1. Home
  2. PCE

PCE

Bitcoin price keeps falling under $60K — Here is why

Many analysts say a drop in spot Bitcoin ETF demand is the primary reason for BTC’s price weakness, but there’s more to it than that. 

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to maintain above $60,000 for an entire week, with the latest rejection occurring on Aug. 27. The subsequent 9.9% two-day correction, which saw Bitcoin fall to a low of $57,918 on Aug. 28, resulted in the forced liquidation of $143 million in leveraged BTC longs on derivatives exchanges. Traders are now questioning why Bitcoin keeps failing to break above $60,000.

Some analysts attribute the recent weakness to the disappointing spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows. However, such data is typically reflexive, meaning traders often turn bearish after a news event alters their perception. More crucially, Bitcoin's most recent correction on Aug. 29 coincided with movements in the S&P 500 index.

Bitcoin/USD (left) vs S&P 500 futures (right). Source: TradingView

Read more

Analyst Issues Altcoin Warning, Says Black Swan Event Could Trigger ‘Very Last Shakeout’

BTC price support ‘thinning’ below $60K, while Bitcoin ignores cool PCE

BTC price performance offers little inspiration through the latest U.S. macro data, but concern is brewing among Bitcoin analysts over $60,000 support.

Bitcoin (BTC) shrugged off United States macro data on June 28 as doubts lingered over the strength of $60,000 support.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action circling the lower $61,000 range after the Wall Street open.

The latest print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, known as the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, conformed to expectations across the board.

Read more

Analyst Issues Altcoin Warning, Says Black Swan Event Could Trigger ‘Very Last Shakeout’

Bitcoin derivatives turn bearish as traders anticipate sub $60K BTC price

Bitcoin derivatives data suggests that macroeconomic and crypto-specific factors are behind BTC’s recent drop below $60,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 5.8% between June 23 and June 24, reaching its lowest level in seven weeks at $59,700. Despite a modest recovery to $60,400, a total of $153 million in leveraged long BTC futures was forcefully liquidated due to insufficient margin. This movement caused derivatives metrics to shift to a neutral sentiment, ending a bullish trend that had lasted five weeks.

Traders are now questioning whether the worsening crypto market conditions indicate a longer bear market or a momentary panic due to miners being forced to cover expenses amid lower profitability and the potential sale of large stashes by known entities. Should traders wait for a dip to $57,500 or increase their positions during this period of fear, uncertainty, and doubt?

Some analysts raised concerns after the failed exchange Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate announced the imminent repayment in Bitcoin. Anonymous influencer fejau stressed that the disbursement announcement could have been anticipated by insiders, which explains the recent price weakness. However, fejau is puzzled by Bitcoin’s performance given the constructive macroeconomic scenario.

Read more

Analyst Issues Altcoin Warning, Says Black Swan Event Could Trigger ‘Very Last Shakeout’

Bitcoin eyes best November since 2020 as PCE fails to move BTC price

Bitcoin remains on track to seal its highest monthly close since May 2022, but BTC price is stubbornly rangebound.

Bitcoin (BTC) brushed off fresh United States macro data into the Nov. 30 Wall Street open as traders focused on the monthly close.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

PCE keeps Fed pivot pressure alive

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price movements sticking to a narrow intraday range below $38,000.

After a failed breakout the day prior, hopes were high that the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, would help fuel volatility.

This, however, had not come to pass at the time of writing, with November’s final Wall Street open still to come.

PCE came in broadly in line with expectations — a boost for the Fed’s monetary tightening and reinforcement of declining inflation.

Querying whether interest rates might now begin to fall — the key takeaway for risk assets — financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter nonetheless stayed cautious.

“Another sign inflation is falling but still above the Fed's 2% target. Can the Fed really pivot now?” it queried on X (formerly Twitter) after the PCE results.

Kobeissi once again alluded to words from Bill Ackman, founder and CEO and founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management who earlier in the week predicted rate cuts beginning as soon as Q1, 2024.

“It's important to note that the effects of monetary policy lag. However, does the Fed really want to risk jumping the gun and cutting rates too soon?” it continued.

“We believe calls for rate cuts in Q1 2024 are too ambitious.”
Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

PCE did not manage to dent market expectations of Fed policy, with data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still showing almost unanimous expectations of a rate hike pause continuing next month.

November BTC price gains near 10%

For Bitcoin market participants, however, the monthly close was of more interest.

Related: Bitcoin ETF will drive 165% BTC price gain in 2024 — Standard Chartered

BTC/USD was up nearly 10% in November at the time of writing, making it the first “green” eleventh month of the year since 2020. Above $37,660, the close would become its highest since May 2022.

