Bitcoin price loses steam, but futures markets forecast upside above $70K

May 14, 2024 Coin Telegraph

BTC price clears $41K as Bitcoin digests US macro data on FED FOMC day

December 13, 2023 Coin Telegraph

BTC price targets $27K as Bitcoin bulls shrug at PPI inflation surprise

September 14, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

BTC price gets a fresh boost from market calm over Fed interest rate policy, as Bitcoin traders eye further gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed higher into the Sep. 14 Wall Street open despite fresh macro data showing resurgent United States inflation.

*BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin gains while U.S. PPI beats forecast

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC price action as it made new September highs, topping out at $26,762.

Bitcoin built on strength seen after the previous daily close, ignoring the implications of the U.S. inflation rebound as confirmed by both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) August prints.

The latter came in at 1.6% year-on-year against market expectations of 1.3%.

Crypto nonetheless joined traditional markets in rejecting the idea that U.S. macro policy might stay more restrictive for longer in order to tame inflation.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there was practically no consensus over the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again later in the month. On the contrary, odds of a rate hike pause stood at 97% at the time of writing.

*Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group*

The disconnect between the data and market sentiment was underlined by a decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike rates by 0.25% on the day.

“This is their 10th consecutive rate hike putting rates at 4.5%, their highest since 2001,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a reaction on X (formerly Twitter).

“The ECB also cut all their growth forecasts through 2025. The fight against inflation is far from over.”

Kobeissi added that although the ECB had signalled that the latest hike could be the last in the current cycle, futures markets were still 30% sure of continuation.

“Central banks around the world are bracing for a LONG pause with elevated rates,” it concluded.

BTC price predictions pass $27,000

Eyeing the state of play on Bitcoin, market participants were hopeful that another leg up would take BTC/USD to $27,000.

#Bitcoin Knocking on the door of the $26.4K level again.

It's key to break this level to leave this post grayscale dump range and attempt at filling the inefficiency up to ~$27K. https://t.co/yY0tiWT58w pic.twitter.com/gkTLNKP5gB
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) September 14, 2023

“Bitcoin still acting out the Power of Three setup -- pushing into the local resistance,” popular trader Jelle told X subscribers in part of the day’s analysis.

“Break above $26,400 and I got my eyes on $27,600 next.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Jelle/X*

More conservative on the outlook for BTC price strength was trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who eyed an ongoing repeat of a chart fractal from 2021 — Bitcoin’s latest all-time high.

“Bitcoin bounces from ~$26,000. And as long as $26k holds as support, Phase A-B of the fractal could be in play,” he wrote alongside explanatory charts.

“But we've seen this fractal occur in 2019 and 2021 as well. A relief rally followed by rejection could reveal a weakening support at $26k.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X*

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

BTC price due for $31K as analyst says ‘disinflation’ boosting Bitcoin

July 13, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin and crypto markets seem ready to put in a "major move," commentary concludes, as BTC price action coils up below $31,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) looked set to challenge range highs on July 13 as fresh macroeconomic data boosted risk asset bulls.

PPI shows U.S. inflation retreating beyond expectations

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed the market as the BTC price focus shifted above $30,500.

PPI inflation leads CPI by a few months... and today's PPI numbers have YoY running at +0.24%

Almost in deflation! Fed pivot anyone? https://t.co/oM4ck5Vgwy pic.twitter.com/Xl78ohLzOM
— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) July 13, 2023

United States Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers released on the day again came in below expectations, aiding rapidly abating inflation forecasts.

With two weeks to go until the Federal Reserve decided on interest rate policy, however, markets themselves remained convinced that another hike would come next — despite the PPI and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the day prior.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, bets on a 0.25% hike stood at almost 95% at the time of writing.

“Quite literally, everything is pointing to more disinflation in the months & quarters ahead (even if energy rallies from here). Core CPI is going to decelerate so fast, people will be shocked,” Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, wrote in part of follow-up.

Franzen argued that declining inflation had directly influenced the BTC price rebound throughout 2023.

“Notice how equities are ripping this year? Notice how Bitcoin is up +86% YTD? Asset prices are multi-variate, but a lot of the upward momentum has been from disinflation,” he explained.

Analyst gives $38,000 Bitcoin breakout target

On Bitcoin itself, the mood was more optimistic.

Alongside PPI came news that Europe would see its first Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund, or ETF, launching this year.

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, hoped that the time would soon come for a breakout.

“Bitcoin holds $30,200 and most likely will start looking at range high again,” he said about overnight BTC price action.

“Another test and we'll have a swift breakout to $38K.”

An additional Twitter post on the day gave a downside target of $29,300 should the $30,000 support fail to continue holding.

