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Ethereum price retests key support level that preceded 60% gains in June 2022

Ethereum funds have witnessed inflows worth only $600,000 in the week ending April 7 compared to Bitcoin's $56 million.

Ethereum's Ether (ETH) token continued its losing streak versus Bitcoin (BTC) for the fifth day in a row as BTC's price jumped above $30,000 for the first time since June 2022.

ETH/BTC bullish reversal fails midway

On April 11, the ETH/BTC pair dropped nearly 1.6% to 0.0634 BTC to retest multi-month lows.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC level is down 6.75% from its local peak of 0.0679 BTC set six days ago. It is also just 2% above the pair's local low of 0.0622 BTC from March 20, showing that Ether's bullish reversal attempt versus Bitcoin is near failure.

Interestingly, institutional interest also appears more gravitated toward Bitcoin than Ethereum, according to CoinShares' weekly report. It shows that the Bitcoin-focused investment funds witnessed inflows worth $56 million in the week ending April 7.

Net flows into crypto funds in the week ending April 7. Source: CoinShares

In comparison, the Ethereum-based funds received only $600,000 despite the hype around its long-awaited Shanghai hard fork on April 12.

Another ETH price rebound attempt ahead?

ETH/BTC's ongoing decline has prompted it to retest its multi-month ascending trendline support (buy zone) near 0.0635 BTC for a potential price rebound toward its descending trendline resistance (sell zone) near 0.0750 BTC. 

In other words, a 16.5% price rally by June, as covered in previous analysis.

ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

The bullish reversal outlook takes cues from ETH/BTC's price rebound in July 2022 after testing the same ascending trendline as support. Notably, the pair rose by about 60% to reach the descending trendline resistance near 0.0856 BTC.

Related: 3 reasons why Ethereum price can reach $3K in Q2

Conversely, a decisive break below the ascending trendline support would raise ETH/BTC's possibility to eye its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near 0.0563 BTC, down about 10% from current price levels.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Like the ascending trendline support, the 200-week EMA was instrumental in stopping Ether's price decline versus Bitcoin in July 2022. This makes it the most probable downside target in the coming months.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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ETH hits 7-month high ahead of Shanghai and Capella upgrades

Ether has broken the $1,900 resistance level for the first time in months and is currently sitting above $1,911.

Ether (ETH) has breached $1,900 for the first time in over seven months, a week before staking withdrawals are enabled in the next major update for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

CoinMarketCap data shows the last time Ether was over $1,900 was on Aug. 16, 2022, amid a broader crypto sell-off at a time when the United States Federal Reserve was hiking the Federal Funds rate at a record pace to combat inflation.

The Ethereum Shanghai hard fork, set to occur on April 12, will implement EIP-4895 — allowing validators and stakers to withdraw staked ETH from the beacon chain — in addition to other EIPs which aim to help increase transaction speeds while reducing transaction costs.

The recent price increase could be driven by expectations that the Fed may ease up on its quantitative tightening efforts as rate increases cause cracks in the global banking industry, or by increased demand for Ether given that staking is slated to be more flexible.

While Bitcoin (BTC) has also recorded gains in recent days, ETH/BTC — a trading pair comparing the price of ETH to BTC — has increased by nearly 3% in the last week according to TradingView, suggesting both factors may be contributing to Ether’s price jump.

While Shanghai refers to the fork on the execution layer client side, Capella is the upgrade name on the consensus layer client side and is set to be executed shortly after Shanghai on April 12.

The execution layer is where all the smart contracts and protocol rules are, while the consensus layer ensures that all network validators follow these rules.

Related: 3 reasons why Ethereum price can reach $3K in Q2

It is worth noting that the price of ETH dropped sharply following the execution of The Merge on Sept. 15, 2022, where it lost just under a quarter of its value in one week according to CoinMarketCap.

ETH price action since August 2022. Source: CoinMarketCap

Despite some analysts and traders suggesting the unlocking of staked Ether will create sell pressure, what will occur following the Shanghai and Capella updates is currently speculation.

Hodler’s Digest: FTX EU opens withdrawal, Elon Musk calls for AI halt, and Binance news

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Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: ETH price risks 20% drop if key support level breaks

ETH price has repeatedly failed to break above a key trendline resistance and now Ethereum risks losing a strong technical support as well.

Ether's (ETH) rally versus Bitcoin (BTC) is not only showing signs of exhaustion, but is also in danger of breaking below a key technical support level. 

