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Economists debunk the banking system and win the Nobel Prize

Three economists were awarded the Nobel Prize in economic sciences for their decades of research on societal reactions to financial crises and avoiding bank collapses.

Three economists were awarded the Nobel Prize in economic sciences on Oct. 10 for their discoveries which are said to have improved “how society deals with financial crises."

Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig conducted research on the economic role played by banks during times of financial crisis. According to the Nobel Prize Organization, this research included an important finding on why it is not only important but “vital” to avoid the collapse of banks.

Tore Ellingsen, the chair of the committee for the prize in economic sciences, said that:

“The laureates’ insights have improved our ability to avoid both serious crises and expensive bailouts."

Diamond highlights the important role banks play in society as a middleman between savers and borrowers. Banks can provide depositors open access to their funds while giving the option of long-term loans to borrowers.

Along with stressing the vital socio-economic role banks play, the research also points to the vulnerabilities of banks, which spur rumors of their ‘imminent collapse” in the instance of a run on banks.

As crypto and the Web3 world become more mainstream, banks have new things to consider as societal challenges and adaptations.

Users are now interested in decentralized finance (DeFi) for the very reason of taking out a middleman between them and their liquid assets. DeFi, in the non-custodial sense, gives users unfettered access to financial tools they need and is increasingly used as a tool to help the unbanked.

However, as a Bloomberg analyst reported, many who have been used to the security found in traditional finance have a “fear of the unknown” when it comes to activity in DeFi and crypto.

Related: Institutional crypto custody: How banks are housing digital assets

Banks and major TradFi corporations have taken hints from the increasingly relevant and useful role of cryptocurrencies. According to data from the Basel Committee, banks worldwide own 9.4 billion euros in crypto assets.

The Central Bank of Switzerland also claims central banks will be a major proponent to further push DeFi into the mainstream through the right combination of centralization and decentralization.

Banks around the world trying to stay relevant with the shift towards digital currencies and the general digitization of money. Many are looking into developing their own central bank digital currencies (CBDC).

Most recently, the central bank of India released their outline for plans of a digital rupee CBDC.

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Ark Invest CEO Warns Rate Hikes Could Fuel a ‘Deflationary Bust’ in Open Letter to the Fed

Ark Invest CEO Warns Rate Hikes Could Fuel a ‘Deflationary Bust’ in Open Letter to the FedFollowing the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report that the U.S. Federal Reserve should stop raising rates, Ark Invest CEO Catherine Wood has published an open letter to the U.S. central bank asking the institution to stop raising interest rates. Wood says that the “unprecedented 13-fold increase in interest rates” has not […]

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Bank of England to Double Long-Dated Gilt Buy-Backs, QE Policy to See an ‘Orderly End’ in Mid-October

Bank of England to Double Long-Dated Gilt Buy-Backs, QE Policy to See an ‘Orderly End’ in Mid-OctoberAfter the British pound sterling tapped an all-time low against the U.S. dollar on September 26, the Bank of England (BOE) said it would halt its monetary tightening policy and start buying long-dated bonds again. Approximately two weeks later, the BOE detailed on Monday that it was doubling the size of its debt buy-backs by […]

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Is Bitcoin an inflation hedge? Why BTC hasn’t faired well with peak inflation

Bitcoin’s status as an inflation hedge has come under scrutiny in the current market, but experts point toward the exceptional market conditions.

Bitcoin has been projected as many things since its inception in 2009. However, the most talked about aspects have been a fungible form of future money and an inflation hedge.

The last Bitcoin (BTC) halving cycle (a block reward halving event that happens approximately every four years) coincided with the raging COVID-19 pandemic, which solidified many people’s belief in the nascent tech as a true hedge against inflation and worldly disorders. One year down the line, however, BTC has lost 75% of its market capitalization and not many would agree with the inflation hedge theory.

During the last year’s bull cycle the likes of Microstrategy, Tesla and numerous other public companies doubled down on Bitcoin’s inflation hedge aspect by adding Bitcoin to their company treasuries. Microstrategy started buying BTC when the price of the top cryptocurrency was trading in the sub-$10,000 price range and continued its purchases until the market reached the top with BTC price near $69,0000.

The decision looked very lucrative in the beginning as the BTC price was touching new highs every month and many in the crypto community hailed Microstrategy CEO as the crusader for Bitcoin’s “inflation hedge” case. However, the sentiment in the community changed quickly with the advent of the bear market, which only got worse with soaring inflation caused by various geo-political issues like the war in Ukraine and subsequent food supply and energy crises.

