1. Home
  2. Nonfarm Payroll

Nonfarm Payroll

$30K BTC price target stays valid as ‘boring’ Bitcoin heads into US jobs data

Bitcoin still lacks direction, traders agree, but both $25,000 and $30,000 remain as targets once conditions change.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to a narrow trading range into April 7 as crypto analysts awaited the week’s main United States macroeconomic data.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

$30,000 or $25,000 for Bitcoin?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed another day’s ranging around $28,000 for BTC/USD.

The pair had shunned volatility over most of the week, but now faced nonfarm payroll (NFP) numbers as a final potential catalyst for risk assets.

“Expectations are that we’ll be seeing 3.6%, similar to last month. Based on the financial numbers of this week, I’d rather expect 3.7-3.8%,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, summarized about his expectations.

“Result; $DXY down, $BTC unchanged and indices down/up depending on how far the outlier will be.”

A further Twitter post argued that $30,000 remained on the table should bulls protect current support levels.

“Bitcoin remains in a boring state of mind. Consolidating for weeks, while old altcoins are breaking out,” he continued.

“I'm still looking at support here, through which $27,600 needs to sustain. If that's lost, $25,000-25,400 seems likely. Holding here through NFP -> $30,000 next.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ Twitter

Related: $1.12B in Bitcoin options expire this week, and bulls appear to be at a disadvantage

Fellow trader Crypto Tony agreed that the current trading range may nonetheless prove sticky.

“I bet we will be staring at this range for awhile. If we do range for awhile and Alts start to run, it only confirms the capital flow is in motion,” he forecast on the day.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ Twitter

Popular trader Anbessa showed similar downside targets to Van de Poppe, eyeing $27,940 as an important intraday level to defend.

Bollinger bands portend BTC price volatility

Examining volatility, meanwhile, popular analyst HornHairs noted that Bollinger bands were offering a telltale sign that calm conditions were about to break.

Related: Bitcoin ‘faces headwinds’ as US money supply drops most since 1950s

“Bitcoin volatility contraction as tight as its been all year. The games shall begin shortly. Dust off your weapons of choice for the volatility ahead,” he advised.

An accompanying chart confirmed the Bollinger bands “squeezing” around spot price, reflecting the current tight range, with the implication that a challenge of the upper or lower band should soon begin.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with Bollinger bands. Source: TradingView

As Cointelegraph reported, 2023 has been a year of contrasting volatility phenomena, with BTC/USD gaining 40% in January but ending February almost exactly at its starting position.

March upside totaled 23%, while in April, Bitcoin is currently down 2.3%, according to statistics from Coinglass.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Democratic SEC Commissioner Jaime Lizárraga Announces Plan To Step Down, Following Gary Gensler’s Footsteps

Bitcoin weekly outlook: Why a $50K-retest is likely ahead of Friday’s US jobs data

Bitcoin bulls remain pressured under $50,000 in the week that would shed more light on the Federal Reserve's taper outlook based on non-farm payroll numbers.

The heavy selling in the U.S. dollar market at the end of last week assisted Bitcoin (BTC) to climb above $49,000. However, BTC struggled to extend its climb above $50,000, a psychological resistance level, as investors remained cautious about the Federal Reserve's taper timing

Bitcoin corrects after logging its week-to-date high of $49,667. Source: TradingView.com

In detail, the Fed chairman Jerome Powell delivered a mildly dovish outlook during his speech on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. At one point, he refrained from providing hints regarding when the Fed would start unwinding its $120 billion a month asset purchasing program.

Powell noted that they would begin tapering sometime by the end of 2021, albeit admitting that the fast-spreading Delta variant of the Covid-19 could play spoiler.

"We will be carefully assessing incoming data and the evolving risks," he said.

"Timing and pace of taper will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff."

At the same time, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that annual Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price, which the Fed considers its preferred inflation metric, remained unchanged at 3.6%, about 1.6% higher than the central bank's intended target.

Things to focus on next week

The first half of the week has no major macroeconomic events that could directly or indirectly impact Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market.

But on Sep. 1,  the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute will reveal August's private sector employment data. Additionally, investors will likely watch the ISM Manufacturing PMI for its Prices Paid component. In doing so, they could gauge input price pressures in the manufacturing sector to determine inflation.

On Friday, the Non-farm Payroll (NFP) data expects to show that the U.S. economy added 763,000 jobs in August, about 19% lower than July's print of 943,000. As a result, disappointing job data could delay the Fed's decision to taper its asset purchase program and help boost the price of risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Technical setup

Technically, Bitcoin has been trending inside a short-term ascending channel, hinting at a move towards the lower trendline (near $47,000) for a potential pullback towards the upper trendline (above $50,000).

Bitcoin 4-hour price chart featuring ascending channel pattern. Source: TradingView.com

An extended sell-off below the Channel's lower trendline could risk crashing the BTC/USD exchange rates towards the 200-4H exponential moving average (200-4H EMA; the yellow wave) at near $44,600.

Related: Bitcoin in line for 'phenomenal' weekly close if BTC price holds $49K

The downside target appears closer to the one visible on the weekly chart.

Bitcoin weekly price chart setup. Source: TradingView.com

The BTC/USD exchange rate has been testing the 0.786-line (near $50,779) of the Fibonacci retracement graph following a 75.36% bullish move. As a result, an extended pullback move from the said price ceiling brings Bitcoin's next downside target near the 0.618-Fib line (around $43,886).

Conversely, a neutral RSI reading (below 70) may assist the bulls to reclaim $50,000 for a bullish breakout move. In doing so, they could target levels near $60,000 as their next upside target.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Democratic SEC Commissioner Jaime Lizárraga Announces Plan To Step Down, Following Gary Gensler’s Footsteps