ETH slides vs. BTC in second half of January

The ETH/BTC pair declined nearly 9.25% on Jan. 24 from its local top of 0.0779 BTC established on Jan. 11. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin is slightly outpacing Ether in USD terms, rising 38% versus 35%, respectively.

ETH/BTC daily candle price chart. Source: TradingView

Interestingly, Ether's pullback versus Bitcoin has landed its price at the bottom of its EMA ribbon range, as shown below.

ETH/BTC weekly candle price chart. Source: TradingView

The EMA ribbon indicator shows numerous exponential moving averages of increasing timeframe on the same price chart. Dropping below the ribbon range increases an asset's likelihood of seeing an extended down-move.

So in other words, breaking lower would increase its possibility of declining by more than 20% from its current price levels.

Conversely, rising above the ribbon range raises the asset's chances of a broader rally.

Ethereum price capped by key descending trendline

This week, ETH/BTC dropped to the 55-week exponential moving average (the red wave) — a bottom wave — of its EMA Ribbon indicator, as shown below. Buyers took control near the 55-week EMA, prompting Ether to recover a mere 0.35% versus Bitcoin to 0.0708 BTC on Jan. 24.

Related: This $25K BTC price target would spell misery for Bitcoin shorters

But now, the likelihood of retesting the EMA ribbon bottom is high due to a multi-month descending trendline resistance (black trendline in the chart below), where sellers have been more active as of late.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart focusing on descending trendline resistance. Source: TradingView

Therefore, one cannot rule out of the possibility of ETH/BTC breaking below the EMA Ribbon range, similar to how the pair did in May 2022 in the wake of the Terra collapse.

Back then, Ether fell by over 25% versus Bitcoin to 0.0490, a level coinciding with its 200-week EMA (the blue wave). 

Therefore, if a similar breakdown occurs in the coming weeks, the ETH/BTC pair may test the 200-week EMA near 0.0550 BTC as its primary downside target, or roughly a 20% price drop from current levels. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum is ahead of Bitcoin this rally — But ETH price still risks 20% crash against BTC

Ether has entered a bearish range that preceded a 35% price crash in the April–May 2022 session.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), recorded better gains than Bitcoin (BTC) over the past 24 hours despite the latter finally rising above the key $20,000 level.

Ether beats Bitcoin in risk-on rally

On the daily chart, Ether jumped approximately 14% to reach its weekly high of $1,554 (data from Binance) on Oct. 26. Bitcoin underwent a similar rally, but its week-to-date profits are just 6% by comparison. 

The ETH/BTC pair gained around 8%, climbing as high as 0.075 BTC on Oct. 26.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The boom across the top crypto assets has been synchronous with the United States stock market’s winning streak since Oct. 24. It also came on the backdrop of a weaker U.S. dollar index, which has been typically trading inversely to the crypto market since March 2020.

Bear fractal alarm

ETH/BTC’s latest price rally has taken it to a range that preceded a 35% correction in the April–May 2022 session (marked as “R1” in the chart below) and was instrumental in limiting its upside prospects in August–September 2022 (marked as “R3” in the chart below).

ETH/BTC 3-day price chart. Source: TradingView

The range coincides with the area defined by ETH/BTC’s 0.236–0.382 Fib lines, or 0.072 BTC–0.077 BTC. Therefore, the pair may stabilize inside the range, followed by a correction toward the 0.068 BTC–0.064 BTC area, its near-term support levels.

Related: Ethereum’s Merge won’t stop its price from sinking

Meanwhile, a decisive breakdown below the 0.068 BTC–0.064 BTC area could expose Ether to fall toward its multi-month ascending trendline, which served as a solid rebound point after the April–May 2022 downtrend.

That puts ETH/BTC’s primary downside target at around 0.059 BTC in Q4 2022, down 20% from current price levels.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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The floppening? Ethereum price weakens post-Merge, risking 55% drop against Bitcoin

A classic bearish reversal pattern suggests pain ahead for the ETH/BTC pair despite Ethereum's milestone Merge event.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) has been forming an inverse-cup-and-handle pattern since May 2021 on the weekly chart, which hints at a potential decline against Bitcoin (BTC). 

ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring inverse cup-and-handle breakdown setup. Source: TradingView

An inverse cup-and-handle is a bearish reversal pattern, accompanied by lower trading volume. It typically resolves after the price breaks below its support level, followed by a fall toward the level at a length equal to the maximum height between the cup's peak and the support line.

Applying the theoretical definition on ETH/BTC's weekly chart presents 0.03 BTC as its next downside target, down around 55% from Sept. 16's price.

