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Ethereum losing streak vs. Bitcoin hits 15 months — Can ETH price reverse course?

Bitcoin ETF and halving buzz have boosted BTC's demand compared to Ethereum in recent weeks.

The price of Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), is trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin (BTC), and the lowest since Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Will it continue to weaken for the remainder of 2023? Let's take a closer look at the charts. 

Ethereum price breaks below critical support vs. Bitcoin

The ETH/BTC pair dropped to as low as 0.056 BTC earlier this week. In doing so, the pair broke below its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near 0.058 BTC, raising downside risks further into 2023.

The 200-week EMA has historically served as a reliable support level for ETH/BTC bulls. For instance, the pair rebounded 75% three months after testing the wave support in July 2022. Conversely, it dropped over 25% after losing the same support in October 2020.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC stares at similar selloff risks in 2023 after losing its 200-week EMA as support. In this case, the next downside target looks to be around its 0.5 Fib line near 0.051 BTC in 2023, down about 9.5% from current price levels.

Conversely, ETH price may rebound toward its 50-week EMA (the red wave) near 0.065 BTC if it reclaims the 200-week EMA as support.

Bitcoin bull case overshadows Ethereum

Ethereum's persistent weakness versus Bitcoin is reflected in institutional capital flow data. 

For instance, as of Oct. 6, Bitcoin-specific investment funds had attracted $246 million year-to-date (YTD), according to CoinShares. On the other hand, Ethereum funds have lost capital, witnessing outflows worth $104 million in the same period.

Net flows into crypto funds (by asset). Source: CoinShares

The discrepancy is likely due to growing buzz about a potential spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETF) approval in the U.S.

Trade pundits argue that a spot Bitcoin ETF launch will attract $600 billion. In addition, Bitcoin's fourth halving on April 24, 2024, is also acting as a tailwind versus the altcoin market.

Related: Bitcoin price gets new $25K target as SEC decision day boosts GBTC

The halving will reduce the Bitcoin miners' block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, a bullish case based on historical precedent that cuts new supply in half. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum acts as a ‘hedge’ in Bitcoin price crash as ETH/BTC hits 3-year high

The second-largest cryptocurrency posts dwarfed losses compared to Bitcoin's 21% price decline Saturday.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) plunged alongside other cryptocurrencies on Dec. 4. Still, its move downside did not deter it from hitting a three-year high against Bitcoin (BTC), the world's leading crypto by market capitalization.

The ETH/BTC exchange rate jumped a little over 11.50% to hit 0.0835 BTC for the first time since May 2018. The pair's price rally appeared in contrast to Ether's 15% price drop against the U.S. dollar on Saturday, which appeared in the wake of a market-wide selloff that saw Bitcoin plunging by as much as 21% intraday.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH vs. BTC "hedge" narrative emerges

While Ether's losses were substantial, they were relatively milder compared to Bitcoin in USD terms as the ETH/BTC pair surged to a three-year high. At the same time, some analysts believed that investors started treating the second-largest cryptocurrency as a haven against Bitcoin during the Saturday crash.

"It seems that investors are taking ETH as a hedge here," said Crypto Birb, an independent market analyst in a tweet Saturday, pointing to a four-hour ETH/BTC price chart (as shown below) that showed the pair retracing sharply after testing its 200-period moving average (the orange wave) as support.

ETH/BTC four-hour price chart featuring 200-period MA support. Source: TradingView

Lukas Enzersdorfer-Konrad, chief product officer at Bitpanda, noted that ETH/BTC's November close was the best one in the last 45 months, meaning bulls still had "some power left for an additional run."

"Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin by a large margin this year [...] It increased its market dominance to 22%. The number of active addresses on the network continues to climb while the net issuance of ETH continues to fall which might be the main reason for its rapid rise."

Technical outlook

As Cointelegraph covered earlier, Ether has shown the prospects of continuing its upward trend due to a technical support pattern, dubbed Ascending Triangle.

Related: Ethereum ‘about to go parabolic’ against Bitcoin as analysts weigh BTC bear case

On Saturday, the ETH/BTC pair broke out of the Ascending Triangle range to the upside, accompanied by a slight increase in its trading volumes. In a "perfect" world, the pair's move upside should stretch until it hits levels at length equal to the maximum distance between the Triangle's upper and lower trendlines when measured from the breakout point.

In a "perfect" world, the pair's move upside should stretch until it hits levels at length equal to the maximum distance between the Triangle's upper and lower trendlines when measured from the breakout point.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring Ascending Channel pattern. Source: TradingView

As shown in the chart above, the Triangle's upside target, from the breakout point near 0.077 BTC, puts the profit target near 0.1 BTC.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Crypto Trader Says One Large-Cap Memecoin Is ‘About To Rip,’ Updates Outlook on Bitcoin and Solana

Increased utility in DeFi, NFTs back Ethereum’s 3-year high in its ETH/BTC pair

Ethereum price hit a new all-time high in its ETH/BTC pair and a classic technical analysis pattern suggests the altcoin has a lot more upside.

This week, Ether (ETH) price reached a new 2021 high against Bitcoin (BTC), bringing its year-to-date returns slightly above 350% and according to technical analysis, the rally could extend even further.

On Dec. 1, bids for the ETH/BTC pair hit 0.0835 BTC on Coinbase for the first time this year. The upside move came as a part of an uptrend that started mid-October after Ether bottomed out against Bitcoin at 0.0630 BTC to carve out almost 41% price retracement.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Growing adoption propels Ether's boom

The ETH/BTC price rally reflect deep interest in Ethereum, which is currently the world's leading smart contract platform by users and market capitalization. This is slightly different than the scenario for Bitcoin, which typically functions as a speculative hedge against inflation across global economies.