At present, inflation rates have touched new highs across the world and many countries are struggling to avoid a recession. Bitcoin, like most other assets, is struggling to remain a lucrative investment option, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it has completely failed as an inflation hedge, some say.

Kasper Vandeloock, CEO at quantitative crypto trading firm Musca Capital, believes that BTC is still among the strongest performing asset despite the downturn, but it depends on how one frames it:

“Sure, it is down 75%; however, that is compared to the strongest asset out there if we compare it to currencies such as the Turkish lira, it shows more strength. Besides, it is not like other hedges such as gold that have never encountered a large drawdown. One factor many people forget about is that an inflation hedge is a kind of ‘insurance’ thing such as real estate, while gold is hard to store and sell since it’s illiquid. Bitcoin offers many advantages that those assets don’t.”

Talking about the role of Microstrategy, Vandeloock believes that the Fortune 500 company’s bet has more than succeeded when it comes to MicroStrategy, “Since we can’t get an exchange-traded fund, how can we create a vehicle so others can speculate on the price of Bitcoin? That is what MicroStrategy tries to accomplish and they have succeeded.”

The idea of Bitcoin being a hedge against troubled financial markets is derived from the top cryptocurrency’s inherent properties such as a fixed supply of 21 million with central control of its monetary policy. Bitcoin proponents believe that a scarce supply added with growing acceptance in the mainstream would eventually make it a better inflation hedge than gold and other similar safe-haven assets. Others believe that the time frame will play a key role as well, given BTC is still a nascent asset class compared to others.

The strengthening dollar 

Bitcoin’s uncertain position as a hedge against market conditions could be attributed to several factors including a number of macroeconomic ones. The current market downturn is not just because of the fragile financial market, in fact, market conditions have been worsened by several external crises such as the ongoing geopolitical tensions that have in turn fueled financial instability.

Experts are of the opinion that during times of geo-political crisis, the United States dollar becomes the primary inflation hedge. Martin Hiesboeck, head of blockchain and crypto research at Uphold, told Cointelegraph that none of the assets are currently offering a hedge against inflation because of the USD’s strength:

“We all thought that Bitcoin was going to be an inflation hedge, but it turns out in times of war, the safe haven is still the U.S. dollar, which projects military might more than decentralized computer networks like Bitcoin. Crypto has been harmed by the strong USD, as well as the multitude of phishing scams and hacks that have occurred since the beginning of the year.”

He added that Bitcoin’s truly decentralized nature lessens its appeal during times of conflict, as it isn’t backed by any government. Thus, the main variables of concern are “the Russian war in Ukraine and the Fed’s outlook on inflation. Put those two together and we will see continued USD strength and in turn, Bitcoin weakness."

Other experts believe that Bitcoin’s inflation hedge properties should be seen in the long term rather than the current time frame. Bitcoin might not seem to be a hedge currently but if we take a 10-year time frame, BTC has definitely outperformed most of the assets.

Alex Tapscott, managing director at digital asset management firm Ninepoint Partners, told Cointelegraph that during the ongoing financial crisis, most of the stable and safe haven assets have suffered equally. He added that Bitcoin could prove to be an inflation hedge in the long term and explained:

“In periods of extreme financial strain, the U.S. dollar rises at the expense of all other assets. Most typically ’stable’ investments like government bonds, blue chip equities and even gold have suffered and Bitcoin has been no exception. However, Bitcoin is still a good addition to a well-diversified portfolio. Its historically low correlation and track record of outsized returns make it suited to a long-term investors approach.”

Bitcoin, over the past decade, has gone through numerous cycles of ups and downs, but what has remained constant is its compounding growth in terms of value and as an asset class. The top cryptocurrency has been on a long journey from being deemed as an internet bubble to becoming a treasury asset for Fortune 500 companies. However, Bitcoin is still relatively a very young asset.

Bitcoin is not the only one down

As inflation runs rampant, most retail traders are looking for valuable assets rather than a safe haven. This is one reason why the traditional inflation hedge of gold and even Bitcoin have become less attractive.

Nick Saponaro, CEO at crypto infrastructure provider Divi Labs, told Cointelegraph that BTC will continue to be a hedge against the “dangers of a centralized and failing economic structure. Bitcoin has remained the best-performing asset for over a decade and, regardless of its narrative, will remain of interest to large-scale institutions and main street investors alike.”

He added further that it is not uncommon for stores-of-value to “take a hit early in a recession with late-stage rebounds. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see commodities like gold and Bitcoin rebound before most other assets once we are deep in the thralls of recession.”