Can ETH/BTC pull a Dow Jones?

Alternatively, the ETH/BTC pair could nevertheless deliver some large gains in the years to come.

On the weekly log chart, the ETH/BTC pair is painting a potential cup-and-handle since January 2018. In other words, a rally toward 0.5 BTC in 2023 is on the table, up more than 520% from current price levels.

Unlike its inverse counterpart mentioned above, cup-and-handles are bullish reversal patterns with their upside targets located at levels equal to their maximum height when measured from their breakout point. 

Veteran analyst Tom Bulkowski notes that these patterns have a 61% success rate of meeting their upside targets.

For instance, the cup-and-handle pattern that formed on the Dow Jones chart during the Great Depression of the 1930s and 1940s — wherein the cup took nine years to develop and the handle another four years — reached its upside target in the 1950s, as shown below.

Dow Jones Industrial Average cup-and-handle pattern. Source: StockCharts.com

Potentially, ETH/BTC could now be in the handle stage of a similar cup-and-handle pattern, as shown via the shaded purple descending channel area in the chart below.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring cup-and-handle breakout setup. Source: TradingView

The pair awaits a breakout move above the pattern's resistance level of 0.08 BTC. For now, it has been fluctuating lower inside the handle range, eyeing a pullback toward its lower trendline at around 0.05 BTC after testing the upper one as resistance this week.

Flippening or floppening?

Ethereum's potential to overtake Bitcoin by market capitalization has been commonly dubbed as "the flippening."

Ethereum is competing with Bitcoin to become the so-called "inflation hedge," according to Joshua Lim, head of derivatives at Genesis Trading. Lim cited Ethereum's EIP-1559 update from August 2021 that introduced a fee-burning mechanism into its protocol. 

Related: Academic research claims ETH is a ‘superior’ store of value to Bitcoin

According to Ultrasound.Money, Ether's supply growth now stands at minus 1.43% per year. In other words, the token could be becoming "disinflationary" with time. Lim argues that it makes Ether an attractive alternative to Bitcoin among institutional investors.

But many argue against the flippening narrative, including Rahul Singh, the co-founder of Defi platform FINtokens. He told Cointelegraph Bitcoin would continue existing as a "digital gold" while Ethereum would become an "Internet 2.0" project.

As of September 2022, Ether's market cap is $175 billion compared to Bitcoin's $372 billion.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Will Ethereum keep rallying versus Bitcoin? ETH price technicals hint at 60% gains ahead

Ether could enter the pattern's breakout stage in the days leading up to the highly-anticipated Merge.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) shows the potential to log major gains versus Bitcoin (BTC) with the ETH/BTC pair nearing yearly highs. 

Ether paints classic bullish reversal pattern

The bullish cues come from a classic technical pattern called the inverse head and shoulders, which develops when the price forms three troughs below a common support level known as neckline. The middle trough, or head, is deeper than the other two, called the shoulders. 

An inverse head and shoulders setup resolves after the price breaks above the neckline while accompanying an increase in trading volume. As a rule of technical analysis, its profit target comes at a length equal to the maximum distance between the head's lowest point and the neckline. 

So far, Ether has painted a similar pattern, and it now awaits breakout above the neckline, as illustrated in the chart below.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring "inverse head and shoulders" breakout setup. Source: TradingView

If ETH's price climbs decisively above the neckline, then the Ethereum token's upside target in 2022 will be around 0.136 BTC, up approximately 60% from current price levels.

Merge enthusiasm boosts ETH/BTC pair

The breakout moment could come ahead of Ethereum's switch from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS).

While the Merge is touted by proponents as a less energy-intensive alternative to PoW, the update could also reduce Ether's annual issuance by 4.2%

Moreover, the demand for ETH as the means to receive any potential forked tokens following the Merge has seen the ETH/BTC pair rise by more than 55% since the Merge's release announcement on July 14. 

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes Ether's switch to a less energy-intensive protocol could boost its appeal among institutional investors. In turn, it could ensure Ether overtakes Bitcoin by market capitalization.

Related: Ether price could ‘decouple’ from other crypto post Merge — Chainalysis

"It's entirely possible that we'll see Ethereum flipping Bitcoin at some point in the future," Hougan told Forbes, adding:

“It is going after, in my view, a larger addressable market."

For now, Ethereum's $200 billion market cap trails Bitcoin's $369 billion.

Sell the Merge news?

