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What is JOMO in crypto trading?

JOMO is that "I-was-right-about-the-market" joyful feeling after narrowly escaping a bad trade and potentially catastrophic losses.

JOMO stands for the joy of missing out — particularly when a cryptocurrency trader refuses to follow the crowd. This is the opposite of FOMO, or fear of missing out, and it's the counterbalance to price rallies driven by hype and frenzy.

What is JOMO in crypto trading?

In crypto trading, JOMO stems from not following the herd, which is often wrong, and ultimately avoiding a potentially big loss.

For example, the recurring bullish calls in the Bitcoin market during the 2020-2021 bull run likely prompted many people to buy at the top in expectation of more upside. 

Many market commentators, including analysts at Standard Chartered and JPMorgan & Chase, predicted in 2021 that BTC price would reach $100,000 by the end of the year. The widely-tracked Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model further boosted the bullish argument, given its accuracy through most of Bitcoin's bull and bear cycles.

However, Bitcoin price fell short of its popular $100,000 target after peaking out in November 2021 at $69,000, and is currently down 60% since.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Thus, the JOMO traders who either sold or didn't buy into the rally at the time came out on top. Moreover, they also retained the capital to get in at lower levels when FOMO is nonexistent, such as in June 2022 that marked Bitcoin's latest price bottom. 

JOMO after Bitcoin price peak

One of the few JOMO traders who didn't buy into the overly-optimistic Bitcoin predictions in late 2021 was market watcher Michael Gogol. He reduced his crypto exposure a month before Bitcoin's peak, expressing his relief in May 2022.

On the other hand, one trader confessed that he had bought Bitcoin at $60,000 in October 2021 after getting convinced by the market's anti-inflation narrative. He said:

"The whole inflation thing finally clicked. I panicked and entered almost at ATH of 69k. Feels bad. Went down the rabbit hole, hours of research."

Turning FOMO into JOMO

FOMO originates from the objective of making money quickly. Many gullible traders believe they can double or triple their investments within the matter of days, weeks, or months by investing cryptocurrencies. 

Usually, traders with FOMO syndrome may open or close their trades multiple times a day without putting considerable thought or strategy behind them. These high-risk trades also impact traders mentally, even leading to stress and sleep deprivation.

Here are four steps that a trader can take to turn FOMO into JOMO:

  1. Develop a trading plan.
  2. Keep a trading journal to monitor your trading patterns. 
  3. Analyze potential trades using multiple metrics, including fundamental and technical analysis.
  4. Ignore emotions, follow your plan and adjust accordingly. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Norway’s CBDC Timeline Clouded by Expert Committee’s Bold Advice

3 reasons why the FTX fiasco is bullish for Bitcoin

The FTX fiasco is nothing new for Bitcoin as it survived multiple exchange collapses, bear markets and even outright bans in its decade-plus existence.

The "Bitcoin-is-dead" gang is back and at it again. The fall of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange has resurrected these infamous critics that are once again blaming a robbery on the money that was stolen, and not the robber.

"We need regulation! Why did the government allow this to happen?" they scream.  

For instance, Chetan Bhagat, a renowned author from India, wrote a detailed "crypto" obituary, comparing the cryptocurrency sector to communism that promised decentralization but ended up with authoritarianism.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, his column conveniently used a melting Bitcoin (BTC) logo as its featured image.

Bhagat should have picked a more accurate image for his op-ed (melting FTX (FTT) Token?), particularly after looking at Bitcoin's decade-plus history that has seen it surviving even nationwide bans. This includes 465 466 obituaries since its debut in 2009 when it traded for a few cents.

Bitcoin performance since debut. Source: TradingView

The FTX/Alameda's collapse is similar to previous bearish trigger events like Mt. Gox in 2014. Therefore, this failure of centralization will once again underline what makes Bitcoin special, and why FTX is the opposite of Bitcoin and decentralization. 

Moreover, the incident should also boost growth and development of in, non-custodial exchanges for Bitcoin that will help reduce dependency on trust. 

FTX may have had zero Bitcoin in custody

Traders responded to FTX's shocking collapse by pulling their BTC from custodial exchanges. Notably, the total amount of Bitcoin held by all exchanges dropped to 2.07 million BTC on Nov. 17 from 2.29 million BTC at the beginning of the month.

United States-based exchanges saw the biggest outflows, in particular, with users withdrawing over $1.5 billion in BTC in the past week alone. 

Bitcoin reserves across all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

On Nov. 9, FTX halted withdrawals of all cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, raising suspicions that the exchange did not have adequate reserves to meet the demand.

That was further evident in a leaked FTX balance sheet that showed the exchange having zero Bitcoin against its $1.4 billion liabilities in BTC. In other words, FTX enabled fractional-reserve Bitcoin trading. 

