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Goldman Sachs reportedly started trading on JPMorgan’s repo blockchain

Goldman Sachs reportedly traded digitized treasury bonds for JPM Coin on JPMorgan Chase's Onyx blockchain platform.

After six months of eyeing JPMorgan Chase’s custom blockchain service for repo markets, Goldman Sachs has started trading on the platform. 

Mathew McDermott, global head of digital assets for Goldman Sachs’ global markets division, confirmed the first transaction dated June 17 in an interview, Bloomberg reported.

In the trade, Goldman Sachs swapped a tokenized version of a United States Treasury bond for JPM Coin, JPMorgan’s dollar-pegged stablecoin. JPMorgan started its private blockchain service to drive efficiency in repo agreements last year. The platform uses JPM Coin to swap digitized United States Treasury bonds.

Goldman Sachs was one of the first financial institutions to notice the platform. Last year, McDermott mentioned the efficiency of JPMorgan’s blockchain-based repo-market service, saying that “enterprise blockchain can address a real-world problem in the financial system.”

As a trillion-dollar market, repurchase or “repo” agreements are short-term lending arrangements for dealers in government bonds. An overnight repo allows dealers to sell government bonds to investors and repurchase them the next day at a slightly higher price.

Related: Goldman Sachs to offer Bitcoin futures trading

Calling the trade a pivotal moment for the digitization of transactional activity, McDermott highlighted that, unlike the traditional repo market, the precise timing of the transaction could be logged thanks to blockchain technology.

Smart contracts on the blockchain enable the collateral and cash to interchange simultaneously and immediately, and this is a big step up for the repo market, according to McDermott:

“We pay interest per the minute. We firmly think this will change the nature of the intraday marketplace.”

JPMorgan Chase first announced the launch of its own stablecoin back in early 2019, with an initial focus on international settlements by major corporations. First trades started in December, and since then, JPM Coin has been embraced by transnational corporations for around-the-clock cross-border payments.

The bank established its version of the Ethereum blockchain, Onyx, which is now processing more than $1 billion worth of transactions daily.

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Bitcoinization: JPMorgan Notes ‘Similarly Situated’ Countries Could Make Bitcoin Legal Tender Like El Salvador

Bitcoinization: JPMorgan Notes ‘Similarly Situated’ Countries Could Make Bitcoin Legal Tender Like El SalvadorJPMorgan struggles to “see any tangible economic benefits associated with adopting bitcoin as a second form of legal tender.” Commenting on El Salvador’s bitcoinization, JPMorgan did not rule out that the country’s move to make the cryptocurrency legal tender may be “the beginning of a broader trend among similarly situated, smaller nations.” JPMorgan’s Opinion on […]

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El Salvador’s Bitcoin adoption may jeopardize IMF negotiations: JPMorgan

JP Morgan says that El Salvador's decision to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender is of little economic benefit.

JPMorgan is the latest source to respond to El Salvador’s decision to adopt Bitcoin (BTC) as legal currency within the country.

In a client note tweeted by @DocumentingBTC, the United States banking giant stated that there was little economic benefit to El Salvador adopting BTC as a parallel legal tender to the U.S. dollar.

On Thursday, El Salvador’s parliament passed a historic bill to recognize Bitcoin as legal tender. The “Bitcoin Law” bill passed by an overwhelming majority of 62 out of 84 votes.

Commenting on the move, the JPMorgan client note stated:

“As with the dollarization in the early-2000s, this move does not seem motivated by stability concerns, but rather is growth-oriented […] But it is difficult to see any tangible economic benefits associated with adopting Bitcoin as a second form of legal tender, and it may imperil negotiations with the IMF.”

Facing a potential $3.2 billion budget deficit in 2021, El Salvador is reportedly in talks with the International Monetary Fund for a $1 billion funding program.

Given the IMF’s role in providing access to external credit for nations like El Salvador, JPMorgan’s comments echo similar sentiments espoused by other market commentators as to the potential implications of the BTC adoption move.

Indeed, the IMF itself has raised issues the development by stating that El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as legal tender poses significant legal and financial ramifications.

Related: IMF plans to meet with El Salvador’s president, potentially discussing move to adopt Bitcoin

Earlier on Friday, Benoît Cœuré, the head of the innovation hub at the Bank for International Settlements called El Salvador’s actions an “interesting experiment.” Cœuré, a noted Bitcoin critic once called BTC the “evil spawn” of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision classified Bitcoin in its highest risk category advising banks to hold $1 capital for every $1 worth of Bitcoin held in custody.

