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Bitcoin is beating Warren Buffett’s ‘crypto bet’ in 2023

Bitcoin's rebound in 2023 has also seen Coinbase stock gaining over 100% year-to-date, boosting Cathie Wood's ARK portfolio.

In 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) and Cathie Wood's Coinbase (COIN) investment are finally outperforming Warren Buffett's popular "crypto bet" in Brazil's fintech giant Nubank (NU). 

Bitcoin vs. crypto-exposure stocks NU, COIN

As of March 17, Bitcoin's price is up nearly 55% year-to-date (YTD). In comparison, Nubank has risen by only 26%. Meanwhile, another crypto-exposure asset, namely Coinbase stock (COIN), has seen the biggest rebound of the three, rising over 100% YTD. 

BTC/USD and COIN versus NU yearly performance. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, Buffett's investment has fared better than COIN over the past 12 months.

As of March 17, NU is down 38% year-over-year compared to COIN's 61.76%, nearly equal to Bitcoin's 37% losses in the same period.

Warren Buffett sticks by his neobank investment

Buffett's investment firm Berkshire Hathaway purchased $1.50 billion worth of class-A Nubank stock in two separate rounds in July 2021 and February 2022.

The news came as a surprise to many since Buffett is a well-known cryptocurrency critic, and Nubank offers crypto trading services via one of its wings called Nucripto. In May 2022, the bank said that it would allocate 1% of its net assets to Bitcoin.

“This move reinforces the company’s conviction in Bitcoin’s current and future potential in disrupting financial services in the region,” Nubank said at the time.

But despite Nubank's crypto exposure and NU's price decline, Buffett has not sold a single share, according to Berkshire's latest annual earnings report.

The decision to keep holding NU through a rough market likely coincides with Nubank's growth in the Latin American banking sector.

Nu Holdings, the parent company of Nubank, reported a solid 2022 with 140% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 38% year-over-year rise in active customers. 

Cathie Wood doubling down on COIN in 2023

The same cannot be said about Coinbase's earnings in 2022 with its 57% drop in year-over-year revenue.

Related: Crypto acted as safe haven amid SVB and Signature bank run: Cathie Wood

But ARK Invest CEO, Cathie Wood, appears unfazed by continuing to buy COIN shares via her ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) in 2023. The COIN buys, in particular, account for roughly 30% of all the stock purchased so far this year.

COIN weight across ARK ETFs portfolios. Source: Ark Invest

As a result, Coinbase has become Wood's fifth-largest holding on record worth nearly $670 million at the time of writing. 

Holding Bitcoin a better strategy?

Comparing Bitcoin's price performance with the market debut of Coinbase and Nu Holdings reaffirms that BTC not only regularly outperform stocks, but also crypto-exposure stocks. Although exceptions have been seen, such as with the Bitcoin mining stock boom in 2021. 

But overall, holding Bitcoin is proving to be a better strategy year-over-year, and likely with more upside potential, than traditional stocks. 

Notably, NU has dropped by more than 50% since its market debut in December 2021. Since then, BTC has fared better with a 44% decline in the same period. 

NU's returns since market debut vs. BTC. Source: TradingView

Similarly, COIN is down 80% since its IPO in April 2021. The same down-cycle, however, has seen Bitcoin only losing around 50%, emerging as better performer overall against crypto-exposure stocks such as Coinbase and Nu Holdings.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Counterpunch: Russia Reveals Plan to Utilize Frozen Western Assets

Bitcoin price risks $23K rerun as Coinbase stock falls over Silvergate

Bitcoin wobbles over fresh concerns over crypto firm solvency, but BTC price performance remains stronger than Coinbase and Silvergate bank stock.

Bitcoin (BTC) erased early-month gains on March 2 as fresh market uncertainty erupted over solvency of crypto bank Silvergate.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price avoids Silvergate, Coinbase stock slip

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $23,206 on Bitstamp, down around 1.5% on the day.

The pair came under pressure as rumors swirled over the fate of Silvergate, which lost United States exchange Coinbase as a client in a decision the latter said came out of "an abundance of caution."

Silvergate had suffered as a result of the FTX implosion, delaying its 10-K report this week and warning that it could be "less than well capitalized." 

The shares of parent company Silvergate Capital were down 40% on the day at the time of writing.

Coinbase also felt the pressure, with Coinbase Global (COIN) shares losing 9.65%, with BTC price action itself nonetheless avoiding major knock-on losses.

"Silvergate potentially going bankrupt, pushing prices down a bit more. On the other hand; people piling into positions since the news and no real movement on Bitcoin," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, reacted.

