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CME Fedwatch

CME Fedwatch Favors Half-Point Cut Ahead of FOMC Meeting

CME Fedwatch Favors Half-Point Cut Ahead of FOMC MeetingIn just 40 days, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will gather to decide whether the central bank will lower the benchmark interest rate. This pivotal moment occurs two days after the 2024 U.S. Election Day. As it stands, CME futures data suggests that a half-point reduction is currently viewed as more probable than […]

Trump Inherits Biden’s Economic Time Bomb: Debt Crisis, Inflation, and Global Tensions Await

Markets Await Fed Decision: Bitcoin Spikes, Gold Drops, Stocks Wobble

Markets Await Fed Decision: Bitcoin Spikes, Gold Drops, Stocks WobbleBitcoin saw its value leap to $61,331 on Tuesday, just a day before members of the U.S. Federal Reserve convene to discuss a potential rate cut for federal funds. While BTC posted a 5% gain, stock markets exhibited mixed signals, hovering near previous highs, and gold dipped more than half a percent that day. Bitcoin […]

Trump Inherits Biden’s Economic Time Bomb: Debt Crisis, Inflation, and Global Tensions Await

Markets Bet Big on a 25bps Fed Rate Cut—Low Odds for a Bigger Reduction

Markets Bet Big on a 25bps Fed Rate Cut—Low Odds for a Bigger ReductionOn Sept. 2, 2024, or roughly 16 days before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, an overwhelming majority of the market seems to be predicting the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Sept. 18. The U.S. federal funds rate is currently at 5.25%-5.50%, which […]

Trump Inherits Biden’s Economic Time Bomb: Debt Crisis, Inflation, and Global Tensions Await

Polymarket Bets 10% on 2024 US Recession, Analyst Skeptical of Rate Cut’s Impact

Polymarket Bets 10% on 2024 US Recession, Analyst Skeptical of Rate Cut’s ImpactThe prediction market Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest that a rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September is highly likely. However, BCA Research’s chief asset allocation strategist, Garry Evans, argues that even if rates are lowered, it won’t stop a recession in the United States. On the flip side, […]

Trump Inherits Biden’s Economic Time Bomb: Debt Crisis, Inflation, and Global Tensions Await

Fedwatch Tool and Polymarket Indicate Strong Odds for September Rate Cut

Fedwatch Tool and Polymarket Indicate Strong Odds for September Rate CutRight now, the market is leaning towards the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark interest rate at the Sept. 18, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CME Fedwatch tool currently indicates a 75% likelihood of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut. Over on Polymarket, bettors are even more confident, showing an 82% chance of […]

Trump Inherits Biden’s Economic Time Bomb: Debt Crisis, Inflation, and Global Tensions Await

US Consumer Price Index Rises 0.1% in March, Annual Inflation up 5% From Last Year

US Consumer Price Index Rises 0.1% in March, Annual Inflation up 5% From Last YearOn Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which noted that inflation rose 0.1% last month in March and 5% from a year ago. Annual inflation has dropped for nine consecutive months following the nine times the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate. U.S. Inflation Cools […]

Trump Inherits Biden’s Economic Time Bomb: Debt Crisis, Inflation, and Global Tensions Await