In November 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin fell 7.1% and 16.2%, respectively, per data from statistics resource CoinGlass.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Analyzing the current chart setup, popular trader Jelle saw reasons to be bullish in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) readings.

“After spending the past month building up a giant hidden bullish divergence, Bitcoin has breached its RSI downtrend!” he told X subscribers earlier on the day.

An accompanying chart showed the required area for bulls to secure.

“If price can hold the grey box, I think this starts moving higher soon. All eyes on the monthly close,” Jelle added.

BTC/USD chart with RSI. Source: Jelle/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Analyst Issues Altcoin Warning, Says Black Swan Event Could Trigger ‘Very Last Shakeout’

BTC price shrugs off strong PCE data as Bitcoin traders eye $28K range

Bitcoin traders expect downside as BTC price offers a muted reaction to the Fed's "preferred" inflation metric.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed rangebound at the July 28 Wall Street open despite further United States inflation data beating expectations.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Fed's "preferred" inflation metric points to waning pressure

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action getting only a modest boost from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index print.

This came in below estimates, hinting that U.S. inflation was continuing to subside and copying other data prints from the week.

Commenting on its implications, financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that PCE represented the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation metric, as previously revealed by Chair Jerome Powell.

“PCE inflation is now at its lowest since April 2021. The Fed may finally have inflation under control,” it suggested in part of social media analysis.

Much like the July 26 Fed interest rate hike and the July 27 U.S. Q2 GDP estimate, however, Bitcoin refused to turn on volatility, sticking between $29,000 and $29,500.

Bitcoin stays below bulls' resistance target

Among traders, there was still appetite for BTC price downside, with $30,000 resistance now in place for over a week.

Related: Bitcoin price risks ‘major volatility’ as 10K BTC hits exchanges

Popular trader Crypto Tony confirmed that he remained short BTC below $29,600.

“I expect continuation down to $28,000 in time, but for sure we could range here for a little while before the drop,” he told Twitter followers on the day.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/Twitter

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades likewise placed emphasis on the loss of the local range focused on the $30,000 mark.

“With Bitcoin Rejecting from the previous range, I think it makes sense to prepare for low $28Ks,” he argued.

“Invalidation upon retaking $29.5K but there seems to be a lot of supply at that level and little spot bid to bring it up. Likely a choppy road on the way there.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/Twitter

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, meanwhile spied what he called “deviation” on the daily BTC/USD chart — something previously occurring in February and which was followed by an upward rebound.

Van de Poppe additionally queried whether the weekend, with its thinner liquidity and more options for volatile movement, could produce a "classic" comeback.

Magazine: Should you ‘orange pill’ children? The case for Bitcoin kids books

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Analyst Issues Altcoin Warning, Says Black Swan Event Could Trigger ‘Very Last Shakeout’

‘Smart money’ eyes BTC bull run: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

BTC price action may have taken a serious hit last week, but not every class of Bitcoin investor is dashing to the exit.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in a precarious position after seeing its most extensive losses since November 2022.

In a major comedown from ten-month highs, BTC/USD lost around 10% before the weekly candle finally closed.

At around $27,600, the culmination of a grim few days for long traders means that BTC/USD is now caught battling for last month’s support.

Market participants are in two minds as to how the situation might play out — some are betting on deeper downside, while others remain confident of retesting those multi-month highs.

Catalysts may come in the form of United States macroeconomic data releases later in the week, while markets are also gearing up for the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

With the recent correction taking some of the “greed” out of crypto sentiment, can the shock give way to more sustainable upside or is the bull market over, at least for now?

Cointelegraph takes a look at the data and opinions behind current BTC price action.

BTC price fights for support amid warning of "bigger corrective move"

It was a mercifully nonvolatile weekly close for Bitcoin, which at $27,600 nonetheless finished up $2,700 under its starting position.

This marked its most brutal week since the FTX debacle hit in November last year, Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Currently targeting $27,000, BTC/USD now faces a decision — sit near current support, also a focus in March, or break out.

“Spot premium back to the same levels it was at previously while trading at this price range. Funding rates slightly negative across the board. Nothing insane yet,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized on the day.

Fellow trader Crypto Tony maintained his target of $26,600, while Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, said that higher levels must return for bulls to gain the upper hand.

“Bitcoin has been unable to break and stay above $27,820 (green range), which is a key level I've been sharing,” he explained alongside a chart.

“For short-term momentum to shift in favor of the bulls, I think we need to see price get (and stay) above this range. It continues to act as resistance…”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Caleb Franzen/ Twitter

The latest data from the Binance order book meanwhile showed resistance increasing at $28,000.

