Brock Pierce and Tom Lee tip $200K BTC in 2022, despite missing the mark in 2021

December 30, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Brock Pierce and Tom Lee tip 0K BTC in 2022, despite missing the mark in 2021

Pierce and Lee believe that Bitcoin will continue its meteoric rise in price through 2022, but that's pretty much par for the course with those two.

Despite missing the mark with their $100,000 Bitcoin price predictions in 2021, Former Chief Strategy Officer at Block One Brock Pierce and co-founder of research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee are both tipping Bitcoin could hit $200,000 in 2022.

Essentially they are doubling down on their ambitious projections for 2022, even though Bitcoin's high water mark of $69,000 was set on Nov. 10 and BTC is currently trading at $46,270.

Tom Lee predicted $200,000 for BTC in the Dec. 23 Market Rebellion Roundtable discussion. He said in the discussion:

"So maybe Bitcoin is, you know, in that $200,000 range. I mean, I think that’s achievable and I know it sounds fantastical, but it’s very useful."

Lee previously maintained his 2021BTC price prediction of $100,000 as late as October in light of ProShares launching the first Bitcoin ETF in the USA.

At that time, he also predicted that Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETF) would attract at least $50 billion over the next 12 months. American Bitcoin ETFs currently hold about $1.5 billion in assets between Valkyrie, Van Eck, and ProShares’ offerings.

Pierce meanwhile told Fox Business on Dec. 29 that it was "conceivable that it could break $200,000 for a moment and come falling back again."

In a Jan. 22 article at the start of the year Pierce had cited $100,000 at the top of the range for 2021:

“There really are not many levels where I (anticipate) Bitcoin seeing resistance. We could get anywhere from $70,000 to $100,000 by the end of the year, but it will not be without volatility.”

In fairness to Pierce, the lower end of the range was indeed hit on November 10.

Popular anonymous Bitcoin price analyst Plan B has made his name with his price predictions and stock to flow model. On June 20, PlanB correctly predicted that BTC would hit $63,000 in October, but missed his $98,000 and $135,000 marks for November and December respectively as his “worst case scenario.”

PlanB has defended his predictions by claiming the accuracy of his statistical models to within one standard deviation. Although his price predictions were off, he said in a Dec. 25 tweet,

“$50K-$200K 1 standard deviation band feels wide. Some people think this makes S2F model invalid and not useful, but is it??"

Founder and CEO of Ballet Crypto Bobby Lee predicted that BTC would hit $300,000 this year back on Mar. 22 on CNBC’s Squawk Box. This was one of the most ambitious predictions to miss the mark this year.

Each public figure’s wrong predictions go to highlight the need to Do Your Own Research (DYOR) in cryptocurrency investing and to take price predictions as a bit of fun, rather than a serious guide to the future.

Here’s Why Bitcoin Will See Another 80% Crash Next ‘Crypto Winter,’ According to Quant Analyst PlanB

December 21, 2021 The Daily Hodl

Bitcoin fails ‘worst-case scenario’ monthly close for the first time, starts December sub-$57K

December 1, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

PlanB’s floor model misses its target in a historic first as fresh bear pressure mounts for Bitcoin price action.

Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hit the November closing price demanded by one of its best-known models — but its creator is not giving up.

In a Twitter post on Dec. 1, PlanB said that he would give his floor model one more month to prove itself.

BTC floor model on probation

BTC/USD should have rounded out November in a “worst-case scenario” of $98,000, but a combination of factors conspired to produce a much lower monthly close.

At close to $57,000, the pair firmly missed its target, this translating to the first such failure of PlanB’s floor model in Bitcoin’s history.

“Floor model first miss (after nailing Aug,Sep,Oct),” he wrote.

“No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y! Outlier/black swan? I will give Floor model 1 more month.”

$98K❌

Floor model first miss (after nailing Aug,Sep,Oct). No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y! Outlier/black swan? I will give Floor model 1 more month.

