Bitcoin ETFs or not, don’t expect a ‘sexy’ crypto bull run: Concordium founder

September 22, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Experts remain divided on when the next bull market is set to kick off, but they all agree on one thing: the next big rally won’t look like the last one.

The next crypto bull run will look nothing like the last one and investors should tame their expectations of an imminent rocketing of cryptocurrency prices.

At least that’s what Lars Seier Christensen, the founder of enterprise blockchain Concordium told Cointelegraph in a recent interview.

As the majority of the crypto market looks to the swathe of proposed spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds with bullishness, Christiensen is doubtful their approval will be an immediately meaningful driver for the crypto markets.

“Even if you do get a Bitcoin rally — I don't think you should naturally assume that everything is going to rally with it.”

“Does that necessarily mean that Ethereum and a lot of the older altcoins are going to rally on the back of it too? I think that's nearly certain not going to happen,” he added.

NEXT DATES TO WATCH:

Middle of October are the next major days to watch. Namely October 16th. (& @GlobalXETFs' Oct 7)

Also, reminder that we fully expected delays on this round of spot #Bitcoin ETF filings. Would have been a shock if they were approved this week. pic.twitter.com/i14fg8FWun
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 31, 2023

Christiensen said that while digital asset prices have dampened over the last 18 months, in contrast, there’s an unabated interest in blockchain technology from the corporate side.

This means that the next big step for the industry won't be marked by a particularly “sexy” rally, where prices of crypto assets surge like they did in 2021 — rather a more subdued growth that will occur gradually over the next 18 months, noting:

“The only reason corporate types need a crypto asset is in order to execute what they want to do on a given blockchain. So, I think it's very clear that you need to be aware that they're not in desperate need for a given crypto to increase significantly in value."

Not everyone would be inclined to agree with Christensen, however.

Ben Simpson, the founder of crypto education platform Collective Shift said there’s a wealth of data and indicators that suggest that we’re already witnessing the initial stages of a Bitcoin bull market.

“The drawdown from All-Time High chart and Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) suggest we're in the final stages of accumulation, often a precursor to a bull market,” explained Simpson.

When it comes to the assets most primed for a major boom, Simpson believes the next bull market will blow wind into the sails of Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and application-specific tokens and sectors like gaming.

“DeFi tokens are risky but offer significant upside, and Bitcoin I believe emerges as the 'silent winner' amid broader adoption and one I'm most bullish on.”

“A Bitcoin ETF won’t have any impact on the price” pic.twitter.com/ArSTwskEec
— Ben Simpson (@bensimpsonau) September 13, 2023

The last two-year period has been tough for the crypto industry. An increasingly hawkish federal reserve combined with a number of high-profile collapses including the likes of FTX and Celsius Network, have seen investment in the industry dwindle, bringing down the prices of crypto assets along with it.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve deciding to press pause on any interest rate hikes earlier in the week, eToro Markets analyst Josh Gilbert views the broader macro outlook with a sense of optimism.

BREAKING : THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS JUST PAUSED IT’S INTEREST RATE HIKES AND WILL KEEP INTEREST RATES AT THE CURRENT LEVEL pic.twitter.com/meRkOhhWfh
— GURGAVIN (@gurgavin) September 20, 2023

“We’ve finally got an improving macro environment with rate cuts on the horizon from central banks globally. As rates begin to fall and inflation subsides, investors will take on more risk, deploying more capital into financial markets — and crypto will be front and center,” he said.

Like many market commentators in recent months, Gilbert asserted that next year looks primed for a rally.

“2024 could be a strong year for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The bitcoin halving is the centerpiece of this theory and it’s the major catalyst optimistic investors are focused on.”

However, Tina Teng, a market analyst from CMC Markets explained that it’s far too early to start worrying about whether or not massive gains are on the horizon. Instead, investors should be bracing themselves for a new wave of uncertainty.

“It’s too early to say that it's the start of a bull market in crypto. This would depend on the macro environment and hinge on whether or not central banks are willing to end their rate hike cycles to provide enough liquidity to the markets,” said Teng.

“Tightening monetary policy is behind the decline in riskier asset classes, such as startups, small caps, and cryptocurrencies. In history, the cryptocurrency market’s boom happened during the Fed’s rate cut cycle but not a hiking cycle.”

“The rampant government bond yields and inverted bond yields repeatedly flash warning signals for economic uncertainty ahead.”

#Bitcoin is racing down to realized loss on the 50-day moving average of the RPV ratio.

And if previous cycles tell us anything, this is the last time it happens until the next cycle top!