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JPMorgan points to weak Bitcoin futures as signal for bear market

Bitcoin futures curve was in backwardation for most of 2018, a year when BTC lost 74% of its value, JPMorgan noted.

JPMorgan’s cryptocurrency market analysts have pointed to the difference between Bitcoin’s (BTC) spot prices and BTC futures prices as a potential bearish sign for the market.

In a Thursday note to clients, JPMorgan analysts led by global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote that the Bitcoin market has returned to backwardation — a situation when the spot price is above futures prices. The analysts said that the past month's correction in crypto markets saw Bitcoin futures reversing into backwardation for the first time since 2018.

According to the strategists, Bitcoin futures backwardation should be viewed as a negative sign for BTC price despite a major rebound on the market over the past two days, with Bitcoin hitting $37,500 on Thursday. The analysts stressed that the Bitcoin futures curve was in backwardation for most of 2018, a year when Bitcoin dropped 74% after hitting its then-historic high of $20,000 in late 2017:

“We believe that the return to backwardation in recent weeks has been a negative signal pointing to a bear market [...] In our opinion the shift in Bitcoin futures into backwardation is a bearish signal echoing 2018.”

In the latest analysis, JPMorgan specifically looked at a 21-day moving average of the second Bitcoin futures spread over spot prices. The analysts observed an “unusual development and a reflection of how weak Bitcoin demand is at the moment from institutional investors” who trade futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The analysts also noted that Bitcoin’s weakened share in the total crypto market value is another concerning trend. As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin dominance on crypto markets tanked to 40% in late May, marking the lowest share over the past three years after surging above 70% this January.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s share in the total crypto market capitalization is 43%, accounting for $682 billion out of the total crypto market value of $1.6 trillion, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Some analysts like crypto index provider Stack Funds believe that BTC dominance could retest its previous highs in the short term.

Bitcoin dominance percentage all-time chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

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Bitcoin price crash isn’t over, says JPMorgan strategist

JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said that a medium-term fair value for Bitcoin now stands between $24,000 and $36,000.

Following the worst May for Bitcoin’s (BTC) price in the past 10 years, the largest cryptocurrency is likely to continue falling in the short term, according to JPMorgan analysts.

Weakened institutional demand is likely to drag the Bitcoin price below $30,000, JPMorgan strategist and Bitcoin expert Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the latest research note to clients.

Based on Bitcoin’s volatility ratios to gold, the JPMorgan analyst forecasted that Bitcoin will continue to trade between $24,000 and $36,000 in the mid-term. “The fair value for bitcoin based on a volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold of around x4 would be 1/4th of $145k or $36k. The fair value for Bitcoin based on the current volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold of around x6 would be 1/6th of $145k or $24k. We thus see a fair value range of $24k to $36k over the medium term,” the note reads.

Panigirtzoglou said that JPMorgan still sees a $145,000 price mark as a long-term “theoretical target” for BTC’s price, “assuming a convergence of Bitcoin volatility to that of gold and an equalization of bitcoin allocations to that of gold in investor portfolios.”

“$145k is the price of Bitcoin that would equalize it with the private sector holdings of gold for investment purposes of around $2.7tr at the moment. Needless to say, full convergence or equalization of volatilities or allocations is unlikely in the foreseeable future,” the strategist wrote, adding:

“The longer-term signal remains problematic, as it has yet to turn short. It would still take price declines to the $26k level before longer-term momentum would signal capitulation.”

Panigirtzoglou noted that institutional investors appear reluctant to buy the dip in the aftermath of a major crypto crash on May 19. “We note that the mere rise in volatility, especially relative to gold, is an impediment to further institutional adoption as it reduces the attractiveness of digital gold vs. traditional gold in institutional portfolios,” the strategist stated. JPMorgan previously suggested that large institutional investors were dumping BTC in favor of gold as Bitcoin touched five-month lows near $30,000.

On Monday, Peter Brandt, a veteran financial analyst and trader, questioned whether Bitcoin’s price is likely to bounce in the near future. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $36,638, down around 1% over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinGecko. The cryptocurrency has lost around 37% over the past 30 days but is still up 286% over the past year.