S2F model unaffected and on track to $100K.
Watch out for trolls confusing Floor and S2F model! https://t.co/tj6SSwSzKR
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 1, 2021

Most recently, the floor model correctly predicted the monthly closes for August, September and October, adding to hopes that six figures could enter in December.

As more traders and analysts accept the fact that the 2021 bull market may take longer than anticipated to reach its peak, PlanB reiterated that his other BTC price forecasting models remain intact.

Among them are the popular stock-to-flow-based tools, these calling for at least $100,000 as an average price between now and 2024. The expectation is still that Bitcoin will attract a six-figure price tag before the end of this year.

Unfortunate bull timing?

November’s close coincided with fresh downside pressure on Bitcoin.

Panic over coronavirus combined with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell admitting that inflation will not be “transitory” in nature.

Sentiment likewise took a hit, dropping from “neutral” to “fear” as per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

*Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me*

PlanB’s floor model, meanwhile, has its work cut out to remain a valid price guide — in just four weeks, it predicts a BTC/USD price of $135,000.

New ATH renews faith in PlanB’s prediction of $98K BTC by December

November 9, 2021 Coin Telegraph

New ATH renews faith in PlanB’s prediction of K BTC by December

All time high

Will Bitcoin break above six figures before Christmas? PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model suggests $100,000 BTC could be imminent.

Bitcoin (BTC) has broken into new all-time highs, with the asset last changing hands in the mid $67,000-range.

During the final hour of Nov. 8 UTC time, BTC pushed into uncharted prices, with bulls firmly taking control of the markets as price action retested Oct. 20’s previous high of roughly $67,000.

The milestone comes on a historic date for Bitcoin, with analysts noting that Bitcoin’s market cap pushed above $1 million for the first time on Nov. 8, 2010.

Crypto Twitter appears to be rejoicing over the new all-time high, with many onlookers appearing to read the price-high as restoring their faith in the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model from the pseudonymous analyst “PlanB” — which has gained significant popularity due to its eerie accuracy in predicting monthly closing prices for BTC.

The model measures the outstanding reserves of a given asset divided by its rate of annual production. PlanB first published their S2F model in March 2019 in a bid to quantify, measure, and predict the scarcity of Bitcoins, then estimating that Bitcoin would reach a market cap of $1 trillion after the May 2020 halving.

Using S2F, PlanB predicted with startling accuracy that Bitcoin would close August near $47,000 and end September near $43,000, while over-estimating October’s closing price by just 3%.

Looking ahead, S2F suggests that Bitcoin will close November above $98,000 and tag $135,000 by the end of the year, with many punters basing predictions that Bitcoin will trade in the six-figure price range before 2022 on PlanB’s outlook for the markets.

PlanB also pioneered the Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset (S2FX) model in April 2020, which seeks to predict how the BTC markets may respond to changes in S2F dynamics based on how gold and silver have performed historically.

Using the S2FX model, PlanB has speculated that this bull cycle could see Bitcoin trade for $288,000 next year, with the analyst stating the markets will need to see “some real fireworks in 2022” for the projection to play out.

As you know S2F model predicts $100K average for this halving period (and based on floor model we reach $100K this yr). But S2FX model predicts $288K average this cycle (we need some real fireworks in 2022 for that). Let's see where this 2nd leg of the bull market will take us pic.twitter.com/ttiNT5yMKe
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 8, 2021

A recent Twitter poll from PlanB found that of 242,000 respondents, 39.8% believe Bitcoin will top out above $100,000 by Christmas, while 31.4% expect BTC to be trading for $288,000, and 23.8% anticipate the markets will fail to break above six-figures by Dec. 25.

Here’s When Bitcoin Could Overtake Gold and Real Estate, According to Quant Analyst PlanB

November 8, 2021 The Daily Hodl

Bitcoin bull market ‘2nd leg has started,’ says BTC price model creator

October 26, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The popular prediction model has been remarkably accurate in the past when it comes to forecasting Bitcoin's bearish and bullish cycles against its rising scarcity.

Bitcoin (BTC) marking a new high of $67,000 last week has opened the possibility to hit $100,000 by the end of this year.

