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Bitcoin ‘bear flag’ breakdown targets $15K as US dollar hits 20-year high

BTC is losing its safe haven status to the dollar, with mutual funds increasing their cash holdings by $208 billion in the first half of 2022.

On Sept. 6, Bitcoin (BTC) price crumbled below $20,000 and the asset looks ready to undergo further decline in September due to a strong U.S. dollar and an ominous technical analysis pattern.

Bitcoin eyes $15,000 next

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin risks dropping to $15,000 or below in the coming weeks after breaking out of its prevailing "bear flag" pattern.

For the unversed, bear flags form when the price consolidates higher inside a parallel, ascending range after a strong downtrend. They typically resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend's length.

BTC/USD daily price chart featuring 'bull flag' pattern. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin has entered the so-called breakdown stage of its bear flag pattern, with its downside target lurking south of $15,000, as illustrated in the chart above.

Cash is king

The prospects of a weaker Bitcoin heading further into 2022 are growing mainly because of a worsening economic backdrop.

Bitcoin's 60% year-to-date price decline is one of the unfortunate consequences of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy to bring inflation down to 2% from its current 8.5% level. In detail, the U.S. central bank has raised its benchmark rates to the 2.25% - 2.5% range via four consecutive hikes in 2022.

The hikes have boosted the appetite for cash-based securities over riskier assets like Bitcoin.

For instance, U.S. banks with savings accounts offer clients an annual percentage yield of 2% or more from around 0.5% at the start of this year, BankRate.com data shows.

Meanwhile, a Goldman Sachs analysis shows that mutual funds with $2.7 trillion in equity under management have increased their cash holdings by $208 billion in the first half of 2022, the fastest allocation rate to date.

Mutual funds asset rotations noted in HY1/2022. Source: Goldman Sachs

The broader demand for cash has helped the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a pool of top foreign currencies, climb to 110.55 on Sept. 6, its highest level since 2002.

DXY daily price chart. Source: TradingView

As a result, cash has drastically outperformed stocks, Bitcoin, Ethereum, copper, lumber and other assets in 2022.

Related: A range-break from Bitcoin could trigger buying in ADA, ATOM, FIL and EOS this week

This trend may continue, given that the Federal Reserve plans to continue its rate-hiking spree, according to Jerome Powell's statements at the recent Jackson Hole symposium.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Mudrex launches DeFi mutual fund model for retail investors

The crypto firm is expected to offer investment options for DeFi and NFT assets.

Cryptocurrency asset management firm Mudrex has announced the launch of its new Coin Sets investment vehicle.

The new offering allows investors to diversify their asset portfolio across a range of high-performing decentralized finance, or DeFi, assets, as well as nonfungible tokens, or NFT’s. 

The niche financial model fosters the distribution of risk exposure in what is often considered a volatile marketplace, allowing investors to bet on the value proposition of an entire sector, rather than the individual potential of a single asset. The basket of assets is also rebalanced on a monthly basis to recalculate the risk and opportunity for investors. 

This is reportedly the first time a product of this kind has been launched to the retail marketplace, as opposed to mutual funds with similar design and functionalities that exclusively target high-net worth clientele and institutional-grade investors.

Launched in January 2018, the San Francisco-based organization, is experiencing a moment of expansion, registering over 40,000 users and in excess of $15 million in assets under management.

In April 2020, the firm launched a digital asset trading platform titled Mudrex Invest, designed to provide automated expert trading services to regular individuals.

On Aug. 10, it was announced that the firm had received a seed funding raise of $2.5 million orchestrated by Nexus Venture Partners, with additional participation from the likes of Village Global and Kunal Shah, among others.

It is expected that the recent acquisition of funds will contribute to expanding the firm's operational workforce, in addition to the deployment of further products and services.

Related: Portfolio rebalancing through DeFi must be simplified to see adoption

Cointelegraph spoke to the co-founder of Mudrex, Edul Patel, who commented on the identified target audience for the launch of the new product:

The demand for a simple to invest product like Coinsets is so universal that we have a lot of interest from across demographics. The product is especially attractive to new entrants into crypto who are quickly overwhelmed with the information overload in the asset class.

