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$13K Bitcoin price predictions emerge with BTC falling below historic trendline

July 20, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The 50-week simple moving average earlier offered incredible support to Bitcoin's long-term bullish bias. But bears took it convincingly during the Monday sell-off.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices broke below a long-standing support wave, which was instrumental in keeping its strong bullish bias intact after March 2020's crypto market crash.

Dubbed as the 50-week simple moving average, or 50-week SMA, the wave represents the average price traders have paid for Bitcoin over the past 50 weeks. Over the years, and in 2020, its invalidation as price floor has contributed to pushing the Bitcoin market into severe bearish cycles.

*Bitcoin price breakdowns below 50-week SMA through the history. Source: TradingView.com*

For instance, the 50-week SMA acted as support during the 2018 bear market. The wave capped Bitcoin from undergoing deeper downtrends—between February 2018 and May 2018—as its price corrected from the then-record high of $20,000.

Similarly, the wave provided Bitcoin incredible support during its correction from the $15,000-high in 2019. Moreover, it held well as a price floor until March 2020, when the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic caused a global market crash.

Fractal targets $12-$13K

Pseudonymous chartist Bitcoin Master flashed concerns about Bitcoin's potential to undergo an 80% average price decline upon breaking bearish on its 50-day SMA. The analyst noted that—if the said fractal plays out—BTC/USD rates could crash to as low as $13,000.

#Bitcoin just tagged the 50-week simple moving average, let's see if the coin doesn't break tradition of bouncing at least 50% ($47k) from it before making the usual 80% decline ($13k) from ATH.
— Bitcoin Master (@drei4u) July 14, 2021

#bitcoin dropping after the weekly candle opened below the structure I’ve been watching for a few weeks now.

I expect a bounce between $24k - $29k largely due to the CME gap at $24615.

After that, my guess at a bear market bottom would be $12k give or take $2k either side. pic.twitter.com/aMi2M45bmf
— Keith Wareing (@officiallykeith) July 19, 2021

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence's senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone also highlighted the 50-week SMA in a tweet published earlier in July, albeit recalling the wave's ability to withhold selling pressure. The analyst recommended that investors should not dump their Bitcoin holdings right away on initial dips below the wave.

"Selling Bitcoin on initial dips below its 50-week moving average in the past has proven a good way to lose money, even in bear markets," McGlone explained.

Bitcoin market analysts are mixed

The latest Bitcoin dip came in the wake of a global risk-on market decline, driven by fears that the highly-transmissible Delta variant of the Covid-19 would slow down the recovery generated by the reopening of economies.

Vijay Ayyar, head of business development at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, noted that Bitcoin could drop further. In his comments to Bloomberg, the former Google executive said the BTC/USD exchange rates could fall to as low as $20,000. Nonetheless, he anticipated the pair to retest $40,000 on the next bounce.

“We’re going to need to form another base first before resuming another bull trend,” Ayyar noted.

“We are going to be ranging between $20,000 and $40,000 for the rest of the year.”

Jehan Chu, the founder of cryptocurrency-focused venture capital and trading firm Kenetic Capital, placed a safe downside target near $25,000 but warned about accelerated sell-offs should bulls fail to log a rebound from the said level. He said:

“Q1′s crypto market momentum has stalled and is threatening further reversal potentially below the $25K levels."

Strong fundamentals and bullish signals remain

However, another analyst offered a different and more optimistic perspective on the current Bitcoin position.

James Wo, founder & CEO of the global crypto investment firm Digital Finance Group, highlighted on-chain indicators, including an ongoing decline in exchange inflows and active wallet addresses, as a reason to stay bullish on Bitcoin.

*Bitcoin net position change across all exchanges: Glassnode*

"Looking at these on-chain indicators, we can say that the majority of investors are waiting for major signals to enter the market again," Wo told Cointelegraph.

