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What crypto traders can learn from Charlie Munger — even if he hated BTC

Legendary investor Charlie Munger may have once called Bitcoin “rat poison squared” — but that doesn't mean crypto traders should ignore his years of investing wisdom.

Legendary investor and billionaire Charlie Munger, known as the right-hand man of Warren Buffet who helped build investment powerhouse Berkshire Hathaway, has passed away at 99 years of age.

Munger’s family informed Berkshire “that he peacefully died this morning at a California hospital,” according to a company announcement on Nov. 28.

Munger, who served as vice chairman at Buffet’s empire since 1978, accumulated a net worth of $2.6 billion and was routinely praised for adopting a sound investment and stock-picking philosophy throughout his tenure at Berkshire.

While Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies weren’t favored investments for Munger and Buffet, who once referred to Bitcoin (BTC) as “rat poison” and “rat poison squared,” crypto traders could still benefit from Munger’s learnings over his 60 years of investing experience. Here are some approaches to investment that Munger swore by: 

Only invest in what you know

Munger said Berkshire Hathaway would often categorize stocks into one of three baskets when evaluating a potential investment.

“We have three baskets for investing: yes, no, and too tough to understand.”

The latter could explain why Munger and Buffet never invested in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, but the takeaway message is that they avoided investing in what they didn’t know.

Buffet has previously admitted he and Munger — both regarded as tech skeptics — were “too dumb to realize” the potential of Amazon’s e-commerce business in the 1990s and underestimated the company’s founder, Jeff Bezos.

Berkshire didn’t invest in Microsoft or Google either. “We blew it,” Munger once said, reflecting on the firm’s decision not to invest in Google.

Despite that, Berkshire stuck to the sectors it knew inside out, such as the banking and food and beverage sectors, making huge profits from investments in Bank of America, American Express, Coca-Cola Co, and later Apple after initially deciding not to invest in it.

Munger and Buffet also mastered the art of valuation by interrogating a firm’s balance sheet before making an investment decision, which Munger once said is the only intelligent way to invest.

“All intelligent investing is value investing [...] You must value the business in order to value the stock.”

While blockchains and protocols can’t often be valued via a discounted cash flow model or other traditional methods, plenty of insights can be obtained from on-chain data — from the number of daily active users and transaction volumes to total value locked (relative to market cap) and net inflows and outflows, to name a few.

Temperament, not IQ, is a bigger contributor to investment success

Munger was never been one to dive headfirst into a new trend, preferring to stay on the more conservative side of investing.

He’s previously said many “high IQ” people are terrible investors because they have terrible temperaments. “Great investors,” on the other hand, tread with caution and think things through:

"The great investors are always very careful. They think things through. They take their time. They're calm. They're not in a hurry. They don't get excited. They just go after the facts, and they figure out the value. And that's what we try to do."

“You need to keep raw irrational emotion under control,” Munger said in another comment.

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Having been in the investment arena for over 60 years, Munger says patience is also of great importance when accumulating wealth.

“The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.”

Build conviction and stomach volatility

Munger has seen Berkshire’s investment portfolio dip several times over the decades, such as the Black Monday crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2007-2008 and most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic.

He once stressed that long-term investors must learn to stand by their investments when unfavorable macroeconomic conditions trigger market downfalls:

"If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you're not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get."

“There are going to be periods when there’s a lot of agony and other periods when there’s a boom,” Munger said in a separate comment. “You just have to learn to live through them.”

Munger was born on Jan. 1, 1924 — meaning he passed away 34 days shy of his 100th birthday.

"Berkshire Hathaway could not have been built to its present status without Charlie's inspiration, wisdom and participation," Buffett said in a statement.

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Bitcoin price surge: Breakthrough or bull trap? Pundits weigh in

Bitcoin nearly broke its record for the longest streak of daily green price candles this month, but many believe its recent surge could be short-lived.

While Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a strong price pump to kick off the new year, many industry pundits are not convinced the cryptocurrency will continue its upward trajectory — at least in the short to mid-term. 

The impressive price surge — which saw BTC experience 14 days of consecutive price increases earlier this month — has called on many to consider whether the surge marks a significant “breakthrough” or is indicative of a “bull trap."

Speaking to Cointelegraph on Jan. 23, James Edwards, a cryptocurrency analyst at Australian-based fintech firm Finder said the argument for a “bull trap” is stronger, warning the recent surge could be “short-lived.”

He stated that while the BTC price moved upwards over the weekend, the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 also made similar rallies:

"This suggests to me that the rally in crypto is not unique, and instead part of a wider market uplift as inflation figures stall and a risk-on appetite appears to return to investments. So Bitcoin is just enjoying the effects of positive sentiment that originated elsewhere. This is likely to be short-lived.”

Edwards added that cryptocurrency markets still have some “significant hurdles to clear before a new bull market can begin.”

Among those obstacles, he mentioned include the continued fallout over FTX’s collapse and the recent Chapter 11 filing by Genesis on Jan. 19.

"As such, we're going to see further sell-offs and downsizing as crypto firms adjust their balance sheets and dump tokens onto the market to cover debt and try to stay afloat,” he explained.

In a statement to Cointelegraph, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone wasn’t confident in the BTC price trajectory either, citing recessionary-like macroeconomic conditions as too big of a barrier for BTC to overcome.

“With the world leaning into recession and most central banks tightening, I think the macroeconomic ebbing tide is still the primary headwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices.”

The sentiment was also shared among some on Crypto Twitter, with cryptocurrency analyst and swing trader “Capo of Crypto” telling his 710,000 Twitter followers on Jan. 21 that BTC’s push past resistance looks like “the biggest bull trap” he has ever seen:

However, not all industry pundits were as bearish.

Cryptocurrency market analysis platform IncomeSharks appeared bullish, having shared a “Wall St. Cheat Sheet” chart to its 379,300 Twitter followers on Jan. 22 making a mockery of the “Bears” who think the latest price movements are indicative of a “bull trap.”

Sem Agterberg, the CEO and co-founder of AI-based trading bot CryptoSea also recently shared a flood of posts expressing positive sentiment towards BTC price action to his 431,700 Twitter followers, suggesting that a “BULL FLAG BREAKOUT” towards $25,000 may soon be on the cards:

Meanwhile, others have refrained from making a forecast on the price, likely given the unpredictability of crypto markets.

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Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $22,738, while the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is currently at “Neutral” with a score of 50 out of 100, according to Alternative.me.

The cryptocurrency managed to break out of the “Fear” zone on Jan. 13 — which was then scored at 31 — after the BTC price increased for seven consecutive days.

Market sentiment of Bitcoin expressed on a 0-100 “Fear & Greed Index” scale. Source: Alternative.me.

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