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London hardfork

Bitcoin trader eyes US dollar for BTC price breakout cue, Ethereum clings to $2K

No sign of a breakout as $33,000 becomes resistance overnight and altcoins trade mostly flat as a result of BTC price weakness.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed below the $33,000 mark on July 9 with a fresh price dip also putting an end to altcoin strength. 

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price flips $33,000 support

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it ranged below a previous support level into Friday.

Earlier in the week, $33,000 saw multiple tests but remained in place as support, this only coming undone on Thursday.

$33,000 then became involved in a form of short-term support/resistance flip, with Bitcoin unable to reclaim it and conversely seeing rejection at each attempted rally.

At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency traded at around $32,700, stuck in a narrow range with $32,000 as its floor. 

For popular trader Crypto Ed, the time was right to eye macro trends for hints as to what could happen to Bitcoin next.

In particular, the U.S. dollar was on the radar — upside in the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), currently at 92.4, should first subside in order for crypto markets to have room to breathe.

"Still keeping an eye on DXY for strength in crypto... I think not before DXY reaches red box, reverses and continues its downtrend. ~$94,= it is," he commented on the day.

U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

As Cointelegraph often reports, DXY strength tends to be coupled with increased price pressure on Bitcoin, with the reverse also true. This inverse correlation is not fool-proof, however, with the past year seeing multiple exceptions to the rule.

Altcoins stall as Bitcoin drops

On altcoins, meanwhile, gains were muted by Bitcoin's slide lower.

The top fifty cryptocurrencies by market cap saw modest losses overnight, contrasting with previous strength. 

Related: Is Bitcoin overbought or oversold? Use Bollinger Bands to find out!

Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin, likewise tracked sideways despite continued progress on its upcoming London hard fork. 

As noted by trader and analyst Rekt Capital, however, price action can still target levels below $2,000 and remain "confluent" with the overall uptrend in 2021.

"Lots of confluent support in the $1850-$2000 area," he added as part of various comments on Thursday.

An attack on 0.070 BTC for the ETH/BTC pair likewise ended in defeat as the week drew to a close, this itself short of major resistance at around 0.075 BTC.

ETH/BTC 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

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Ethereum price can gain 40% on Bitcoin, argues analyst as London fork nears

Technical setups, coupled with optimistic fundamentals, project Ethereum, would rise sharply against Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

Ether (ETH) could rise by almost 40% against Bitcoin in the coming trading sessions, according to one analyst. 

So believes Michaël van de Poppe, an Amsterdam-based market analyst who predicts that the ETH/BTC exchange rate would climb from its current 0.05-0.06 sats range to as high as 0.07 sats soon.

The technical chartist based his bullish analogy on the pair's support level at 0.063 sats. The price floor was instrumental in maintaining ETH/BTC's bullish bias during the mid-May 2021's notorious crypto market crash. It also served as solid support during the pair's uptrend in the early May 2020's trading session. 

"Ethereum is continuing the run against the Bitcoin pair," said Van de Poppe.

"A beautiful flip of the 0.063 regions and crawling upwards at this stage. As long as 0.063 holds, I'm expecting continuation to 0.075."
Ethereum trade setup presented by Michaël van de Poppe. Source: TradingView.com

What the Fork

The bullish analogy appeared right as ETH/BTC stretched its price rebound, from its June 27 low of 0.0552 sats, by 21.28%. It showed that more traders preferred to sell their Bitcoin holdings to seek opportunities in the Ethereum market in recent days. On a year-to-date timeframe, the second-largest cryptocurrency had already surged by more than 160% against Bitcoin.

The transition took cues from the euphoria surrounding Ethereum's consensus layer's transition from its previous, energy-intensive proof-of-work to a more scalable and cheaper proof-of-stake. The project launched the first phase, called Phase 0 or Beacon Chain, in December 2020. It introduced a so-called sharded network architecture to the Ethereum blockchain.

Sharding is a scaling technique that segments the Ethereum network into various groups (called shards). It then assigns nodes to each shard. These nodes have to monitor and validate their respective shards, thereby removing the need for each node to validate every transaction, which is the case in the current proof-of-work consensus.

The next phase that brings Ethereum closer to proof-of-stake is EIP-1559, also known as the London hard fork. The upgrade proposes to replace Ethereum's "first-price auction" fee model with a base network fee, modifiable per the network's demand. It hopes to solve the blockchain's higher gas and transaction fee problem. It also aims to make ETH a deflationary token by burning the base network fee.

Therefore...

Due to impending scarcity, analysts and traders see huge upside potential in the Ethereum market. The bullish formula is simple: Ether's drying supply in circulation against rising demand would make it more valuable than it is currently. And as a result, the cryptocurrency has been rising against Bitcoin so far into 2021.

Additionally, CryptoQuant, a South Korea-based crypto analytics firm, reported a rising holding behavior among Ether traders, taking cues from their declining ETH reserves across all the cryptocurrency exchanges.

Ether prices typically move inversely to its reserves across cryptocurrency exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

The amount of ETH held in all exchanges' wallets reached a 2.5 year low on Monday.

The reduction of Ether on exchanges is clearly a positive indication that takes backing from investor’s trust in the future of the blockchain, Yuriy Mazur, head of data analysis department at CEX.IO Broker, explained.

The executive added that investors are taking alternative means to secure their ETH holdings during its price correction instead of dumping them outright for cash. He cited ETH-based investments into the decentralized finance sector as the prime example.

"Ethereum total value locked has soared in the past year. Staking in the forthcoming Ethereum 2.0 (Proof-of-Stake consensus model) has also absorbed the ethereum leaving trading platforms," Mazur said, adding that:

"The depletion of Ether on exchanges will contribute to a circulation scarcity that can have a positive impact on price."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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