"This is, on the one hand, bad for you as you will only find out if they have been swimming naked once the exchange implodes, accompanied by you losing all your funds," Jan Wüstenfeld, writes independent market analyst. He adds:

"On the other hand, this artificially increases the bitcoin supply in the short-run, suppressing the price and preventing actual price discovery [...] Yes, I know these are not real bitcoin, but as long as the exchanges issuing fake paper, Bitcoin remains operational, the effect is there."

Thus, FTX's little-to-negligible exposure to Bitcoin potentially reduces Its likelihood of selling any remaining funds to raise liquidity. 

The incident is also likely to produce a new cohort of Bitcoin hodlers by forcing people to not keep their funds on risky exchanges and practice self-custody. While a decreasing amount of BTC on exchanges means fewer coins available to sell.

Sam Bankman-Fried was anti-Bitcoin

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) was the Democrats' second biggest donor after George Soros for the midterm elections, giving nearly $45 million to lobby for crypto regulations that would allegedly benefit his firm.

Related: US crypto exchanges lead Bitcoin exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC withdrawn in one week

But speculations are large that SBF attempted to tarnish Bitcoin's growth through the U.S. lawmakers,  as well as news articles, where he downplayed Bitcoin as an efficient payment system.

Other commentators have also pointed out a connection between SBF and anti-crypto U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, noting the former's father, Joseph Bankman, helped the politician draft tax legislation in 2016. 

SBF's influence among U.S. lawmakers is now gone with him facing potential criminal charges for illegally using customer funds for FTX trades. 

Press "F" to flush 

Past cryptocurrency market downturns have roots in the failure of centralized players as well as "altcoins" that ultimately ended up being a money-grab. 

FTX's token FTT is just the latest example. Other failed projects that triggered a market downturn just this year include the Defi lending platform Celsius Network (CEL) and Terra (LUNA). 

Created and operated by centralized entities, the supply of these tokens, and therefore price, becomes vulnerable to manipulation: undisclosed pre-mine allocations, insider VC deals, small float vs. total supply, you name it.

It is exposure to such (crap) tokens, particularly in the form of collateral, that ultimately drove crypto hedge funds Three Arrow Capital, FTX's sister firm Alameda Research, and many others to the ground.

"In our view, the bubble in crypto that popped this year was in the atmosphere of tokens being created just for speculative purposes," noted BOOX Research, adding:

"While we can debate which cryptos are 'bad money driving out the good', FTT and LUNA are just two examples everyone can agree should not have existed."

Therefore, a market flush of altcoins that should not have ever existed, FTT included, may further strengthen investors' trust in Bitcoin. Early data is showing the same, with CoinShares reporting an inflow uptick into Bitcoin-based investment funds. 

Notably, Bitcoin-based investment vehicles attracted $18.8 million to their coffers in the week ending Nov. 11, bringing its year-to-date inflows to $316.50 million.

Flow by asset. Source: Bloomberg/CoinShares

"The inflows began later in the week on the back of extreme price weakness prompted by the FTX/Alameda collapse," noted James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, adding:

"It suggests that investors see this price weakness as an opportunity, differentiating between 'trusted' third parties and an inherently trustless system."

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is not witnessing a collapse in demand in the current bear market compared to 2018, on-chain data reveals.

The number of non-zero Bitcoin addresses has continued to climb despite the price downtrend, hitting a record high of 43.14 million as of Nov. 16.

Bitcoin addresses count with a non-zero BTC balance. Source: Glassnode

In comparison, the 2018 bear market saw a substantial drop in the number of non-zero Bitcoin addresses, suggesting traders have become relatively more confident about a price recovery, especially as the FTX domino effect clears out the dead wood.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Norway’s CBDC Timeline Clouded by Expert Committee’s Bold Advice

Tron’s stablecoin USDD loses dollar peg on suspected selloff by Alameda Research

Wallets associated with Sam Bankman-Fried's Alameda Research could be behind the dollar de-peg, alleges Tron's founder.

In April 2022, the Tron network launched USDD, a token pegged to the U.S. dollar, as an "over-collateralized stablecoin," meaning its likelihood of slipping below $1 should be lower due to excessive reserves backing its valuation.

USDD stablecoin slips below $1 peg

But it was not enough to keep USDD's price anchored to $1 on Nov. 8 when some whales dumped over 11 million USDD tokens to seek exposure in rival stablecoins Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC). A day later, USDD's price fell to as low as $0.96, followed by a modest recovery to $0.98 on Nov. 10. 

USDD price performance on a 24-hour adjusted timeframe. Source: Messari 

The selling pressure was visible more broadly in the USDD liquidity pool on Curve's decentralized finance protocol. As of Nov. 10, the pool was heavily imbalanced, holding nearly 82.50% in USDD and the rest in USDT, USDC, and DAI stablecoins. 