Steven Lubka, managing director of private client services at Bitcoin asset manager Swan Bitcoin, explained that consumer price inflation driven by shortages is bad for Bitcoin as well as gold:

“When the U.S. engaged in huge monetary expansion, Bitcoin was the best-performing asset class. If you bought Bitcoin the day the stimulus checks were announced, you have still outperformed the S&P 500 by a large degree even with today’s recent price drawdown. However, for all of 2022 we haven’t been in a monetary expansion, but instead a monetary contraction. The monetary base (both currency and assets) have contracted and interest rates have risen sharply. Look no further than how gold, the original ‘inflation hedge,’ has performed. It is down along with everything else despite high CPI.”

If a state creates more fiat money, the money supply will increase. As evident throughout history that when more money circulates, the market capitalization of BTC often increases, indicating that BTC does act as a hedge against this type of inflation. Simply put, if the expansion of fiat currencies accelerates, so does the market capitalization of all Bitcoins.

Konstantin Anissimov, chief operations officer at crypto exchange CEX.IO, told Cointelegraph that BTC helps hedge against certain types of inflation. However, there are still factors that impact assets beyond inflation, he explained:

“The roots of price inflation can be embedded in the geopolitical landscape and the ebb and flow of the global economy. These are points that few assets are shielded from, with BTC being no exception. While BTC can help hedge against certain types of inflation, some nuance is required to unpack that sentiment.”

Bitcoin’s growth as an inflation hedge has been significant on a long-term scale. However, the present macro conditions have impacted the financial markets across asset classes. It’s not just BTC that has failed to show resilience against the blazing inflation, even some of the most reliable assets classes such as gold or governments bonds have failed to offer security in the current market. 

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Brazilian Presidential Candidate ‘Lula’ Da Silva Signals Support for Central Bank of Brazil Involvement in Crypto Regulation

Brazilian Presidential Candidate ‘Lula’ Da Silva Signals Support for Central Bank of Brazil Involvement in Crypto RegulationThe presidential candidate that obtained most of the votes in the first Brazilian ballot round, Luis Inacio Da Silva, better known as “Lula,” declared that the Central Bank of Brazil should be responsible for building a cryptocurrency law framework. Lula also stated that the impact of cryptocurrencies should be measured to avoid any adverse effects […]

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Central banks can push DeFi into mainstream: Swiss National Bank official

A combination of centralization and decentralization is a perfect mix for the development of crypto and DeFi, according to a Swiss National Bank official.

Central bank digital currencies (CBDC) can work well with decentralized finance (DeFi), and they have a lot of potential to boost DeFi adoption, according to a Swiss central bank official.

Among many various types of digital currencies, it is CBDC that could provide more stability and lower risks to the development of DeFi, according to Thomas Moser, a governing board member at the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

In order to grow, DeFi needs stable money, which is why stablecoins were invented, and stablecoins clearly helped DeFi to become more popular, Moser told Cointelegraph.

Despite being polar opposites, centralization and decentralization in digital currencies can actually work together as centralization is not bad for DeFi, Moser argued. He noted that major stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) are the most widely used stablecoins in DeFi, both of which are centralized.

“Therefore, ‘something centralized’ has already helped DeFi quite a lot,” the SNB official stated.

Unlike Tether or Circle, a CBDC would entail lower risks for DeFi than a redeemable stablecoin because central bank money “does not entail counterparty risk,” Moser said. “A central bank cannot go bankrupt, since it issues irredeemable money,” he added.

Other types of digital currencies, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) or Ether (ETH), are also irredeemable, which implies no counterparty risk. However, their price is not stable enough for supporting sustainable DeFi growth, the official noted.

“Algorithmic stablecoins would also not entail counterparty risk, but so far, we have not seen successful algorithmic stablecoins,” Moser said, referring to the collapse of TerraUSD (UST) in May 2022. “A CBDC could provide more stability and lower risks than stablecoins,” the official added.

Moser’s remarks came shortly after the SNB and the blockchain firm Cypherium published a joint paper on blockchain technology and CBDC on Sept. 26. The study concluded that CBDCs could serve as a useful tool for stabilizing the cryptocurrency economy, including the DeFi sector.

The paper specifically mentioned recent remarks by Banque de France governor François Villeroy de Galhau, who argued that CBDC is “not about the big brother of central banks threatening the free world of decentralized finance.” He stressed that CBDCs would rather be about “providing further tools to help make DeFi successful and sustainable.”

