Fundstrat

Even if the filings for Bitcoin spot ETFs are rejected, Lee predicts Bitcoin’s halving event will still push up BTC's price — but not to six figures.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) will surge past an eye-watering $150,000 by the end of 2024, as long as the current slew of United States spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are approved, according to investment research boutique Fundstrat.

In an Aug. 16 interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Fundstrat’s managing partner and head of research Tom Lee predicted that a bundle of successful Bitcoin spot ETF applications will shift Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics towards considerable price appreciation.

When asked what the price of Bitcoin could be by the end of next year, Lee didn’t hold back:

“If the spot Bitcoin (ETF) gets approved, I think the demand will be greater than the daily supply of Bitcoin, so the clearing price [...] is over $150,000, it could even be like $180,000.”

Lee clarified that this could be the case so long as it is a United States-approved spot Bitcoin ETF, as there are already spot Bitcoin ETFs in Europe. 

“If the Spot #Bitcoin ETF gets approved … the clearing price of $BTC is above $150,000.” – Tom Lee @fundstrat pic.twitter.com/ILQZqdjsZA

— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) August 16, 2023

The United States currently makes up 97.7% of the global trading volume for crypto-related ETFs, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Once spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved, this could go to 99.5%, he said. 

However, even if the spot ETF applications are rejected, Lee still predicts a considerable price push to come from Bitcoin’s next halving event, expected to take place in April 2024.

“You will have a drop in supply again, so the clearing price has to increase. But it won’t be six figures.”

In June, Wall Street heavyweights Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree and Valkyrie followed the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock in applying for a Bitcoin spot ETF with the SEC.

However, some of these firms may not learn their fate until sometime in 2024 as the SEC has up to 240 days to make a final decision on an application after commencing the review process.

The outcome of Grayscale’s appeal to convert its GBTC trust product into a Bitcoin spot ETF is however expected to come sooner rather than later.

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart recently estimated that there’s a 65% chance of these Bitcoin spot ETFs being approved by the securities regulator — a significant increase from before BlackRock’s application.

Related: $160K at next halving? Model counts down to new Bitcoin all-time high

Other have tipped that a $100,000 Bitcoin price could come much sooner than expected, with Blockstream CEO Adam Back recently wagering that Bitcoin will notch the new price milestone the month before the halving event.

However, not everyone is inclined to agree. Jesse Myer, the co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, explained on Aug. 15 that the market would only price in the changed reality 12-18 months post-halving.

“Bitcoin won’t surge to $100k before the next halving,” he said.

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