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JPMorgan Boss Jamie Dimon Personally Advises People to ‘Stay Away’ From Cryptocurrency

JPMorgan Boss Jamie Dimon Personally Advises People to ‘Stay Away’ From CryptocurrencyJPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has given personal advice to investors regarding investing in cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin. He said that his own personal advice to people is to “stay away” from cryptocurrencies. However, his bank, JPMorgan, will not stay away as clients want exposure to this asset class. Jamie Dimon’s Personal Advice to Investors About […]

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Banks cautious about crypto ahead of COVID-19 testimony before US Senate

CEOs of major American banking institutions are heading to Washington to face legislators' questions about how they will aid a post-pandemic economic recovery.

Major Wall Street bank executives will appear before the United States Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday to discuss the role of their financial institutions in the recovery of the American economy.

Democratic lawmakers plan to grill a number of major bank execs, whose firms saw record profits during the COVID-19 pandemic while average Americans struggled to make ends meet. 

In prepared testimonies posted on Tuesday, CEOs at the Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo described their respective banks' responses to major challenges such as inequality, diversity, climate change, taxes, as well as how their banks handle cryptocurrencies. 

This year saw a record bull run in cryptocurrency markets as major financial institutions opened up to digital assets, adding trading desks and custody wings to handle client interests in major cryptos like Bitcoin (BTC).

In his testimony, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said that the bank is continuing to evaluate the benefits, risks and client demand for crypto-related products and services. “Currently, we do not lend against cryptocurrencies and do not bank companies whose primary business is cryptocurrency or the facilitation of cryptocurrency trading and investment,” he said.

Moynihan said that BofA is also assessing new technologies like distributed ledger technology, which could potentially deliver value to the bank's customers. However, while BofA holds over 60 blockchain patents, the bank still has “not found a use case at scale,” Moynihan said.

Similarly, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser also outlined a measured approach to crypto, stating that the bank will need to ensure clear controls and governance before engaging with cryptocurrencies. “Citi is focusing resources and efforts to understand changes in the digital asset space and the use of distributed ledger technology, including demand and interest by our clients, regulatory developments and technology advancements,” Fraser wrote.

Wells Fargo CEO and president Charles Scharf said that the company has been closely following developments around cryptocurrencies. Digital assets “have emerged as alternative investment products though their status as a currency and mechanism of payment remains fluid,” Scharf noted. The exec also mentioned that Wells Fargo is preparing to roll out a pilot for a blockchain-based settlement service within the bank’s global branch network.

The Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees will also hear from the CEOs of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley. The latter two introduced limited crypto services earlier this year, while the former is reportedly mulling opening a crypto trading desk.

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JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Initiate Coverage of Coinbase Stock — up to 60% Price Upside

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Initiate Coverage of Coinbase Stock — up to 60% Price UpsideInvestment banks JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have initiated coverage of the Coinbase Global stock. JPMorgan gives Coinbase an overweight rating with a 60% upside potential while Goldman Sachs begins with a buy rating. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Now Covering Coinbase Stock A couple of major investment banks initiated coverage of the Coinbase Global stock (NASDAQ: COIN) […]

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Bye alt season? Analysts see traders rotating back to Bitcoin after $30K ‘reset’

The short-term investment case for Bitcoin remains intact on the prospects of rotational trading from altcoin markets.

The Bitcoin (BTC) market bias stands divided on how to interpret the BTC price crash this week, wherein the pair lost more than 35% of its value at one point on Wednesday, crashing to as deep as $30,000 on Coinbase.

Global media outlets attributed the plunge to China reiterating its anti-crypto business stance and Tesla suddenly discontinuing Bitcoin payments for its electric vehicles.

Traders buy the dip, leading Bitcoin to bounce immediately after testing $30,000. Source: TradingView.

Nikolas Panigirtzoglou, managing director for global market strategy at JP Morgan, further noted an ongoing decline in the capital that flows into publicly-listed Bitcoin funds. He suspected a rotational investment setup, wherein institutional investors were winding up their positions in the Bitcoin futures market and reallocating the proceeds to build long positions in gold funds.

"It is not clear what is driving this shift," Panigirtzoglou added.

"Perhaps institutional investors are fleeing Bitcoin as they see its previous two-quarter uptrend ending and thus seek the stability of traditional gold away from the rapid downshifting of digital gold."

He nevertheless reminded that Bitcoin's momentum signals remain in positive territory. Thus, it is still too early to declare the end of the bull market.