Each cycle, Bitcoin makes a… pic.twitter.com/Rrw7wYKbvA
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) September 1, 2023

Teng says for an imminent bull market thesis to be validated, Bitcoin needs to break through the 50-day moving average and catch a ride on another surge upwards.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Next Crypto Bull Run Will Start From the East, Says Gemini Co-Founder

February 21, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Report Shows Financial Troubles Plagued Bankman-Fried’s Alameda Research as Early as 2018

January 2, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin bottomed as ‘everyone who could go bankrupt has gone bankrupt’

December 12, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Arthur Hayes

Former BitMEX CEO thinks the Bitcoin price could have reached the bottom after most of the “irresponsible entities” have all run out of Bitcoin to sell.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, thinks the worst might be over for Bitcoin (BTC) this cycle as the "largest most irresponsible entities" have run out of BTC to sell.

"Looking forward, pretty much everyone who could go bankrupt has gone bankrupt,” he said in the Dec. 11 interview with crypto advocate and podcaster Scott Melker.

Hayes elaborates on his stance by explaining that when centralized lending firms (CELs) have financial troubles, they will often call in loans first, then sell BTC first because it operates as the “reserve asset of crypto” and “the most pristine asset and the most liquid.”

"When you look at the balance sheet of any of these of the heroes, there's no Bitcoin on it because what do they do, they sold the Bitcoin as they were going bankrupt, they sold the Bitcoin during the wave before they went bankrupt."

Hayes voiced a similar argument in a Dec. 10 blog post, explaining that while this "credit crunch is ongoing," large physical sales of BTC are taking place on exchanges from both CELs trying to avoid bankruptcy and trading firms who have had loans recalled and must liquidate their positions.

Let's try this again.

In "PEMDAS" I argue that $BTC has bottomed, and then talk about which type of #crypto's I will hold while waiting for the money printer to go brrr once more.https://t.co/JNAQ7VK0Ec pic.twitter.com/IV4Td1UTda
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) December 9, 2022

"This is why the price of Bitcoin swoons before CELs go bankrupt. That’s the big move," he said.

"I can’t demonstratively prove that all Bitcoin held by these failed institutions was sold during the multiple crashes, but it does look as if they tried their best to liquidate the most liquid crypto collateral they could right before they went under."

Hayes believes the large-scale liquidations are at an end, though, explaining in the blog post that “There is no reason why you would hold on if you had an urgent need for fiat."

Following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, and the subsequent fallout, the market is still deep in the grips of a crypto winter, but Hayes believes the market could see some recovery in 2023.

"I believe the US Treasury market will become dysfunctional at some point in 2023 due to the Fed’s tightening monetary policies," he said, adding: "At that point, I expect the Fed will turn the printer bank on, and then boom shaka-laka — Bitcoin and all other risk assets will spike higher."

Raoul Pal says ‘reasonable chance’ crypto market cap could 100X by 2030

January 6, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

“I think there’s a reasonable chance of this being a $250 trillion asset class, which is 100x from here,” said Raoul Pal.

Former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal thinks that the crypto market cap could increase 100X by the end of this decade.

At the time of writing, the total market cap of the global crypto sector stands at $2.2 trillion, and Pal told podcast Bankless Brasil “there’s a reasonable chance” this figure could grow to around $250 trillion if the crypto network adoption models continue on their current trajectory.

Pal drew comparisons between the current benchmarks of other markets and asset classes such as equities, bonds and real estate, noting that they all have a market cap between “$250-$350 trillion.”

“If I look at the total derivatives market, it’s $1 quadrillion. I think there’s a reasonable chance of this being a $250 trillion asset class, which is 100X from here, which would be the largest growth of any asset class in all of history in the shortest period of time.”

“That will pretty much dovetail in with the idea that 3.5 billion people are using it — that’s just extrapolating the growth numbers of the network. So if [there are] 3.5 billion users in 2030, well the market cap’s going to be something like $250 trillion,” he added.

One thing is for certain, it's not going to get there in a straight line upward.The total crypto market cap has dropped 6.8% over the past 24 hours amid a significant pullback across most major assets. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Binance Coin (BNB) are 7.6%, 9% and 9.1% within that same time frame.

The recent downturn may even be a surprise to Pal, during an interview on Dec. 27, the investor predicted that Bitcoin would have a strong start to 2022 as he believed at the time a period of institutional sell-offs and end of year profit-taking was over.

“It looks like they’re done because the market has been chopping around for the past week, which was the traditional last week of everybody squaring their books,” he said.

In November, Pal predicted that the bull run won’t end in December like the previous cycles of 2015 and 2017, and will instead be extended until around June. Pal cited heavy institutional inflows in Q1 as a major reason behind this.

Crypto bull run