin Telegraph
Bitcoin price crumbles to K support, but derivatives metrics show bullish signs
Bears

Bitcoin’s price continues to correct, but BTC options markets reflect traders’ interest in the $62,000 level.

Bitcoin (BTC) price plunged 5.5% between July 31 and Aug. 1, reaching its lowest level in over two weeks at $62,498. This movement has been attributed to reduced expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States and the distribution of 47,000 BTC from the estate of defunct exchange Mt. Gox. Traders fear that Bitcoin’s price could further correct to retest the $57,000 support level, but derivatives markets show resilience and no signs of stress.

On July 31, the United States Federal Open Market Committee announced its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, aligning with market expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited solid signs of gross domestic product expansion and confidence in the current rate of inflation reduction, potentially supporting a rate cut in September. In short, Powell’s statement suggests a more cautious approach to rate cuts.

Investors increased their bets in US Treasurys, causing the five-year yield to reach its lowest level in six months. Part of this movement can be explained by escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading traders to seek protection in the asset deemed safest. Another confirmation of this theory comes from the precious metal gold, as its price increased to $2,450, just 1.5% below its all-time high.

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Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here's what to expect

Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here’s what to expect

Coinbase-posing scammers steal $1.7M from a user amid a string of attacks

Coin Telegraph
Coinbase-posing scammers steal .7M from a user amid a string of attacks
attack

A victim who claims to have lost $1.7 million said a scammer called them claiming to be from Coinbase and sent emails that looked like they came from the crypto exchange.

At least three Coinbase users and one crypto user have reported being targeted by Coinbase-impersonating scammers in the past week, with one victim claiming to have been swindled out of $1.7 million.

Edge & Node co-founder Tegan Kline shared to X on July 7 an explainer from a “good friend” who had their self-custody wallet drained of $1.7 million a day prior after a scammer tricked them into sharing part of their seed phrase.

The victim said the scammer called claiming they were from Coinbase’s security team and sent the victim an email that appeared to be from Coinbase that verified the victim was “speaking to an official representative at Coinbase.”

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Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here's what to expect

Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here’s what to expect

Will Bitcoin bulls or bears benefit from this week’s $9.25B BTC options expiry?

Coin Telegraph
Will Bitcoin bulls or bears benefit from this week’s .25B BTC options expiry?
Bear

The Bitcoin halving hype has long passed, and this month’s massive options expiry provides insight into the future of the current BTC bull market.

A total of $9.25 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options is set to expire on the morning of June 28. June’s monthly expiry is especially important given that it marks the end of the first half of 2024 and historically is the second largest expiry in every market, including the traditional finance industry. Investors are especially concerned after the $3 trillion tech giant NVidia traded down 12% since its all-time high on June 20.

It has been two months since the Bitcoin halving, which likely explains why 57% of the bullish bets have been placed at $70,000 or higher. But, in reality, the market displayed weakness in the past two weeks, making those call (buy) options essentially worthless. If Bitcoin remains near $61,500 on June 28 at 8:00 am UTC, the rights to buy BTC at $62,000 and $64,000 will not take part in the expiry. Similarly, put (sell) options at $58,000 and $60,000 are rendered null.

Bitcoin bulls have weak macroeconomic data on their side, which favors a more aggressive rate cut and monetary stimulus campaigns from the United States Federal Reserve and Department of Treasury. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped to a six-month low in May, down 11.3% from the prior year. More concerningly, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.3 months to clear the new houses supply, up from 8.1 months in April.

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Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here's what to expect

Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here’s what to expect

Bitcoin derivatives turn bearish as traders anticipate sub $60K BTC price

Coin Telegraph
Bitcoin derivatives turn bearish as traders anticipate sub K BTC price
AMD

Bitcoin derivatives data suggests that macroeconomic and crypto-specific factors are behind BTC’s recent drop below $60,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 5.8% between June 23 and June 24, reaching its lowest level in seven weeks at $59,700. Despite a modest recovery to $60,400, a total of $153 million in leveraged long BTC futures was forcefully liquidated due to insufficient margin. This movement caused derivatives metrics to shift to a neutral sentiment, ending a bullish trend that had lasted five weeks.

Traders are now questioning whether the worsening crypto market conditions indicate a longer bear market or a momentary panic due to miners being forced to cover expenses amid lower profitability and the potential sale of large stashes by known entities. Should traders wait for a dip to $57,500 or increase their positions during this period of fear, uncertainty, and doubt?

Some analysts raised concerns after the failed exchange Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate announced the imminent repayment in Bitcoin. Anonymous influencer fejau stressed that the disbursement announcement could have been anticipated by insiders, which explains the recent price weakness. However, fejau is puzzled by Bitcoin’s performance given the constructive macroeconomic scenario.

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Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here's what to expect

Fed expected to make third rate cut today—here’s what to expect

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