Bitcoin dominance awaits rebound

Stack Funds' Head of Research Lennard Neo also presented a similar, near-term upside setup, citing a potential rotational setup, but from altcoins to Bitcoin.

Lennard cited the recent directional trends in the Bitcoin market and its strength against a vast pool of alternative digital assets, dubbed as the Bitcoin Dominance Index. He noted that the net crypto market cap surged by around 40%, as Bitcoin's dominance against altcoins declined from 73.5% to 40.5%.

Bitcoin dominance index (blue) vs. crypto market capitalization (red). Source: Stack Funds

That suggests that many investors remained entrench within the cryptocurrency markets, focusing mostly on transferring their Bitcoin gains to altcoins that seemed promising in the short term. Lennard added that Ether's 180 percent year-to-date surge late last month emerged from the same Bitcoin-to-altcoin setup.

But now, the capital would want to fly back into the Bitcoin market, the former Bloomberg analyst stated, adding:

"We believe the rotational playbook has reversed as dark clouds loom over the markets. We are expecting investors to cycle back into Bitcoin as uncertainties increases as the markets undergo another reset. Hence, a bounce in Bitcoin dominance should occur, further supporting Bitcoin’s price in the short-term."

"Pretty routine"

Veteran hedge fund manager and investor Ben Miller also came out in support of Bitcoin's bullish bias, calling its recent downside correction as a "routine pullback."

"If I liked something at higher prices, it is a safe bet I will like it even more at lower prices," said the former Legg Mason Capital Management CIO as he cited similar Bitcoin price dumps during the mammoth 2017 bull market.

But bearish woes continue to offset the bullish predictions, especially as Guggenheim’s CIO Scott Minerd, who called for a $600,000 price target for Bitcoin, did a complete backflip while referring the cryptocurrency with "Tulipmania."

Meanwhile, Mark Haefele, CIO of UBS Global Wealth Management, called Bitcoin an unreliable store-of-value asset over its high price volatility. Julius de Kempenaer, a senior technical analyst at Stockcharts.com, also noted that Bitcoin's recent price crash dampened its safe-haven outlook.

Bitcoin was trading above $40,000 at the time of this writing, up more than 30% from its sessional low of $30,000.

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Institutional investors dump Bitcoin for gold, JPMorgan analysts say

JPMorgan still sees a $140,000 Bitcoin price as a long-term theoretical target.

Amid Bitcoin touching five-month lows near $30,000, JPMorgan Chase analysts suggested that large institutional investors are now dumping Bitcoin (BTC) in favor of gold.

In its Tuesday note to clients, JPMorgan suggested that institutional investors are going back to gold, reversing a major bullish cryptocurrency market action that drove Bitcoin's price above $64,000 in mid-April.

Citing open interest data in Bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the American megabank said that BTC futures now saw the first biggest decline since the bull market that started in late 2020:

“The bitcoin flow picture continues to deteriorate and is pointing to continued retrenchment by institutional investors. Over the past month, bitcoin futures markets experienced their steepest and more sustained liquidation since the bitcoin ascent started last October.”

Despite pointing out the latest trend reversal of gold over Bitcoin, JPMorgan still maintains its previous forecast that Bitcoin is on track to hit $140,000 in the long term. “This $140k price should be thought of as a long-term theoretical target assuming a convergence of bitcoin volatility to that of gold and an equalization of bitcoin allocations to that of gold in investor portfolios,” the new investor note reads.

According to JPMorgan, the current fair value for Bitcoin based on a volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold would be one-quarter of $140,000, or $35,000.

In January, JPMorgan analysts forecast that Bitcoin could potentially evolve into a compelling alternative to gold and hit $146,000 over the long term. “A convergence in volatilities between Bitcoin and gold is unlikely to happen quickly and is in our mind a multiyear process,” JPMorgan noted.

JPMorgan’s remarks come amid Bitcoin experiencing one of its wildest historic crushes in a day, falling from an intraday high of above $43,000 to below the $32,000 price mark. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has somewhat rebounded since then, trading at $37,137 at the time of writing, down around 16% over the past 24 hours. With a continued bloodbath on the market, BTC is still up nearly 300% over the past year, now trading at levels of mid-January.

Bitcoin price all-time chart. Source: CoinMarketCap.

Here’s When Bitcoin (BTC) Could Hit Massive $250,000 Price Tag, According to Billionaire Tim Draper: Report