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/Twitter*

Others, including popular trader Skew, suggested that while the range remained stubbornly in place, a return to trend was not far away.

$BTC 4H
Two weeks later, still chopping here lol

However, price nicely grinding on 4H / 1D EMAs

Stoch reset / RSI reset

Market seems ready for major move https://t.co/RD3ffAKQag pic.twitter.com/eHCBPflsm1
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) July 13, 2023

Fellow trader Jelle meanwhile eyed a triangle formation immediately below "key" $31,000 resistance.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

Magazine: Should you ‘orange pill’ children? The case for Bitcoin kids books

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin-friendly PPI data boosts bulls as Ether price fights for $2K

April 13, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin fails to react to a positive PPI print, while Ether gets busy defending the $2,000 mark which it reclaimed for the first time in eight months.

Bitcoin (BTC) preserved $30,000 support at the April 12 Wall Street open as more United States macroeconomic data boosted bulls.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

PPI hints further inflation drops to come

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering near $30,250 on Bitstamp.

Amid a slowdown in volatility, U.S. Producer Price Inflation (PPI) data provided a timely hint that inflation was slowing faster than expected.

Headline PPI came in at 2.7% year-on-year versus market expectations of 3% — an encouraging result for risk assets.

US March PPI fell 0.5% MoM, below estimate of 0%, in another sign that US #inflation may have peaked. pic.twitter.com/mfI7ab03ev
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) April 13, 2023

Financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter was among those noting that the month-on-month drop in PPI values was the largest since the peak in March 2022.

“The overall PPI inflation rate has fallen from 11.3% to 2.7% since June 2022, less than 1 year ago. There also has not been a monthly increase in PPI inflation since June 2022,” it added.

Reacting, market commentator Tedtalksmacro suggested that the numbers would also provide a snowball effect for another key inflation metric, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the March print for which also beat prognoses.

“Indicative of further falls in CPI/PCE in coming months,” he summarized in comments about the PPI result.

Inflation subsiding faster has traditionally buoyed cryptoasset performance as it raises hopes that U.S. economic policy will become less restrictive.

A key event for market participants now will be the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate change, the decision on which is due in May.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, expectations still favored a further rate hike of 0.25%, with PPI notably doing little to change the mood.

Bitcoin, Ether struggle at key levels

While holding $30,000 as support, meanwhile, Bitcoin failed to convince everyone that its ten-month peak would stay.

Monitoring resource Material Indicators warned of a bearish signal on its proprietary trading tools, within a broader bullish context.

Both Trend Precognition algos are showing red on the BTC Daily chart. Signals are tentative, but both algos on the same candle has historically had a high probability of accuracy so these are the signals I'll often act early on. Of course PPI coming at 8:30am might make things… pic.twitter.com/rKguVIeS5d
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) April 13, 2023

A snapshot of buy and sell levels on the Binance order book prior to PPI meanwhile showed the strongest resistance parked at $30,500.

“Near range bid liquidity may limit the downside volatility, but this is the #WildWest of #Crypto so anything goes. Watch for rugs,” Material Indicators wrote in part of accompanying comments.

*BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter*

As Cointelegraph reported, it was largest altcoin Ether (ETH) stealing the limelight on the day, passing $2,000 for the first time since August last year.

*ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin sees new 4-month high as US PPI, retail data posts ‘big misses’

January 18, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

A further boost to crypto markets precedes the Wall Street open, but order books are warning of "fading" upside.

Bitcoin (BTC) set yet another multi-month high before the Jan. 18 Wall Street open as United States macroeconomic data fell far wide of expectations.

*BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

U.S. PPI numbers fall wide of the mark

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to $21,646 on Bitstamp.

A subsequent correction saw the pair moving around $21,400 at the time of writing, with U.S. stocks reacting to surprise data surrounding economic activity in December.

Specifically, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed cost rises cooling faster than consensus predicted, with retail sales also declining beyond estimates.

“PPI comes in at 6.2%, while expectation was 6.8%. Core PPI comes in at 5.5%, while expectation was 5.7%,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe wrote in part of ongoing Twitter updates.

“Retail sales at -1.1%, while -0.8% was expected. Core retail sales at -1.1%, while -0.4% was expected. Big misses.”

Bitcoin showed bullishness around the numbers, these potentially signaling less of a need for further aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve going forward.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on the Bank of Japan itself not to make already very loose policy more restrictive, in contrast to the Fed and other major central banks.

An already flagging U.S. dollar index (DXY) thus extended a retracement which began with the Japan news as PPI hit, falling to 101.52, its lowest since late May last year.