According to monitoring resource Material Indicators, this was an attempt to push spot price lower in order to fill bids at more appealing levels.

On the more conservative side, trader Mark Cullen predicted that the worst was yet to come.

“A nice bear flag formed over the weekend, looking very corrective with volatility dropping while price increases & H4 bear divergences forming,” he tweeted on the day.

“I am looking for the range lows to get swept before Bitcoin has a bigger corrective move.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Mark Cullen/Twitter

PCE print due as markets "price in" new Fed rate hike

The week’s macro triggers come principally in the form of corporate earnings and economic data releases from the U.S.

These will center on GDP and jobless claims on April 27, as well as the March print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index a day later.

Corporate earnings will also continue, while looming on the horizon is the May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at which the Fed will decide on its next interest rate changes.

The strength, or otherwise, of intervening macro data prints influences that decision considerably, Chair Jerome Powell has confirmed, with markets thus in “wait and see” mode until the last of the figures are in.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, however, consensus is now overwhelmingly in favor of yet another rate hike, further pressuring U.S. banks and the wider financial system.

The chances of another 0.25% hike currently stand at 85%.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

“Expectations for a +25bps hike in the next FOMC meeting are high, but not reliable due to fluctuations,” investor Crypto Awakenings wrote in part of commentary on the day.

“A pause announcement by Powell can trigger a break above $30k for Bitcoin. If a hike is announced, it's likely already priced in by the market and confirms a ‘sell in May and go away’ won't happen in 2023. The pause may happen in May or July, with May being more probable.”

Trader Ash WSB likewise drew attention to the fact that the May hike was likely “priced in” by the market, suggesting less chance of a surprise if the Fed follows through.

“Technically I think we'll be having the classic Monday drop and then we'll reverse,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, added in part of his own analysis including shorter timeframes.

“GDP & FED coming up. Markets are pricing in reality in which 25bps is a likelihood. Waiting for a clear reclaim of $27,800 or bull. divs in $26,800 area for longs on Bitcoin.”

Panicking Bitcoin traders realizing losses

It is no secret that the past week’s BTC price action spooked many a less experienced trader, and data proves it.

According to figures from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, younger coins being sent to exchanges at a loss increased sharply last week.

Glassnode commonly differentiates the BTC supply by age, with “long-term holders” (LTHs) used to describe wallets hosting coins for 155 days or more. Less than that, and they become “short-term holders” (STHs) — frequently corresponding to the more speculative end of the Bitcoin investor base.

The data shows that since around April 16, STH coins — those which last moved within the 155 days prior — were increasingly moved to exchanges at a lower price than that at which they moved in their previous transaction.

These STH realized losses suggest increasing panic, LTH realized losses also increasing among those moving funds to exchanges.

Bitcoin Relative Long/Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss to Exchanges chart. Source: Glassnode

Separate data from Coinglass puts weekly inflows to largest exchange Binance at 21,000 BTC.

Bitcoin exchange balance chart. Source: Coinglass

Looking at the ratio of transaction volume profit and loss across both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH), meanwhile, research firm Santiment notes some curious behavior.

Recent days have seen an inordinate amount of loss-making volume versus volume in profit, despite the relatively shallow price retracement of both assets.

“With many traders FOMO'ing in Bitcoin above $30k and Ethereum above $2k this past week, loss transactions have mounted as markets pulled back,” it explained over the weekend.

“Since Thursday, traders are moving coins below prices they obtained them at 3 times as often as above.”
Bitcoin, Ethereum transaction volume profit/ loss data annotated chart. Source: Santiment/ Twitter

Analyst: "Smart money is done accumulating BTC"

Should the above phenomenon point to a shakeout of speculative traders, it may have come right on time — at least by historical standards.

In his latest update on market strength, popular Bitcoin analyst Moustache revealed that behind the scenes, the current Bitcoin bull run is playing out just like all others before it.

Using the Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) — a form of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — Moustache suggested that Bitcoin was now at a pivotal point.

“Smart money,” he argued, has already bought the dip, and is now waiting for the real upside to begin.

“Smart money is done accumulating BTC. I told you a few weeks ago that once QQE >0 = Accumulation ends,” he declared.

“We always saw a strong bull run afterwards.”
BTC/USD annotated chart with QQE Index. Source: Moustache/ Twitter

Moustache added that the past week’s losses were apt to give bears a false sense of security.

“We're not the same. It's buy the dip time,” he concluded.

Crypto sentiment cools to "neutral"

One potential bonus attached to the latest BTC price drop concerns wider crypto market sentiment.

Related: Bitcoin price crawls 2.5% off lows as weekly chart risks ‘bearish engulfing’

According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the mood among market participants is rapidly trending back to more reasonable levels.

