hodling

BTC supply dynamics show all-time high percentage ownership by long-term holders, and Bitcoin investors should "do the math" as a result, analysis says.

Bitcoin (BTC) is becoming scarcer than ever — if you are a BTC price speculator or new to the market.

The latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows a record portion of the available BTC supply is locked up in long-term storage.

Bitcoin long-term holder presence beats all-time highs

At more than 76%, Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) control more of the BTC supply than at any point in history.

Despite the supply increasing with every block, in percentage terms, the low-time preference Bitcoin investor cohort has a record market presence.

As noted by Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, the achievement marks a first in Bitcoin’s lifespan.

“A record 76.2% of the Bitcoin network is locked up with long-term holders today,” he wrote on X on Oct. 18.

“Topping the record set in 2015. Less liquid supply means the same people are bidding on less coins. You do the math.”

Edwards referenced the knock-on effect of the LTH record — that coins available for other market participants are getting rarer.

An accompanying Glassnode chart shows LTHs increasing their BTC exposure dramatically from mid-2021 onward, “hodling” through the entirety of the subsequent bear market. Only during brief periods since has the percentage supply that they control decreased.

In private comments to Cointelegraph, meanwhile, Edwards added that while demand for Bitcoin itself fluctuates, the trend trajectory is clear.

"I don't mean demand is the same as 2015. I mean that for the same given demand, and a reduced supply means price must go up (supply/demand economics)," he explained.

"But in reality demand has increased quite a lot since 2015, so it should put even more upward pressure on price for this cycle. We have never had Bitcoin's supply this constricted going into a halving."

BTC speculators stay on the sidelines

As Cointelegraph reported, the opposite end of the spectrum to LTHs — short-term hodlers (STHs), or speculators, are also of major interest to market observers.

Related: BTC price models hint at $130K target after 2024 Bitcoin halving

The realized price of the STH cohort has functioned as support during much of this year, and this week, fresh data shows that the trend remains in play.

The STH realized price — the price at which all STH-owned coins last moved — sits at just below $27,000, and BTC/USD breaking above it this week is an important bullish impetus, analysis says.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows Bitcoin holding $28,000 support after hitting two-month highs.

In August, meanwhile, the historically low BTC exposure among STH entities was already on the radar.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.