Cypherum CEO Sky Guo expressed confidence that the combination of DeFi and CBDC technology is “destined to happen,” stating:

“DeFi is fully automatic and can free CBDC from human limits. With CBDC used in DeFi, we can expect hundreds and trillions of dollars of liquidity brought into this market, big institutions getting in this space and real-world assets moving on-chain.”

The SNB’s study is not the first time for a central bank to think about possible interactions of CBDCs and DeFi. In April 2022, central bank officials discussed potential interactivity between DeFi-based markets and CBDC at a conference co-hosted by the Bank for International Settlements’ Innovation Hub and the SNB.

Related: DeFi can take a hint from traditional finance to lower risks, says ex-Morgan Stanley exec

As previously reported, the general public has been largely opposing the idea of CBDC due to the associated lack of privacy, with many referring to such projects as “slavecoins.” It remains to be seen whether central banks are really willing to contribute to the DeFi adoption because the world has not yet seen too much support for crypto from central banks.

The news comes amid major European banks continuing to test cross-border retail and remittance payments with CBDC. On Sept. 28, the Swedish, Norwegian and Israeli central banks announced another project to test international payments in CBDC.

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The Caribbean is pioneering CBDCs with mixed results amid banking difficulties

Emtech’s Cadet talks about CBDCs in emerging markets as the U.S. Congress and United Nations hear about the traditional banking crises.

The Caribbean region is in a tough situation for banking. The 35 nations comprising the region face challenges common to many tiny economies, such as dollarization and dependence on foreign trade and remittances. In addition, the increasingly common banking practice called de-risking is taking a heavy toll. So, it is probably no coincidence that the region is also at the forefront of digital currency adoption. 

Carmelle Cadet, the founder and CEO of banking solutions company Emtech, is a native of Haiti who has experience working with central banks in Haiti and Ghana. Her company is also a member of the new Digital Dollar Project Technical Sandbox Program that is exploring aspects of a United States central bank digital currency (CBDC). Cadet spoke to Cointelegraph about her experiences in the Caribbean and the United States. She said rolling out functioning CBDCs in the region is “a long game.” It is easy to see why.

The risks of banking in the Caribbean

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) lists countries that are under special monitoring for money laundering or other illegal activities. Although only four countries in the region were on the so-called gray list as of June, the list seems to cast a pall over the region as a whole. Because of it, extra due diligence efforts are required when large international banks provide services such as settlement to smaller local banks in those countries in a process called correspondent relationships. 

Additional due diligence drives up international banks’ costs of doing business. Banks often choose to sever ties with banks in gray-listed countries rather than pay the increased costs. That decision is referred to as de-risking. Some Caribbean countries have lost 50% of their correspondent relationships, with severe consequences for their economies and societies.

The United States House of Representatives Financial Services Committee held hearings titled “When Banks Leave: The Impacts of De-Risking on the Caribbean and Strategies for Ensuring Financial Access” on Sept. 14. Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Amor Mottley and Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago Keith Rowley attended the hearings.

Mottley described what banking services are like in the region:

“When we were growing up, opening a bank account was part of our rites of passage in becoming an adult. Today […] we spend weeks, and businesses that come into our region spend weeks and months, just to open a bank account.”

Ten days after the Congressional hearings, on Sept. 24, Bahamian Prime Minister Philip Davis brought the issue of de-risking before the United Nations General Assembly. “Why are all the countries being targeted small and vulnerable and former colonies of European states?” he asked. The Bahamas is not currently on the gray list. 

CBDCs to the rescue?

According to the Atlantic Council CBDC tracker, three CBDCs have been launched in the Caribbean region: the Bahamas’ Sand Dollar, Jamaica’s Jam-Dex and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank DCash in seven of its eight member states. 

The council lists Haiti’s Digital Gourde as under development. Cadet said Emtech and its Haitian partner HaitiPay presented a proof-of-concept for a CBDC at the Haitian Embassy in Washington on May 5.

Cadet, who immigrated to the U.S. in her youth, was an executive in the IBM blockchain division when the Bahamas made its request for proposals for the Sand Dollar. She was “by luck a little bit in the front seat.” In 2019, when Haiti was “making the rounds with a roadshow” to develop its CBDC, “I thought ‘if the Bahamas can do it, why not Haiti?’” Cadet said. She added, “Kudos to the central bank governor for seeing the possibilities.” She left IBM and founded Emtech.

The first financial technology companies appeared in Haiti in 2010, after the earthquake that ravaged the country, and technologies relying on mobile wallets took the lead, Haitian Central Bank Governor Jean Baden Dubois said in 2021. Dubois said mobile telephone penetration was about 60% in 2008 and “likely higher in 2021.”