As of late, Ethereum has been become a core asset within crypto growth sectors like nonfungible tokens (NFT), decentralized finance (DeFi) and the Metaverse. The firms operating in this space require Ether to run their smart contracts, which in turn, has increased demand for the altcoin and supported a steady uptrend in its price.

Total valued locked inside ETH-based DeFi platforms (including staking). Source: Defi Llama

Demand for Eth is expected to remain robust in the coming year and this simple fact has many analysts projecting prices within the $6,000 to $10,000 range. 

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Matt Maley, the chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., anticipated additional gains for Ether should it break above its mid-November high around $4,900. According to Maley, Bitcoin bulls remain under pressure near the cryptocurrency's mid-November and mid-April highs of $69,000 to $65,000.

If Ether manages to hit and hold a new all-time high while BTC trades in a downtrend, Maley said:

"It will show that Ether has become the new crypto of choice for most investors."

The technical outlook for Ether against Bitcoin has also been suggesting stronger bull runs for the former in the future.

Related: Ethereum approaches a new ATH, but derivatives data reflects mixed emotions

A prolonged bullish breakout could be in play

The latest bout of buying has had ETH/BTC break above a multi-month resistance trendline that constitutes an ascending triangle pattern and now the pair eyes an extended bull run towards 0.1 BTC, as shown in the chart below.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring Ascending Triangle setup. Source: TradingView

Typically, ascending triangles are continuation patterns, meaning, they tend to send the price in the direction of its previous trend by as much as the maximum height between the upper and lower trendline when measured from the breakout point.

ETH/BTC's breakout point comes out to be near 0.077 BTC while its triangle's maximum height is 0.022 BTC. In a "perfect" world, this would place the ETH/BTC pair on path to 0.1 BTC, but given the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency sector, anything is possible. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum price poised for 40% rally vs. Bitcoin after breaking out of four-month range

The Ethereum blockchain native asset broke its downward sloping resistance trendline to the upside, triggering a textbook bullish outlook.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) faces the prospect of logging a 40% price rally against its top rival Bitcoin (BTC), per a classic technical pattern.

Dubbed Symmetrical Triangle, the structure develops after the price forms a series of higher lows and lower highs. Doing so results in a convergence of two trendlines with a degree of symmetry, which appears like a Triangle.

Analysts treat Symmetrical Triangles as trend continuation indicators, i.e., they usually send prices in the direction of their previous trend following a clear breakout. As a result, the ongoing ETH/BTC price boom expects to undergo an upside continuation after having fluctuating inside a similar Triangle structure for the last four months.

ETH/BTC weekly chart featuring a Symmetrical Triangle setup. Source: TradingView.com

Part of the reason is Ether's attempt to break above its Triangle consolidation setup, after rising seven weeks in a row by 179%. If it does, the ETH/BTC exchange rate could rise by as much as the Triangle's maximum height (~0.025 BTC) from the point of its breakout (~0.069 BTC).

That puts the pair's profit target near 0.094 BTC, about 40% above 0.069 BTC.

Ether's outperformance 

Ether's bullish outlook against Bitcoin emerges as it outperforms the benchmark cryptocurrency in dollar terms on an intraday basis.

On Tuesday, the ETH/USD exchange rate rose 6.61% to $3,442, its highest level in three months. Comparatively, Bitcoin posted dwarfed gains, rising only 2.5% to $48,169, portraying a higher interim demand for Ether tokens among traders.

ETH/USD versus BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView.com

Dmitry Mishunin, founder and CEO of smart contract audit firm HashEX, projected Ethereum and similar "smart contract-enabling blockchains" to keep outperforming Bitcoin in the long run, citing their superior utility.

"The duo of Cardano and Ethereum has the propensity to harbor countless innovative projects," Mishunin said, adding that Ethereum has the potential to flip Bitcoin in the long run.

"Bitcoin only relies on its capped supply and the first-mover advantage, a trend many investors are beginning to substitute for unique technology that can drive a blockchain-dominated future."

Jon Ovadia, founder, and CEO of crypto exchange Ovex, also said that Ethereum has better fundamentals than Bitcoin at this moment, largely due to its recent network update that aimed to add deflationary pressure to Ether through a fee-burning mechanism.

Thus far, about 146,878.7 ETH (worth approximately $492.3 million) have been burnt from the total circulating supply," Ovadia said, adding that:

"The potential for a more superior Proof-of-Stake infrastructure through the highly anticipated launch of Ethereum 2.0 will also make the blockchain more usable, thus driving the coin’s utility and its price growth."

Bitcoin outlook, meanwhile

So far into 2021, Ether has grossly outperformed Bitcoin due to its incremental adoption in the booming decentralized finance and nonfungible token industries. As it stands on Tuesday, the year-to-date profits for Ether are 373% versus Bitcoin's 63.55%.

Related: Bitcoin rejects $51K after Michael Saylor reveals new BTC purchase — What’s next?

Nevertheless, Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said Bitcoin would eventually catch up to Ethereum's gains, thus leading to $100,000 by the end of 2021, more than double where it is trading at the time of writing.

Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee also envisioned a six-figure bid for Bitcoin as long as it stays above its average price over the last 200 days — a long-term momentum measure.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Crypto Trader Says One Large-Cap Memecoin Is ‘About To Rip,’ Updates Outlook on Bitcoin and Solana