On the flip side, Ether has been trading near a resistance area with a long history of exhausting price rallies against Bitcoin, notes analyst Riteable. In addition, the ETH/BTC's ongoing uptrend accompanies declining volumes and relative strength index (RSI) readings.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

In other words, a bearish divergence that could mean ETH/BTC's price rally could be nearing exhaustion, resulting in a correction post-Merge.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum to $2K? ETH price ‘bull flag’ hints at September gains versus Bitcoin, dollar

Ether is forming classic bullish patterns against the greenback and its top crypto rival on shorter-timeframe charts.

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), looks ready to grow stronger compared to the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin (BTC) in the days leading up to its proof-of-stake transition in September.

ETH price chart bullish setup

The bullish outlook emerges from classic technical indicators on ETH/USD and ETH/BTC charts. For instance, ETH/USD has been forming a "falling wedge" pattern with a profit target sitting around 30% above the current prices. 

Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC chart is painting a potential "bull flag" that could increase the price by approximately 10% from current price levels upon resolution.

Here's how these bullish setups could play out.

Ethereum to $2K next?

Falling wedges form when the price trends lower inside a descending, contracting channel.

Falling wedge illustration. Source: New Trader U

They typically resolve after the price breaks above their upper trendlines. Their breakout target is as high as the maximum distance between their upper and lower trendlines when measured from the breakout point

ETH's price has been decreasing since mid-August in a falling wedge pattern. It recently rebounded after testing the structure's lower trendline to hit the upper trendline and now eyes a breakout toward or above $2,000, as shown below.

ETH/USD daily price chart featuring falling wedge breakout setup. Source: TradingView

The wedge's profit target coincides with Ethereum's 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) at $2,055.

Moreover, the target appears to be a junction as ETH eyes an extended bull run toward $2,500. This level is the upside target of a broader ascending channel (the purple range) that has been forming since June.

In other words, ETH's price could grow anywhere by 30%-55% in September.

ETH/BTC bull flag setup

Bull flags surface when the price consolidates lower inside a descending, parallel channel after a strong upward move.

Bull flag illustration. Source: ThinkMarkets

The pattern resolves after the price breaks above its upper trendline, followed by an extended upside move toward the level at length equal to the size of the previous uptrend, also called flagpole. As a result, analysts call bull flags "bullish continuation" patterns.

Ether has been forming a bull flag against Bitcoin since early August, awaiting breakout as it tests the structure's upper trendline for one. Suppose it happens, then the price could rise toward 0.087 BTC, up approximately 10% from today's price.

ETH/BTC daily price chart featuring bull flag breakout setup. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, ETH/BTC could flip lower to retest the flag's lower trendline. This trendline appears to be coinciding with a support confluence consisting of a 50-day EMA (the red wave) and the 0.618 Fib line at 0.0729 BTC.

Related: Ethereum miner balance reaches four-year high weeks before the Merge

The pullback will not invalidate the bull flag breakout setup unless the price breaks below the lower trendline. But if it does, ETH/BTC risks falling toward $0.088 BTC, a level synchronous with the 0.5 Fib line and the 200-day EMA (the blue wave).

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum price rises by 50% against Bitcoin in one month — but there’s a catch

The rise in the ETH/BTC pair is painting a bearish technical pattern, hinting at a potential correction.

Ether (ETH), Ethereum's native toke, has been continuing its uptrend against Bitcoin (BTC) as euphoria around its upcoming network upgrade, "the Merge," grows.

ETH at multi-month highs against BTC

On the daily chart, ETH/BTC surged to an intraday high of 0.075 on Aug. 6, following a 1.5% upside move. Meanwhile, the pair's gains came as a part of a broader rebound trend that started a month ago at 0.049, amounting to approximately 50% gains.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH/BTC recovery in part has surfaced due to the Merge, which will have Ethereum switch from proof-of-work (PoW) mining to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Ethereum's "rising wedge" suggests sell-off

From a technical perspective, Ether stares at potential interim losses as ETH/BTC paints a convincing rising wedge

Rising wedges are bearish reversal patterns that occur when the price trends higher inside a range defined by two rising, converging trendlines. As a rule, they resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline by as much as the structure's maximum height.

ETH/BTC daily price chart featuring "rising wedge'' breakdown setup. Source: TradingView

Moreover, a declining volume and relative strength index (RSI) against a rising ETH/BTC further increases bearish divergence risks. This gives weight to the wedge's bearish setup for a target of 0.064 BTC, or down 11% from today's price.

Ether looks stronger vs. dollar

Meanwhile, technicals paint a brighter picture for Ethereum against the U.S. dollar. The potential of a 10% breakout for ETH/USD looks strong in August due to a classic bullish reversal pattern.