Data provided by CryptoQuant, a South Korea-based blockchain analytics firm, also provided a bullish setup for Bitcoin, citing the cryptocurrency's MVRV.

In detail, MVRV represents the ratio of an asset's market capitalization divided by realized capitalization. When the outcome is too high, traders may interpret the Bitcoin price as overvalued, thereby implying selling pressure. On the other hand, when the MVRV value is too low, traders may treat Bitcoin prices as undervalued, implying buying pressure.

*Bitcoin MVRV has reached September 2020 low. Source: CryptoQuant*

"Buying [Bitcoin] at this same level in the past cycle was seen between January to March 2017," noted one of the CryptoQuant analysts, adding:

"It does not sell at the bottom but prepares ammunition for the bottom. Short-term data offer the probability of test at support, good exposure opportunity."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin bull outlines 7 steps to more fiscal stimulus and higher BTC prices

July 20, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's drop below $30,000 has sparked worries that it is heading to $20,000 next. But is such a massive drop feasible against the current macro fundamentals?

A recent sell-off in the Bitcoin (BTC) market pushed its prices below the key psychological support of $30,000.

While the cryptocurrency's move downhill prompted many analysts, including Luno exchange's Vijay Nayyar and Kinetic Capital's Jehan Chu, to predict a further depressive move below $25,000, Anthony Pompliano offered a contrasting bullish outlook.

The Morgan Creek Digital Assets founder pitted risk-on markets against the fears of the fast-spreading Delta variant of the Covid-19. He noted that governments, on the whole, would introduce "more aggressive monetary stimulus" programs should the new coronavirus strain spread at the scale of its alpha version.

"History is not necessarily an indicator of the future, but it is hard to imagine a scenario where if we had a second wave of lockdowns, we wouldn’t also get more aggressive monetary stimulus efforts," Pompliano wrote.

"If that occurred, we would likely see all assets continue to go higher and higher."

In saying so, Pompliano envisioned that the road to more dollar liquidity would like come in seven successive stages, as shown in the snapshot below:

*The seven potential stages ahead as the new Delta variant clouds recovery hopes. Source: Anthony Pompliano Newsletter*

Risk-on FOMO expected

Pompliano's statements appeared as the Bitcoin market fell in sync with other risk-on assets across the globe on Monday.

For instance, all the three Wall Street indexes—the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones—logged their steepest declines in weeks. Also, gold at one point in time fell to as low as $1,795.12 an ounce but recovered to $1,812.145 an ounce to close the session.

*Bitcoin slipped in tandem with US equity market on Monday. Source: TradingView.com*

Meanwhile, the U.S. government bond rallied alongside the dollar, showing that investors were heading for safe-havens amid the global market turmoil.

Behind the rout, global media reported, was a growing list of worries about the recovery. In detail, the Delta variant of the Covid-19 has spread rapidly, reigniting the dialogue in several countries about whether authorities should reimpose lockdown and curb economic activity.

"The hope was that [the Covid-19] vaccines would provide us with the endgame," Mohammed Kazmi, a portfolio manager at Union Bancaire Privée, told Financial Times. "Now investors are looking at the UK and there’s a bit of fear with regards to reopening so aggressively when cases are still so high."

Kazmi added that markets are now stepping from hopes of a V-shaped recovery, and are feeling uncertain about the future of their economies.

Pompliano's comments also appeared as the Federal Reserve flirted with the idea of hiking its near-zero lending rates by the end of 2023 to curb rising inflation.

Additionally, several central bank officials also favored the idea of tapering their aggressive $120B a month asset purchase program, albeit chairman Jerome Powell clarified that the Fed intends to run the quantitative easing policy hot until the U.S. economy recovers completely.

James Wo, founder & chief executive of global blockchain and digital asset investment firm Digital Finance Group also noted that even though the Bitcoin industry has encountered downside volatility during this current market cycle, the fundamentals that have driven its and other markets' value higher all across 2020 continue unaffected. He added:

"Any combination of narratives that have brought digital assets to this discounted price can be checked off of lists of FUD that would have eventually affected the price of the whole market."

