
Investors balance risk as Bitcoin futures dip, reflecting uncertainty before the Federal Reserve's September meeting.
Although Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 21% since it retested the sub-$50,000 level on Aug. 5, its price has struggled to maintain above $62,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has fully recovered and is now trading just 1% below its all-time high set on July 16.
Bitcoin faces several conflicting trends, including derivatives metrics reflecting low buyer interest and macroeconomic indicators suggesting that traders are increasingly shifting away from cash positions. Interestingly, these stock market gains have coincided with a notable decline in US Treasury yields, which signals robust demand for these traditionally safe instruments.
In essence, traders are now willing to accept lower returns on fixed-income assets, likely reflecting a growing confidence in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) strategy to curb inflation without sparking a recession. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates on Sept. 18 after maintaining rates above 4% since December 2022.
Fear of a global economic recession continues to drive investors away from risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced a 5% gain between Aug. 13 and Aug. 14, reaching $61,791, before quickly reversing the entire move, falling to $58,914 in under two hours. This abrupt downturn occurred after the United States reported an inflation figure that slightly undercut analysts' expectations. The initial price surge was driven by significant announcements concerning spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) holdings, but macroeconomic conditions ultimately proved decisive on Aug. 14.
Goldman Sachs, a leading global financial institution, disclosed new spot Bitcoin ETF holdings totaling $418 million in its 13-F filing, reflecting positions as of June 30. The allocation spanned multiple providers, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, and Grayscale. While it remains unclear whether these investments were made by external fund managers or Goldman’s internal asset management team, this marks a significant milestone, as the firm oversees $2.81 trillion in assets under management.
Not all asset managers have embraced such investments. According to CNBC, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo continue to restrict their financial advisors from recommending spot Bitcoin ETFs. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley, one of the world’s largest wealth management firms, only approved the distribution and sale of spot Bitcoin ETFs through its 15,000 financial advisors as recently as Aug. 7. Consequently, Goldman’s allocation could potentially set a precedent that encourages its competitors to follow suit.
Arbitrage trading of the spot BTC ETFs and a drop in demand for inflation hedges could be limiting Bitcoin’s price upside.
Since July 5, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen net inflows of $1.91 billion in its US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Despite this, its price has struggled to stay above $65,000.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index reached an all-time high on July 16, and gold, considered the world's largest reserve asset, traded at a historical high on July 17. This indicates that the factors hindering Bitcoin's performance are not tied to the traditional finance markets. But what exactly is causing this underperformance?
To begin with, buyers of spot ETFs might have shifted away from spot positions, possibly for tax reasons or to use those shares as collateral for traditional finance trades. Additionally, major holders of these ETFs include hedge funds known for arbitrage trades, which aim to profit from market inefficiencies without betting on price movements. For example, the cash and carry trade involves selling Bitcoin futures while simultaneously buying the equivalent spot ETF position.
Bitcoin price shows strength as investors expect the Fed to resume printing, but a handful of global macroeconomic headwinds are still in play.
Bitcoin (BTC) last closed above $68,000 on April 11, despite trading above $67,000 several times in the past five days. Even as Bitcoin gained 2% on May 20, another 7% move is needed to meet its all-time high. Meanwhile, gold reached a record high of $2,450 on May 20, and the S&P 500 index climbed to its all-time peak of 5,325 points. This backdrop has left BTC investors pondering the factors restraining its progress.
It can be argued that Bitcoin’s 51% gains year-to-date reflect investors’ anticipation of the monetary expansion that has recently benefited other assets. With the United States Federal Reserve needing to inject liquidity — either to support the troubled banking sector or to stimulate the economy — investors typically turn to scarce assets for protection. This inclination intensifies if there is an increasing likelihood of an economic recession.
According to UFed data, the broader U.S. monetary base (M2), which had stagnated at $20.8 trillion since May 2023, surpassed $21.0 trillion in April 2024. This shift marks the end of a contraction period that began in April 2022 when the M2 indicator reached $22 trillion. Regardless of interest rate trends, the increase in circulating money suggests rising inflationary pressures, even if companies and individuals are currently hesitant to spend.
Bitcoin futures and options indicators remain stable even after BTC price swiftly rejected off the $63,500 level.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 3.3% on May 14, retesting the $61,000 support level, which was quickly defended. More importantly, this correction marked the second failed attempt within a week to surpass $63,500. Despite the less-than-optimal price action, Bitcoin bulls remain confident, as shown by BTC derivatives metrics.
Although the current Bitcoin price trend appears bearish, some analysts believe it still has a good chance to revisit prices above $70,000.
Trader and analyst Cryptotoad was impressed by how long the $60,500 support level has held. However, he asserts that a higher high, likely a daily close above $67,000, is needed to break the current bearish pattern. While this analysis does not rule out a potential price recovery, it clearly indicates that the trend points to prices below $57,000 in May.