In addition, Patel revealed an innovative aspect of the Coin Set product which encourages a self-assembling approach to portfolio creation, as well as reporting that one of India's largest portfolio management systems, MintingM, have utilized the model for their flagship product xMINT.

"One very interesting feature that we have enabled is letting pro traders/creators and influencers build their own Coin Sets and distribute it to their own communities to unlock wealth creation for theme."

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4 reasons why Paul Tudor Jones’ 5% Bitcoin exposure advice is difficult for major funds

Major funds are probably interested in Bitcoin and altcoins, but four significant hurdles are preventing them from investing.

In an interview with CNBC on June 14, legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones sounded the alarm over advancing inflation. After last week's consumer price index (CPI) report showed that United States inflation had hit a 13-year high, the founder of Tudor Investment advocated for a 5% Bitcoin (BTC) portfolio allocation.

Mutual Fund companies ranked by assets under management, USD. Source: MutualFundDirectory.org

When combined, the world's 50 largest asset managers oversee $78.9 trillion in funds. A mere 1% investment in cryptocurrencies would amount to $789 billion, which more than Bitcoin's entire $723 billion market capitalization.

However, there's a fundamental misunderstanding on how this industry works, and this is what impedes a 1% allocation, let alone a 5% one.

Let's investigate a few major hurdles that the traditional financial sector will have to vault before really becoming Bitcoin apes.

Hurdle 1: Perceived risk

Investing in Bitcoin remains a significant hurdle for large mutual fund managers, especially considering their perceived risk. On June 11, The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) warned investors about the risks of Bitcoin futures trading — citing market volatility, a lack of regulation and fraud.

Even though several stocks and commodities have similar or even higher 90-day volatility, somehow, the agency's focus remains on Bitcoin.

DoorDash (DASH), a $49 billion U.S. listed company, holds a 96% volatility, versus Bitcoin's 90%. Meanwhile, Palantir Technologies (PLTR), a $44 billion U.S. tech stock, has an 87% volatility.

Hurdle 2: Indirect exposure is nearly impossible for US-based companies

Most of the mutual fund industry, mainly the multi-billion dollar asset managers, cannot buy physical Bitcoin. There is nothing specific about this asset class, but most pension funds and 401k vehicles do not allow direct investments in physical gold, art, or farmland.

However, it is possible to circumvent these limitations using exchange-traded funds (ETFs), exchange-traded notes (ETN), and tradeable investment trusts. Cointelegraph previously explained the differences and risks assigned to ETFs and trusts, but that only scratches the surface as each fund has its own regulations and limits.

Hurdle 3: Fund regulation and administrators may prevent BTC purchases

While the fund manager has complete control over the investment decisions, they must follow each specific vehicle regulation and observe the risk controls imposed by the fund's administrator. Adding new instruments such as CME Bitcoin futures, for example, might require SEC approval. Renaissance Capital's Medallion funds faced this issue in April 2020.

Those opting for CME Bitcoin futures, such as Tudor Investment, have to constantly roll over the position ahead of monthly expiries. This issue represents both liquidity risk and error tracking from the underlying instrument. Futures were not designed for long-term carry, and their prices vastly differ from regular spot exchanges.

Hurdle 4: The traditional banking industry remains a conflict of interest

Banks are a relevant player in this field as JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch, BNP Paribas, UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Citi figure among the world's largest mutual funds managers.

The relationship with the remaining asset managers is tight because banks are relevant investors and distributors of these independent mutual funds. This entanglement goes even further because the same financial conglomerates dominate equities and debt offerings, meaning they ultimately decide on a mutual funds' allocation in such deals.

While Bitcoin is yet to pose a direct threat to these industry mammoths, the lack of understanding and risk aversion, including the regulation uncertainties, cause most of the global $100 trillion professional fund managers to avoid the stress of venturing into a new asset class.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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