According to PlanB, the creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) model, called Bitcoin's price retracement from the $60,000-level the "2nd leg" of what appeared like a long-term bull market.

#bitcoin bull market, 2nd leg has started pic.twitter.com/N9H2QF7SDe
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 26, 2021

In doing so, the pseudonymous analyst cited S2F that anticipates Bitcoin to continue its leg higher and reach $100,000-135,000 by the end of this year.

The price projection model insists that Bitcoin's value would keep on growing at least until $288,000 a token due to "halving," an event that takes place every four years reducing BTC's issuance rate by half against its 21 million supply cap.

*Bitcoin after 2012, 2016, and 2020 halving. Source: PlanB*

Notably, Bitcoin underwent three halvings so far in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

Each event decreased the cryptocurrency's new supply rate by 50%, which was followed by notable increases in BTC price. For instance, the first two halvings prompted the BTC price to rise by over 10,000% and 2,960%, respectively.

The third halving caused the price to jump from $8,787 to as high as $66,999, a 667.50% increase. So far, S2F has been largely accurate in predicting Bitcoin's price trajectory, as shown in the chart below, leaving bulls with higher hopes that Bitcoin's post-halving rally would have its price cross the $100,000-mark.

*Bitcoin S2F as of Oct. 26. Source: PlanB*

PlanB noted earlier this year that Bitcoin would reach $98,000 by November and $135,000 by December of this year, adding that the only thing that would stop the cryptocurrency from hitting a six-digit value is "a black swan event" that the market has not seen in the last decade.

An 80% crash later

Despite the high price projections, Bitcoin should still see big corrections in the future. PlanB thinks the next crash would wipe at least 80% value off Bitcoin's market cap, based on the same S2F model.

"Everybody hopes for the supercycle or the 'hyperbitcoinization' to start right now and that we do not have a big crash after next all-time highs," the analyst told Unchained, adding.

"As much as I would hope that we don’t see that crash, I think we will. I think we’ll be managed by greed right now and fear later on… and see another minus 80% after we top out at a couple of hundred thousand dollars.”

*BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

But not everyone thinks the next correction will be as dramatic as the previous ones. Dan Morehead, the CEO of Pantera Capital, said mid-October that the next Bitcoin price drop would be less than 80%, citing a consistent drop in selling sentiment after each halving cycle.

Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) established a new record high at around $67,000 following a 53% rally in October so far. But the new highs prompted profit-taking among traders, resulting in retests of the $60,000 support level.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin bulls target prices above $58K ahead of Friday’s $820M options expiry

October 13, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin bulls target prices above K ahead of Friday’s 0M options expiry

BTC Options

$820 million in BTC options expire on Oct. 15, and data signals that bulls are set to celebrate another positive week.

Everyone is talking about a six-figure Bitcoin (BTC) price now that the digital asset has broken out of its multi-month downtrend and confirmed that a bullish trend is in play.

If Bitcoin happens to enter a parabolic move toward $110,000, that would finally match PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model prediction. According to the pseudonymous analyst , the scarcity and valuation of gold and other precious metals and “Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crackdown” are a few of the factors responsible for the past five months of 50% or higher inaccuracy in the model.

Bulls’ hopes mostly cling to an exchange-traded fund being approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Currently, there are multiple requests pending review between Oct. 18 and Nov. 1, but the regulator could postpone its final decision.

Oct. 15’s $830 million options expiry was largely impacted by the 20% price rally initiated on Oct. 4, which most likely eliminated 92% of the put (sell) options.

*Bitcoin price on Coinbase in USD. Source: TradingView*

The aftermath of China’s mining crackdown was an important event that might have fueled investor sentiment, and research shows the U.S. accounting for 35.4% of the Bitcoin hash rate.

Furthermore, as Cointelegraph reported, the U.S. states of Texas and Ohio are also expected to receive additional large-scale Bitcoin mining centers, which will effectively boost the U.S. crypto market share even higher.

