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Bitcoin prices should ‘logically’ correct in Jan, but crypto’s a ‘wild card’

Bitcoin should “logically” be headed for a “sell-the-news” correction in January, according to analysts, but that doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to shake out.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) should “logically” undergo a correction once spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are approved, though commentators also concede that crypto is also a “wild card."

Bitcoin has been gaining momentum over the last 11 months, with a jump in March amid banking uncertainty, another spike in June when BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF, and again in October, similarly due to optimism over spot Bitcoin ETF approvals.

On Dec. 3, Bitcoin cleared the $40,000 mark, its highest level in 19 months.

Sell the news event

James Edwards, a cryptocurrency analyst at Finder, said that “logically,” the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF should trigger a sell-off event.

“I'd like to say that logically this makes it a sell-the-news type event.”

“Buy the rumor, sell the news” is a phrase that describes a situation where a stock or asset rises ahead of anticipated positive news or events but falls once the news is confirmed or the event occurs.

“The idea that this is going to lead to widespread institutional buying on day 1 is a bit too optimistic,” explained Edwards, adding it is unlikely fund managers will “ape in the moment it goes live.”

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XRP spike on hoax filing a ‘bad look’ but won’t sway SEC’s ETF approvals

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas doubts the SEC will deny ETFs after XRP’s price spiked on a faked BlackRock XRP trust filing, but it is a “bad look.”

The Nov. 13 XRP (XRP) price action stemming from a falsified BlackRock XRP trust filing shouldn’t sway the United States securities regulator’s decision to approve or delay spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — but it isn’t a good look, say industry observers.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has previously claimed the Bitcoin market can be manipulated and has knocked back spot Bitcoin ETFs, citing a lack of market manipulation controls.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas told Cointelegraph the fake XRP filing should have little to no impact on the SEC’s final decision.

“We doubt this will impact the situation with spot Bitcoin ETFs,” Balchunas said. However, he added the incident could validate the SEC’s beliefs.

“There’s no doubt it is a bad look that arguably validates the ‘fraud and manipulation’ that the SEC used as grounds for past denial.”

The Nov. 13 filing on the Delaware list of corporations website showed BlackRock creating the “iShares XRP Trust” — a precursor to launching an ETF.

The filing resulted in XRP spiking 12.3% in 30 minutes before it tumbled back down just as quickly once the filing was outed as a hoax by Balchunas and others who received BlackRock’s confirmation that the filing was made by someone posing as its managing director Daniel Schwieger.

Michael Bacina, a partner at the law firm Piper Alderman and chair of the industry group Blockchain Australia, told Cointelegraph he would be “surprised” if the SEC used the incident to postpone ETF applications.

“It’s unlikely an isolated rumor such as this would provide a legal basis for delaying ETF applications already being considered, particularly where they are already subject to deadlines,” he said.

Lucas Kiely, the CEO of wealth management platform Yield App, said the faked XRP filing wouldn’t sway the SEC and stressed the crypto community should “calm down.”

“It is highly unlikely that this incident will play any role in that decision,” Kiely sa.

He iterated that many X (formerly Twitter) pundits have posted fear-mongering headlines to capture audience attention and “spoof the markets.”

“Overall, this is a keep-calm and carry-on moment for the industry and likely a mild amusement for BlackRock.”

XRP filing ‘could easily undermine’ ETF efforts

The SEC has rejected several spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past on claims that investors aren’t protected from “fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices,” argues James Edwards, a crypto analyst at Australian fintech firm Finder.

There’s no reason to suggest it will detract from that view, Edwards claimed.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs to push US slice of crypto ETF trading volume to 99.5% — Analyst

“Unfortunately, events like these could easily undermine efforts to launch a Bitcoin ETF in the U.S.,” Edwards said.

“The onus will be on ETF applicants like BlackRock to demonstrate that they are somehow able to protect clients from market manipulation and fraud, which is difficult given the opaque nature of crypto markets.”

The fake XRP trust filing will be referred to the Delaware Department of Justice for further investigation.

BlackRock filed for a spot Ether ETF on Nov. 9. It is now awaiting regulator approval in addition to its spot Bitcoin ETF filed in June.

Magazine: Asia Express: China’s risky Bitcoin court decision, is Huobi in trouble or not?

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BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF ‘is the best thing to happen’ to BTC, or is it?

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz was among those over the moon with the news, others warn it could be the start of a major institutional takeover.

BlackRock’s latest filing for a spot Bitcoin (BTC) trust will drive investors’ confidence in Bitcoin and may even be “the best thing that could happen” to BTC, according to some crypto industry observers — but others warn of a hidden cost.

During an interview on June 16, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said the approval of BlackRock’s ETF application would be “the best thing that could happen to $BTC.”

“I say a Hail Mary every night that Larry Fink and @blackrock pull off a @bitcoin ETF," Novogratz reportedly said on a Fox News segment.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency analyst James Edwards of Finder.com — a financial product comparison website — told Cointelegraph that the timing of BlackRock’s filing should provide “confidence” in both Bitcoin as an asset and also Coinbase in its upcoming legal battle fight with the SEC:

“BlackRock's willingness to press on with a Bitcoin ETF at a time when the SEC is on a warpath against crypto is very telling. It shows confidence in Bitcoin’s status as a commodity – rather than a security,” he said, adding:

“It’s unlikely that BlackRock would push forward with an ETF of this nature without serious consultation with regulators and confidence in Bitcoin's future legal status.”

BlackRock’s intention to use Coinbase Custody to control funds should also be seen as a massive confidence booster for Coinbase as it prepares its legal defense, Edwards explained.

He added that BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — likely wouldn’t partner with Coinbase had they not been “confident” in Coinbase’s legal position.

The downside

Others argue that the traditional investment giant's latest moves undermine the "ethos" of decentralized cryptocurrencies, or, that the company may find a way to profit from retail investors.

Investor Scott Melker explained in a June 16 interview that such an approval would be a disservice to crypto-native innovators who built the industry:

“As good as this may be for institutional adoption of the space, it kind of violates the ethos, it is a bit of a dishonest push away from the people who built the industry in the United States.”

Cinneamhain Ventures partner and Ethereum bull Adam Cochran believes that BlackRock will swoop in on the “discounted coins” of retail investors, a theory also shared by Melker.

Steven Lubka, a managing director at Swan Bitcoin shared a similar view, predicting that BTC will reach $1 million, but few retail investors will reap the rewards because the bulk of BTC will be owned by BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and other ETF issuers.

Melker added that Wall Street firms will continue to move into the space and that U.S. regulators will likely “choose them” over incumbent platforms.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs: A beginner's guide to exchange-traded funds

ARK Invest, Grayscale, Fidelity, Galaxy Digital, VanEck, Valkyrie Investments, NYDIG, SkyBridge and WisdomTree are among the other investment firms that have applied to the SEC for similar Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ETFs.

Since the news was first reported, the price of BTC has increased 2.2% to $25,584 at the time of writing.

Interestingly, the Fear & Greed Crypto Index increased from 41 to 47 — leaving the fear zone — following the news of BlackRock’s filing.

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Finder’s Poll Shows Vietnam Holds the Highest Percentage of Crypto Ownership Worldwide

Finder’s Poll Shows Vietnam Holds the Highest Percentage of Crypto Ownership WorldwideOn Friday, the product comparison website Finder published the company’s August Cryptocurrency Ownership Report, which surveyed 42,040 citizens across 27 countries. The report ranks countries by digital currency adoption and it shows regions like Vietnam, Indonesia and India have the highest number of people who reported owning cryptocurrency. In Terms of Crypto Ownership Vietnam, Indonesia, […]

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