Previously, Fear & Greed was at its highest levels since November 2021 and Bitcoin’s latest all-time highs. This, some warned at the time, might be unsustainable and lead to a swift market correction as traders became complacent and placed bets on upside continuing unchallenged.

With the comedown in full swing, the Index abandoned its “fear” zone altogether, switching to “neutral” and a score of 53/100 as of April 24.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

That score is around the lowest — or least “greedy” — since mid-March.

Magazine: Crypto regulation: Does SEC Chair Gary Gensler have the final say?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Analyst Issues Altcoin Warning, Says Black Swan Event Could Trigger ‘Very Last Shakeout’

Bitcoin price hits $28.5K on PCE data as macro ‘accumulation zone’ ends

Bitcoin is up $1,000 on the day as bets on $30,000 hitting soon reappear in advance of the BTC price monthly close.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered recent losses at the March 31 Wall Street open as traders looked for a strong monthly close.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

PCE delights risk assets as with BTC price up $1,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD heading to $28,556 on Bitstamp after the opening bell, up $1,000 from the day's lows.

The fresh gains followed encouraging macroeconomic data from the United States, with the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index modestly beating expectations in some areas.

"We are making progress in the fight against inflation," an official White House statement about the PCE numbers read.

"Today’s report shows annual inflation down by nearly 30 percent from this summer, against a backdrop of low unemployment and steady growth."

With inflation sticky yet seemingly not troubling markets, these appeared to increase bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes pausing in May, data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed.

Risk assets thus traded higher in anticipation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were both up around 0.5% higher at the time of writing.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Related: US enforcement agencies are turning up the heat on crypto-related crime

The mood around Bitcoin was equally buoyant, countering reservations among some traders who had warned of a significant retracement at or near the monthly close.

To the upside, data from monitoring resource Material Indicators showed the bulk of ask liquidity stacked at $29,000 prior to the PCE release.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

Popular trader Crypto Tony entertained the idea of Bitcoin hitting $30,000 in the short term, price having held a key support level at $27,700.

Analytics account Skew meanwhile argued that spot buying pressure needed to hold to preserve current levels above $28,000.

Bitcoin "leaving" buy the dip territory

Moving to higher timeframes, optimism was no less in evidence.

Related: BTC price to $22K? Watch these key levels into Bitcoin monthly close

"Bitcoin is leaving another accumulation zone!" Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, announced on the day.

"Bitcoin's 24-month Williams%R Oscillator is set to close above the 'oversold' threshold for March, which has marked an end to prior bear markets. Bullish long-term probabilities are improving, so long as we stay above the lower-bound."

Franzen had previously covered the evolving status quo for the Bitcoin Williams %R oscillator across various timeframes as the 2023 uptrend began.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Caleb Franzen/ Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Analyst Issues Altcoin Warning, Says Black Swan Event Could Trigger ‘Very Last Shakeout’

Gold Prices Expected to Soar in 2023: Experts Predict Record Highs for Precious Metal

Gold Prices Expected to Soar in 2023: Experts Predict Record Highs for Precious MetalGold is on the rise in 2023 and in the first week of the new year alone, the precious metal has jumped 2.36% against the U.S. dollar. Over the past 65 days, gold has soared 14.55% while silver has skyrocketed 22.31% against the greenback since Nov. 3, 2022. According to the head of metals strategy […]

Analyst Issues Altcoin Warning, Says Black Swan Event Could Trigger ‘Very Last Shakeout’

Professor Steve Hanke Says US Economy Was Flat Over the Last Year, but Stresses ‘It’s Going to Hit South’

Professor Steve Hanke Says US Economy Was Flat Over the Last Year, but Stresses ‘It’s Going to Hit South’Amid the chaotic economy, plagued with central bank tinkering, supply chain issues, and red-hot inflation, the professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Steve Hanke believes a “pretty big recession” will take place in 2023. Speaking in an interview on Oct. 28, Hanke said that he updated the probability of a U.S. recession to […]

Analyst Issues Altcoin Warning, Says Black Swan Event Could Trigger ‘Very Last Shakeout’

Fed’s Key Inflation Gauge Jumps 0.5% in September, America’s Rising Costs to ‘Punish’ Democrats

Fed’s Key Inflation Gauge Jumps 0.5% in September, America’s Rising Costs to ‘Punish’ DemocratsThe U.S. central bank’s key inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, increased by 0.5% in September, according to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Oct. 28. Meanwhile, markets expect with near-certainty that the Federal Reserve will codify its fourth consecutive rate hike by 75 basis points (bps) next month. While […]

Analyst Issues Altcoin Warning, Says Black Swan Event Could Trigger ‘Very Last Shakeout’