*U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView*

Analysis sees "momentum fadin" on BTC chart

BTC/USD last traded at the day’s high in mid-September.

As ever, there were plenty of nerves visible among traders despite the strong performance, with analytics resource Material Indicators repeating warnings over uptrend weakness.

“Waking up to the same game in the BTC chart,” it wrote on the day, referencing the status quo on the Binance order book.

“Declining volume makes me think momentum is fading, and the fact that some bids were removed is concerning. Watching to see if bid liquidity continues to replenish and move up. If not, the 21-Week Moving Average must hold.”

More optimistic was popular commentator Bloodgood, who disputed others’ bearish predictions of a drop to $12,000 for BTC/USD in 2023.

Analyzing the longer-timeframe picture, he argued that the two-year lows seen in Q4 constituted a “failed breakdown.”

“Failed breakdowns usually lead to strong reversals,” he added on an accompanying chart with a key support zone at around $19,000.

“$12k is not in play as long as we stay above the blue line. Get another weekly candle to close above and we go higher.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Bloodgood/ Twitter*

A snapshot of long and short positions by Filbfilb, co-founder of trading firm Decentrader, was similarly heartening.

"The liquidity picture looks a lot different now for BTCUSD. More bears sweating than bulls at this point," he tweeted.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Crypto Analyst Michaël Van De Poppe Eyes Rallies for Ethereum, Litecoin and One ETH Rival – Here Are His Targets

December 9, 2022 The Daily Hodl

BTC price tests $17K on PPI as Bitcoin analysts eye CPI, FOMC catalysts

December 9, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin begins to deal with fresh U.S. macro cues as BTC price steadily holds $17,000 support.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell on the Dec. 9 Wall Street open as United States economic data appeared to disappoint markets.

Attention turns to Bitcoin vs. CPI "big trigger"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to come closer to $17,000 after passing the level overnight.

The pair reacted badly to U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which despite being above expectations still beat the readout from the month prior.

“Bit of an over reaction towards PPI, which has been dropping significantly from last month, but less than expected,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, responded.

Van de Poppe, like others, noted that the crux of macro cues would come next week in the form of Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for November.

“CPI next week is the big trigger, just like it was earlier this month,” he added.

CPI could be a seminal point, trading firm QCP Capital continued, as if it were to continue its downward trend, markets may get an even stronger conviction over lower inflation greeting the new year.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting days later, where policymakers decide on interest rate hikes, should add fuel to the fire.

“Tuesday’s CPI will yet again be ‘the most important CPI release ever’, this time because the market has set it up to be with its epic 2-month short squeeze rally,” QCP wrote in a market update on the day.

“At the FOMC, Fed members will release their updated projections of inflation and interest rates. Markets will focus on where they forecast inflation next year, as well as where they see rates in 2023 and 2024. Both these events are the last remaining hurdles for the rally into year-end.”

Analysts acknowledged that if CPI were to disappoint, it would potentially “invalidate” the stocks rally so far. A 50-basis-point rate hike had a 77% probability of occurring, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

U.S. dollar catches a break

U.S. equities were flat after the first hour's trading, with PPI failing to make a significant dent in performance.

For macro economist and stocks analyst James Choi, this was to be expected, given that the Fed was already considering decreasing the pace of its rate hikes.

"The FED already pivoted its course. Today's PPI won't make a dent to Powell's plan. It's 50bp next week, then that's it," he forecast, also saying that his calculations predicted a "much, much lower" CPI reading than many believed.

Meanwhile, U.S. dollar strength also simmered, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) attempting to make up for the previous day's lost ground on the back of PPI.

*U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin price hits $17K on US PPI as trader warns of ‘final capitulation’

November 15, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Plenty of uncertainty about the future remains for the price of Bitcoin amid fresh signs that U.S. inflation is slowing.

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked to $17,000 at the Nov. 15 Wall Street open as fresh United States economic data continued to show inflation cooling.

“Good” PPI boosts risk assets

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it came closer to multi-day highs.

Volatility had returned an hour before the open as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) came in below expectations.

Core PPI was unchanged month-on-month, with the PPI overall up 0.2% versus the 0.4% forecast. Year-on-year PPI was 8% versus the 8.3% forecast.

The data, already in stark contrast to last month’s PPI, follows on from October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) readout last week, this also showing that price increases in the U.S. were slowing.

An ostensibly good sign for crypto along with risk assets, lower numbers theoretically increase the likelihood of an earlier pivot in hawkish economic policy from the Federal Reserve.

“Good CPI & Good PPI,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, reacted.

Others were more suspicious of the results in light of such aggressive quantitative tightening (QT) measures.