Emtech’s proposed CBDC design functioned online and through mobile telephone unstructured supplementary service data. The rollout of a Haitian CBDC would include device distribution through a partnership with a charity, Cadet said. The use of telecommunications rather than data networks to support CBDC functions is a hallmark of emerging economies, she added.

Dubois said the Haitian Central Bank saw a CBDC as a means to achieve greater policy efficiency and increased transparency, which would help the FATF gray-listed country meet Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism standards.

“Dollarization undermines the central bank and its mission of stability,” Cadet said. “Using CBDCs for cross border payments would provide better liquidity and visibility on reserves.”

The peculiarities of emerging markets

Cadet said there are a number of ways in which a CBDC design for an emerging market will differ from one intended for a developed market. Developed markets can “afford to go slower,” she said, as they work toward a real-time settlement, while in emerging markets, CBDCs have a more pressing mission of inclusion. 

Related: UK Startup Puts Haitian Farmers and Their Crops On the Blockchain

Emerging markets have “less baggage,” she continued, so fintechs can thrive. In developed markets, commercial banking can make adoption easier, but the CBDC has more legacy systems to integrate with.

Be that as it may, it is not clear how much success CBDCs are enjoying in the Caribbean. The Sand Dollar, commonly considered the first CBDC when it launched in 2020, had only about $300,000 worth of electronic currency in circulation and 30,000 digital wallets in July 2022, with about 845 merchants accepting it. The Bahamian government makes regular efforts to promote it.

DCash, introduced in April 2021, crashed in January and was down for almost two months. A spokesperson for Grenada-based conglomerate Geo. F. Huggins & Co., the first company to accept a DCash payment, said during the outage that the CBDC represented a “minimal” portion of its sales.

Cadet said her company had been in talks with the Haitian Central Bank “to understand licensing and risk” for about a year before its proof-of-concept presentation and has been in touch with the bank since then. She said the company is now waiting for the central bank to issue a request for proposals for vendors.

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Israel, Norway and Sweden central banks partner with BIS to explore CBDC payments

The Project Icebreaker initiative aimed to improve cross-border payments by reducing costs and increasing speed and transparency, with a final report expected in Q1 2023.

The Bank for International Settlements, or BIS, has reported it will be partnering with the central banks of Israel, Norway and Sweden to explore international retail and remittance payments use cases for central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs.

In a Sept. 28 announcement, the BIS said the collaboration — named Project Icebreaker — will involve the bank’s Innovation Hub Nordic Centre testing key functions and the technological feasibility of interlinking domestic CBDC systems. The central banks will develop a new hub in which the Central Bank of Norway, the Bank of Israel, and Sveriges Riksbank can connect their proof-of-concept CBDC systems.

Beju Shah, the head of the Innovation Hub Nordic Centre, said the experiment will explore CBDC designs and architecture, as well as related policy concerns. The project aimed to improve cross-border payments using CBDCs by reducing costs and increasing speed and transparency, with a final report expected in the first quarter of 2023.

“Efficient and accessible cross-border payments are of extreme importance for a small and open economy like Israel and this was identified as one of the main motivations for a potential issuance of a digital shekel,” said Bank of Israel deputy governor Andrew Abir. “The results of the project will be very important in guiding our future work on the digital shekel.”

The BIS reported on Sept. 27 that a CBDC pilot involving the central banks of Hong Kong, Thailand, China and the United Arab Emirates was “successful” after a month-long test facilitating $22 million worth of cross-border transactions. Other countries’ central banks have launched similar initiatives related to improving cross-border settlements, as institutions in Australia, Singapore, Malaysia and South Africa announced in September 2021.

Related: Australian pilot CBDC test for eAUD to commence mid-2023: RBA White Paper

The Central Bank of Norway, the Bank of Israel and Sveriges Riksbank have all been considering the benefits of rolling out their respective CBDCs, while China reportedly expanded the trials of its digital yuan to larger swaths of the country in September. In the United States, lawmakers and regulators have taken different approaches to explore the digital dollar, while a March executive order from President Joe Biden had government departments and agencies research the benefits and risks of a CBDC.

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Settlements With China — Russia Plans Next Step for Digital Ruble

Settlements With China — Russia Plans Next Step for Digital RubleRussia intends to use its digital ruble, to be introduced early next year, for payments with its key ally, China. Authorities in Moscow hope other nations will be willing to adopt the Russian digital currency in trade, which will allow the country to circumvent sanctions imposed over the Ukraine war. Russian Federation Eyes Digital Ruble […]

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