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Bitcoin difficulty and hash rate stop at nothing in their quest to surge to new levels never seen before.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be struggling at $30,000, but under the hood, all-time highs of a different kind keep coming.
The latest data shows that Bitcoin network fundamentals — difficulty and hash rate — will hit new records this week.
Bitcoin’s 2023 recovery has been about more than just BTC price action, with miners seeing a significant turnaround of their own.
As BTC/USD added 70% in Q1 alone, pressured mining participants saw some much-needed relief after the bear market squeezed profit margins to practically zero.
The comeback for miners is evident in difficulty, which among other things, reflects competition for block subsidies.
This has made new all-time highs for the past two months, and this week will be no exception. According to data from BTC.com, the difficulty will increase by approximately 2.1% on April 20, reaching 48.91 trillion.
The dizzying tally is a full 13 trillion higher than at the start of the year alone.
Additionally, Bitcoin network hash rate is also estimated to be higher than ever, with raw data from MiningPoolStats etching a new all-time high of 418 exahashes per second (EH/s) on April 18.
As Cointelegraph reported earlier this week, hash rate estimates are far from concrete and can be misleading, with calls now surfacing to reevaluate how it is measured and reported by those seeking to make bullish conclusions about BTC price strength.
However, as the old adage goes, “price follows hash rate,” and some commentators continue to watch the metric keenly as it drifts ever higher.
A key focus is Russia, stepping up mining activity over the past year to reportedly become the world’s second-largest miner in 2023, according to a report in Russian-language news outlet Kommersant.
While this has led to concerns that governments with a majority hash rate share could pressure miners to censor transactions, others believe that the real “danger” is using that hash rate for its intended purpose — earning Bitcoin.
“Adversaries hypothetically using hashrate to censor #btc transactions is a distraction from adversaries actually using hashrate to earn #btc revenue,” Pierre Rochard, vice president of research at Riot Platforms, wrote in part of a recent commentary on the topic.
A look at the current state of miner balances meanwhile shows that on a rolling 30-day basis, BTC sales are increasing.
Related: What is Bitcoin hash rate and why does it matter?
On April 18, miners decreased their Bitcoin holdings by 648 BTC compared with one month ago, according to data from Glassnode.
The changes are significant compared with sell-offs that accompanied the FTX implosion in Q4 last year.
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Bitcoin bulls have little to celebrate as BTC price action retraces more hard-won February gains.
Bitcoin (BTC) threatened to ditch $23,000 as support on Feb. 25 as an ongoing price correction strengthened into the weekend.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD attempting to make a decision on the fate of the $23,000 mark on the day.
The pair had lost almost $1,000 on Feb. 24, ending the week in a limp position along with United States equities while the dollar gained.
With “out-of-hours” trading now in place until Monday, chances for thinner liquidity to spark more pronounced moves heightened.
Analyzing the state of the Binance order book, monitoring resource Material Indicators confirmed the continued existence of a major line of bid support informally known as the “Notorious B.I.D.” and “great wall.”
Previously higher up, the owners of the liquidity had moved it lower during the week.
“If the Notorious B.I.D. wall at $22,250 holds, I expect it to be part of the weekend whale games. I would not be trying to catch knives,” Material Indicators commented.
“Expect BTC to retest lows or potentially move to price discovery before a legit Bull Market Breakout.”
Turning to the upcoming weekly close, trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile delineated $23,300 as important to hold to protect bulls' interests.
"Weekly retest of the confluent area that is the Lower High and Monthly Range High resistance is now in progress," he wrote in a Twitter update.
"Price needs to hold here for the retest to be successful. However, Weekly Close below this area would be a bearish sign."
An additional post argued that the monthly close would be a key determining factor in the overall trend, this also being just days away.
A failed #BTC Weekly retest of ~$23400 as support would mean that price remains inside the Monthly Macro Range
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) February 24, 2023
Let's see how the Monthly Closes
1M Close above ~$23400 -> likely range breakout
1M Close below -> $BTC stays in & range & could dip lower in range#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/xTAqH7pVlm
Others showed signs of frustration that Bitcoin was unable to crack $25,000 and reckon with more substantial long-term resistance levels above it.
Related: Bitcoin 2024 halving will be its ‘most important’ — Interview with Charles Edwards
"Pretty amazing that we couldn't just get an exit pump above 25K for god-tier short entry," Crypto Chase summarized.
"Everyone bullish and euphoric and price just dumps off most obvious resistance.. such a shame. Maybe still get it later on.. idk. Crypto just don't trade like it used to tbh."
A subsequent update highlighted $22,700 as a downside level to preserve for another run at $25,000.
$BTC
— Crypto Chase (@Crypto_Chase) February 24, 2023
Gonna want to see 22.7K hold if a real push above 25K for liquidity is still in the cards. Confluence of Daily S/R + 0.618 fib of current leg. pic.twitter.com/ZHShTi9SzT
A point of optimism meanwhile came in the form of Bitcoin network fundamentals, with difficulty increasing 9.95% in its latest automated readjustment — the most since mid-January.
As Cointelegraph reported, both difficulty and hash rate continue to surge to new record levels despite the slowdown in price recovery.
"Bitcoin mining became 10% more difficult last night," Maartunn, a contributing analyst to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, responded.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.