“The PPI is the inflation number Fed uses to make decisions,” popular analyst Venturefounder wrote in part of a Twitter analysis.

“Market rallies on the news, inflation may have peaked but I think the most alarming part is after record QT for almost a year the PPI is still at 8%.”

*U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) chart. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics*

Stocks naturally appreciated the latest economic changes, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index up 1.7% and 2.4%, respectively, at the open.

The already precarious U.S. dollar index (DXY), meanwhile, felt the pressure, briefly dropping below 105.5 to its lowest levels since mid-August.

Bullish divergences meet the “final capitulation” risk

For Bitcoin, optimism was still hard to find in analytical circles.

Nonetheless, for trader and analyst Seth, a fresh bullish divergence on the weekly chart was something to feel confident about.

“Bears took credit for the FTX Blackswan. Not many knew 2nd largest Exchange was going Bankrupt!” accompanying Twitter comments stated.

Bleaker news came from fellow analyst Matthew Hyland, whose previous warning of a bearish chart cross came true.

“The previous two crosses resulted in -46% and -57% moves AFTER the cross was confirmed,” he reiterated about the three-day chart’s moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator.

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/Twitter*

Il Capo of Crypto, still eyeing a deeper macro low, meanwhile, added that the “final capitulation is likely.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

BTC price wobbles on US PPI as Bitcoin futures open interest hits peak

October 12, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest hits 660,000 BTC despite volatility remaining comparatively flat.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw flash volatility into the Oct. 12 Wall Street open as United States economic data began to move markets.

Analyst: PPI volatility a taste of things to come

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping abruptly below $19,000 as Producer Price Index numbers came in above expectations.

A hint that inflation is not abating as quickly as the Federal Reserve might expect PPI’s release an hour before the open saw local lows of $18,967.

The losses disappeared as quickly as they came, however, and at the time of writing, Bitcoin had already recovered above $19,000.

“Massive volatility at this number of PPI. At least inflation not acceleration,” Michaël van de Poppe, co-founder and CEO of trading platform Eight, wrote in part of a Twitter reaction.

“But, tomorrow, during CPI, the volatility will be higher. Tonight during FOMC minutes as well.”

Van de Poppe advised traders to stay away from leverage during the upcoming macro events, with CPI, in particular, tipped to provide some characteristic fakeouts both before and after release.

Bitcoin’s trading range nonetheless remained narrow, and for some market participants, there was no need to exploit the comparative small moves on the market.

In his latest update on BTC/USD trading on Oct. 11, popular trader Il Capo of Crypto described the setup as “simple.”

“Price has been ranging between 19k and 20500 for 3 weeks,” he summarized.

“If you flip flop randomly during the range, while losing money unnecessarily, that means you have no patience. Main scenario is exactly the same. 21k first, then new lows (14k–16k).”

A trip to those new macro lows would spell deep trouble for derivatives traders participating in the largest-ever buildup of open interest in Bitcoin futures ever recorded.

According to on-chain analytics resource Glassnode, the tally stood at 660,000 BTC.

“Bitcoin futures open interest at an all time high and realized volatility near all time lows. Quite the combo,” William Clemente, co-founder of digital asset research and trading firm Reflexivity Research, commented.

*Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: Glassnode*

DXY steadies but yen bleeds lower

After the open, meanwhile, U.S. equities stemmed losses after initially sinking.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) continued its latest consolidation phase, lingering near 113.3 after failing to clear 113.5 on the day.

Still more than a full point clear of recent twenty-year highs, DXY provided no new headwinds for risk assets.

Dollar strength was nonetheless providing kindling for crises elsewhere, however, as the Japanese yen returned to levels not seen since the 1990s.

Despite the central bank's efforts to prop up the currency, USD/JPY erased those gains through October, now facing new multi-decade records.

"Reacquaint yourself with the concept of 'intervention half-life,'" financial researcher Nick Bhatia responded.

"We will see it in UK yields, USDJPY Central bank freaks out, intervenes, and arb traders fade it until the central bank is forced to bring more."

PPI

Bitcoin gains while U.S. PPI beats forecast

BTC price predictions pass $27,000

PPI shows U.S. inflation retreating beyond expectations

Analyst gives $38,000 Bitcoin breakout target

PPI hints further inflation drops to come

Bitcoin, Ether struggle at key levels

U.S. PPI numbers fall wide of the mark

Analysis sees "momentum fadin" on BTC chart

Attention turns to Bitcoin vs. CPI "big trigger"

U.S. dollar catches a break

“Good” PPI boosts risk assets

Bullish divergences meet the “final capitulation” risk

Analyst: PPI volatility a taste of things to come

DXY steadies but yen bleeds lower

Share this video