Related: Decentralized finance faces multiple barriers to mainstream adoption

On a four-hour chart, ETH/USD has formed what appears to be a "double bottom." This pattern resembles the letter "W" due to two consecutive lows followed by a change in direction from downtrend to uptrend, as illustrated below.

ETH/USD four-hour price chart featuring "double bottom" breakout setup. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, a double bottom pattern resolves after the price breaks above its common resistance level and—as a rule of technical analysis—rises by as much as the distance between the first bottom and the resistance. 

As a result, ETH could rally toward $1,940 in August, up 10% from today's price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum price ‘cup and handle’ pattern hints at potential breakout versus Bitcoin

Ether has printed a classic bullish reversal pattern against Bitcoin weeks before the Merge launch date.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) has rebounded 40% against Bitcoin (BTC) after bottoming out locally at 0.049 on June 13. Now, the ETH/BTC pair is at two-month highs and can extend its rally in the coming weeks, according to a classic technical pattern.

ETH paints cup and handle pattern

Specifically, ETH/BTC has been forming a "cup and handle" on its lower-timeframe charts since July 18. 

A cup and handle setup typically appears when the price falls and then rebounds in what appears to be a U-shaped recovery, which looks like a "cup." Meanwhile, the recovery leads to a pullback move, wherein the price trends lower inside a descending channel called the "handle."

The pattern resolves after the price rallies to an approximately equal size to the prior decline. The ETH/BTC chart below illustrates a similar bullish technical setup.

ETH/BTC four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Notably, the pair now trades lower inside the handle range but could pursue a recovery toward the neckline resistance near 0.071 BTC. Afterward, a decisive cup and handle breakout above the neckline level could lead ETH/BTC to 0.072, up 12.75% from today's price.

The success rate of the cup and handle pattern in reaching its profit target is 61%, according to veteran investor Tom Bulkowski. 

The Merge factor

The bullish setup for ETH/BTC also takes cues from Ethereum's network transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) potentially via "the Merge" slated for mid September.

Related: Will Ethereum Merge hopium continue, or is it a bull trap?

Meanwhile, market analyst Michaël van de Poppe says that Ether could see more upside versus Bitcoin due to the Merge hype as momentum builds in the coming weeks. 

Van de Poppe anticipates ETH/BTC to test 0.072, the cup-and-handle profit target, as interim resistance while holding either 0.0645 or 0.057 level as support.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Michaël van de Poppe

Conversely, the range of risks for Ethereum with the Merge update are technical issues, delays or even a contentious hard fork. For instance, a bug had split the Ethereum chain during a 2020 network upgrade.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum price breaks out, hits 2-month high versus Bitcoin — is the rally sustainable?

The rally has pushed ETH price toward strong resistance levels, increasing its pullback risks against Bitcoin.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) has successfully avoided a bearish technical setup to reach a two-month high against Bitcoin (BTC).

ETH price bear flag invalidated

The ETH/BTC pair invalidated its prevailing "bear flag" pattern after Ethereum developers announced this July 14 that their long-awaited switch to proof-of-stake (called the Merge) will most likely occur in September.

ETH/BTC has rallied by more than 22% since the announcement, reaching 0.067, its highest level since May 25. Furthermore, the pair's sharp upside move has pushed its net retracement gains to 37% when measured from June 13's local bottom of 0.049.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Ether tests key inflection zone

Strong fundamentals led by the Merge launch could have ETH/BTC pursue a run-up toward the 0.072-0.076 area. This range was instrumental as resistance in January and March-May. Therefore, it should serve as the next upside target for Ether bulls.

But there's a catch. Notably, ETH/BTC has been showing signs of a weakening upside momentum near what appears to be a strong resistance confluence. 

That includes a falling trendline resistance, a Fibonacci retracement line (near 0.066 BTC), and a support-turned-resistance area (the 0.064-0.068 BTC range), as shown below.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

In addition, ETH/BTC's daily relative strength index, a momentum oscillator indicator, has crossed into so-called "overbought" territory, suggesting elevated risks of a sell-off. 

Related: ETH traders gauge fakeout risks after 40% ETH price rally

Independent market analyst "Altcoin Sherpa" cited a similar technical setup this July 18, noting that the ongoing ETH/BTC rally could be "unsustainable."

In other words, ETH/BTC could see a reversal toward 0.06 by September if the inflection resistance zone holds for a 9.5% decline. The 0.06 BTC level also coincides with the 0.236 Fib line, as shown in the chart above.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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