"This might be an assumption people are heavily skewed to the short side here. Time for a squeeze."

Popular trader and analyst Stack Hodler had a similar view, suggesting that current events should not form a reflect on Bitcoin itself.

"Coinbase, Silvergate, Bank of America, and the Federal Reserve could all implode overnight and it wouldn't change the number of Sats I hold in cold storage," he told Twitter followers.

"The beauty of holding #Bitcoin without counter-party risk."

Focusing on immediate price performance, however, others were in risk-off mode, looking for a reclaim of higher levels before considering long positions.

"Finding resistance at a logical place- still think a visit to the ltf support (green line) makes the most sense on low time frames before we decide which direction to go in," a slightly more bullish Credible Crypto forecast alongside a chart with target areas.

"I will also add that until/unless we break the lows at $21,373 I lean bullish (green path)."
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/ Twitter

Inflation reports disappointing for risk assets

Another point of concern came from macroeconomic data on the day, this showing inflation remaining more persistent than hoped for by central banks.

Related: 3 BTC price hurdles Bitcoin bulls are failing to clear in 2023

Both the U.S. and European Union produced unsavory reports, with the former showing unemployment not heating up.

"Initial Jobless & Continuing Jobless Claims came in cooler than expected," Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, summarized, arguing that the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell may now have an additional incentive to keep interest rates climbing - a key headwind for crypto and risk assets.

"This is the exact opposite of what the FED wants to see to tame inflation. IMO, this is going to strengthen JPow's resolve to go higher for longer. Remember Higher and Longer are both on a sliding scale."

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, bets on a larger rate hike in March than in February stood at 32% after the jobless claims data.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Counterpunch: Russia Reveals Plan to Utilize Frozen Western Assets

Bitcoin beats owning COIN stock by 20% since Coinbase IPO

Investing directly in Bitcoin turned out to be a better bet than owning Coinbase stock since its IPO.

Buying a Coinbase stock (COIN) to gain indirect exposure in the Bitcoin (BTC) market has been a bad strategy so far compared to simply holding BTC. 

Notably, COIN is down by nearly 50% to almost $186, if measured from the opening rate on its IPO on April 14, 2021. In comparison, Bitcoin outperformed the Coinbase stock by logging fewer losses in the same period — a little over 30% as it dropped from nearly $65,000 to around $41,700

BTC/USD (orange) vs. COIN price (blue). Source: TradingView

What's bothering Coinbase?

The correlation between Coinbase and Bitcoin has been largely positive to date, however, suggesting that many investors consider them as assets with similar value propositions. That is primarily due to the buzz around how COIN could become a simpler onboarding experience for investors into the crypto sector compared to buying Bitcoin, Ether (ETH), and other digital assets.

COIN's correlation with BTC on daily basis. Source: TradingView

But the COIN product is facing increasing competition with the arrival of crypto-based exchange-traded products (ETP), mining stocks, and similar crypto-enabled firms listed across Wall Street indexes. This may have reduced its demand as the go-to asset for gaining crypto exposure.

Related: Bitcoin faces new ‘milestone’ in 2022 as new forecast predicts BTC price ‘in the millions’

Additionally, COIN faces downside risks due to its depressive forecasts for FY22. Coinbase stated in its latest earnings report that the crypto volatility could turn 2022 into an unprofitable year, noting their adjusted EBITDA losses could come to be around $500 million if its monthly transaction users come at the lower end of its guidance range.

Coinbase's adjusted EBITDA margins. Source: JR Research

Jere Ong, the principal analyst and founder of JR Research, noted that 96% of Coinbase's total revenue in Q4/2021 came from the fees charged on retail transactions, which highlights its business model's "inherent weakness." Excerpts from his report:

"We believe it offers a short-term buying opportunity for speculative investors. But, we do not encourage investors to hold COIN stock for the long term unless you have a very high conviction of its execution.

Bitcoin's risks are entirely different

Bitcoin is a different beast when compared to the shares of centralized company like Coinbase.

Absolute scarcity, censorship-resilient decentralized ledger, and gold-like properties as a potential hedge against-inflation in the digital age are just some of the concepts driving up BTC price today. 

As a result, analysts and strategists predict Bitcoin to reach anywhere from zero to "millions" per 1 BTC, depending on who you ask.

Elsewhere, most of the crypto-exposure stocks have also suffered more compared to Bitcoin. Namely, Nasdaq-listed mining firms Canaan, whose stock value fell by nearly 80% year-over-year, and Riot Blockchain, which dropped 67.55% in the same period.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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