Tron founder Justin Sun speculates that Alameda Research, a crypto hedge fund headed by FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried, could be the whale dumping its USDD holdings to avoid insolvency. Alameda's balance sheet reportedly was 50% FTT (FTT), FTX's native token that has recently fallen more than 90%.

Miscalculated collateral reserves

USDD is issued by Tron DAO Reserve (TDR), which also serves as the custodian of its collateral. TDR is primarily responsible for selling the collateral to maintain USDD's peg in the event of a sell-side shock.

In theory, USDD appears sufficiently backed by a $2-billion pool of crypto collateral in the form of Bitcoin (BTC), Tron (TRX), and USDC, with the reserves reportedly outweighing the stablecoin supply by over 283%.

USDD supply versus collateral. Source: USDD.io

But there's a catch.

Currently, almost all the stablecoin collateral worth in TDR's reserve wallets are staked and earning yields in JustLend, the largest lending protocol in the Tron ecosystem by total-value-locked (TVL). Meanwhile, 99% of TRX collateral is locked inside a "staking governance" contract.

TDR also appears to be incorrectly including burnt TRX worth over $725 million as collateral. Overall, that leaves the DAO with about $600 million worth of USDC and $236 million worth of BTC in its liquefiable reserves.

In other words, an almost 113% collateral ratio versus the 283% boasted.

Bitcoin, TRX prices slide

USDD's collateral ratio could fluctuate further as its reserve assets, BTC and TRX, undergo price declines.

Notably, BTC's price has plunged by more than 22% week-to-date to around $16,500 in a crypto market meltdown led by the Alameda-FTX fiasco. On the other hand, TRX wiped approximately 12% off its valuation in the same period, trading at around $0.05 on Nov. 10.

TRX/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The Tron token now eyes a break below its support long-standing support confluence, comprising its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near $0.052 and its 0.236 Fib line near $0.055.

This may push TRX on an extended decline toward the $0.022-$0.030 range (marked in red in the chart above). This area was instrumental as a consolidation channel in August 2020-January 2021 and January 2019-July 2021.

Furthermore, it served as support between February and November 2018.

Related: Buying Bitcoin ‘will quickly vanish’ when CBDCs launch — Arthur Hayes

At the same time, Bitcoin has entered the breakdown phase of its prevailing inverse-cup-and-handle pattern, now eyeing $14,000 as its primary downside target.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Norway’s CBDC Timeline Clouded by Expert Committee’s Bold Advice

FTX Token price risks 30% plunge as a 23M FTT ‘part’ moves to Binance

Alameda Research reportedly obtained $2.2 billion worth of loans using FTT as collateral, a token created by cryptocurrency exchange FTX.

An ongoing selloff in the FTX Token (FTT) market could worsen in the coming months owing to a mix of pessimistic technical and fundamental indicators.

FTT could plunge 30%

From a technical perspective, FTT has formed an inverse-cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart, identifiable by its crescent-shaped price trend followed by a less extreme upward retracement.

On Nov. 6, FTT broke below the pattern's support line near $22.50, accompanied by a volume spike. The FTX exchange token's selloff continued on Nov. 7 below the support line, raising risks of a bearish continuation phase in the coming months.

FTT/USD daily price chart featuring inverse-cup-and-handle pattern. Source: TradingView

As a rule of technical analysis, the inverse-cup-and-handle breakdown can push the price down by the length equal to the distance between the pattern's support and peak level. That puts FTT's breakdown price target at around $16, down roughly 30% from the current price.

The bearish technical setup came as Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the CEO of crypto exchange Binance, said his company would liquidate its entire FTT holdings in the coming months, on fears that the token might collapse in the same manner as Terra (LUNA) in May 2021.

Binance was an early investor in FTX.

Raising selloff risks, the announcement followed a large transfer of roughly 23 million FTT tokens worth $530 million to Binance, which CZ confirmed was a "part" earmarked for liquidation. 

This also coincided with a spike in individual transactions worth more than $100,000.

Number of FTT transactions worth $100,000 or more. Source: Santiment

Alameda Research faces insolvency allegations

Binance's decision took cues from allegations that Alameda Research,a crypto-focused hedge fund founded by FTX exchange's Sam Bankman-Fried, could turn insolvent from its exposure to illiquid altcoins, including FTT.

Notably, Alameda Research had $14.6 billion on its balance sheet as of June 30, with FTT being the largest holding at $5.8 billion, making up 88% of its net equity. In addition, the firm held $1.2 billion in Solana (SOL), $3.37 billion in unidentified cryptocurrency, $2 billion in "equity securities," and other assets.

On the other hand, Alameda Research reportedly had liabilities worth $8 billion, including $2.2 billion worth of loans collateralized by FTT. That, coupled with the firm's alleged exposure to illiquid altcoins, prompted some analysts to predict its insolvency in the future. 