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July 19, 2021 Bitcoin.com

Strong Bitcoin accumulation spotted as BTC price refuses to fall below $30K

July 11, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Glassnode data reveals that investors with a long-term risk outlook have started accumulating Bitcoin during its recent downtrend.

Bitcoin (BTC) price remained relatively flat over the weekend, inching closer to $34,000 on July 11. Nevertheless, BTC/USD has tumbled by almost 50% from its all-time high, near $65,000 in mid-April. But the massive downside move has not deterred investors from betting on the digital asset's long-term bullish outlook.

According to one of the Glassnode metrics, dubbed as Liveliness, the Bitcoin market has been noticing a shift in long-term investors' "macro hodling behavior." Hodling represents crypto investors' ritualized response to market downtrends, a meme-driven investment strategy that originated from a drunken forum post in 2013 and typo.

Meanwhile, Liveliness is the ratio of cumulative coin days destroyed to the cumulative sum of all coin days ever accumulated by the network. It varies between zero and 1, with zero representing the highest proportion of dormant Bitcoin supply, i.e., HODLing behavior. It shows that the global coin day accumulation has been outpacing coin days destroyed in on-chain activity.

*Bitcoin Liveliness ratio signals accumulation phase. Source: Glassnode*

Nonetheless, a higher degree of distribution does not necessarily predict bearish cycles. For example, between November 2020 and April 2021, the Liveliness Ratio increased alongside the Bitcoin prices, suggesting that despite lower HODLing behavior, the Bitcoin market did not enter a bearish phase.

That could be due to massive spikes in trade volumes at the beginning of this year. In the first quarter, Bitcoin trading activity, on the whole, spiked to over $6 trillion, compared to $1.14 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to data obtained from Bitcoinity.

*Monthly Bitcoin trading volumes. Source: Bitcoinity.org*

Therefore, while the long-term holders started spending their Bitcoin between November 2020 and April 2021, higher trading volumes across all crypto exchanges show that retail demand absorbed the selling pressure. But by April, as analyst Willy Woo noted, the selling overran the normal bull market buying pressure.

Speculative participants started selling off their new coins to long-term holders, Woo wrote in a newsletter published on July 2 while referring to a so-called “Rick Astley” chart that studies Bitcoin flows between strong and weak hands. Excerpts:

"It’s very clear to see that long-term holders are mopping up the speculative coins at a strong pace. It’s now a waiting game until this is reflected in the price action, the data is confidently pointing to an accumulation bottom forming."

*Bitcoin is moving from weak hands from strong hands. Source: Willy Woo Newsletter*

Bitcoin holds $30K

A spike in Bitcoin accumulation sentiment appears as the cryptocurrency continues to maintain its bullish bias above a strongly-held $30,000-support level.

*Bitcoin trend remains stuck between $30,000 and $40,000. Source: TradingView*

The BTC/USD exchange first dropped to $30,000-level on May 19, during the overall cryptocurrency market crash. Since then, the pair has tested the price floor at least four times, only to witness a strong upside rebound later. That has made $30,000 a psychological support level, which, if broken to the downside, risks crashing the Bitcoin prices to as low as $20,000.

Joel Kruger, a forex strategist at London-based investment management group LMAX, noted earlier this week that Bitcoin could revisit $20,000, for it remains under the pressure of global market sentiment. The analyst was referring to the latest meltdown in stock markets, on worries linked to the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19.

"It would be foolish to rule out the possibility for a drop back below the June low, and we think there would be a risk in that scenario where the #Bitcoin price could revisit the old record high area around $20,000," he added.

"But at that stage, we see the market very well supported."

Fractal targets $12-$13K

Bitcoin market analysts are mixed

Strong fundamentals and bullish signals remain

Risk-on FOMO expected

Bitcoin holds $30K

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