The Oct. 8 expiry was profitable for bulls

Following last week’s $370 million estimated net profit from the BTC options expiry, bulls had more firepower, and this is evident in this Friday’s $820 million expiry. This advantage explains why the call (buy) options open interest is 43% larger than the neutral-to-bearish put options.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 15. Source: Bybt*

As the above data shows, bears placed $335 million in bets for Friday’s expiry, but it appears that they were caught by surprise, as 92% of the put (sell) options are likely to become worthless.

In other words, if Bitcoin remains above $56,000 on Oct. 15, only $36 million worth of neutral-to-bearish put options will be activated on Friday’s 8:00 am UTC expiry.

Bulls have a reason to push BTC price above $58,000

Below are the four likeliest scenarios for Oct. 15’s expiry. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:

Between $52,000 and $54,000: 3,140 calls vs. 2,110 puts. The net result is $55 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
Between $54,000 and $56,000: 3,700 calls vs. 1,240 puts. The net result is $130 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
Between $56,000 and $58,000: 4,850 calls vs. 680 puts. The net result is $235 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
Above $58,000: 6,230 calls vs. 190 puts. The net result is complete dominance, with bulls profiting $350 million.

This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish bets and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, investors might have used a more complex strategy that typically involves different expiry dates.

Bears need a 7% price correction to reduce their loss

In every scenario, bulls have absolute control of this Friday’s expiry, and there are a handful of reasons for them to keep the price above $56,000. On the other hand, bears need a 7% negative move below $54,000 to avoid a loss of $235 million or higher.

Nevertheless, traders must consider that during bull runs, the amount of effort a seller needs to pressure the price is immense and usually ineffective. Analytics point to a considerable advantage from call (buy) options, fueling even more bullish bets next week.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

PlanB Unveils Bitcoin Price Prediction for End of 2021, Forecasts When Current Crypto Cycle Will Collapse

October 12, 2021 The Daily Hodl

Analyst nails Bitcoin monthly close 2 months running — his October target is $63K

October 1, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin price action exactly conforms to PlanB's predictions for a second time, and if history repeats itself, BTC/USD should be at $63,000 by the end of the month.

Bitcoin (BTC) was keen to retain $44,000 on Oct. 1 as the monthly close sparked a late show of strength.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

BTC monthly close matches PlanB prediction

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it first returned to the $44,000 mark Thursday, then test lower levels before heading even higher.

While still not tackling resistance at $45,000 and higher, Bitcoin did not disappoint with its end-of-month performance, this almost exactly matching predictions from stock-to-flow model creator PlanB for a second month running.

Aug>47k✅
Sep>43k✅
Next targets: Oct>63k, Nov>98k, Dec>135k pic.twitter.com/C45nfQkQSC
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 1, 2021

With $63,000 now planned for October, expectations were high for Bitcoin to make up for lost ground going into Q4.

"September was bad. October is great. November is great. December is great," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized, telling Twitter followers to "buy the f*cking dip."

Van de Poppe highlighted historical performance across various months each year, something which Cointelegraph previously noted all but consigned September to be a "boring" 30 days.

Others, however, were more cautious. In its latest market update, crypto trading firm QCP Capital said that it would remain cautious in its approach to the market as a whole.

"Overall, we struggle to find any directional conviction amidst the macro and market crosswinds. Our strategy going into Q4 is to remain fairly neutral and nimble," executives summarized.

Macro factors at play were China's reiteration of its crypto crackdown and two United States issues: legislation and the potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

On Friday, a vote on the government's infrastructure bill, originally slated to happen Monday, was again delayed after a shutdown later this month was averted in a separate vote.

Ethereum returns to $3,000

Altcoins meanwhile saw another 24 hours of modest to flat moves, again headed by Binance Coin (BNB) on 6% daily gains.

All of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap were in the green at the time of writing, however, marking a refreshing contrast to recent action.

Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin, traded above $3,000 on the back of 3% returns.

*ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

PlanB Maintains $100K Bitcoin Prediction, Reveals When His Model Would Be Invalidated

August 14, 2021 The Daily Hodl

planb