"Alameda will never be able to cash in a significant portion of FTT to pay back its debts," wrote Mike Burgersburg, an independent market analyst, for the Dirty Bubble Media Substack, noting:

"There are few buyers, and the largest buyer appears to be the very company which Alameda is most closely tied to [...] the fair market value of their FTT in the event of large sales would rapidly approach $0."

Interestingly, on-chain data trackers detected wallets associated with Alameda Research sending nearly $66 million worth of stablecoin tokens to FTX addresses on Nov. 6, potentially to absorb the token's sell-side pressure.

93% of FTT tokens in circulation are owned by 10 addresses. Source: Etherscan

Damage control

Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison countered these allegations, noting that the firm had more than $10 billion worth of assets and had returned most of its loans due to the tightening in the crypto credit space in 2022.

Bankman-Fried called the rumors "unfounded," assuring followers that FTX keeps audited financials.

Related: FTX in talks with investors to raise $1B for further acquisitions

However, FTX traders appear to be taking the cautious route, reflected by a 95% drop in the exchange's stablecoin reserves in the last two weeks. As of Nov. 7, FTX held $26.141 million worth of dollar-pegged tokens, its lowest in a year.

All stablecoin reserves on the FTX exchange. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, investors have been selling their FTT holdings at a loss amid the ongoing Alameda Research fiasco, per EtherScan data. For instance, a small whale reportedly took a 65% loss on its FTT investment

Still, independent market analyst Satoshi Flipper sees a potential FTT price rebound ahead as it retests a long-standing support range visible on the weekly chart below.

FTT/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Satoshi Flipper

"Too much FUD so I'm long here @ $22.95," the analyst wrote.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Norway’s CBDC Timeline Clouded by Expert Committee’s Bold Advice

FTX Token hits new record up 50% so far in September — What’s driving FTT price higher?

The latest FTT price boom came in the wake of similar upside moves across exchange assets.

FTX crypto exchange’s native utility token, FTT, reached a new record high on Monday a week after it agreed to acquire LedgerX, a United States-based crypto derivative platform, for an undisclosed sum.

On Monday, the FTT/USD exchange rate surged 16.37% to $73.99 in a market-wide rally that saw other top coins post similar but dwarfed price rallies. Additionally, the pair’s intraday climb coincided with gains among top exchange tokens, with Binance Coin (BNB) rising 2.3% and Uniswap’s UNI recording 3.5% profits on a 24-hour adjusted timeframe. 

24-hour performance of the top 10 crypto exchange tokens. Source: Messari

LedgerX acquisition

The news of FTX’s Ledger acquisition served as the primary bullish backdrop behind FTT’s rally.

On Aug. 31, the crypto exchange revealed that it wants to offer a wide array of crypto-based asset classes in the U.S. via its regional wing, FTX.US. As a result, its acquisition of LedgerX, a U.S.-regulated crypto derivatives exchange and clearinghouse for retail and institutional investors, would mean broader market exposure for FTX services.

FTT jumped 34.42% in response to the LedgerX news on Wednesday. Later, the cryptocurrency entered a consolidation phase, only to resume its uptrend on Monday, rising up to 16.37%. In total, its month-to-date gains came out to be a little over 50%.

FTT/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

FTX Bitcoin OI already near previous record high

In detail, FTT provides its holders an opportunity to earn trading fee discounts and over-the-counter rebates on the FTX exchange. Token holders can also use FTT as collateral for futures positions. Meanwhile, institutions that want to buy a white-label version of FTX’s OTC portal and futures exchange can do so by using FTT.

Therefore, FTX’s network growth tends to directly correlate with FTT’s price performance. The relationship was visible in the recent rally, as the Bitcoin Futures Open Interest on the FTX exchange recovered to $2.96 billion on Monday. At its highest, the OI was $3.02 billion on April 13, 2021.

FTX BTC Futures Open Interest. Source: Bybt

Additionally, FTX’s Bitcoin OI recovered toward its all-time highs faster than any other crypto derivatives exchange. For instance, Binance’s Bitcoin OI reached $4.83 billion, with its best level at $5.27 billion, per data provided by Bybt.

Technical outlook

FTT’s latest bull run has pushed it into a price discovery mode.

FTT/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The FTT/USD rate underwent a 6% correction after topping out at $73.99 on Monday, signaling profit-taking among daytraders.

Related: Expanding ecosystem and LedgerX acquisition send FTX Token (FTT) to a new ATH

Now, the pair looks at maintaining support near $61.03 to retest its current all-time high for a bullish breakout. Should that happen, the next resistance target will appear at roughly $85, as per the Fibonacci retracement setup in the chart above.

Meanwhile, a continued sell-off would risk pushing FTT/USD to around $52.48, a level also near the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; the green wave).

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Norway’s CBDC Timeline Clouded by Expert Committee’s Bold Advice